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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 11 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, rbsdm.com, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears
Spread: Ravens -6
Implied Total: Ravens (25.8) vs. Bears (19.8)
Pace: Ravens (30th) vs. Bears (24th)
Scheme: Ravens (50% Pass, 50% Rush) vs. Bears (47% Pass, 53% Rush)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 17.3% Pass (16th), 3.7% Rush (3rd)
Bears Def. DVOA: 11.1% Pass (19th), -5.4% Rush (21st)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 17.1% Pass (24th), -13.8% Rush (15th)
Bears Off. DVOA: -13.8% Pass (29th), -5.3% Rush (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI)
Cole Kmet is also showing signs of breaking out of late, putting up 40+ yards in three of his last four games, including 87 yards in his last game. Kmet has been targeted 25 times during that stretch. That's encouraging usage for the second-year tight end with first-round draft capital. Kmet goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks 30th in PPR per game to tight ends. Baltimore has allowed 56 receptions (26th), 652 yards (30th), and 7.49 yards per target (17th) to the position. Kmet is one of my favorite tight end streamers this week. His outlook looks even better now that A-Rob can't go.
Matchups We Hate:
Allen Robinson (WR, CHI)
Allen Robinson showed some signs of life in his last game, catching 4-of-6 targets for 68 yards. It's crazy that we're getting excited over a line like that with a player like A-Rob, but that's the way it's been this season. Perhaps the Bears will find ways to manufacture more touches for their top wideout coming out of the bye week, but it's tough to get excited about him as anything more than a low-end WR3 right now. The Ravens are allowing the 10th-fewest PPR points per game and Robinson has fallen behind Darnell Mooney in terms of fantasy production. I'd take a wait-and-see approach with the veteran to see if there are any improvements coming out of the bye. Robinson has missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring injury.
UPDATE: Allen Robinson has been ruled out.
Other Matchups:
Ravens RBs
On the surface, the Ravens' running game looks like a situation to avoid, especially with Latavius Murray likely to return after the team released Le'Veon Bell on Tuesday. It's unclear how each back will be deployed, but the likeliest scenario is Murray plays a lead role mixed with Devonta Freeman. They go up against a Bears defense allowing the 10th-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, although they are giving up 4.65 yards per carry (27th). However, certain developments have made this situation look a bit more promising. For one, Lamar and Bateman have missed practices with an illness. Hollywood Brown has also been banged up with a thigh injury. The Bears will also likely be without Akiem Hicks, which weakens their run defense. We could see the Ravens go run-heavy here, which makes Murray worth a look as a FLEX.
Marquise Brown (WR, BAL)
Marquise Brown has been one of the most consistent wideouts in the NFL this season, finishing as a Top-10 wideout in four of nine games this season. Brown currently leads the Ravens with a 35.61% air yard share and 26.54% target share. Since rookie Rashod Bateman has entered the fray, Brown has actually gotten even better usage: 39.9% air yard share and 29.33% target share. Brown goes up against a Bears defense that is allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers this season. Opposing wideouts have averaged 9.84 yards per target against this Chicago defense, which is the most in the NFL. However, Brown is currently dealing with a thigh injury that caused him to miss practice on Wednesday and Thursday. This puts him in the lukewarm section.
UPDATE: Marquise Brown has officially been ruled out.
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Mark Andrews is having a terrific season, catching 48-of-69 targets for 623 yards and four touchdowns, ranking as TE2 in PPR points per game. However, this is a tough matchup against a Bears defense that is allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing tight ends. Chicago has given up 31 receptions (2nd), 269 yards (1st), and 5.17 yards per target (2nd) to the position. They've limited some of the best tight ends like Darren Waller (4 REC, 45 YDS) and T.J. Hockenson (4 REC, 45 YDS). You're still firing up Andrews, but this has the makings of a down week for one of the best tight ends in the NFL. At the same time, Andrews could see an uptick in targets if Brown is out. Keep an eye on the injury report.
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
This looks like a floor week for Lamar Jackson, who's been a much better quarterback at home than on the road. Jackson is averaging five fewer passing yards per game and 33 fewer rushing yards per game on the road. The Ravens are averaging only 19.75 points per game in four road games. The Bears rank 21st in Dropback EPA, 18th in Dropback Success Rate, and 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but I can't ignore these splits, especially in a game with a 45.5-point total. You're obviously starting Jackson in all formats, but I just don't see a ceiling week in this spot, which is why he's in the lukewarm section. Furthermore, Jackson has missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a non-COVID illness. While he's likely to play, it's unclear how this will affect him. I'm still keeping him in the lukewarm section, but my confidence is waning.
UPDATE: Lamar Jackson has been ruled out.
Rashod Bateman (WR, BAL)
Rashod Bateman has looked really impressive so far, catching 18-of-28 targets for 241 yards in four games. He's racked up at least six targets in each game, including 8+ in his last two. Bateman has also put up 80+ yards in two of those games. The rookie ranks third on the team with an 18.67% target share since returning from injury in Week 6. Last week, he answered a major question: how would he perform with Sammy Watkins back in the lineup? Bateman out-snapped Watkins 54.79% to 31.51% and out-targeted the veteran 8-to-3. Bateman is a stud and should be viewed as an upside WR3 moving forward. This is an exploitable matchup against the Bears, so we could see him find the endzone for the first time in his career. If Brown is out, Bateman would surge into the 'Love' section. The problem is that the rookie also missed Thursday's practice with an illness. Keep an eye on his status.
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
You have to be encouraged with Justin Fields' performance over the last two games, as the rookie has completed 36-of-56 passes for 466 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. He's also added 148 rushing yards with a touchdown on 18 carries. Fields has finished as QB3 and QB9 during that stretch. This is an exploitable matchup against a Ravens defense that ranks 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Baltimore has given up 2,687 yards (30th) and 8.14 yards per attempt (30th). They have also allowed two rushing touchdowns. We could see another Top-12 finish for the rookie in this spot.
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
David Montgomery returned to the lineup last game and addressed some concerns over usage with the rookie Khalil Herbert playing so well. Montgomery played 85.48% of the snaps with 13 rush attempts and two targets. He's clearly going to remain as the workhorse in this backfield. The Ravens defense is tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. They are also 12th in Rush EPA and 15th in Rush DVOA, so this isn't exactly an easy matchup. Having said that, we can keep Monty in the lukewarm section because of his high volume. Fire him up as an upside RB2 in this spot.
Darnell Mooney (WR, CHI)
Darnell Mooney has established himself as the most trusted pass-catcher in this run-heavy offense. The second-year wideout has combined for 24 receptions, 349 yards, and two touchdowns in his last six games. He also added a rushing touchdown during that stretch. Mooney ranks as WR28 in PPR per game in this span. Justin Fields' improvements as a passer bode well for Mooney. We can consider him as an upside WR3 against a Ravens defense allowing 8.76 yards per target (25th) to opposing wideouts this season. A-Rob is now considered doubtful for the game, which helps out Mooney in this spot.
