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The NFC West marks our final entry in this series, and it’s a good one. Much like the AFC West, this division offers plenty of fantasy football goodness. There are plenty of high-value players to target, and just a few you should be avoiding. The 49ers and Seahawks offer fantasy managers plenty of excellent fantasy football players. Surprisingly, for their cost, so do the Rams and Cardinals. Let's take a look at a few players fantasy managers should be targeting this year.
If you have missed the first few entries into this series, you can find them below:
As I’ve tried to make evident throughout this series: we’re not so much looking to identify good and bad fantasy football players. Rather, we’re looking to identify good and bad prices. That could mean a good player has a bad price or a not-so-good player has a good price. This is what we’re focusing on, the cost of acquisition. We should never be all-in or all-out on a player. Our interest is always cost-dependent. Fantasy football draft season keeps inching closer and closer, so use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.
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Arizona Cardinals
Players to Target- RB James Conner
James Conner is currently being drafted as the RB26 by Yahoo! fantasy managers, which falls out to the seventh round. This is a steal, ladies and gentlemen. Conner's 2022 season was impacted by injuries, causing him to miss four games and play fewer than 35% of the snaps in two additional contests. However, if we look at the other 11 games, a clear picture emerges. It's evident that Conner is a hidden workhorse running back that fantasy managers shouldn't be ignoring this season.
| Time Period | Snap % | CPG | RuPG | TPG | RPG | RYPG | TTPG | SYPG |
| 11 Healthy Weeks | 79.2% | 15.2 | 63.8 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 24.2 | 19.1 | 88 |
| 17-Game Pace | 258 | 1,085 | 82 | 66 | 411 | 324 | 1,496 |
Conner was one of the most heavily used running backs in the passing game last season, and that shouldn't change this year. While there may be some concerns about the quarterback change in the early part of the year, there's a possibility that it could benefit Conner in terms of PPR scoring.
Comparing Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy's intended air yards per attempt from last season, Murray averaged 6.9 while McCoy averaged 6.5. Additionally, Murray had more deep targets per start than McCoy. This shouldn't be surprising, as backup quarterbacks tend to be less inclined to push the ball deep down the field. As a result, McCoy may rely more on Conner's receiving abilities out of the backfield.
Even when Murray returns to the lineup, his torn ACL could potentially limit his rushing ability, at least in the early part of the season. This situation could also result in more running back targets for Conner. Despite his age, Arizona opted not to make significant additions to their running back room.
The depth chart behind Conner consists of Keaontay Ingram, Corey Clement, and Ty'Son Williams. With such a thin running back room, it is highly likely that Conner will be required to handle a ton of snaps and touches in Arizona's offense.
While it's true that Arizona's offense may not provide Conner with frequent touchdown opportunities, he is expected to receive a large number of touches on a weekly basis. A good portion of those touches could come from receptions, which boosts his fantasy value in PPR scoring formats.
If you’re worried about the state of the offense, I get it. If you’re worried about Conner’s previous availability, I get it. If you’re worried about the quarterback situation, I get it. But all of those things are more than baked into his current price. In those 11 games previously mentioned, he averaged 14.9 half-PPR PPG. In 2022, that would have ranked as the RB8 for the season. Despite that, he’s available at RB26. He is absolutely a player to target at his current price.
Players to Avoid- None
Due to the quarterback concerns, all of the prices for Arizona’s fantasy-relevant players are very low. Most of them are closer to being players to target rather than avoid. Take Kyler Murray. He’s being drafted as the QB23 in the 12th round. He may start on the PUP. He may not. Carson Wentz only missed two games. Deshaun Watson, when he tore his ACL in college, didn’t miss any games the following season. We don’t know.
What we do know is this: Murray has finished as the QB11 (17.8 PPG) as a rookie, QB4 (23.7 PPG) in 2020, QB4 (21.5 PPG) in 2021, and QB7 (18.2 PPG) this past season. He’s a fine upside play at his current cost with minimal risk.
Marquise Brown is being drafted as the WR32 in the seventh round. Rondale Moore is being drafted as the WR56 in the 12th round. With DeAndre Hopkins released, both of these players shouldn’t be avoided at their current costs. They should both be highly targeted.
In the first six weeks of the 2022 season, Brown was the WR8 and was averaging 14.7 half-PPR PPG. This isn’t the first time he was on the verge of a breakout, only to have injuries intervene. In fact, you’ll be blown away by who Brown compares to over the past two seasons. Be sure to find out in my Blind Wide Receiver Resume article. As for Moore, he also has plenty of upside at his current cost.
Both Arizona tight ends Trey McBride (TE26) and Zach Ertz (TE28) make for fine dart throws in the 17th-18th round of your drafts. Ertz was on pace for 117 targets, 80 receptions, 690 yards, and seven touchdowns last year, displaying the tight end position was heavily targeted in this offense.
