Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids- AFC East Breakdowns For Gabriel Davis, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Garrett Wilson, more

Rob looks at each NFL team in the AFC East and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2023.

This is the third entry in this new series that looks at fantasy players you should be targeting and avoiding from each team. This series is divided into the eight different divisions across the NFL. For this particular article, players from the AFC East will be evaluated using their Yahoo! half-PPR ADPs. As is the case with almost everything in life, cost is everything and this will be the driving force of this article.

Looking at the AFC East, the division offers many high-value targets such as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Rhamondre Stevenson. However, there are very few options in the second-tier and flex-level starters. That made this particular edition more difficult than the previous two entries on the AFC North and the NFC North.

Be sure to look out for future entries, which will include the NFC East, AFC/NFC South, and AFC/NFC West. With fantasy football draft season right around the corner, don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

Buffalo Bills

Players to Target- WR Gabriel Davis

Last offseason, fantasy football Twitter spent countless hours debating Gabriel Davis' fantasy value. A disappointing year where Davis struggled with a high-ankle sprain and missed two games caused fantasy managers to be largely turned off by the Davis experience. However, there has been a significant overcorrection to his fantasy value.

Last year, he finished as the WR32 in half-PPR points per game (PPG). He had an average of 10.2 PPG, just 0.2 points behind Michael Pittman Jr. He also had a higher PPG average than Garrett Wilson. Unfortunately, he was drafted as a WR2 last season. Now, fantasy managers are valuing Davis in the same manner they did last year but in the opposite way.

He finished the 2022 season with 93 targets, 48 receptions, 836 yards, and seven touchdowns. This marked his third straight season with at least six touchdowns. He was on pace for just under 950 yards, and all the reasons Davis got hyped up last year are still present.

The Bills still lack a true No. 2 target, giving him ample opportunity to attract Josh Allen's attention. Despite the disappointment, he still posted an 18% target share. This may not be too exciting, but it carries more weight in Buffalo with Allen at quarterback and the pass-heavy nature of Buffalo's offense.

Interestingly, Davis finished 10 spots higher last year than his current draft position. Fantasy managers on Yahoo! are currently selecting him as the WR42. This may evoke some ill-advised feelings from readers, but we should never be all-in or all-out on any player. The most important factor in any fantasy debate comes down to price. Last year, Davis' ADP as a WR2 was much too high. This year, his current ADP at WR42 is too low.

Players to Avoid- RB Damien Harris

Damien Harris currently has an ADP of RB40, which is far from expensive. What is the upside in Buffalo? Especially with James Cook, their 2022 second-round pick, in the backfield, too. Over the past three seasons, since Josh Allen became the Josh Allen we all know now, the running backs have averaged 303 carries per season. That's a huge red flag, indicating limited opportunity in this backfield.

Additionally, Harris provides next to nothing in the passing game. He has never had 25 targets, 20 receptions, or 150 receiving yards in any of his four seasons in the NFL. A lot of the love Harris receives as a late-round pick is associated with his touchdown potential, but how realistic is that?

Last year, all of the Bills' running backs combined for just seven rushing touchdowns. In 2021, they scored 12 rushing touchdowns. In 2020, they scored eight times on the ground. Over the last three years, all the running backs in Buffalo have combined for just nine rushing scores each season.

Cook was one of the more efficient rushers last season, albeit on a smaller sample size, but Buffalo likely wants to get him the ball more. The Bills also signed free agent Latavius Murray, who could factor into this backfield. Considering the workload history of Buffalo running backs, it seems challenging to project Harris for more than 150 carries this season.

Based on their historical averages over the past three seasons, this would roughly account for a 50% share. Realistically, it could be even less than that if Cook receives 50% of the workload and Murray handles a few carries as well. Even if we assume 150 carries for Harris, that puts him around 600-675 yards rushing and contributes minimally in the passing game.

Ultimately, this all comes down to touchdowns. There just haven't been enough of those in recent years for fantasy managers to get excited about. In two out of the past three seasons, all of the Bills' running backs combined didn't even score nine rushing touchdowns.