Injuries:
BAL QB Lamar Jackson (illness)
BAL WR Marquise Brown (thigh)
BAL WR Rashod Bateman (illness)
CHI WR Allen Robinson (hamstring)
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Packers -2.5
Implied Total: Packers (26.0) vs. Vikings (23.5)
Pace: Packers (32nd) vs. Vikings (6th)
Scheme: Packers (57% Pass, 43% Rush) vs. Vikings (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Packers Off. DVOA: 24.0% Pass (11th), -3.9% Rush (13th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: -7.4% Pass (6th), -2.9% Rush (28th)
Packers Def. DVOA: -0.6% Pass (8th), -4.5% Rush (24th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 36.4% Pass (4th), -22.8% Rush (29th)
Matchups We Love:
A.J. Dillon (RB, GB)
A.J. Dillon takes over as the bellcow in this backfield with Aaron Jones sidelined. We saw flashes of his massive upside last week, as Jones was forced out early. Dillon rushed 21 times for 66 yards and two touchdowns. He also added two receptions for 62 yards. We need to consider him as a fantasy RB1 while Jones is out of the lineup. Dillon has a great matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 31st in Rush EPA, 22nd in yards per carry, and 22nd in PPR per game allowed to running backs. Add in Dillon's high touchdown equity in an efficient offense and you have the recipe for a ceiling game.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Davante Adams has had four consecutive floor weeks since his 200+ yard eruption against the Bengals, combining for 23 receptions, 285 yards, and one touchdown during that stretch. However, he has a chance to blow up against a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Minnesota has given up 8.41 yards per target to the position, which ranks 21st in the NFL. This projects as a close game between two division rivals, so we could see Adams hit his ceiling in this spot.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
Dalvin Cook delivered in a smash spot against the Chargers last week, rushing 24 times for 94 yards and a touchdown while catching 3-of-5 targets for 24 yards. He's now averaging 24 touches per game in his last four. Cook goes up against a Packers defense that ranks 27th in Rush EPA. Green Bay's pass defense has been very good, so we could see the Vikings opt for a more run-heavy approach in this game, especially since we could see them try to slow the game down to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field. Cook is an elite RB1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
In the last three weeks, Green Bay has given up the following fantasy finishes to quarterbacks: QB26, QB22, QB29. This was against Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray - that's highly impressive, especially since top cornerback Jaire Alexander has been out of the lineup. The Packers defense ranks 7th in Dropback EPA and 8th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. They are limiting opposing passers to only 6.33 yards per attempt (2nd in NFL). This is a bad spot for Cousins.
Adam Thielen (WR, MIN)
This matchup also profiles as a floor week for Adam Thielen, as the Packers are allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to wide receivers. Opposing wideouts are only averaging 6.68 yards per target (2nd) against this defense. We have seen Thielen's floor this year and it's not pretty: 2 REC, 6 YDS, 1 TD against the Ravens; 2 REC, 40 YDS against the Lions. Add in the fact that the Packers play at a slow pace, which could limit Vikings' passing volume and you have a bad spot for Thielen. Consider him more of a volatile WR3 here.
Other Matchups:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
Aaron Rodgers goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 5th in Dropback EPA and 14th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The Packers are already a bit run-heavy at a slow pace on offense, so we could see this as a low-upside spot for Rodgers, especially since Minnesota is more vulnerable on the ground. Rodgers has finished outside of the Top-12 quarterbacks in five of nine games this season, so it's not like he's a must-start every week. I'd consider him a lukewarm option in this matchup. It's also worth noting that Rodgers missed Wednesday and Thursday's practice with a toe injury.
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
Justin Jefferson is less vulnerable to this tough matchup than Adam Thielen because the second-year wideout has a higher target share (24.31%), air yard share (41.9%), and average target depth (12.1). This means that Jefferson does not need the same type of volume as Thielen to meet expectations. Having said that, we have to consider Jefferson as a lukewarm option given how successful Green Bay has been against opposing wideouts: D.K. Metcalf (3 REC, 26 YDS), Tyler Lockett (2 REC, 23 YDS), and Tyreek Hill (4 REC, 37 YDS) are some recent marquee names with down weeks against the Packers.
Tyler Conklin (TE, MIN)
Tyler Conklin continues to deliver as a weekly streamer, catching 3-of-5 targets for 11 yards and two touchdowns against the Chargers last week. While the yardage wasn't there, it was encouraging to see him so heavily targeted in the redzone. Prior to this game, Conklin had eclipsed 40 yards in three consecutive outings, including 71 yards against the Panthers. He's now finished in the Top-10 tight ends in two of his last three games. The Packers have also been more susceptible to tight end production, ranking 21st in PPR per game to the position. You can absolutely go back to the well with Conklin as a streamer here.
Injuries:
GB QB Aaron Rodgers (toe)
GB RB Aaron Jones (knee)
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
Spread: Dolphins -3
Implied Total: Dolphins (24.0) vs. Jets (21.0)
Pace: Dolphins (3rd) vs. Jets (8th)
Scheme: Dolphins (65% Pass, 35% Rush) vs. Jets (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: -2.8% Pass (26th), -28.8% Rush (30th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 33.5% Pass (32nd), 4.1% Rush (31st)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 10.5% Pass (17th), -13.8% Rush (14th)
Jets Off. DVOA: -5.4% Pass (27th), -12.6% Rush (21st)
Matchups We Love:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua Tagovailoa has finished as a Top-12 QB in his last four games (QB11 and QB2). The Dolphins are one of the most pass-heavy teams in neutral game scripts (65%). Tua goes up against a Jets defense that ranks 31st in Dropback EPA. This defense ranks 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, but that's because teams are running all over them. We saw what happened when a pass-heavy team like the Bills came to town: Josh Allen went off for 366 yards and 13.07 yards per attempt. This looks like a potential ceiling game for Tagovailoa.
Jaylen Waddle (WR, MIA)
Jaylen Waddle has put up an impressive 22.25% target share, albeit at a low average target depth (7.2). However, Waddle is the clear-cut top option here with DeVante Parker currently on injured reserve. Waddle has racked up double-digit targets in three of his last five games. The Jets are rank 17th in PPR per game to wide receivers, but that's because of limited passing volume from their opponents. If we dig deeper, we see that they are giving up 9.23 yards per target, which ranks 30th in the NFL. This is a great spot for Waddle.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
It's also a smash spot for Mike Gesicki, who could get the "squeaky-wheel" treatment, where teams force-feed one of their top targets following a poor game (Gesicki had zero receptions against the Ravens). Gesicki surprisingly was unable to haul in any of his seven targets last week. While the production was bad, the volume was good, so this sets up as the perfect bounce-back. The Jets rank 20th in PPR per game to tight ends, but it's important to remember that Gesicki is a slot receiver with a tight end designation. He rarely ever lines up at in-line tight end. He's in a great spot this week.
Matchups We Hate:
Jets WRs
Joe Flacco is taking over as starting quarterback this week, which means that it's unclear how the targets will be distributed. Flacco already has an established rapport with Jamison Crowder from last season, so we could see him emerge as the favorite target this week. Rookie Elijah Moore has combined for 16 receptions, 193 yards, and three touchdowns in his last three games. He's the one with the most upside, but it's hard to trust him with the change at quarterback. Then there's Corey Davis, who returned to the lineup to catch 5-of-7 targets for 93 yards. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most PPR per game to wideouts, so this is a good matchup, it's just an unclear situation, which is why I prefer to stay away.
Other Matchups:
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Myles Gaskin has a fantastic matchup, as the Jets rank 30th in Rush EPA. This defense is allowing 39.8 PPR per game to running backs (32nd), which is 8.6 more points per game than the 31st-ranked Seahawks. The problem here is that Gaskin gets inconsistent usage at times. Last week, Gaskin played 60.87% of the snaps, losing some passing-game work to Patrick Laird (23.19% snaps) and rush attempts to Salvon Ahmed (three opportunities). I love the matchup, but I'm tempering my expectations because of Gaskin's inconsistent production. There's also the chance that the Dolphins air it out on this Jets defense. Just look at what the Bills' running backs did in this spot last week: Zack Moss (7 ATT, 27 YDS, 1 TD), Devin Singletary (7 ATT, 43 YDS, 1 TD), and Matt Breida (3 ATT, 28 YDS, 1 TD). It's not out of the question to see a similar situation with Miami. For that reason, I'll have Gaskin as a lukewarm RB2 with upside.