Los Angeles Rams
Players to Target- RB Cam Akers
Cam Akers had two very different seasons in 2022. In the first 11 weeks, Akers had a limited snap share of just 25.2%, which included two inactive games due to his trade request. If we eliminate his two DNPs, his snap share over the first 11 weeks was 31.4%.
However, when a trade didn't materialize, the Rams and Akers were forced to make amends. Following the surprise release of Darrell Henderson Jr., head coach Sean McVay entrusted Akers with the starting role in Week 12. This decision came amidst a challenging season for the Rams that was marked by injuries to key players such as Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp. What happened next was truly unexpected.
Despite the absence of their best offensive player, their starting quarterback, and running behind one of the worst offensive lines in all of football, Cam Akers dominated. His impressive performance during this period is highlighted in the table below. Notably, the Rams only made one addition to their running back room during the offseason, selecting sixth-round rookie Zach Evans. As the saying goes, actions speak louder than words. This move by the Rams was a ringing endorsement for Akers and his 2023 prospects.
| Time Period | RAPG | RYPG | TPG | RPG | ReYPG | TTPG | SYPG |
| Weeks 12–18 | 16.0 | 78.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 14.1 | 17.6 | 92.5 |
| 17-Game Pace | 272 | 1,333 | 29 | 27 | 240 | 299 | 1,573 |
Akers' performance during that stretch goes beyond his impressive counting stats, as he proved to be one of the most effective rushers in the NFL. His average of 4.9 yards per carry would have ranked 12th for the 2022 season. Additionally, his average of 2.5 yards after contact per rush would have placed him second in the league.
He also showcased elusiveness, with a broken tackle rate of 9.8%, which would have ranked as the sixth-highest. Furthermore, he exceeded expectations by averaging 0.47 rushing yards over expected, placing him 14th in the league.
He wasn't solely reliant on volume during those final seven games of the season. He stood out as one of the top running backs in the league overall, and it all translated to fantasy production. During this span, he averaged 14.9 half-PPR PPG, which would’ve been the RB8 on the season. He did have 33.7 points in a game, which certainly helped. But his median output during this sample was 13.8, which would’ve been RB10 on the season.
With the return of Stafford and Kupp, Akers' job should become even easier, and his scoring potential is likely to increase. Head coach Sean McVay has a proven track record of utilizing one primary running back, and it appears that Akers will assume that role in 2023. This was evident in his usage late last season, where he averaged a 67.5% snap share per game and handled 60.5% of the team's rushing attempts. Both of these numbers would have placed him inside the top 10 among running backs if maintained over the course of a full season.
Those numbers actually improved once the team got inside the red zone. Akers' snap share jumped to 78% in the red zone, and he handled nearly 80% of the team's carries. With his strong finish last season, Akers is one running back fantasy managers can target. He’s currently being drafted by Yahoo! fantasy managers as the RB23 in the sixth round.
Considering the Rams' offensive potential and if they can regain their form, Akers will likely have a stranglehold on this backfield. He could be one of the bigger surprises this fantasy season.
Players to Avoid- None
Much like Arizona, fantasy managers are highly skeptical about the Rams’ offense this season. Thus, most of the prices for their fantasy-relevant players are very fair. The biggest name, Cooper Kupp, is drafted as the WR3 with the No. 4 overall pick. All indications out of Los Angeles are that Matthew Stafford is healthy, which makes Kupp very appealing.
Eliminating the week he was injured last year, he averaged 20.3 half-PPR PPG. This was No. 1 among receivers and No. 1 among all non-quarterbacks. In 2021, he averaged 21.6 half-PPR PPG. He makes for an excellent selection early in the first round.
Other pass-catchers include Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee, who are being drafted as the WR72 and TE15 in the 12th and 16th rounds, respectively. Higbee had 108 targets last season, which was the fourth-highest among tight ends. That kind of volume at his position makes him a fine dart throw late in drafts. If Stafford is healthy, Higbee has touchdown upside along with a high-volume role relative to tight ends.
The Rams desperately lack options behind Kupp, which is also what makes Jefferson appealing. In 2021, prior to an injury-plagued 2022 season, Jefferson finished with 89 targets, 50 receptions, 802 yards, and six touchdowns as the team’s No. 3 receiver behind Kupp and Robert Woods/Odell Beckham Jr. Jefferson is a sneaky addition late in drafts if he can return to his 2021 form. You can read more about him and other sleeper receivers here.
Especially in Superflex and 2-QB leagues, Matthew Stafford isn’t a player to avoid. The health risk is taken into account with his price. He’s currently available as the QB21 in the 11th round. In 2021, he was the QB11. If he’s healthy, he has a good chance to be a strong QB2. The Rams’ defense isn’t as good as it used to be a few seasons ago, which could put this offense into pass-heavy game scripts.