Personally, Zay Flowers or Skyy Moore are the better draft picks in Harris' range. Then draft a pure handcuff running back later such as Jaylen Warren, or take a flier on rookie Roschon Johnson and the ambiguous Chicago backfield.

Miami Dolphins

Players to Target- RB De'Von Achane, RB Raheem Mostert, and RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

Fantasy managers are treating every Miami RB as if Dalvin Cook is already in Miami, but that's certainly not a guarantee. Achane is currently being drafted on Yahoo! as the RB41, Mostert is at RB48, and Wilson is at RB56. They'll cost fantasy managers a 10th, 13th, or 14th-round pick, respectively.

If Cook had already signed in Buffalo or Denver, how would that change the ADPs of the three running backs already in Miami? They would all absolutely shoot up. The Miami offense is a high-scoring unit, and this backfield is going to produce either one elite running back or several fantasy-relevant ones (think RB3).

Taking any of these players in the 10th, 13th, or 14th rounds is not going to ruin your draft or destroy your season. If Cook does end up signing with Miami, then your 10th, 13th, or 14th-rounder will end up busting. This happens to the vast majority of players going in this range. That's the status quo in those ranges.

However, all that needs to happen for Achane, Mostert, and Wilson to be significant values is for Cook to sign with any of the other 31 teams. Currently, Cook is +125 to end up in Miami, which implies a 56% chance that he does not sign in Miami.

Out of these three players, Achane should primarily be targeted because he's the most talented and explosive of the trio. The other target would be Wilson because he's the cheapest. After he was traded to Miami, he worked in a 50/50 timeshare with Mostert. Therefore, it makes sense to draft the cheaper one if the team decides to bring along the rookie slowly in the event Cook ends up elsewhere.

Players to Avoid- None

There's no reason to avoid any players on the Miami offense right now. Tua Tagovailoa is being drafted as the QB12, which is a favorable position to target him. He was one of the most efficient passers last year when he was healthy and should be expected to continue that trend this year.

Tyreek Hill is currently being drafted as the WR4, and Jaylen Waddle is being drafted as the WR11. Neither of these price points should deter fantasy managers. Both players are appropriately valued and can be drafted accordingly.

New England Patriots

Players to Target- TE Mike Gesicki and TE Hunter Henry

Both of these tight ends are going incredibly late, where they're borderline free and just waiver-wire fodder. Gesicki is being drafted as the TE22 in the 15th round, while Henry finds himself going off the board as TE28 in the 18th round. Most 12-team leagues don't even have an 18th-round.

With limited options in the New England offense, Rhamondre Stevenson is appropriately valued as a backend RB1. He's the only player who holds starter value on the Patriots. No one else is likely even in the flex equation. This doesn't leave us with many options to choose from, but Gesicki and Henry are intriguing.

The New England offense significantly lacks talent at receiver. JuJu Smith-Schuster is likely the best out of the bunch, but even he is just a low-level slot player. DeVante Parker has struggled with injuries in recent seasons and has been a one-hit-wonder for the most part.

2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton disappointed mightily as a rookie and was widely regarded as a massive reach by Bill Belichick. His first-year play certainly supports that narrative. Quarterback Mac Jones is going to have to throw the ball somewhere. Considering offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's history of using two tight end sets the last time he was in New England, it shouldn't be surprising if both Gesicki and Henry are utilized considerably.

“Mike Gesicki was great to watch this spring. He's a natural pass-catcher and a fluid mover...He can run the seam, win foot races across the field, has a large catch radius, and surprised me with his ability to shake defenders at the top of routes.” https://t.co/eBP51mcbVl

— NFL Beat Writers (@32BeatWriters) June 17, 2023

Of the two, Gesicki seems to have the most upside. He's more athletic and was often deployed as a receiver during his time with Miami. He was on the trade block last year as he did not fit what Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel wanted from the position. He has been productive in previous seasons, most recently in 2020 and 2021 when he finished with over 700 yards in back-to-back seasons.