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
The change at quarterback is bad news for Michael Carter, who was seeing heavy usage in the passing game with Mike White. White absolutely peppered his running backs with check-down targets, which aligned well with Carter's skillset. Carter had posted 31 targets in his last four games. While we could see Flacco target his running backs, it's highly unlikely that it will be at the same rate as White. This keeps Carter in the lukewarm section, even against a Dolphins defense that ranks 18th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. You also have to consider Ty Johnson, who still plays a prominent role in this offense.
Injuries:
There aren't any injuries to fantasy-relevant players in this game.
New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Spread: Eagles -1.5
Implied Total: Saints (21.0) vs. Eagles (22.5)
Pace: Saints (19th) vs. Eagles (5th)
Scheme: Saints (53% Pass, 47% Rush) vs. Eagles (51% Pass, 49% Rush)
Saints Off. DVOA: 29.8% Pass (7th), -11.4% Rush (19th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 10.9% Pass (18th), -6.5% Rush (20th)
Saints Def. DVOA: 6.0% Pass (13th), -38.0% Rush (1st)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 21.8% Pass (13th), 3.0% Rush (4th)
Matchups We Love:
Mark Ingram II (RB, NO)
Alvin Kamarais out for another week, leaving Mark Ingram to carry the load once again. He did well in this role last week, rushing 14 times for 47 yards and a touchdown while catching 4-of-7 targets for 61 yards. That's impressive usage and puts him in play as an upside RB against an Eagles defense that ranks 15th in Rush EPA, but 26th in PPR per game to opposing running backs. Philly has allowed 81 targets to running backs (28th), so we could see Ingram make an impact in the passing game once again.
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
Jalen Hurts looked sharp against the Broncos last week, completing 16-of-23 passes for 178 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. He also added 53 yards on the ground. While it was his third consecutive game with fewer than 24 pass attempts, the good news is that he goes up against a pass-funnel Saints defense this week. New Orleans ranks 2nd in Rush EPA, but rank 19th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. It's unlikely that the Eagles will be able to maintain their recent run-heavy scheme against this defense. This means more pass attempts for Hurts, which could result in more rush attempts as well as he goes off-script and scrambles.
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
I'm loving what I'm seeing out of DeVonta Smith right now, as he's combined for 9 receptions, 182 yards, and three touchdowns in his last two games. Smith has posted an impressive 24.01% target share and 40.09% air yard share in his rookie season. That's terrific usage that could be even better if Dallas Goedert is forced to miss this game (he's currently in concussion protocol). The Saints are allowing the sixth-most PPR per game to wideouts, including 9.14 yards per target (28th).
Matchups We Hate:
Eagles RBs
Miles Sanders has a chance to return for this game, but his status is unclear at the moment. If he does play, we could consider him as a volume-based RB2, but it's such a tough matchup. The Saints are tied for 2nd in PPR per game to running backs, allowing only 2.78 yards per carry (1st). There's also risk that Sanders has a reduced workload in his first game back. If Sanders doesn't play, it's an even less appealing situation with Boston Scott and Jordan Howard splitting carries.
UPDATE: Miles Sanders has officially been activated for Week 11.
Other Matchups:
Saints WRs
Deonte Harris continues to be my preferred choice among these Saints' pass-catchers. Harris is coming off a three-catch, 84-yard performance against the Titans. He's put up 3.26 yards per route run this season, which is 2nd behind Deebo Samuel among wideouts with at least 30 targets. Harris takes on an Eagles defense that is allowing the third-fewest PPR per game to wideouts, but Harris' efficiency keeps him on the radar as a dart throw WR4 in this spot. Marquez Callaway scores more touchdowns, but he's less exciting than Harris. Callaway hasn't eclipsed 40 yards since October 10th against Washington.
Adam Trautman (TE, NO)
Adam Trautman is intriguing because of his recent usage, as the second-year tight end has racked up 19 targets in his last three games. Quarterback Trevor Siemian has been pretty solid in fantasy (QB10 and QB4 finishes), so Trautman has a chance to evolve into a weekly streamer. The Eagles are giving up the most PPR per game to tight ends, so this is a terrific matchup. Tight ends are combining for 7.5 receptions and 73.3 yards per game against this defense. Trautman is firmly in play as a streamer, especially with Kamara out for another week.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Dallas Goedert returned to a limited practice on Thursday, which bodes well for his chances of suiting up against the Saints. Goedert has put up 15 targets in his last three games, as his role as increased with Zach Ertz's departure. We could see Goedert approach his ceiling in this spot because it will be tough for the Eagles to continue to play so run-heavy against such a stout run defense. However, I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section due to questions surrounding his status.
UPDATE: Goedert is expected to play this week.
Injuries:
NO RB Alvin Kamara (knee)
PHI RB Miles Sanders (ankle)
PHI TE Dallas Goedert (concussion)
Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills -7.5
Implied Total: Colts (21.3) vs. Bills (28.8)
Pace: Colts (27th) vs. Bills (4th)
Scheme: Colts (58% Pass, 42% Rush) vs. Bills (68% Pass, 32% Rush)
Colts Off. DVOA: 11.6% Pass (20th), 2.9% Rush (5th)
Bills Def. DVOA: -24.9% Pass (1st), -25.9% Rush (3rd)
Colts Def. DVOA: 16.0% Pass (23rd), 2.9% Rush (5th)
Bills Off. DVOA: 23.4% Pass (12th), -11.2% Rush (18th)
Matchups We Love:
Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
Josh Allen bounced back in a big way last week, completing 21-of-28 passes for 366 yards (13.1 Y/A) with two touchdowns and one interception. While he did finish as QB3, his day would have been even better if the game wasn't a blowout. Allen gets another great matchup against a Colts defense that ranks 24th in Dropback EPA, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Indy has allowed quarterbacks to average 263.3 passing yards per game at 7.68 yards per attempt. The Colts can keep this game close, which means that we could really see a ceiling game from Allen in this spot. He's the overall QB1 this week.
Stefon Diggs (WR, BUF)
Stefon Diggs finally delivered his long-awaited eruption, catching 8-of-13 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown against the Jets. He put up season-highs in air yards (208) and target share (46.43%). This is more like the Diggs we were drafting at the end of the first round. Diggs is in a smash spot against a Colts defense allowing the fourth-most PPR per game to wide receivers. The Colts have given up 205 targets (30th) and 8.07 yards per target (16th) to receivers. Look for Diggs to keep it rolling against this pass-funnel defense.
Dawson Knox (TE, BUF)
Dawson Knox returned to the lineup last week, catching his lone target for 17 yards. The good news is that Knox did play on 84.48% of the snaps, so it's not like he came back to a reduced workload. We could see him bounce back against a Colts defense allowing the sixth-most PPR per game to opposing tight ends. We have seen how Josh Allen loves to target Knox in the red zone (five touchdowns in seven games), so we can safely fire up Knox as a TE1 in this spot. We'll put him in the 'Love' section because he plays the thinnest position in fantasy football.