San Francisco 49ers
Players to Target- WR Deebo Samuel
Deebo Samuel was unable to repeat his epic 2021 campaign in 2022, which has caused his 2023 ADP to drop. Yahoo! fantasy managers are currently drafting him as the WR17 late in the third round. I will admit I wasn’t as high on Samuel earlier in the summer, but I’ve come around on him quite a bit.
I believe he’s a player fantasy managers should be very happy to draft at his current price. For starters, he was Brock Purdy’s go-to receiver last season. In the table below, you’ll find the stats of San Francisco’s four primary pass-catchers in four games Purdy was behind center.
| Week 13–14 and Weeks 18-20 | |||||
| Player | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game | Target Per Route Run |
| D, Samuel | 25.% | 6.8 | 4.4 | 59.8 | 27% |
| B, Aiyuk | 19.1% | 5.2 | 3.2 | 52.2 | 19% |
| C, McCaffrey | 19.1% | 5.2 | 4.2 | 37.4 | 27% |
| G, Kittle | 16.2% | 4.4 | 3.4 | 42.2 | 18% |
Looking at the numbers above, it’s clear that Samuel was his primary and favorite receiver. His per-game averages from above extrapolated over 17 games equals 116 targets, 75 receptions, and 1,017 yards. That does not include any rushing stats, either. Granted this is a small sample size, it’s still definitely encouraging regarding Samuel’s 2023 fantasy value.
Samuel hurt his knee in Week 14 and returned the final week of the season, but he was used sparingly. Looking at only the games he played in Weeks 1-14, he averaged 11.4 half-PPR PPG. This would’ve ranked WR19 on the season, which is admittedly two spots behind his current ranking this season.
However, during this time, he caught just two touchdowns despite having 91 targets. That’s a touchdown rate of just 2.2%. Meanwhile, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk finished with 6.7% and 8.1% touchdown rates during this span, respectively. There’s a very good chance these numbers regress to the mean, with Aiyuk and Kittle scoring less and Samuel scoring more.
During those first 14 weeks, Samuel had 41 rushes, 238 rushing yards, and three rushing scores. He was on pace for 58 carries, 337 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. If you combine that with his on-pace receiving stats, he would’ve finished with 1,354 scrimmage yards and 75 receptions. Looking at that kind of utilization with the touchdown progression we should see in 2023, Samuel becomes a player fantasy managers should be happy to draft at the end of the third round.
Players to Avoid- TE George Kittle
Typically, I push back on the whole “there are too many mouths to feed” narrative. Oftentimes, it’s said about three players. Usually, one of the players isn’t really on the same level as the other two. However, in San Francisco, I’m buying these concerns. While we have a small sample of games where Kittle played with Samuel, Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey, it’s enough to be concerned. Below is a table of the six games where Samuel, Aiyuk, CMC, and Kittle shared the field.
| Weeks 10-13 and Weeks 18-20 | |||||
| Player | Target Share | Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Receiving Yards Per Game | Target Per Route Run |
| D, Samuel | 24.5% | 7.3 | 4.3 | 54.3 | 26% |
| B, Aiyuk | 20.2% | 6.0 | 3.9 | 53.3 | 21% |
| C, McCaffrey | 20.2% | 6.0 | 4.9 | 39.4 | 26% |
| G, Kittle | 13.9% | 4.1 | 3.0 | 44.9 | 16% |
Certainly, when you look at the numbers above, there’s cause for concern. Kittle’s per-game averages amount to 70 targets, 51 receptions, and 763 yards over 17 games. Another concern is that his 2022 yards per game average was just 51.0 yards. That’s the lowest since his rookie season by a long shot. In fact, his closest average was last year at 65.0, which was down from his 79.3 yards per game average in 2020. Unfortunately, we’re trending in the wrong direction. He was held to under 40 yards in 11 out of 15 games last season!
While Kittle did end up averaging a very healthy 11.4 points in half-PPR scoring, which ranked second among tight ends, he scored 38.7% of his points via touchdowns. This brings us to another red flag with Kittle -- his touchdown rate and the incoming regression.
- 2018 TD Rate — 3.67%
- 2019 TD Rate — 4.67%
- 2020 TD Rate — 3.17%
- 2021 TD Rate — 6.38%
- 2022 TD Rate — 12.79%
Can you spot the outlier? His 2022 touchdown rate is completely unsustainable. Excluding his rookie season, his pre-2022 touchdown rate was 4.50%. His 2022 rate was 184% higher than his pre-2022 touchdown rate average. Think about that.
Yahoo! fantasy managers are drafting him as the TE4 early in the sixth round. Considering the concerns about his three-year dip in his yards per game, the guaranteed regression in his touchdown rate, and the concerning target share he had last year, there are a lot of risks in investing such a premium pick in Kittle.
