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Adam Koffler identifies two fantasy football busts and two sleepers at the running back position for 2024. Which players should you draft and which should you avoid?
Back before advanced metrics were a thing, we used to look at yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to determine a player’s value. It’s much more nuanced today, thanks in part to numerous companies that have given life to advanced data. One of those advanced metrics is PlayerProfilers’ Juke Rate, which is essentially a measure of running back elusiveness. Juke Rate is calculated by dividing the number of broken, missed, and avoided tackles by total touches (carries + receptions).
While not a perfect science, this metric can help determine who might be a bust and who might be a sleeper for the upcoming season. Some players might have had a career-low in Juke Rate but were able to overcome their lack of elusiveness with a heavy workload. Others might not have produced a ton of fantasy points, but they had a very high Juke Rate and showcased a level of elusiveness that could earn them more opportunities in the future.
This article takes a look at running back elusiveness from a season ago to uncover some possible busts and sleepers for the upcoming season. Things can change, but remember, running backs do have a shorter shelf-life than a lot of other skill positions on offense. While multiple inputs go into a player’s output, Juke Rate can help paint a solid picture. Here are two busts and two sleepers for the 2024 season.
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2024 RB Busts - Elusiveness
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers
After five seasons with the Raiders, Josh Jacobs now finds himself in Green Bay after signing a four-year, $48M contract in the offseason. On paper, his contract looks big for a running back in today’s NFL, but in reality, he was guaranteed just $12.5M. That’s just $2M more guaranteed than Tony Pollard received from the Titans. The Packers also used premium draft capital on a running back this year. They took USC’s MarShawn Lloyd with the 88th overall pick in the Draft. That was the 4th running back off the board this season. Jacobs is still the RB1 in Green Bay, but Lloyd isn’t going to be red-shirted his rookie season either.
#Packers OC Adam Stenavich on whether MarShawn Lloyd will see limited action his rookie season, ala AJ Dillon:
“No, I would like to get him out there as much as possible. He’s got a skill set that’s a little bit different than AJ’s, as far as his speed… It’ll be nice to get him… pic.twitter.com/PSWW3CbCOZ
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) May 6, 2024
But different from years past, Jacobs is no sure thing to pop in 2024 given his lack of elusiveness in 2023. He registered just a 13.3% Juke Rate last season. In his four seasons prior to 2023, Jacobs never registered a Juke Rate less than 27.5%. He dealt with some injuries last season, but that kind of dropoff in elusiveness is unprecedented. It’s very possible his heavy workload in the last two seasons caught up to him.
Jacobs has had one of the heaviest workloads among all running backs in the last two seasons. His 17.3 weighted opportunities per game in 2023 were 4th behind Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, and Alvin Kamara. However, his lack of elusiveness in 2023 led to just 13.9 fantasy points per game. According to Ryan Heath, a large negative differential in weighted opportunities vs. fantasy points per game often leads to a reduction in volume the following season.
Essentially, there are multiple dings to Jacobs’ potential fantasy value in 2024. First, there’s a chance he’s just washed (given his 53rd-ranked Juke Rate in 2023). Second, Green Bay could drastically lower his weighted opportunities. The latter seems more likely, but the former shouldn’t be ruled out. Consider these two risks when looking at Jacobs in the 2nd and 3rd-round of fantasy drafts this season. Due to his high cost, we could very well be talking about Jacobs as a bust in 2024.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
After a rookie season where he played just 25% of the snaps, James Cook shouldered much of the load in his sophomore campaign. He saw a 55% snap share and 62% opportunity share last season, which led to 13.7 PPR points per game. However, with that increased workload came an exponential decrease in his elusiveness. Cook’s Juke Rate fell to just 14.2% in 2023 compared to 27.7% as a rookie. That 14.2% ranked 49th among running backs last season and was similar to guys like Javonte Williams, A.J. Dillon, and Ezekiel Elliott.
The decrease in elusiveness isn’t necessarily uncommon for undersized running backs taking on a heavier workload. Something similar happened with Pollard last season after Zeke left for New England. The difference between Cook and Pollard, however, is that Pollard still had the 8th-most carries inside the 5-yard line (13). Cook, on the other hand, had just four goal-line carries. Goal-line carries lead to touchdowns, and touchdowns lead to fantasy points. Those high-value opportunities are everything for running backs in fantasy football.
Enter Ray Davis, the Bills’ 4th round pick out of Kentucky. Davis fills in every gap Buffalo is missing with Cook. At 5’8”, 220 lbs, his low center of gravity makes him a tough tackle around the goal line. He’s got a nose for the end zone, as evidenced by his 20 total touchdowns last season. Davis also has the elusiveness that Cook lost with a larger workload last season. Here’s what Dane Brugler had to say about the Bills’ new running back:
Dane Brugler(@dpbrugler) on Bills 4th Round Pick Ray Davis
"With his quick reads and lateral agility, Davis will juke defenders out of their cleats using dynamic plant-and-go cuts."