Matchups We Hate:
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Carson Wentz has finished in the Top-12 quarterbacks in four of his last six games, but this is a terrible matchup. The Bills rank 1st in Dropback EPA, allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Opposing quarterbacks have six touchdowns with 15 interceptions, averaging 5.69 yards per attempt against this defense. Wentz will need to have high volume in order to provide adequate fantasy production in this spot. This makes him a player to avoid. You should look elsewhere if you need a streamer this week.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Michael Pittman Jr. is having a breakout season, catching 55-of-76 targets for 729 yards and five touchdowns. However, this looks like a floor week against a Bills defense that has locked down wideouts as well, allowing the second-fewest PPR per game to the position. We have also seen Pittman limited to five targets or fewer in three of his last five games. This looks like a floor week for the Year 2 breakout receiver. Consider him a volatile WR3 in this spot.
Bills RBs
Zack Moss (7 ATT, 27 YDS, 1 TD), Devin Singletary (7 ATT, 43 YDS, 1 TD; 1 TGT, 1 REC, 6 YDS), and Matt Breida (3 ATT, 28 YDS, 1 TD; 3 TGT, 3 REC, 22 YDS, 1 TD) formed a three-man committee against the Jets, making this a situation to avoid. To make matters worse, they take on a Colts defense that has been much better against the run, ranking 3rd in Rush EPA. The Colts are tied for the second-fewest PPR per game allowed to running backs. This is an easy avoid here, as we can expect the Bills to remain pass-heavy in this game.
Other Matchups:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
We all know how ridiculous Jonathan Taylor has been this season, especially in his last few games, but this looks like a floor week. The Bills defense has been just as good against the run, ranking 1st in Rush EPA. They have given up the fewest PPR per game to running backs, allowing only 3.68 yards per carry (4th). The good news is that Taylor has averaged 22.75 opportunities in his last four games, including 17 targets, so he should have the volume to still provide solid production. JT is a matchup-proof RB1, but it'll be tough for him to hit his ceiling in this spot.
Emmanuel Sanders (WR, BUF)
Emmanuel Sanders has been ice cold of late, catching 6-of-14 targets for 92 yards in his last three games. The good news is that Sanders has still posted 237 air yards during this stretch, but the bad news is that he's only posted a 12.28% target share. This game profiles as a chance for a bounce-back due to the Colts' pass-funnel defense and struggles against opposing wideouts, but we have to leave Sanders in the lukewarm section due to his recent struggles. Consider him on the WR3/4 fringe.
Cole Beasley (WR, BUF)
Cole Beasley is currently dealing with a rib injury, causing him to miss Wednesday's practice. This injury limited his effectiveness against the Jets this past week, as he only caught two targets for 15 yards. Prior to that game, he had racked up 33 targets in his previous three outings. Monitor his status because this is a good spot for him as well. However, if he's able to play, you have to consider him clearly behind Sanders in this game, since he's not at 100 percent. The good news for Beasley is that he returned to practice on Thursday.
Injuries:
BUF WR Cole Beasley (ribs)
Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Browns -10
Implied Total: Lions (17.5) vs. Browns (27.5)
Pace: Lions (26th) vs. Browns (28th)
Scheme: Lions (50% Pass, 50% Rush) vs. Browns (50% Pass, 50% Rush)
Lions Off. DVOA: -17.5% Pass (32nd), -16.3% Rush (26th)
Browns Def. DVOA: 21.3% Pass (26th), -14.7% Rush (12th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 21.9% Pass (28th), -16.3% Rush (26th)
Browns Off. DVOA: 12.9% Pass (18th), 8.7% Rush (1st)
Matchups We Love:
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
Nick Chubb should have a field day against a Lions defense that ranks 17th in Rush EPA, allowing the third-most PPR per game to opposing running backs. He's currently tied for 9th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. He's in a smash spot with Kareem Hunt still sidelined. You also have to love the favorable game script with the Browns as 10-point favorites, taking on Tim Boyle at quarterback. Chubb needs to be considered as an elite RB1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players in this game.
Other Matchups:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
D'Andre Swift had his best rushing game of the season, carrying 33 times for 130 yards while catching 3-of-6 targets for 5 yards. Head coach Dan Campbell took over the playcalling last week and it was clear that his desire was to emphasize the running game. It might be difficult to do that once again in a game that projects to be less competitive. The Lions are 10-point underdogs, so we could see Swift back to getting peppered with check-downs. The Browns rank 21st in Rush EPA, but they're tied for 11th in PPR per game to opposing running backs. Keep an eye on Jamaal Williams' status for this game. I'd bump Swift to the 'Love' section if Williams misses another game. However, it looks like Williams should be good to go, as he has returned to practice. Meanwhile, Jared Goff has missed practice all week, making backup Tim Boyle likely to start. Boyle is a total unknown, so we could see another run-heavy approach. I wouldn't view this as a downgrade necessarily, as Goff has been horrendous.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
T.J. Hockenson was shut out against the Steelers last week, limited by poor quarterback play with a run-heavy gameplan against a strong defense. We could see the 'squeaky-wheel' narrative emerge this week, which is when teams try to force-feed their top player who is coming off a poor game. I still like Hockenson as a Top-10 tight end this week, but gone are the days where we thought he was clearly Top-4. Hockenson ranks 7th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game among tight ends. He takes on a Browns defense that ranks 14th in PPR per game allowed to the position. Perhaps Boyle will help him out.
Jarvis Landry (WR, CLE)
Jarvis Landry is in a terrific spot against a Lions defense that ranks 32nd in Dropback EPA, allowing 9.45 yards per target to opposing wideouts (31st). Landry has combined for 28 targets in four games since returning from injury, so the volume is there for a solid week. The problem is that the Browns are a run-heavy team and that should remain the case in this projected positive game script. Having said that, Landry could see a ton of volume because Donovan Peoples-Jones might miss the game with a groin injury.
Injuries:
CLE RB Nick Chubb (COVID-19)
CLE WR Donovan Peoples-Jones (groin)
DET QB Jared Goff (oblique)
DET RB Jamaal Williams (thigh)
Additional Notes:
Baker Mayfield has a great matchup, but I don't consider him fantasy-relevant considering the Browns' run-heavy nature and Mayfield's volatile performance.
The Lions' entire passing game outside of T.J. Hockenson is irrelevant as well.
Washington Football Team at Carolina Panthers
Spread: Panthers -3.5
Implied Total: Football Team (20.0) vs. Panthers (23.5)
Pace: Football Team (12th) vs. Panthers (22nd)
Scheme: Football Team (58% Pass, 42% Rush) vs. Panthers (52% Pass, 48% Rush)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 12.7% Pass (19th), -16.1% Rush (25th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: -17.3% Pass (2nd), -10.4% Rush (19th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 24.1% Pass (29th), -16.0% Rush (6th)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -16.0% Pass (30th), -12.1% Rush (20th)
Matchups We Love:
Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR)
Christian McCaffrey has been an absolute monster since returning from injury, combining for 143 rushing yards with 14 receptions and 120 receiving yards in two games. CMC is averaging 20.5 Expected Fantasy Points per Game, which ranks third among running backs, behind Najee Harris and Derrick Henry. McCaffrey is the clear focal point of this offense. The only back I'd take over him right now is Jonathan Taylor. Washington has been better against the run (6th in rush DVOA), but that doesn't matter for CMC because of his receiving volume.
Matchups We Hate:
Taylor Heinicke (QB, WAS)
Taylor Heinicke has been a solid streamer in the right matchup due to his lucrative fantasy role, as he currently ranks 11th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. However, this is definitely not the right matchup, as the Panthers rank 2nd in Dropback EPA, allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. While Heinicke does have a rushing floor (27.4 Rush Yards per game), it's tough to rely on him as a streamer in this spot. Look elsewhere if you're desperate at quarterback.
