Fantasy Football Tight End Trends For Week 3 - Reading Between The Lines

September 19, 2024

Who should I start at tight end for fantasy football in Week 3 of 2024? Rob deciphers the tight end position and discusses tight end breakouts, sleepers, busts.

Going into the season, the tight end position looked deeper than ever. There was Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, Kyle Pitts, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, and, oh boy! Only two of those players are averaging more than seven half-PPR PPG through two weeks. Four of them aren’t even averaging five half-PPR PPG.

To say that the tight end position has gotten off to a rough start would be the understatement of the year thus far. Isaiah Likely has the same total points as Andrews, LaPorta, and Kincaid. Brenton Strange, the backup tight end for Jacksonville, has more points than Kincaid and Kelce, and he didn’t even catch a pass in Week 1.

It has been that bad. This has left a lot of fantasy managers reeling, looking for answers, and searching desperately for alternatives. With tight ends, however, much of the production can be faulty. We’ll be looking past the box score to determine which tight ends you should target and which ones you should ignore.

Mike Gesicki, Cincinnati Bengals

It’s hard to ignore any tight end currently leading their team in targets, especially when that team has Ja'Marr Chase, but that’s exactly what Gesicki has done. He has at least three catches and four targets in both games thus far this season.

This past weekend, Gesicki had a bit of a coming out party (if you can call it that for a 28-year-old), finishing with nine targets, seven receptions, 91 yards, and 12.6 half-PPR points. That kind of stat line is going to catch some attention. After all, only seven total tight ends have scored more than 12.6 half-PPR points on the season.

Which TEs are coaches designing plays for?

TE leaders in first-read target share (per @FantasyPtsData):

Trey McBride - 28%
Brock Bowers - 27%
Evan Engram - 25%
Hunter Henry - 25%
Mike Gesicki - 25%

— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) September 16, 2024

Can we trust Gesicki, though? The answer is no, not yet. Gesicki played fewer snaps this past weekend than Drew Sample and Erick All Jr. Through two weeks, his route participation is still not over 50%. He ran a route on 51% of the pass attempts this past weekend, being targeted on almost half of them.

That kind of production on this kind of workload will not continue. However, he has been incredibly effective with his opportunities, sporting a 2.95-yard-per-route run average. One of two things is going to happen here. Either Gesicki will see his snaps and routes increase due to his efficiency, or his box score numbers, the ones fantasy managers care about, will decrease.

If you need a tight end, it doesn’t hurt to add him and see his snap share and route participation rate after Week 3 following that big Week 2 performance. If it doesn’t continue going up, he can probably be dropped again at that point.

The other factor that will complicate things is the eventual return of Tee Higgins, who will eat into the tight end target share. Last week, Sample, All, and Gesicki had 16 combined targets. That tight end volume won’t continue once Higgins is back and healthy. You can add Gesicki as a speculative addition, but until we see his routes increase, it will be challenging to trust him in your lineups.

Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders

Kliff Kingsbury is doing it again. He’s ruining another NFL team’s passing game. He has once again brought his stoic, horizontal raid to Washington, and to no one’s surprise, the results have been dreadful. The only person this ever seems to work out for is Zach Ertz.

Let’s be clear about who Ertz is. He’s a floor play. He’s a guy who is safe for four to nine half-PPR points on any given. Based on his team’s passing success, touchdowns will be few and far in between. When he does score a touchdown, his ceiling is 15. Tops.

While we can crap on Ertz’s nonexistent ceiling, the reality is, how many tight ends do have a ceiling? If the vast majority of these are not ceiling plays, there can be value in Ertz’s solid floor of three to five weekly catches.

Ertz has a 72% route participation rate and an impressive 15.1% target share. He’s been relatively efficient and currently has a 1.76-yard-per-route run average. He’s been Jayden Daniels’ first read 20% of the time and is Washington’s second-best pass-catcher right now, behind Terry McLaurin.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Should fantasy managers be worried about Kincaid? Yeah, it’s fair to be concerned about Kincaid moving forward. His 76% route participation isn’t inadequate, but it isn’t nearly as high as we expected it to be based on his preseason ADP. He may have been injured last week because he missed most of the series, but it’s still worth mentioning.

The bigger concerns are his 11.9% target share and his negative three air yards for the season. His average depth of target for the year is -1.2. That is a huge problem. Those are legitimate concerns.

Another problem has been the play-calling and Joe Brady. In the recent past, Josh Allen and the Bills have been a pass-happy offense. Through two games, the Bills have a 41.5% pass rate. They have just 42 pass attempts to 59 rushing attempts, another major problem.

