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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 4 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football. Last week featured some absolute stud performances on defense combined with an outlandish day on offense from Miami. There weren't as many spike weeks, but there were a lot of unsung heroes. Also, we have our first London game of the season, so make sure your lineup is ready to go before kickoff on Sunday morning at 9:30 AM EST.
For anyone new to the column, each week we'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate and the Monday Night Football game, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Additionally, you'll notice there are players that are obvious starts included in the "matchups we love" section in the interest of making sure everyone is covered. Furthermore, there will be times when one wide receiver or running back is listed individually but their teammates are included as part of the write-up. I also want to express my gratitude for some of the great resources that help me write this article each week such as RotoBaller's player pages, Pro Football Focus, Rotovitz, FTN Fantasy, Pro Football Reference, NFL Next Gen Stats, DraftKings Sportsbook, and Fantasy Points, along with all of you for reading this article.
There is also a separate article for the Thursday Night Football game each week, so be sure to read that. Hopefully, you had some players from that Miami offense or the passing extravaganza in Minnesota. Regardless of who you've got on your squad, we'll make sure you're ready to roll in Week 4! If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter/X @JoshCon, and feel free to ask away. Let's dive into the matchups.
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Matchups Analysis - 9:30 AM ET London Game
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: Jaguars -3.0
Implied Total: Falcons (20) vs. Jaguars (23)
Pace: Falcons (11th) vs. Jaguars (12th)
Falcons Off. DVOA: -23.8% Pass (28th), 0.6% Rush (9th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (22nd), -10.5% Rush (22nd)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 20.0% Pass (22nd), -17.0% Rush (10th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 23.0% Pass (25th), -32.3% Rush (4th)
Matchups We Love:
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Somehow Robinson continues to find his way to the top of the matchups almost every week. Something he struggled to do last week though was rack up yards and average over five yards per carry. It's not his fault because the defense didn't believe Desmond Ridder could beat them, which was accurate, but it does pose concerns for future matchups that are difficult on the ground. Thankfully, Jacksonville is not a stout defense in any facet. He should bounce back just fine, especially with his involvement as a receiver. As for Tyler Allgeier, he did emerge as a pass-catcher but the struggles of the offense meant a subpar day for him as well. He's still in the flex range, but Week 1's production may go down as his best all season, even excluding the touchdowns.
UPDATE: Cordarrelle Patterson is now expected to play. His presence is a slight downtick for Allgeier.
Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, JAX)
Etienne Jr. was one of only a few bright spots for the Jaguars, who outright forgot to show up against Houston. It was a little disappointing that he couldn't find the end zone, partially because of Tank Bigsby, but his role as a receiver made up for that. Atlanta's in the bottom 10 in rush yards allowed per attempt and ranks 22nd in rush DVOA. Etienne is locked in.
Evan Engram (TE, JAX)
Zay Jones missed their contest, enabling Engram to lead the team in targets with eight. It resulted in his third straight top-10 finish, solidifying him as a strong option with a larger ceiling when one of their trio of receivers misses.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
My concern for Lawrence's output was that they'd establish a lead and run a lot. The concerns were warranted but for a completely different reason. He flat-out let the team down and played poorly. He's got a decent matchup this week, but we've yet to see him really put it all together for a breakout performance. He's an upside streamer who we know could deliver.
Jaguars WRs
For the second consecutive game, it was Calvin Ridley who ended the day as the odd man out while Christian Kirk found the end zone and bested him in receptions and yards. It's not to say these two are players to move off of, but the potential top-15 receiver we envisioned may not be there season-long. And at this point, if it is, it's looking more like Kirk. They're each in the top 24 given the matchup, with increased volatility if Jones is active. After back-to-back missed practices, Jones seems likely to miss again.
UPDATE: Jones is officially out as expected.
Falcons Passing Attack
The Falcons have made their hay on bullying their opponents and enforcing their will. Dan Campbell's Lions are not the team that works against. Detroit played physically at the line of scrimmage, daring Ridder to beat them downfield. They did throw the ball 38 times, which is more than any of their 2022 games. However, of those 38 passes, 17 went to the tight ends and nine went to the backfield. They still wouldn't air it out, as evidenced by Ridder's 5.3 yards per attempt. Kyle Pitts had a serviceable game with five receptions for 41 yards, but Jonnu Smith was right there with him, hauling in five balls for 37 yards with one additional target. The matchup is good enough to make Drake London a boom-bust flex play, whose boom weeks are still outside the top 20, and Pitts a streamer because the tight end position is so desolate.
Injuries:
Zay Jones (knee)
Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -2.5
Implied Total: Dolphins (25.5) vs. Bills (28)
Pace: Dolphins (17th) vs. Bills (32nd)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: 103.5% Pass (1st), 36.7% Rush (1st)
Bills Off. DVOA: 40.4% Pass (7th), -1.2% Rush (10th)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 1.1% Pass (12th), 5.1% Rush (26th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -45.2% Pass (2nd), -26.7% Rush (6th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
It's a shame this one isn't being played in prime time because it figures to be filled with fireworks. After a Week 1 blunder, Allen and the Bills are back on track, easily taking down the Raiders and Commanders. He only needed to air it out 32 times because they led from wire to wire. Miami's defense has improved from last season, but at home, Allen is a top-five option.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Diggs is sitting at a 29% target share through three games, leading the team by a mile. He's always open and knows the opponent well this week. After Diggs, it's Gabe Davis, who continues to produce big plays and find the end zone. While those are mostly unpredictable, taking a shot on him after two successful outings in a high-scoring, high-volume passing game makes sense.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Arguably the MVP through three weeks, Tagovailoa is coming off a historic performance. The Dolphins hung 70 on Denver in an embarrassing beatdown. He'll face his toughest test of the year on the road against the Bills, but with the complement of weapons he has and the play calling of Mike McDaniel, there's no reason to shy away from him.