Other Matchups:
Cam Newton (QB, CAR)
Cam Newton looks ready to make his full return to the Panthers here, as he's highly likely to start this game. Newton threw and rushed for a touchdown on limited snaps last week. He has a good matchup against a Washington defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but temper your expectations, as they just limited Tom Brady to a QB14 finish. Newton should be able to still make an impact in the running game, which puts him on the QB1 radar, but I'll leave him in the lukewarm section until he proves it on the field.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
D.J. Moore has had a career year ruined by poor quarterback play. Moore ranks 9th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game, but look at his recent weekly finishes: WR49, WR28, WR21, WR40, WR47, and WR51. Perhaps Newton can bring Moore back to life as a fantasy WR1. This is a great matchup against a Washington defense that is allowing the second-most PPR per game to wideouts. We also know that Cam has established rapport with Moore, since the two played together in Newton's first stint with the team. However, as with Cam, I have to leave Moore in the lukewarm section until we see improvement. Robby Anderson showed signs of life last week, catching 4-of-6 targets for 37 yards and a touchdown, but he's off the fantasy radar until we see more.
Antonio Gibson (RB, WAS)
Speaking of resurgences, Antonio Gibson looked terrific coming off the bye last week, rushing 24 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns while catching both targets for 14 yards. Those 26 touches are a season-high and his first 20+ touch game since October 10th against the Saints. Perhaps Gibson is finally somewhat healthy after being banged up with the shin injury. Having said that, this is a tough matchup against a Panthers defense that ranks 5th in Rush EPA. This keeps him in the lukewarm section. J.D. McKissic needs Washington to play from behind in order to have fantasy relevance when Gibson looks healthy like this.
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
Terry McLaurin has been the definition of a boom-or-bust wideout this season, finishing as WR30 or worse in six games and WR5 or better in three games. He's put up 16.1 Expected Fantasy Points per Game, which ranks 14th among wideouts. However, this is a tough matchup against a Panthers defense allowing the fourth-fewest PPR per game to wideouts. McLaurin should see heavy volume, but it's hard to see him hitting his ceiling in this spot. Consider him a low-end WR2 here, but his upside keeps him in the lukewarm section.
Injuries:
WAS TE Logan Thomas (hamstring)
San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars
Spread: 49ers -6.5
Implied Total: 49ers (17.0) vs. Cardinals (27.5)
Pace: 49ers (21st) vs. Jaguars (11th)
Scheme: 49ers (53% Pass, 47% Rush) vs. Jaguars (55% Pass, 45% Rush)
49ers Off. DVOA: 34.7% Pass (5th), 1.6% Rush (7th)
Jaguars Def. DVOA: 31.6% Pass (31st), -15.9% Rush (7th)
49ers Def. DVOA: 13.5% Pass (20th), -19.9% Rush (5th)
Jaguars Off. DVOA: -9.8% Pass (28th), 7.7% Rush (2nd)
Matchups We Love:
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
You can make a legitimate argument that Deebo Samuel has been the best receiver in football this season. He's currently WR2 in PPR per game with 16.5 Expected Fantasy Points per Game (WR12) but 5.7 Fantasy Points Above Expectation per Game (WR1). Samuel has the rare ability to dominate after the catch and win downfield while acting as the target hog (31.85% target share). He's in a smash spot against a Jaguars defense allowing the eighth-most PPR per game to opposing wideouts, including 9.16 yards per target (29th).
Matchups We Hate:
Trevor Lawrence (QB, JAX)
Trevor Lawrence has been one of the biggest disappointments in football, posting a 58 percent completion rate with eight touchdowns, nine interceptions, and 6.0 yards per attempt. He's currently QB24 in fantasy points, making him virtually irrelevant aside from SuperFlex formats. Lawrence goes up against an improving 49ers defense that just limited MVP candidate Matthew Stafford to only 5.9 yards per attempt with two interceptions. Look elsewhere if you need a streamer.
Jaguars WRs
This entire passing game isn't too interesting for season-long leagues. Marvin Jones Jr. has finished as WR50 or worse in five of his last six games. Jamal Agnew has two Top-24 finishes in his last three games, so he's probably the most appealing option of this group, especially in DFS tournaments. The 49ers are allowing the 11th-fewest PPR per game to wide receivers, so this is a tough matchup, particularly when you factor in San Francisco's ability to control the clock on offense. Pass on these wideouts.
Other Matchups:
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Jimmy Garoppolo has surprisingly been rock-solid as a fantasy asset of late, finishing as QB5, QB7, and QB13 in his last three games. He's worth a look as a streamer against a Jaguars defense that ranks 28th in Dropback EPA. The issue here is volume, as Garoppolo is only averaging 29 attempts in his last three, which is skewed by his one game with 40 attempts. The 49ers need to play from behind for Garoppolo to hit his ceiling, or he would need to be super-efficient. This is why I'll leave him in the lukewarm section.
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF)
Elijah Mitchell is currently dealing with a broken finger and is listed as doubtful for Sunday. Jeff Wilson is expected to carry the load in a good matchup against a Jaguars defense that ranks 18th in Rush EPA. It's also a positive game script with the 49ers as 6.5-point favorites, so Wilson is an upside RB2 in this spot. The risk here is that it's unclear if Wilson will see the same type of usage that Mitchell, as we could see Trey Sermon activated and play a role in this game.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Brandon Aiyuk is a volatile wideout on the WR3/4 fringe, but it's good to see that he's actually on the field now and consistently running routes. He's finally out of Kyle Shanahan's doghouse. Aiyuk is the most dependent 49er on game script here, as run-heavy scripts with San Fran playing with a lead is bad news for Aiyuk. The second-year wideout has a good matchup against the Jaguars, but it's tough to get too excited with this run-heavy offense, especially with George Kittle back to full health.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
George Kittle has combined for 11 receptions, 151 yards, and two touchdowns in two games since returning from injury. He's back as an elite TE1 against a Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in PPR per game to tight ends. However, I can't put him in the 'Love' section with the 49ers projecting to control this game. Kittle is not as explosive as Deebo Samuel, making it more difficult to make up for limited volume. We saw how that can affect Kittle's production last week, as he only had five receptions for 50 yards. You're still firing him up as an elite TE1, but it might be tough for him to hit his ceiling here.
James Robinson (RB, JAX)
James Robinson led the Jaguars with 17 opportunities last week, which indicates that he's pretty much back to full health and ready for to retain his role as the workhorse. Robinson currently ranks as RB15 in Expected Fantasy Points per Game, which sounds about right, as he's essentially a high-end RB2, albeit in one of the worst offenses in football. Robinson goes up against a 49ers defense that ranks 11th in Rush EPA, so this is a difficult matchup, but the volume gives him a nice floor.
Dan Arnold (TE, JAX)
Dan Arnold needs to be considered as a TE1 moving forward. The veteran tight end has finished as TE2, TE12, and TE8 in his last three weeks. He's clearly the most reliable target in this offense and one of the few moves that this Jaguars' front office got right this season. Arnold goes up against a 49ers defense that is tied for 8th in PPR per game to tight ends, but I love the volume here. Arnold has racked up 25 targets in his last three games. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section, but he's a rock-solid play this week.