#Bills at a -5% pass rate over expected through 2 weeks.

They were at -4% over the final seven games of last season under OC Joe Brady.

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 17, 2024

Kincaid shouldn’t be benched or anything of the sort, but if he is to meet preseason expectations, he needs the Bills to start throwing the ball more. He also needs to start earning more targets, specifically further downfield. Otherwise, he’s going to be a bust this year.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Like Gesicki, Henry flashed in Week 2 and finished with 12 targets, eight receptions, 109 yards, and 14.9 half-PPR points. Unlike Gesicki, Henry has the utilization fantasy managers need to see to believe that the production, at least solid production, even if it’s not as good as last week, could continue.

Henry has an 86.9% route participation rate, which is considered elite. Considering the Patriots will not pass the ball very much, he needs that number to be as high as it is. More importantly, Henry sports a 27.5% target share and a 26.4% target rate.

Tight End Usage Report

snap share on passing plays (what other sites call a "route") vs. route share ("real" routes) vs. team target share

double weighting for target share pic.twitter.com/rIIoW4sUkh

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) September 17, 2024

Due to the lack of talent and dependability at receiver, Henry seems to have settled in as Jacoby Brissett’s most trusted pass-catcher. That could change as second-rounder Ja'Lynn Polk gets more comfortable with the NFL speed, but right now, that distinction belongs to the veteran tight end.

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has a long history of utilizing the tight end position in his passing attack. He routinely finishes near the top of the league in tight end screens. That’s been no different for Henry and New England, and it will help give Henry a dependable floor.

The Patriots offense does not present a lot of touchdown opportunities. Still, Henry’s strong ability to beat man-to-man coverage and his size should make him a primary target on the occasions the team ventures into the red zone. He’s firmly on the TE2 radar and is a great streaming option in plus matchups.

Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens

Our current TE1 came crashing back to reality after his 21.6 half-PPR point performance in Week 1 against the Chiefs. In Week 2, his targets dropped from 12 to three, his receptions fell from nine to two, and his yards catered from 111 to 26.

#Ravens TE situation normalized yesterday in terms of usage vs. targets:

SNAPS (out of 65)
1. Mark Andrews 41
2. Isaiah Likely 32
3. Charlie Kolar 14

ROUTES (out of 37 Lamar dropbacks)
1. Mark Andrews 27
2. Isaiah Likely 18
3. Charlie Kolar 2

TARGET SHARE
1. Mark Andrews 14.7%… https://t.co/v1HMj3ka8s

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 16, 2024

His Week 1 performance looked faulty, similar to Gesicki’s this past weekend. Likely only played on 66% of the snaps in Week 1 and finished with a 62% route participation rate. Getting targeted 12 times on 26 routes is simply unsustainable.

Based on his utilization, his production was almost guaranteed to decrease unless his utilization increased. That didn’t happen in Week 2. His snap share and route participation rate both dropped to around 50%. That doesn't mean that Likely can't or won't be a quality fantasy football tight end. It just means he's not going to be a weekly starter.

Likely can remain on fantasy rosters, but he should only be trusted in matchups where Baltimore is expected to be playing from behind or when there's a high implied total. Even in those situations, he becomes more of a solid start than a set-it-and-forget-it tight end.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

What is going on with last year's No. 1 tight end? Jameson Williams's ascension as a viable No. 2 target for Jared Goff has hurt LaPorta's fantasy value. Last year, LaPorta was one of Goff's first-read targets on 20% of his throws. This year, that number is down to 8.6%. Meanwhile, Williams is currently at 34.5%, higher than even Amon-Ra St. Brown's rate.

DETROIT LIONS
Weeks 1+2 receiving breakdown@FantasyPtsData Expected points:

WR5 - Jameson Williams
WR6 - Amon-Ra St. Brown
TE21 - Sam LaPorta

In 2023, St. Brown had a 35% first-read target rate and LaPorta's was 20%. The Jamo breakout has shifted things in a big way so far. pic.twitter.com/iiaaX6ZrO2

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 18, 2024

LaPorta has just eight targets on the season, which ranks a distant fourth to Williams, St. Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs. LaPorta ran hot on touchdowns last year. He scored eight red zone touchdowns on 11 targets.

That scoring rate was always destined to go down, but the number of targets has also decreased. As you can see from the tweet above, his volume amounts to just TE21 in terms of expected half-PPR points. He still needs to be in lineups on a weekly basis, but his ceiling has decreased.

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