Dolphins WRs
Tyreek Hill came out with a bang, burning the Broncos secondary for a 54-yard house call. He never looked back after that, even though they were pulling their starters in the second half. The question is more about the health of Jaylen Waddle, who missed last week with a concussion. Wide receivers outside of Hill accounted for four targets without Waddle, who returns to being a must-start now that he's cleared the protocol.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)
While it's impossible not to be riding high if you are a Mostert manager, it's important to recognize that 142 yards and four touchdowns are an anomaly. It's also wise to evaluate the matchup. The Buffalo run defense has been a formidable unit since last season and currently ranks sixth in run defense DVOA. Outside of a 34-yard end around by Tre Tucker in Week 2 and the monster play for 83 yards from Breece Hall in Week 1, they've given up only 179 yards in three contests. Mostert is still in your lineup because he has that explosiveness, but he'll need a big play or a touchdown to finish in the top 20. De'Von Achane broke onto the scene with an even greater day than Mostert, totaling 233 yards and four touchdowns. It's going to be hard not to throw him out there, but you need to keep your expectations in check. His total touches will be affected by the status of Salvon Ahmed, who opened the week with two limited practices.
UPDATE: Ahmed is active, which could impact the touches for Achane.
James Cook (RB, BUF)
The same scenario occurred once again for Cook. He ripped off a nice run, positioning them inside the five-yard line, only to be vultured by Latavius Murray. He still landed inside the top 20 on the week, accumulating over 100 all-purpose yards. That is about where he comes in this week, in part because of the matchup and in part because of his pass-catching, which should be on full display.
Dalton Kincaid (TE, BUF)
Neither tight end was asked to do much because of the game script and lopsided outcome. However, Kincaid played only six fewer snaps than Dawson Knox and ran one fewer route. He also has more targets (12), receptions (11), and yards (72) than Knox on the year with a higher yards per route (0.86). The only downside has been his shorter aDot, which ranks 27th among tight ends. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to tight ends, which is the area they've been exploited most thus far, earning Kincaid a spot in the top 12.
Injuries:
Jeff Wilson Jr. (abdomen)
Salvon Ahmed (groin)
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Vikings -4.5
Implied Total: Vikings (25.5) vs. Panthers (21)
Pace: Vikings (2nd) vs. Panthers (4th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 18.7% Pass (14th), -19.9% Rush (25th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -0.6% Pass (24th), -22.8% Rush (26th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 21.6% Pass (23rd), 2.8% Rush (24th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: 1.2% Pass (11th), 20.4% Rush (32nd)
Matchups We Love:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
Cousins delivered for fantasy against the Chargers as expected. Unfortunately, his late interception and failed opportunities in the red zone were too much to overcome. The good news is he's got a decent matchup against Carolina, and we know the Minnesota defense won't be able to shut them down. It's also helpful that these two squads rank in the top five in the pace of play, meaning more chances for players to score points. Cousins remains in the top 12.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson has 23 receptions on 28 targets. His involvement is absolutely elite. After a slow start in Week 1, he's finished as the TE1 and the TE8. He's firmly in the top five against Carolina.
Vikings WRs
Justin Jefferson finally found the end zone. Statistically, it was bound to happen. He's third in receptions, first in yards, and currently ranks as the WR3. He is awesome. For those who ventured into the secondary options, including Jordan Addison and K.J. Osborn, it wasn't quite the spike week we hoped for, but that's largely because of Hockenson. It's also because Josh Oliver caught a touchdown. What's noteworthy is that Addison's snap percentage has increased each of the first three weeks, plus he has more targets and receptions than Osborn. The shift is coming, making him the preferred option as a top-36 receiver and Osborn a flex.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)
While trusting Andy Dalton as a fantasy starter seems a bit much, Thielen definitely deserves consideration. He's soaking up the volume like crazy, with 18 receptions on 23 targets in the past two weeks. He's also scored in both contests. His veteran presence and the lack of legitimate receivers behind him are sustaining his production. He's in the top 36. The Vikings are known for giving up big plays over the top, which coincides with the skill set of D.J. Chark. Injuries have plagued both these two, but Chark is currently healthy and well-equipped to get loose in the secondary. Even with Bryce Young, he's a flex option with volume and upside working in his favor while the rookie Jonathan Mingo is sidelined. Mingo returned to practice but was limited so we'll see what happens over the weekend.
UPDATE: Mingo is out again, making Chark an interesting flex play.
Miles Sanders (RB, CAR)
Sanders has been a checkdown machine, tying Kyren Williams for the league lead in RB targets (18) while trailing only Bijan Robinson in receptions (12). He hasn't been successful pounding the rock, averaging 3.4 yards per attempt while ranking 36th in both elusive rating and missed tackles forced among qualified backs. However, the matchup is good and the receiving work provides a solid floor as a top-24 back.
UPDATE: Sanders is good to go.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Mattison remained a workhorse back, accounting for 20 of the 23 (87%) backfield carries and seven of the nine (78%) backfield targets. On the flip side, he had a fumble overturned, which continues to be an issue. The backfield is also due for some touchdown regression as all nine times the offense has found the end zone, it's been through the air. The expectation is that Cam Akers will make his debut on Sunday, but you can probably get at least one more start out of Mattison while Akers integrates into the system. It also helps that the matchup is No. 1 by DVOA and the Vikings are favored to win.
Injuries:
Jonathan Mingo (concussion)
Miles Sanders (groin)
Denver Broncos at Chicago Bears
Spread: Broncos -3.5
Implied Total: Broncos (25) vs. Bears (21.5)
Pace: Broncos (14th) vs. Bears (10th)
Broncos Off. DVOA: 16.3% Pass (16th), -9.0% Rush (18th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -39.7% Pass (32nd), -11.2% Rush (23rd)
Broncos Def. DVOA: 61.4% Pass (32nd), 16.8% Rush (30th)
Bears Def. DVOA: 53.8% Pass (31st), -10.8% Rush (16th)
Matchups We Love:
Broncos WRs
Nothing like a pair of 0-3 teams meeting each other in an effort to get back on track. It's a game that someone has to win, but it could be sloppy. Of all the offensive pieces on both sides, it's this group that has the combination of role, talent, and matchup. The concentration of targets continues to go to Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, who combined for 18 targets. The production also followed this week with 13 catches for 172 yards and a score. It's a fantastic matchup for both receivers, who are in the top 24. Marvin Mims Jr. continues to make explosive plays with another long reception of 38 yards and a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown. He's still playing fewer snaps than Brandon Johnson, but his five targets were the highest so far. He's a boom-bust flex option.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Javonte Williams (RB, DEN)
The game script forced the Broncos to air it out almost immediately. It was okay for Williams because he received three targets, but he has a stronger stranglehold on the rushing workload, where he accounted for 11 of the 19 (58%) backfield carries. It's worth mentioning that Jaleel McLaughlin is taking over as the backup, at least on the ground. The matchup is great, landing Williams around the top 24 with a greater touchdown upside.