Injuries:
Elijah Mitchell (rib, finger) has been ruled out
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Titans -10.5
Implied Total: Texans (17.0) vs. Titans (27.5)
Pace: Texans (25th) vs. Titans (18th)
Scheme: Texans (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Titans (55% Pass, 45% Rush)
Texans Off. DVOA: -16.6% Pass (31st), -36.0% Rush (31st)
Titans Def. DVOA: 0.0% Pass (9th), -3.9% Rush (25th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 7.1% Pass (14th), -3.7% Rush (27th)
Titans Off. DVOA: 9.5% Pass (21st), -2.9% Rush (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Brandin Cooks ranks 11th among wideouts in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. He posted 14 targets against the Dolphins in Tyrod Taylor's return prior to the bye week. Now the veteran takes on a Titans defense allowing the most PPR per game to opposing wideouts. This projects as a negative game script for the Texans, where Taylor is forced to air it out to keep pace against this tough defense. While Houston's offense is one of the worst in the league, we could see Cooks eclipse double-digit targets once again in this spot.
D'Onta Foreman (RB, TEN)
D'Onta Foreman is quickly establishing himself as the preferred runner in this backfield. He rushed 11 times for 30 yards and caught both targets for 48 yards last week. Meanwhile, Adrian Peterson only had eight carries for 21 yards. Jeremy McNichols is currently dealing with a concussion. If he can't go this week, you'd likely see Foreman take over his role on passing downs. That puts Foreman on the RB2 radar against a Texans defense that ranks 24th in Rush EPA. Foreman is in a great spot this week in a positive game script.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
A.J. Brown has been a massive disappointment in two games without Derrick Henry, catching only 6-of-15 targets for 58 yards. However, I'm a big believer in his talent and you have to love the potential volume, especially with Julio Jones on injured reserve. The Texans are tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, so this is an exploitable matchup. Look for Brown to get back on track in this spot. You have to love the Titans' 27.5-point implied team total here.
Matchups We Hate:
Tyrod Taylor (QB, HOU)
Tyrod Taylor has still shown a rushing floor in limited action this season (26.0 Rush Yards per game), but it's hard to rely on him as a streamer against this red-hot Titans defense that has caused fits for Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford in recent weeks. While the Titans are tied for 29th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, this is a different defense than the unit we saw earlier in the season. I'd only consider starting Taylor in SuperFlex formats.
Other Matchups:
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Nico Collins is an intriguing sleeper this week. The rookie has caught 13-of-18 targets for 152 yards in his last four games. He's put up 175 air yards during that stretch, which ranks 2nd on the team. Tyrod Taylor is better at throwing downfield than Davis Mills, so perhaps the veteran can unlock some of Collins' potential here. While I like him much more in DFS, I wouldn't be opposed to starting Collins as a WR4 dart throw in deeper formats. I have a good feeling about the rookie coming out of the bye. Perhaps the Texans try to get him more involved.
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Ryan Tannehill has finished as QB9 and QB17 without Derrick Henry. The Texans have rank 26th in Dropback EPA, so this is an exploitable matchup. The risk here is that this projects as a blowout with the Titans as 10.5-point favorites. However, we have to consider Tannehill in the lukewarm section given the high implied team total. He's absolutely in play as a potential Top-12 option in this spot. If the Texans are able to surprisingly keep it close, then it could be a spike week for the veteran quarterback.
Marcus Johnson (WR, TEN)
Marcus Johnson broke out without Julio Jones last week, catching 5-of-6 targets for 100 yards. Johnson played 63.33% of the snaps with a 22.54% air yard share. He looks like the possession receiver in this offense (5.6 aDOT) with Julio out. Johnson gets another good matchup here against a Texans defense that is tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. The risk here is that the Titans don't have to pass much given their status as heavy favorites, but the arrow is pointing up for Johnson.
Injuries:
TEN RB Derrick Henry (foot)
TEN WR Julio Jones (hamstring)
Additional Notes:
The Texans backfield is not fantasy-relevant.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Bengals -1
Implied Total: Bengals (25.3) vs. Raiders (24.3)
Pace: Bengals (29th) vs. Raiders (20th)
Scheme: Bengals (60% Pass, 40% Rush) vs. Raiders (62% Pass, 38% Rush)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 2.2% Pass (24th), -15.3% Rush (24th)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 15.8% Pass (22nd), -13.0% Rush (16th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: 14.1% Pass (21st), -15.1% Rush (10th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 13.4% Pass (17th), -16.3% Rush (27th)
Matchups We Love:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Joe Burrow gets a great matchup against a Raiders defense that just allowed Patrick Mahomes to go off for 406 yards and five touchdowns (8.1 Y/A). The Raiders rank 23rd in Dropback EPA and 20th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. This projects as a good game environment, as both teams have similar implied totals. The Bengals and Raiders each have pass-heavy tendencies, so we could really see Burrow go shot for shot with Derek Carr, resulting in fantasy production. We could see Burrow hit his ceiling coming out of the bye.
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Joe Mixon has delivered on preseason hype, currently ranked as RB9 in PPR per game. We have seen him regain his early-season passing game usage, combining for 10 targets in his last two games. That's a great sign for his outlook moving forward. The Raiders rank 8th in Rush EPA, but 24th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. This is a team that just allowed Darrel Williams (11 ATT, 43 YDS; 9 TGT, 9 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD) and Devontae Booker (21 ATT, 99 YDS; 3 TGT, 3 REC, 23 YDS) to go off. Mixon has a great chance to keep the good times rolling in this spot.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase has had consecutive floor games following his 200+ yard eruption, catching 9-of-22 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown in his last two. The good news is that the targets have been there, so it's only a matter of time before this rookie phenom has a big game once again. The Raiders have actually been stout against opposing wideouts, ranking 6th in PPR per game allowed to the position, but I'm not too concerned given Chase's talent. Chase should be able to have his way with this Raiders' defense.
Darren Waller (TE, LV)
Darren Waller had another down week against the Chiefs, catching only 4-of-7 targets for 24 yards. However, we should see a much better performance in this pass-heavy game script in a projected close game. While Cincinnati ranks 10th in PPR points allowed to tight ends, Waller should see enough volume to finish in the elite tier of his position this week. The Raiders are reeling right now, having lost two in a row. It's time that they feed their best player, especially after he barely did anything against the Chiefs last week.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any fantasy-relevant matchups to hate in this projected shootout.
Other Matchups:
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Tee Higgins has put up some nice usage this season with a 24.57% target share. The second-year wideout has 29 targets in his last three games, including 15 looks against the Ravens. He's currently tied for 22nd with 14.3 Expected Fantasy Points per game. We can fire up Higgins as a WR2 this week, but I'll leave him in the lukewarm section because the Raiders have been effective at limiting opposing wideouts this season. Higgins should be good for another 7+ targets in this one. Tyler Boyd has fallen off the fantasy radar.
C.J. Uzomah (TE, CIN)
C.J. Uzomah hasn't done much since his two-touchdown outburst against the Ravens, but he has received nine targets in two games, which puts him on the streaming radar. Uzomah has a great matchup against a Raiders defense that ranks 31st in PPR per game allowed to tight ends. We could see another spike game from Uzomah, who has shown a high ceiling: 3 REC, 91 YDS, and 2 TD against the Ravens; 5 REC, 95 YDS, 2 TD against the Jaguars.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Derek Carr has finished in the Top-12 in five of nine games this season, making him one of the most underrated quarterbacks in fantasy football. He's tied for 8th with 8.6 air yards per attempt and working in a pass-heavy offense, which makes him an appealing streamer in the right matchups. Carr goes up against a Bengals defense that ranks 11th in Dropback EPA, but we could see this game turn into a shootout, which would allow Carr to provide strong production due to the volume. Having said that, I'll leave him in the lukewarm section due to the Bengals' pass defense.