Seattle Seahawks
Players to Target- WR Tyler Lockett
This has been an ongoing trend for years. Tyler Lockett performs well and outplays his ADP. By the next offseason, fantasy managers have concerns about this, that, or the other thing. And once again, his ADP drops much lower than where he finished the season before. It’s a fantasy football tradition, and this year is no different. When the Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba, it guaranteed that Lockett would once again be disrespected and become a very nice draft-day value, and here we are.
| Year | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Half-PPR PPG |
| 2018 | 70 | 57 | 965 | 10 | 12.1 (WR21) |
| 2019 | 110 | 82 | 1057 | 8 | 12.1 (WR23) |
| 2020 | 132 | 100 | 1054 | 10 | 13.5 (WR12) |
| 2021 | 107 | 73 | 1175 | 8 | 12.8 (WR13) |
| 2022 | 117 | 84 | 1033 | 9 | 12.2 (WR17) |
| Average | 107 | 79 | 1057 | 9 | 12.5 |
Yahoo! fantasy managers currently have Lockett as the WR30, and he’s being drafted in the sixth round. However, looking at the table above, he hasn’t finished outside of the top 20 since 2019, when he finished as the WR23. That was the closest he's come in five years to his current WR30 preseason ranking. The thing about Lockett is the production isn’t fake. The dude is just really, really good at football, as evidenced by the table below. You’ll see Lockett routinely ranks in the top 20 in several of the most predictive efficiency metrics.
| Year | Target Share | Yards Per Route Run | Yards Per Target |
Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
|
| 2018 | 22.8% | 2.07 (26th) | 8.8 (23rd) | 1.94 (20th) |
| 2019 | 24.0% | 2.58 (9th) | 11.0 (4th) | 2.37 (6th) |
| 2020 | 24.6% | 1.74 (50th) | 8.0 (62nd) | 1.87 (16th) |
| 2021 | 22.3% | 2.37 (21st) | 9.6 (17th) | 2.04 (16th) |
| 2022 | 17.7% | 2.67 (14th) | 13.6 (1st) | 2.26 (11th) |
It is okay to think JSN is not ideal for Lockett while also believing that at WR30, Lockett is still a player to target. Both of those things can be true, and they are for me. It would’ve been best for Lockett had they drafted a defensive player instead of JSN. But at the same time, the effect of JSN on Lockett’s ADP has gone too far.
Lockett has been an incredibly productive and efficient receiver for the past five years. He’s shown no signs of slowing down. At WR30, whatever risk JSN presents, the price more than reflects that. It’s also certainly possible, maybe even plausible, that the Seahawks intend to throw the ball more in 2023 with their new trio of receivers. Either way, Lockett in the sixth round makes for a fine selection.
Players to Avoid- RB Kenneth Walker III
When it comes to Kenneth Walker III, there are reasons fantasy managers should be concerned, especially at his current price. The 2023 NFL Draft certainly was not forgiving to Walker. In the first round, the Seahawks selected the star receiver out of Ohio State, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, indicating they may have intentions to pass the ball more.
Then, in the second round, they selected Zach Charbonnet, the running back out of UCLA. Over the past two seasons, he's had 2,496 rushing yards and 27 rushing scores. He's also played a sizable role in UCLA's passing game with 61 receptions and 518 receiving yards. As a senior, he posted a 14.5% target share. According to PlayerProfiler, that was in the 93rd percentile.
Rashaad Penny went down in Week 5. From Weeks 6-18 (excluding Week 13 when Walker left early due to injury), he handled 74.0% of Seattle's rushing attempts. This would have ranked as the fourth-highest percentage among running backs last season. He also averaged 20.2 carries per game, which would have finished as the second-highest among running backs.
With the selection of Charbonnet, you can guarantee Walker's role will decrease in 2023. Not only that, but Pete Carroll's history has had very limited involvement for running backs in the passing game.
| Year | RB Targets |
| 2022 | 84 (26th) |
| 2021 | 67 (32nd) |
| 2020 | 98 (19th) |
| 2019 | 83 (27th) |
| 2018 | 85 (31st) |
We can safely assume Walker will not handle as many carries as he did last year when Penny went down. With Charbonnet's collegiate profile as a receiver far exceeding Walker's, there's significant concern about the kind of involvement Walker might have in the passing game. Especially considering just how little Carroll has used running backs in this area. He was a very efficient running back but could be limited by minimal targets and more of a committee-based approach in 2023.
There's no denying Walker's talent as a runner. Still, there are plenty of questions about his ability to pay off at his current price, considering the very strong likelihood Charbonnet will get a bigger slice of the pie regarding the team's rushing attempts.
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