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
Because the defense is giving up so many points, the offense is being forced to throw a lot. Wilson is 10th in passing attempts, eighth in passing yards, and tied for fifth with Justin Herbert in passing touchdowns. It feels counterintuitive to trust him in your lineup but based on their passing rate and his matchup against Chicago, he's a decent streaming option this week.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
Fields and the offense struggled immensely in Arrowhead. Losing was expected. Even a blowout was expected. Trailing 41-0 in the third quarter is in the Denver category of embarrassment. It's difficult to stay optimistic about Fields because of his inadequacies as a passer, despite his incredible talent as a rusher. The matchup is great, so he's still a streamer, but the floor is very low.
DJ Moore (WR, CHI)
When your quarterback completes 11 passes, you're going to have a bad day. Thankfully, for those who started Moore, he did find the end zone. Similar to Fields, it's risky to put your faith in this offense, even though he's emerged as the clear No. 1 the way we all projected him to, especially against Patrick Surtain II. He lands in the top 36 range.
UPDATE: Chase Claypool will be inactive.
Bears RBs
Roschon Johnson played just five fewer snaps than Khalil Herbert, who had a fumble. Yet, he handled one more carry and earned one more target. The negative game script likely favors Johnson, although it'll be a much more competitive outing this week. Neither is someone to force into your lineup, but they're both upside flex options because of the matchup with Johnson possessing the higher ceiling.
Injuries:
Greg Dulcich (leg)
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -1.0
Implied Total: Ravens (19) vs. Browns (20)
Pace: Ravens (18th) vs. Browns (28th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 24.8% Pass (10th), 14.1% Rush (5th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 0.7% Pass (23rd), -9.9% Rush (21st)
Ravens Def. DVOA: -15.8% Pass (6th), -17.6% Rush (9th)
Browns Def. DVOA: -46.8% Pass (1st), -50.4% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Ravens RBs
Cleveland has proven to be one of the elite defenses in the NFL, right there with the likes of Philly and San Francisco. They're No. 2 against the run by DVOA, No. 1 in terms of allowing the least amount of fantasy points to the running back position, and No. 2 in rush yards per attempt allowed. Gus Edwards is out of the concussion protocol while Justice Hill is trying to get back from a foot injury. However, neither is someone you want to start. That certainly applies to the combination of Melvin Gordon III and Kenyan Drake if they are splitting touches, too.
UPDATE: Hill is active, but it's best to avoid him if possible with Gordon and Drake taking touches away behind Edwards.
Deshaun Watson (QB, CLE)
Watson faced a pass-funnel defense that everyone has crushed for over a year now and showed a level of competence we hadn't yet seen. He completed 82% of his passes for 289 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. He also added four carries for 16 yards. It's encouraging for the receiving corps, but he remains a risky streamer against Baltimore, whose pass defense is a lot better than Tennessee's.
UPDATE: Despite an upcoming bye week, Watson has been ruled out for Sunday's game. It means Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get the start. He's off the radar in single-QB leagues.
David Njoku (TE, CLE)
Njoku has four or fewer targets in every game with no touchdowns. Furthermore, he's had zero red zone targets. He's borderline unstartable at this point, especially against the Ravens.
UPDATE: Njoku sustained burn injuries to his face and arm during a burn accident on Saturday, but he'll play. He's best left on your bench with Watson out.
Ravens Passing Attack
Not to be overshadowed by their run defense, the Browns rank No. 1 in pass defense DVOA, No. 1 in terms of allowing the least amount of fantasy points to the quarterback, wide receiver, and tight end position, and No. 1 in passing yards per attempt allowed. It doesn't mean you bench your Ravens players, but it does mean their ceiling takes a hit. Lamar Jackson was average as a passer but ended up utilizing his legs for a big day, some of which can be attributed to the weather. He had 11 designed runs on 14 rushing attempts for 101 yards and two scores. It was a vintage performance. The rushing production keeps him in the top 12 in spite of the matchup.
The usually reliable Mark Andrews actually trailed Zay Flowers in every receiving category. It's a great sign for Flowers, who benefited from the absence of Odell Beckham Jr. and the weather limiting downfield throws, but it's problematic for Andrews. He's still too good to consider fading, but it may remove the top three type season many of us thought was possible this year unless he reclaims his alpha role. Flowers' six yards per reception isn't ideal, but with constant pressure coming from the Cleveland D-line, I'd expect another high-volume game, keeping him in the top 36.
UPDATE: Rashod Bateman and Beckham have both been ruled out. It's good news for Flowers and Andrews, who'll have less target competition. Nelson Agholor will take over as the No. 2 receiver, but he's a very risky start against Cleveland.
Other Matchups:
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE)
Ford struggled to run the ball against Tennessee just like most backs do, averaging 1.8 yards per carry. Fortunately, he scored a touchdown on the ground and through the air, resulting in a good day for fantasy. Kareem Hunt saw eight opportunities in his first game on only 20% of the snaps. Pierre Strong Jr. came in late to take six carries. They were dominating the Titans from start to finish, enabling them to rush 31 times, so we'll find out what the split looks like in a closer contest this week against the Ravens. It's a challenging matchup, but Ford has shown enough to keep him in the top 24.
Browns WRs
Amari Cooper was robbed of a long touchdown catch and run when an official blew the whistle thinking he stepped out of bounds. It was painful to watch, but he still found pay dirt later in the game en route to another huge performance. After two straight weeks of receiving seven-plus targets but only hauling in three passes, Elijah Moore finally came through with nine receptions for 49 yards. He still played fewer snaps than Donovan Peoples-Jones, but ran more routes and outproduced him in every way. It'll be a tougher matchup for these two, so Cooper drops outside the top 20, and Moore slots in as a top-36 receiver, especially in full-PPR formats.
UPDATE: Watson has been ruled out, meaning Dorian Thompson-Robinson will get the nod. It's a definite downgrade, forcing Cooper outside the top 24 and Moore into the flex range.