Josh Jacobs (RB, LV)
Josh Jacobs has averaged only 14.5 touches in his last two games, but he does take on a Bengals defense that just got gashed by Nick Chubb for 137 yards and two touchdowns on only 14 carries. This defense now ranks 24th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, making this a good matchup for Jacobs. However, it's hard to take him out of the lukewarm section given his usage (13.5 Expected Fantasy Points per Game, RB21). Kenyan Drake continues to take away passing game usage (14 targets in last three games).
Hunter Renfrow (WR, LV)
Hunter Renfrow continues to be Mr. Dependable in full-PPR formats. He's caught 21-of-26 targets for 157 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games. There's no reason to think that he'll slow down any time soon, as he's currently leading Raiders' wideouts with a 20.66% target share. Renfrow has at least seven targets in seven of nine games this season. Bryan Edwards has flashed some potential, but Renfrow is the Raider wideout that you want to start. Consider him a high-floor WR3, especially in full-PPR formats.
Injuries:
There aren't any injuries to fantasy-relevant players in this game.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Spread: Cardinals -2.5
Implied Total: Cardinals (26.0) vs. Seahawks (23.5)
Pace: Cardinals (9th) vs. Seahawks (17th)
Scheme: Cardinals (56% Pass, 44% Rush) vs. Seahawks (57% Pass, 43% Rush)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 37.0% Pass (3rd), -14.3% Rush (22nd)
Seahawks Def. DVOA: 17.3% Pass (25th), -14.9% Rush (11th)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -14.3% Pass (4th), -15.6% Rush (8th)
Seahawks Off. DVOA: 25.0% Pass (10th), -3.4% Rush (12th)
Matchups We Love:
James Conner (RB, ARI)
James Conner has been a touchdown machine this season, scoring 12 times in his last eight games. In his first start without Chase Edmonds, Conner played 81.82% of the snaps. That's phenomenal usage and he'll likely get Kyler Murray back for this game. We could see the Cardinals lean on Conner more than usual to help ease Murray back into action, putting the veteran running back on the RB1 radar in this spot. The Seahawks rank 16th in Rush EPA, allowing the second-most PPR per game to running backs. This is an absolute smash spot for Conner.
Christian Kirk (WR, ARI)
It's also a great matchup for Christian Kirk, who has been the top target in this offense with DeAndre Hopkins sidelined. Kirk has caught 13-of-14 targets for 149 yards in his last two games. During this stretch, he's led the team with a 25.45% target share and 36.53% air yard share. He takes on a Seahawks defense ranked 13th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts, but this could be a good game environment with the Cardinals having a 26-point implied team total.
Matchups We Hate:
Seahawks RBs
Chris Carson (neck) remains out of the lineup and Alex Collins missed Thursday's practice. This means that we could see Rashaad Penny take on a lead role, but it's unclear how the usage will look. That makes this a situation to avoid, especially against a Cardinals defense that ranks 6th in Rush EPA. While this should be a competitive game in a projected shootout, I just can't trust this backfield due to the lack of clarity. I'd avoid this situation.
UPDATE: Carson has been placed on season-ending IR, and Penny is expected to see a bigger workload this week.
Other Matchups:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Kyler Murray is a game-time decision for this game. We have to leave him in the lukewarm section because it's unclear how he'll look in his first game. Will he come back on fire, or will there be some rust like we saw with Russell Wilson last week? Murray takes on a Seahawks defense that ranks 18th in Dropback EPA, so it's an exploitable matchup. However, it's unlikely that we'll see Murray run too much in his first game off an ankle injury. Consider him more of a low-end QB1 in this spot.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Zach Ertz has been pretty solid since joining the Cardinals, catching 14-of-20 targets for 181 yards and a touchdown in four games. Murray's return should give Ertz more opportunities to find the end-zone plus more efficient production. The veteran tight end goes up against a Seahawks defense that is tied for 16th in PPR per game allowed to the position. We could see Ertz find the endzone in this one, he's put up two red-zone targets in four games with the Cardinals this season.
Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)
Russell Wilson turned in a dud against the Packers last week, completing only 50 percent of his passes for 161 yards (4.0 yards per attempt). However, we could give him a mulligan for that performance due to rust as well as poor weather. The Seahawks are in a must-win situation here, so I expect Russ to have a bounce-back game, even against a Cardinals defense that ranks 7th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Consider Wilson as a Top-10 option in this spot.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
D.K. Metcalf currently is tied for 28th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game, but tied for 6th in Fantasy Points Above Expectation, which indicates that he's overperforming his volume. That speaks to Metcalf's talent as a player. He should be able to bounce back from a down week in a good game environment, despite facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 12th in PPR per game to wideouts. Metcalf has an impressive 26.23% target share and 34.73% air yard share this season. Having said that, I have to keep him in the lukewarm section because of how good Arizona's defense has been this season.
Tyler Lockett (WR, SEA)
Tyler Lockett has been disappointing in recent weeks, putting up 35 yards or fewer in five of his last seven games. However, there are reasons for optimism here, as Lockett leads the team with a 27.05% target share and 41.18% air yard share. The Seahawks run-heavy tendencies make Lockett a volatile option at times, but it's likely that the team will have to air it out to keep pace with these Cardinals. Lockett looks like one of the better buy-lows in fantasy football right now. Fire up him as an upside WR2.
Injuries:
ARI WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring)
SEA RB Alex Collins (groin)
SEA TE Gerald Everett (groin)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
Implied Total: Cowboys (26.8) vs. Chiefs (29.3)
Pace: Cowboys (2nd) vs. Chiefs (7th)
Scheme: Cowboys (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Chiefs (60% Pass, 40% Rush)
Cowboys Off. DVOA: 42.3% Pass (2nd), -10.3% Rush (17th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 21.5% Pass (27th), -3.9% Rush (26th)
Cowboys Def. DVOA: -14.4% Pass (3rd), -12.6% Rush (18th)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 27.0% Pass (8th), -3.3% Rush (11th)
Matchups We Love:
Dak Prescott (QB, DAL)
Dak Prescott is currently QB6 in fantasy points per game and QB5 in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. He's finished in the Top-12 in seven of eight games this season, including four in the Top-6. Prescott is in a smash spot in the highest total on the slate, facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 27th in Dropback EPA, allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Cowboys will likely have to air it out to keep pace with this Chiefs offense. This is a terrific spot here.
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL)
Ezekiel Elliott is also in a great spot against a Chiefs defense that ranks 25th in Rush EPA and 17th in PPR per game allowed to opposing running backs. Zeke has high touchdown equity in a terrific game environment, making him a great bet to find the endzone in this spot. There's also a chance that the Cowboys try to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field with their running game. We have to fire up Zeke as an elite RB1 in this terrific spot. The only thing keeping him from the top tier is Tony Pollard.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
CeeDee Lamb is coming off a great game against the Falcons where he caught 6-of-7 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns. The issue here is that he only has two double-digit target games on the season and now Michael Gallup is back in the lineup. However, Lamb has elite separation skills and efficient production. He currently ranks 10th in Fantasy Points Above Expectation per Game. We have to consider him a WR1, but there's always risk of volatile production given how many mouths there are to feed in this offense. He gets a bump with Amari Cooper out for this game.