"His performance against Florida in 2023 might be the best running back tape in this class."… pic.twitter.com/DjgsAIOd8Y
— Peter DiBiasi (@DibiasiPeter) May 11, 2024
Currently, Cook is coming off the board around RB13. Despite playing all 17 games and shouldering the load in 2023, Cook finished as just the RB19 on a per-game basis. And that was playing alongside 33-year-old Latavius Murray rather than Ray Davis. With his elusiveness taking a major hit with the increased workload, don’t expect Buffalo to add much to Cook’s plate in 2024. At RB13, Cook’s price tag is a tough pill to swallow, given the holes in his game.
2024 RB Sleepers - Elusiveness
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans
Tyjae Spears isn’t the biggest back and might not be able to shoulder a full workload, but boy, is he elusive. As a rookie, he had the 4th-highest Juke Rate among running backs at 26.3%. And it wasn’t as if he didn’t play. Spears averaged 10 weighted opportunities per game in 2023 on a 53% snap share. Jaleel McLaughlin, another elusive rookie, averaged just 6.0 weighted opportunities per game last season. So Spears did it even with double-digit weighted opportunities.
Tyjae Spears goes 28 yards for the @Titans TD!
📺: #JAXvsTEN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/X0vcyHUoyR pic.twitter.com/mJoCKcR788— NFL (@NFL) January 7, 2024
Breaking tackles and making guys miss that’s just what Tyjae did last season. And now, instead of competing with Derrick Henry for touches out of the backfield, he’ll be competing with Pollard. Pollard is coming off a season in which he saw his efficiency take a nosedive. Without Zeke, he averaged a career-high 15.1 weighted opportunities. And as a result, he had a career-low 16.3% Juke Rate. Pollard just isn’t built for a large workload.
That’s where Spears enters the picture. Even with a full 17 games played with King Henry, Spears still managed to see a 35% opportunity share. That’s almost guaranteed to increase this season. It even started increasing last season after the Titans’ Week 7 Bye. Before the Bye, Spears averaged 7.7 touches per game. After the Bye, that went up to 9.6 per game. From Week 13 on, he got 12.2 touches per game and produced 12.6 PPR points per game. That was more than Pollard’s 11.6 PPR points per game during that stretch.
On Underdog, Pollard currently has an average draft position (ADP) of 94.0 (RB27), while Spears has an ADP of 120.2 as RB38. If last year is any indication of future success and fantasy production, these ADPs should be flipped. In any case, Spears is looking like one of the top running back sleepers this season based on the elusiveness he showed as a young rookie.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Believe it or not, Jaylen Warren has been one of the most elusive runners in the NFL in the last two seasons. He was signed by the Steelers in the 2022 offseason after being undrafted out of Oklahoma State. He played sparingly as a rookie (25.4% opportunity share), yet showed a lot of promise on his touches. Warren was 5th among running backs in both Juke Rate (40%) and yards created per touch (3.82) that season.
He parlayed his rookie season into even more playing time in his second year. Warren nearly doubled his weighted opportunities, going from 6.1 per game to 12.1 per game. With that jump in work, one might have expected his elusiveness to dip. But it didn’t. In fact, Warren led all backs in Juke Rate (31.9%) and was 5th in evaded tackles (67), 3rd in yards created per touch (4.65), and 7th in yards per touch (5.5). Just look at how elusive this guy is:
.@steelers @Nunless2 is special… cant wait for how he produces with this rebuilt offensive line..Anticipation is driving me crazy. #herewego #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/4lnWQy7WQj
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) May 22, 2024
Sure, he still has to fend off Najee Harris, but the former 1st-rounder has seen his weighted opportunities decrease each of the last three seasons since entering the league. He started as a bell-cow in 2021, averaging 19.5 weighted opportunities per game. In 2022, that number dropped to 14.5, and in 2023, just 12.5 weighted opportunities per game.
Harris and Warren nearly split the workload in half last season, but it was Warren who had the edge in fantasy points per opportunity (0.88 vs. 0.67). However, it was Harris who dominated touches in the red zone (47 vs. 24). With Arthur Smith hired as the new offensive coordinator, things could certainly change in 2024. Heck, Brogan Noey of Steelers Nation even thinks it makes sense to start the Jaylen Warren era now while Najee Harris is still on the roster. That way, the Steelers have a backup plan for the 2024 season if Warren doesn’t plan out as the 1A.
Even with an early Underdog ADP of 90.7 (RB25), Warren is still being slept on. Don’t miss out!
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