Injuries:
Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle)
Justice Hill (foot)
Rashod Bateman (hamstring)
Deshaun Watson (shoulder)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
Spread: Steelers -3.0
Implied Total: Steelers (22.5) vs. Texans (19.5)
Pace: Steelers (7th) vs. Texans (6th)
Steelers Off. DVOA: -11.8% Pass (25th), -31.7% Rush (29th)
Texans Off. DVOA: 22.4% Pass (11th), -36.6% Rush (30th)
Steelers Def. DVOA: -14.3% Pass (7th), -11.2% Rush (14th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 4.0% Pass (17th), 18.7% Rush (31st)
Matchups We Love:
Steelers RBs
The Raiders were a positive matchup for these two last week, which finally yielded some production from Najee Harris. They rode him all the way to a win on the ground with 19 carries for 65 yards. Yet, Jaylen Warren totaled only 13 fewer yards on 11 touches. He also saw four targets and made an impressive block on the long-bomb touchdown to Calvin Austin III. The Texans represent an even better matchup for the backfield, providing another shot at a big day. Much like the Dallas backfield last season, Harris will see the majority of the rushing attempts while Warren sees fewer touches and does more with them. They're both in play against Houston.
Matchups We Hate:
Dameon Pierce (RB, HOU)
Pierce capitalized on his teammate being tackled inside the five-yard line, forcing his way into the end zone. Devin Singletary has run more routes than Pierce in each of their last two outings, plus he came in late to close out the victory with nine carries. It's hard to get excited about Pierce's usage, which is a shame given his talent as a pure runner. He's a touchdown-or-bust back that's better to bench if possible.
C.J. Stroud (RB, HOU)
Stroud deserves a ton of credit for knocking off the Jaguars. He's also setting records as a rookie passer throwing for over 900 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in his first three NFL games. It's tempting to buy into his production and consider him a streamer, and long term, I do. However, the Steelers defense ranks fourth in pass rush grade, according to PFF, which is going to create issues for Houston's patchwork offensive line. In his two easier matchups against Jacksonville and Indianapolis, he threw 280-plus yards and two touchdowns, but against the Ravens in Week 1 that dropped to 242 yards and zero touchdowns, which is closer to what should be expected this week.
Other Matchups:
Texans WRs
It only took three weeks for Tank Dell to ascend to the top of the depth chart. The majority of his production was on a 68-yard house call he made in the fourth quarter, but he still led the team in every receiving statistic. It came at the expense of Nico Collins, who dropped his first dud of the year. It's worth noting that they led from wire to wire, which is unlikely to occur very often. Pittsburgh pressures well but has been burnt in coverage multiple times, as seen by Davante Adams on Sunday night. Dell profiles as the deeper speedster, which gives him the edge as a top-30 receiver with Collins in the top 36 against Patrick Peterson, who has struggled.
George Pickens (WR, PIT)
Despite their offensive woes, the Steelers are playing at the seventh-fastest pace, just one spot behind the Texans. It's another scenario where more plays should mean more opportunities. Pickens keeps making big plays. He's also seeing a steady dose of volume with Diontae Johnson sidelined. His targets per route run of 22% and yards per route run of 2.20 are both good indicators of his talent and potential breakout. He's a top-30 receiver who can produce a spike week, although he takes on Steven Nelson, who has been a tough matchup. His teammate Austin is also worth a look as a boom-bust flex option after tying Pickens with six targets.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Despite his lackluster start to the year, Freiermuth delivered when it seemed like he should. He still only had three grabs for 41 yards, but a trip to the end zone is what you're after at the tight end position. He leads the team with four targets in the red zone, an area of the field Kenny Pickett looks his way. The matchup is good again this week, landing him in the top 12.
Injuries:
Diontae Johnson (hamstring)
Noah Brown (groin)
Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
Spread: Rams -1.0
Implied Total: Rams (23.5) vs. Colts (22.5)
Pace: Rams (21st) vs. Colts (3rd)
Rams Off. DVOA: 18.2% Pass (15th), -1.2% Rush (11th)
Colts Off. DVOA: 2.5% Pass (21st), -5.8% Rush (14th)
Rams Def. DVOA: 10.9% Pass (20th), 13.5% Rush (29th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 2.6% Pass (15th), -14.2% Rush (13th)
Matchups We Love:
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)
Williams played 100% of the snaps in Week 3, accounting for every running back touch. That type of usage is unheard of in today's day and age. For whatever reason, they seemed to go away from their ground attack, which was working previously. 10 rushing attempts are disappointing for Williams. He did earn a whopping seven targets, but many of them were uncatchable. His volume keeps him in the top 24 against an average defense.
Zack Moss (RB, IND)
The Colts kicker, Matt Gay, kicked five field goals, four of which were from 50 yards or longer, including the game-winner. Aside from him, it was the Moss show. He finished with 33 touches for nearly 150 yards and a receiving touchdown. He's one of the few tailbacks receiving this kind of workload, which makes him worth chasing for fantasy. It's no surprise that his carry count went up in a game with poor weather that was also missing rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Even with Richardson back, Moss stays in the top 24.
Anthony Richardson (QB, IND)
Richardson is back at practice, so he's trending toward making his return from the concussion. The rushing we saw from him prior to the concussion was elite. He had 13 rushing attempts for 75 yards and three touchdowns in six quarters of action. That alone is enough to get him into the top 10 with a top-five upside.
Rams WRs
The dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell fell back to earth against Cincinnati, but they were still the clear top options. One of the issues was that the team failed to establish the run, which fed into their play-action game. Head coach Sean McVay is too clever not to figure that out and find a way to get a more balanced attack. These two are still earning plenty of targets in a pass-first offense, ranking fifth in pass rate over expectation. Nacua keeps the upper hand as a top-20 wideout with Atwell not far behind against beatable rookie corners.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
Stafford was under constant pressure, taking six sacks and frequently getting rid of the ball early. The offensive line will be an issue against Indy, but their secondary is more exploitable. They've been beaten consistently by quarterbacks in fantasy, partly due to Lamar Jackson's rushing production last week, making Stafford a volume-based streamer.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
After totaling a measly 12 yards on three catches against the 49ers in Week 2, Higbee made his targets count last week. He caught all five of them for 71 yards. It's likely correlated to the increase in pressure, causing Stafford to look for options closer to the line of scrimmage, but it's still a positive sign. He's back in the top 12 as long as he's active after missing practice Thursday and Friday.
UPDATE: Higbee is good to go.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Gardner Minshew threw the ball a lot, 44 times to be exact. Not only did it help to sustain the volume and production for Pittman Jr., but it also made Josh Downs relevant. Downs seems to have secured the No. 2 role in the offense, which with Minshew at the helm was important. The Rams appear better on defense statistically than they really are because they faced Geno Smith in Week 1, who struggled after losing two offensive linemen, and faced a hobbled Joe Burrow last week. Pittman will be locked in regardless of who's throwing him the ball, while Downs moves to a risky start with Richardson back.