Dalton Schultz (TE, DAL)
Dalton Schultz caught only 1-of-2 targets for 14 yards in Gallup's return to the lineup. He played 66.23% of the snaps, which was a decrease from his 80% total from Weeks 3-9. Simply put, Gallup takes away some volume from Schultz. This makes him more of a volatile tight end, but he's still a good option in a great offense. However, with Cooper out for this game, Schultz gets a huge bump in value. We have to consider him as a Top-8 option in this projected shootout. The Chiefs rank 26th in PPR per game allowed to tight ends, so this is an exploitable matchup.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
It was great to see Patrick Mahomes find his groove against the Raiders last week, as he shredded them for 406 yards and five touchdowns. Mahomes takes on one of the most improved defenses in the NFL here, as the Cowboys rank 4th in Dropback EPA, so this is a tough matchup. Having said that, the game environment is too good to not include Mahomes in the 'Love' section. Consider him an elite QB1 in this spot. There's a good chance that Mahomes can build on last week's elite performance.
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Tyreek Hill continues to be peppered with targets on a weekly basis, combining for 85 targets in his last seven games. The Cowboys rank 16th in PPR per game allowed to wide receivers, so this is an exploitable matchup in a projected shootout. Hill ranks 2nd behind Cooper Kupp in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. He's an elite WR1 in this terrific game environment. While there's risk that the Chiefs' blowup was a bit of an outlier against a struggling Raiders defense, I'm not betting against this group. Hill should be able to provide elite production here.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Travis Kelce finally had a big game against the Raiders, catching 8-of-10 targets for 119 yards. It was the first time he eclipsed 100 yards since Week 3 against the Chargers. The superstar tight end will have a chance to do it once again in this projected shootout. The Cowboys have given up fantasy production to tight ends, ranking 19th in PPR per game. Kelce is the overall TE1 each and every week, but this looks like a great spot for him to have another spike week.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players in this game.
Other Matchups:
Michael Gallup (WR, DAL)
Michael Gallup returned to the lineup last week, playing 53.25% of the snaps and catching 3-of-5 targets for 42 yards. He had an impressive 36.08% air yard share, which bodes well for his fantasy outlook going forward. He's in a great spot just like Lamb and Schultz, especially with Cooper out. You can fire up Gallup as an upside player on the WR2/3 fringe this week. I'm leaving him in the lukewarm section because we could see the Cooper targets spread between Gallup and Schultz in this spot.
Chiefs RBs
It's unclear if Clyde Edwards-Helaire is able to return for this game. If he does, it muddles this situation because it's unclear if CEH will retain his previous role or if Darrel Williams has earned more usage. If CEH is out, we can put Williams in the 'Love' section. The veteran running back is coming off a fantastic game against the Raiders where he caught all nine of his targets for 101 yards. That's the kind of passing game usage that some expected from CEH, but it hasn't happened. The Cowboys rank 8th in PPR per game allowed to running backs, so this isn't an easy matchup.
UPDATE: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been activated from IR and is expected to serve as the lead RB.
Injuries:
DAL WR Amari Cooper (COVID-19)
KC RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (knee)
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: Chargers -6
Implied Total: Steelers (20.5) vs. Chargers (26.5)
Pace: Steelers (16th) vs. Chargers (1st)
Scheme: Steelers (59% Pass, 41% Rush) vs. Chargers (63% Pass, 37% Rush)
Steelers Off. DVOA: 6.4% Pass (22nd), -14.4% Rush (23rd)
Chargers Def. DVOA: -1.7% Pass (7th), 6.1% Rush (32nd)
Steelers Def. DVOA: 10.1% Pass (15th), -12.8% Rush (17th)
Chargers Off. DVOA: 26.9% Pass (9th), -5.7% Rush (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Najee Harris (RB, PIT)
Najee Harris currently ranks 1st in Expected Fantasy Points per Game among running backs. Harris has finished in the Top-12 in seven of nine games this season, including five Top-10 finishes and two in the Top-5. While the rookie hasn't been efficient, volume is king in fantasy football. He's in a dream matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 32nd in Rush EPA and 27th in PPR per game allowed to running backs. Consider Harris as an elite RB1 in this spot.
Pat Freiermuth (TE, PIT)
Pat Freiermuth had a down week against the Lions, catching 5-of-9 targets for 31 yards, but you have to love the volume. The rookie tight end has been impressive this season. He's now racked up seven or more targets in three of his last four games, including three touchdowns. Freiermuth has established himself as one of Roethlisberger's preferred targets in the red zone. He goes up against a Chargers defense allowing the fifth-most PPR per game to opposing tight ends. Let's go right back to the well with Freiermuth.
Austin Ekeler (RB, LAC)
Austin Ekeler has slowed down in recent weeks, ranking as RB16 in PPR per game in his last four games. However, his target share has increased from 12.5% to 18.8% during that span. The usage is still there, as Ekeler ranks 8th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. The Steelers are actually an exploitable defense on the ground, ranking 22nd in Rush EPA. Ekeler's receiving upside makes him matchup-proof. Consider him as an elite RB1 in this spot with the Chargers as 6-point favorites.
Keenan Allen (WR, LAC)
Keenan Allen has been the clear-cut number-one option in this passing game of late. In the last three games, Allen has put up 35 targets, leading the team with a 33.65% target share. Meanwhile, Mike Williams has put up a 15.38% target share during that span. Allen goes up against a Steelers defense that is tied for 19th in PPR per game allowed to wideouts. Look for Allen to continue to rack up underneath targets, giving him a solid floor as a safe WR2 in this spot. You have to like the 26.5-point implied team total here.
Matchups We Hate:
Chase Claypool (WR, PIT)
Chase Claypool was able to get in a limited practice on Wednesday, so there's a decent chance that he's able to return to the lineup. This is a bad matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 15th in Dropback EPA, allowing the fewest PPR per game to opposing wideouts. As the deep threat for the Steelers with a struggling Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, it's hard to trust Claypool as anything more than a volatile WR3 in this spot. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a WR3 this week.
UPDATE: Chase Claypool was removed from the injury report and is expected to play.
Mike Williams (WR, LAC)
Mike Williams has been a massive disappointment in recent weeks, catching 10-of-21 targets for 137 yards and zero touchdowns in his last four games. It's really tough to trust him right now, as he's essentially devolved into the boom-or-bust wideout we thought he was coming into the season. Originally, I thought that Williams was limited by his knee injury, but head coach Brandon Staley says that the knee isn't affecting him. Perhaps Williams can bounce back against the Steelers this week, but I have to put him in the 'Hate' section due to his recent poor performance.
Other Matchups:
Justin Herbert (QB, LAC)
Justin Herbert has been inconsistent this season, finishing in the Top-3 three times but outside the Top-20 three times. The good news is that he ranks 9th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. The bad news is that this isn't an easy matchup against a Steelers defense that ranks 10th in Dropback EPA, allowing the sixth-fewest PPR per game to quarterbacks. While I'd still consider Herbert in the Top-12 due to the Chargers' pass-heavy tendencies, I have to leave him in the lukewarm section this week.
Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT)
Diontae Johnson continues to be a target machine (28.67% target share), ranking 6th in Expected Fantasy Points per Game. He's coming off a down week, but that was because Ben Roethlisberger was out of the lineup. While this is a tough matchup against the Chargers, Johnson's volume keeps him in play as a matchup-proof WR2 with WR1 upside in the right spots. I'll leave him in the lukewarm section, but it's likely that Johnson will continue to get peppered in this game.
Injuries:
PIT WR Chase Claypool (toe)
Additional Notes:
Ben Roethlisberger and Jared Cook are not fantasy-relevant right now.
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