Injuries:
Jonathan Taylor (ankle)
Jelani Woods (hamstring)
Cooper Kupp (hamstring)
Tyler Higbee (Achilles)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Saints -3.0
Implied Total: Buccaneers (18.5) vs. Saints (21.5)
Pace: Buccaneers (27th) vs. Saints (8th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 10.0% Pass (18th), -28.1% Rush (28th)
Saints Off. DVOA: 5.5% Pass (19th), -9.5% Rush (20th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: -6.2% Pass (9th), 0.1% Rush (23rd)
Saints Def. DVOA: -17.0% Pass (5th), -15.2% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
None
Matchups We Hate:
Rachaad White (RB, TB)
We pretty much know the deal with White at this point. He'll see about 15 carries with three to five targets every week. As for the production that follows, it's entirely matchup-dependent. The Eagles are tough to run on, limiting White to 2.7 yards per carry. The same issue will exist in New Orleans against another top-10 unit. He's still a flex play because of his guaranteed touches, particularly as a receiver, but he's a floor play.
Cade Otton (TE, TB)
Otton remains behind both receivers and White in the pecking order, which makes it difficult for him to stay relevant. The Saints are also strong against tight ends dating back to last season. He's on the bench.
Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)
What we know is that without Jamaal Williams, Kamara has a clear path to his usual allotment of touches. The question is how will he look in his first game of the year, and what kind of shape is he in. It often takes a week or two to knock off the rust. The Buccaneers were shutting down opposing rushers until they faced the Eagles, which also gives me pause about Kamara. Kendre Miller, Tony Jones Jr., and Taysom Hill may take a few carries as well. Overall, he's a top-24 back with a lot of volatility.
Other Matchups:
Buccaneers WRs
We knew if Baker Mayfield and Co. were going to flop, it would be against Philly. Unsurprisingly, the offense did almost nothing until a drive late in the game, which accounted for 75 of their 174 yards of offense and their only touchdown. It meant a poor outing for Chris Godwin yet again, who has finished outside the top 40 every week. We know the talent is there, but without an excess of volume, he's going to disappoint. Mike Evans, on the other hand, salvaged his day on that drive with multiple catches, the final of which occurred in the end zone. He's earned eight-plus targets in every contest. He's slated to line up across from a familiar foe in Marshon Lattimore, which hasn't been a great experience historically. That said, he's been too good to drop beyond the top 24.
Saints WRs
New Orleans was crushing Green Bay until Derek Carr left with a shoulder injury. It took the wind out of their sails, resulting in a painful loss and zero points scored with Jameis Winston under center. Winston is known for being a gunslinger with a propensity for turnovers, although he fought off some of those tendencies as their starter two years ago. His presence negatively impacts Michael Thomas the most because the majority of his work is done at a shorter depth of target compared to Chris Olave, and definitely Rashid Shaheed. Olave is obviously a must-start. He's also due for a trip to the end zone after racking up 302 scoreless yards on 22 receptions. After him, it gets risky with Winston taking over. Thomas and Shaheed both enter the flex category with Shaheed possessing a higher ceiling.
UPDATE: Carr will get the nod, which is good news for the receiving corps.
Injuries:
Chase Edmonds (knee)
Derek Carr (shoulder)
Jamaal Williams (hamstring)
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -9.5
Implied Total: Commanders (16.75) vs. Eagles (26.25)
Pace: Commanders (23rd) vs. Eagles (29th)
Commanders Off. DVOA: -15.4% Pass (27th), 10.9% Rush (6th)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 11.0% Pass (17th), 22.1% Rush (2nd)
Commanders Def. DVOA: 12.7% Pass (21st), -11.0% Rush (15th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 1.3% Pass (14th), -52.8% Rush (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Hurts continues to make mistakes and win ugly. It's impacted his fantasy value a little, too. He currently sits at QB9 on the season. Whether it's the transition to a new play-caller or a ramp-up period following their Super Bowl loss, he hasn't looked comfortable. Hosting the Commanders, who were manhandled by the Bills, is another shot at a big game.
Eagles WRs
The squeaky wheel narrative proved true for A.J. Brown, who dominated the Buccaneers with nine catches for 141 yards on 14 targets. Despite a perceived letdown over the first two weeks, his targets per route run (31%) and yards per route run (2.57) are both better than DeVonta Smith's. There will be ebbs and flows as to who leads the team each week, but they're both elite.
Matchups We Hate:
Commanders Passing Attack
Sam Howell was under attack all day against Buffalo. Unfortunately, the Eagles' defensive front is as good, if not better. Part of the blame lies with Howell, who's been sacked 19 times, and holds the ball too long. It's hard to imagine things going well for him in this one.
That takes us to the pass-catchers. Terry McLaurin was okay, but otherwise, no one else made their mark. The tight end position continues to be a focal point for Howell. They've turned a 12% target share into 27% of Howell's completions as a group. Cole Turner actually led the team with seven targets against the Bills. Furthermore, the Commanders have the third-lowest wide receiver target share in the league. It's bad news for Jahan Dotson, who without a quarterback change seems destined for mediocrity. McLaurin is the safest play as a top-36 wideout and Logan Thomas, who practiced in full, is worth a shot if he's active.
UPDATE: Thomas is good to go and should resume his role as the starter.
Brian Robinson Jr. (RB, WAS)
It was the first time all season the Commanders never held the lead, which negatively impacted Robinson Jr.'s workload. He only ceded two carries to Antonio Gibson, but despite another fumble, Gibson saw all five backfield targets. Robinson ranks 11th in elusive rating, seventh in missed tackles forced, and 12th in rushing yards over expected per attempt. He's a talented runner, but the matchup is brutal, and there's a risk he's game-scripted out.
Other Matchups:
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert repeated his high-volume, low-production performance from Week 2. It's frustrating that he's not seeing the downfield usage we became accustomed to last year, but 15 targets in two games at tight end is too many to overlook.
Eagles RBs
D'Andre Swift solidified his role as the starter while proving his offensive outburst wasn't a one-hit wonder. Philly should have no problem establishing a lead and pounding the rock against the Commanders, setting Swift up for another top-15 outing. Kenneth Gainwell's opportunities were similar (8% fewer snaps, two fewer carries, four fewer routes, and the same number of targets), but the result was only 48 total yards. He's a volume-reliant flex option who needs to find the end zone to pay dividends. Boston Scott practiced in full on Thursday, indicating he'll suit up. Assuming he officially clears the concussion protocol, he's more of a nuisance than anything.
UPDATE: Scott is good to go, increasing the odds of fewer touches for Swift and Gainwell. It's not enough to change their outlook, but it'll be worth watching to see how involved he is.
Injuries:
None
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Bengals -2.5
Implied Total: Bengals (21.75) vs. Titans (19.25)
Pace: Bengals (9th) vs. Titans (30th)
Bengals Off. DVOA: -13.0% Pass (26th), -7.7% Rush (15th)
Titans Off. DVOA: -30.0% Pass (31st), -12.6% Rush (24th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 2.7% Pass (16th), 12.8% Rush (28th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 27.9% Pass (26th), -42.2% Rush (3rd)
Matchups We Love:
Bengals WRs
After two stressful weeks for Ja'Marr Chase managers, he finally rewarded those who spent a top-five draft pick on him. He was back to his dominant ways, earning 15 targets and seemingly open at all times. It was reassuring for his value moving forward, securing him as a must-start. Tee Higgins has somehow caught only 36% of Joe Burrow's passes through three weeks. It's unfathomable that two players with their connection and capability cannot seem to get on the same page. It's made for a rough ride, but he's averaging over nine targets per game. Plus, he gets the Tennessee secondary this week. You have to go back to the well.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon's struggled as a runner for much of the past two seasons, but his receiving role and red zone opportunities kept him afloat. The targets weren't there on Monday, but he did find pay dirt. Against arguably the league's best run defense, it's going to be a long day. He'll need to either score or see a bump in targets to maintain his top-24 value.
Titans Passing Attack
Cleveland is the No. 1 defense in the NFL right now, so blaming Ryan Tannehill for posting a dud last week is a bit unfair. That said, the passing attack hasn't been effective all season. The only player you can trust here is DeAndre Hopkins, and even he's riskier than ever. The ankle injury has caused him to miss a ton of practice, so he's likely played at less than 100 percent health. We'll monitor the injury report this week and proceed from there. He's a top-24 wideout at best, but more likely to be in the top 36.
UPDATE: Burks is out, while Hopkins is in. He practiced in full for the first time since the injury, which is great news for his potential to soak up targets.
Other Matchups:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow gutted out a win to save the Bengals' season. That might be a little hyperbolic, but it's not far from the truth. He was clearly laboring, and barely able to roll out or escape the pocket. His 5.3 yards per attempt is further evidence that he did not want to get hit. Thankfully, the Titans are a pass-funnel defense that shuts down the run. It doesn't mean Burrow immediately bounces back to top-10 numbers, but it's enough to look his way depending on your other options. He has practiced in full this week, which is a positive sign for his calf.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
Whether because of the toe injury or just the talent of Tyjae Spears, this is more of a committee than we're used to. Henry still has more rushing attempts (51-15), but Spears has the edge in routes run (45-27), targets (10-5), and receptions (7-5). He also has the same number of forced tackles with a higher elusive rating and yards per carry. It's possible some of this can be attributed to matchups. We know the Saints and Browns are tough against the run, and the Chargers are easier to attack through the air. It's also partially because the team has been trailing frequently. It's possible the decline of Henry is coming, but I wouldn't close the case on that just yet. The Bengals were gashed on the ground during the first two weeks, so Henry's performance this week will be telling. For now, he drops outside the top 10.
Injuries:
Treylon Burks (knee)
Irv Smith Jr. (hamstring)
Matchup Analysis - 4:25 ET Games
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -5.0
Implied Total: Raiders (21.75) vs. Chargers (26.75)
Pace: Raiders (24th) vs. Chargers (5th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 4.1% Pass (20th), -48.9% Rush (32nd)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 41.2% Pass (5th), 3.4% Rush (8th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 35.0% Pass (29th), -1.6% Rush (22nd)
Chargers Def. DVOA: 31.6% Pass (28th), 5.5% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
It's impossible to write about the Chargers without acknowledging the season-ending injury to Mike Williams. Health has been the only thing capable of slowing him. It's a little scary for Herbert because we saw injuries rob him of an elite year in 2022. Williams isn't the only star sidelined, as Austin Ekeler has missed their past two contests. They'll need him back if they're going to sustain their elite passing attack, but against the Raiders, Herbert will be able to make due.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Allen flexed his passing skills, tossing a 49-yard bomb to Williams. That was in addition to his 18 receptions for 215 yards. Aside from Justin Jefferson, there's no one else in football seeing the kind of volume Allen's getting. It's a little concerning long-term because we've seen him break down, but for now, he's ready to roll. The team made a notable adjustment after losing Ekeler, shifting from a 47% neutral pass rate, which ranked 30th, to a 74% neutral pass rate, which ranks first. The sample size is small, so the most accurate number is likely somewhere in between, but it provides some insight as to how they cater their game plan to their personnel. Losing Williams could cause a shift towards the 47% mark from Week 1. In either case, the next man up is Joshua Palmer, who filled in for a significant stretch last year. He becomes a top-36 receiver with a top-24 upside, while Quentin Johnston is more of a stash to see if his usage gets a bump.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Davante Adams (WR, LV)
The concentration of targets to Adams and Jakobi Meyers (when active) has been outrageous. In the two games they've played together, they've combined for a 73% target share. It's fantastic for fantasy, making the decisions very easy. Unfortunately, their outlook might take a hit because Jimmy Garoppolo is in the concussion protocol. If he can't go, it's either veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer or rookie Aidan O'Connell. Both are a downgrade, but the rookie has more unknown potential. The matchup is good enough to counteract the QB concerns, keeping them both in play.
UPDATE: Garoppolo has been ruled out as expected. Adams is in no matter what, but Meyers falls out of the top 24 with O'Connell expected to lead the way.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Jacobs has accounted for 71.4% of his team's total rushing attempts, which is the sixth-highest, and has a 14.9% target share, which is the fifth-highest. The workload is on par with his RB3 campaign, but the production hasn't followed. Things improved against the Steelers, but only to the point of an RB20 finish. Betting on those touches is typically a good bet to make. A backup signal-caller pours some cold water on that, but the matchup is ideal, so he's back in the top 20 with a top-12 upside if things correct themselves.
Chargers TEs
The other beneficiaries from Williams' absence are Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. Parham has hauled in a touchdown on 50% of his catches, which is obviously unsustainable, but Everett earned six targets against Minnesota. It's a great matchup to throw Everett out there as a high-end streamer.
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC)
We referenced the philosophical change the offense made since losing Ekeler. In addition to the pass-first approach, they also aren't throwing to Kelley. He has just one catch on three targets. The matchup and offense would indicate he's a player to start, but the way he's busted the past two weeks makes it really challenging to do. For those willing to trust the process, he could score or rack up yards on the ground. For those unwilling to take the shot, it's possible we see exactly what we saw the past two weeks. This one is tough. Additionally, Ekeler is back at practice, which is worth monitoring into the weekend.
UPDATE: Ekeler is doubtful to play this week, which lines up with the earlier comments about his limited mobility. You can assume he'll be out at this point.
Injuries:
Austin Ekeler (ankle)
Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion)
New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -6.0
Implied Total: Patriots (19) vs. Cowboys (25)
Pace: Patriots (1st) vs. Cowboys (25th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 20.0% Pass (13th), -9.0% Rush (19th)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 21.0% Pass (12th), -4.1% Rush (12th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 1.3% Pass (13th), -14.6% Rush (12th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -39.7% Pass (3rd), -2.4% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL)
Dallas overlooked the Cardinals as heavy favorites and wound up paying the price for it. While they trailed the entire way, Pollard still managed 23 rushing attempts for 122 yards. The disappointing part was three receptions for a loss of one yard, along with Rico Dowdle coming in to steal his receiving touchdown. Pollard leads the league in carries, averaging nearly 21 per game. Plus, he's tied for fifth in targets. Despite the massive workload, there is still an opportunity for touches behind him. Dowdle turned seven touches into 49 yards and a score, which could make him intriguing as a flex option in matchups like this where they are favored to win.
Matchups We Hate:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Prescott followed up a better day against the Jets with a setback against Arizona. He was outside the top half of the league in passer rating and completion percentage, despite an inferior opponent. In fact, he was bested by the signal-caller across the field, Joshua Dobbs, in most statistical categories. New England remains a solid pass defense, pushing Prescott outside the top 15 again.
Patriots Passing Attack
The weather combined with the matchup made for a difficult day in New York. Mac Jones played mistake-free football with zero turnovers and no sacks, allowing the rushing attack to get the win. Dallas has been more vulnerable against the run, but their pass defense remains elite. They've allowed the third-lowest EPA per dropback to their opponents, rank third in pass defense DVOA, and fifth in passing yards allowed per attempt. The one area they've given up fantasy points is against tight ends, which keeps Hunter Henry in play as a streamer.
Other Matchups:
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)
It's easy to look at the box score, see 16 carries for Ezekiel Elliott, and assume this backfield returned to a timeshare, which would be a mistake. As mentioned above, the weather forced them to lean on the ground game, resulting in 40 rushing attempts. Additionally, nine of the 16 carries Elliott had were in the fourth quarter when they were trying to close out the game and Stevenson had already done his damage. Stevenson still had three more rushing attempts and three more targets. They'll need to lean on him again as their best player.
Jake Ferguson (TE, DAL)
Ferguson was a focal point again, tying for the lead in targets. He's now tied with Travis Kelce for the eighth-most this season. It's a valuable role in this offense with Prescott at the helm. The Patriots appear good against tight ends, but they've faced New York, Miami, and Philly thus far. Only Dallas Goedert is a quality tight end and it was his strange goose game. Don't be afraid to lock Ferguson in.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Something that was a bit unusual against the Cardinals was the wider distribution of volume. Lamb, Ferguson, Michael Gallup, and Brandin Cooks all earned seven targets. It does correlate with Cooks' return to action, but it seems like more of an anomaly. New England will almost certainly try to slow down Pollard, knowing that their chance of success is better against Prescott and the receivers. I'd anticipate a bounce-back game from Lamb. Gallup would be the No. 2 receiver to look to, but he's in the flex range.
Injuries:
None
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -14.0
Implied Total: Cardinals (14.75) vs. 49ers (28.75)
Pace: Cardinals (19th) vs. 49ers (31st)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 32.1% Pass (9th), 17.8% Rush (3rd)
49ers Off. DVOA: 45.9% Pass (3rd), 16.4% Rush (4th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: 5.1% Pass (18th), -6.4% Rush (19th)
49ers Def. DVOA: -26.4% Pass (4th), -2.3% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, SF)
Kyle Shanahan stated he was going to involve Elijah Mitchell more, and he did. Mitchell toted the rock 11 times with three targets. The good news is that it didn't much matter for McCaffrey, who still saw 23 touches for 119 total yards and a touchdown on 61% of the snaps. The offense is more than capable of supporting a secondary back, especially when their rushing attack is firing on all cylinders and they have the lead. Mitchell moves into flex territory given the point spread is the highest of the week.
UPDATE: Mitchell is expected to be out. It would enable Jordan Mason and Tyrion Davis-Price to have a larger role with Mason as the dart throw.
Matchups We Hate:
Cardinals Passing Attack
Kudos to Dobbs and Co. for knocking off Dallas in impressive fashion. The climb becomes even steeper this week against the 49ers, whose pass defense is elite. Much like Dallas, they've been beaten more on the ground. Marquise Brown remains the player to consider here as a top-36 option. Michael Wilson made a nice catch downfield for 69 yards, and Rondale Moore turned seven touches into 62 yards and a score, but it's ill-advised to chase those two this week.
UPDATE: Brown is now expected to play.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
It wasn't a spot many had Conner slated for 100-plus yards and a touchdown, but he delivered. They utilized more bodies in the backfield but that was primarily because they found a matchup they could exploit, overpowering the Dallas run defense. Conner's outlook is grim again at Levi's Stadium, but his workload keeps him in the top 24.
Other Matchups:
49ers WRs
When one of Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, or George Kittle is out, the other two go nuclear. It was exactly what happened for Samuel, who averaged 21.5 yards per reception, taking over the downfield role Aiyuk ordinarily has. Coincidentally, it looks like the reverse might happen this week. Samuel has missed two straight practices while Aiyuk is back at practice. If Samuel is out, Aiyuk becomes a top-15 option.
UPDATE: Jauan Jennings is out, Aiyuk is good to go, and Samuel is now expected to play. Samuel is still in your lineup if active, but we'll Aiyuk still gets a boost due to the injury concerns in an easy matchup.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
As we alluded to above, it was no surprise to see Kittle post his best game of the season. He's always a threat to go off, but the odds skyrocket when one of those two WRs is out. It's a juicy matchup against the Cardinals, positioning him as a top-five play.
Brock Purdy (QB, SF)
Purdy surpassed his usual yards total while maintaining the two touchdowns we now expect. Arizona is not as bad on defense as was projected entering the year, but Purdy is still a capable streamer.
Injuries:
Kyler Murray (knee)
Marquise Brown (thumb)
Deebo Samuel (ribs, knee)
Jauan Jennings (shin)
Matchup Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets
Spread: Chiefs -9.0
Implied Total: Chiefs (25.25) vs. Jets (16.25)
Pace: Chiefs (22nd) vs. Jets (13th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 43.9% Pass (4th), -8.4% Rush (17th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -28.9% Pass (30th), -43.0% Rush (31st)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -12.6% Pass (8th), -8.1% Rush (18th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 21.7% Pass (24th), -22.2% Rush (8th)
Matchups We Love:
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
The man who brought Taylor Swift to the game only to haul in a touchdown is of course in your lineup as always.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
The schedule-makers essentially gave the Chiefs an extra bye week. After sitting their starters for much of the second half against the Bears, they'll likely be doing the same thing again this week. The Jets' defense is a much better unit than the Bears, but it's not going to matter if the score gets out of hand because their offense cannot put up points. Mahomes will need to be diligent to avoid Sauce Gardner, but there's no reason to pivot.
Matchups We Hate:
Jets Players
It's sad to place a whole team in this section, but it's the right move. Kansas City boasts an impressive defense, led by Chris Jones up front and Trent Duffie in the secondary. Combine their excellent talent with the struggles New York has had on offense, ranking in the bottom five of most statistical categories (DVOA, points per game, EPA/play), and it's best to avoid the likes of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson if you can (which stinks). It also hurt to watch Nick Bawden score their only touchdown. The team "made a move" by signing Trevor Siemian to the practice squad, but that's not going to move the needle.
Other Matchups:
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
Pacheco entered the game dealing with an injury, but he played and scored. His 42% of snaps was a season-low, which makes sense considering the injury and the huge lead they had. It's a tough matchup, but they'll be up a lot and could pound the rock to close things out. He's still a slight fade in case they decide to throw more, but he remains around the top 24. Clyde Edwards-Helaire tied the 15 rushing attempts Pacheco had and also found the end zone, but it's risky to chase that production because they are a pass-first team, leading the league in pass rate over expectation by a large margin.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
Rice is pushing to be the only non-Kelce receiving option you can consider for fantasy. He was second in targets, plus he was dragged down at the one-yard line twice. He also ranks ninth among all receivers in yards per route run at 2.77 and second to only Tyreek Hill in targets per route run at 40%. He's a worthy flex receiver in a game where they should score a lot.
Injuries:
Richie James (knee)
Matchups Analysis - Monday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Spread: Seahawks -1.5
Implied Total: Seahawks (24.25) vs. Giants (22.75)
Pace: Seahawks (20th) vs. Giants (15th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 39.5% Pass (8th), 5.5% Rush (7th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -24.74% Pass (29th), -7.9% Rush (16th)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 31.8% Pass (28th), -25.4% Rush (7th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 46.0% Pass (30th), 3.2% Rush (25th)
Matchups We Love:
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Here we have two capable offenses against two poor defenses with a higher over/under. It's a great place to find fantasy value. Smith finished with only one touchdown against the Panthers, but producing nearly 300 yards was good to see. Carolina's defense has been tougher than they get credit for, setting Smith up in a better spot this week against the Giants. He's in the mix as a streamer with a top-10 upside.
Seahawks WRs
Unfortunately, that one touchdown went to Jake Bobo instead of Tyler Lockett or D.K. Metcalf. Metcalf was the production king last week with six receptions for 112 yards. Lockett still saw seven targets, but the backfield and tight end position stole 15 combined as well. Once again, the Giants' defense is a perfect matchup for these two to find success, giving you no reason to look elsewhere.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, SEA)
The knock on Walker III is usually that he's inefficient without explosive plays and lacks the pass-catching skills to be a workhorse. We've seen that play out in several of his games, but last week was not one of them. He averaged over five yards per carry and made a downfield reception for 36 yards. He also ran in a one-yard and seven-yard touchdown. He did it all.
Walker has the second-most attempts inside the 10-yard line (nine), four of which he's turned into touchdowns for a success rate of 44.4%. He's also converted 50% of his five-zone attempts. It was an area that he struggled during 2022, so that's a big improvement that could be sticky moving forward. Zach Charbonnet played a season-high 43% of the snaps along with nine carries. It's the most involved he's been. Interestingly, his two 10-zone carries have gone for a loss of one yard. It's not to say he can't succeed there, but rather to dismiss concerns of him being better than Walker thus far.
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
Jones tried his best to sustain drives without Saquon Barkley, but there was nowhere near enough talent around him to make much happen against the 49ers. Fortunately, this week he gets a great matchup against the Seattle pass defense, which continues to bleed points and yards. His ability to take off and run combined with the matchup lands him in the top 15.
Darren Waller (TE, NYG)
It's fair to be disappointed with three catches for 20 yards, but the seven targets are promising. He's still the alpha in the offense and the matchup is much better. We've yet to get a ceiling game from him, but this could be the week.
Matchups We Hate:
None
Other Matchups:
Giants WRs
The battle to earn the WR1 role is heating up. Darius Slayton is playing the most snaps, Parris Campbell is earning targets from the slot, and Wan'Dale Robinson finished with a targets per route run of 56% in limited action. He's the best bet in terms of talent to emerge, especially as his health improves and he's on the field more. It's too early to take a shot on him Monday, but the time is coming. There isn't a clear No. 2 behind Waller to go after, but Campbell and Slayton would be the frontrunners as volatile flex options.
Giants RBs
Early reports are that there's a chance Saquon Barkley could play, which is why this section write-up is titled "Giants RBs." If he's ruled out, then Matt Breida will assume the starting role after playing 82% of the snaps, but we saw Gary Brightwell share the workload. New York is favored at home and the matchup is middle of the road, so Breida is a potential start if you're stuck, but I wouldn't be overly excited to put him in your lineup.
Injuries:
Saquon Barkley (ankle)
Daniel Bellinger (neck)
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