As for Henry, in his first season with the Patriots, he found the end zone nine times. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if one of these two tight ends becomes fantasy-relevant. The offense is in desperate need of pass-catchers. Through the early part of OTAs, it appears that they're focusing on the tight ends being a big part of their game plan.

Players to Avoid- WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn't had a target share above 20% since 2018. In the four years since that season, his target share has remained between 14.5% and 19.5%. Even on a high-passing volume offense with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, that kind of target share only provided him with WR3 value.

In New England, it won't have the same impact. Last season, the Patriots had just 540 passes, which is 110 fewer than Kansas City. If we allocate an 18% target share to Smith-Schuster on 550 passes, he would end up with only 99 targets. There's simply no upside here. The best-case scenario is a WR3 finish, and that's being optimistic.

Considering his WR44 cost on Yahoo!, fantasy managers are not getting much of a discount for such a limited ceiling. It would be wiser for fantasy managers to target players like Rashod Bateman, Michael Thomas, Zay Flowers, or even Jameson Williams, who are available at a similar price tag.

New York Jets

Players to Target- WR Garrett Wilson

Fantasy managers are certainly bullish on Wilson now that Aaron Rodgers is in New York. He's currently being selected as the WR10 with a mid-second-round ADP. It's an aggressive position, but fantasy managers shouldn't be scared away by the cost. There's a decent chance Wilson could even outperform his current preseason ranking.

The upgrades Rodgers will bring to the Jets' pass-catchers are almost unimaginable due to their significant impact. In the following table, Rodgers' career completion percentage, yards per attempt average, and touchdown rate are compared to the number of attempts the Jets' quarterbacks threw last season.

The difference is substantial and almost unbelievable. We're talking about 52 more completions, 788 more yards, and an absolutely ridiculous 24 more touchdowns. Davante Adams is excluded from the following analysis due to his extremely high ceiling, even for Wilson.

When we examine some of the best Packers receivers, it was found that Greg Jennings averaged a 60% catch rate with Rodgers. This results in an average of 15.2 yards per reception (YPR). He also scored a touchdown on 6.9% of his targets. Jordy Nelson had a catch rate of 65.8%, an average of 14.3 YPR, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%.

James Jones had a catch rate of 60%, an average of 14.4 YPR, and a touchdown rate of 8.2%. Randall Cobb had a catch rate of 69.6%, an average of 11.9 YPR, and a touchdown rate of 6.1%. Considering how well other previous highly skilled receivers performed with Rodgers, fantasy managers should expect Wilson to exceed expectations.

If we maintain Wilson's target volume from last season (147) but give him a 62.5% completion rate and a 14.0 YPR average, he would finish with 92 receptions and 1,288 yards. With a 7.0% touchdown rate, he would have 10 touchdowns. This results in a 13.8 half-PPR PPG average. Last year, the WR10 averaged 13.4 half-PPR PPG.

Players to Avoid- WR Allen Lazard

If Wilson cannot be acquired, why would fantasy managers look to draft another piece of the New York Jets passing game? It seems highly probable that after Wilson, this passing game will employ a receiver-by-committee approach. With Corey Davis, Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb, and Tyler Conklin, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where any one player separates themselves from the pack.

If that does happen, the most likely options would be Lazard or Corey Davis. However, Lazard carries a WR52 ADP on Yahoo!, while Davis is at WR100. Davis has been the more productive player in his career and is widely considered to be more talented. Need proof? Let's look at the per-game averages last season when they both played 50% of the snaps in any given week (both missed time due to injuries).

Lazard averaged 5.6 targets, 2.8 receptions, and 47.4 receiving yards per game (YPG). Davis, on the other hand, averaged 6.6 targets, 4.0 receptions, and 52.5 receiving YPG. Considering one was catching passes from Zach Wilson and the other from Rodgers, the difference is relatively insignificant.

Similar to Smith-Schuster earlier, the best-case scenario for Lazard is a WR3, but even that seems unlikely. Fantasy managers are better off aiming higher. Players such as Zay Flowers, Skyy Moore, Nico Collins, Rashee Rice, and Jonathan Mingo offer more upside. Apart from Flowers, who is drafted just before Lazard, all of them come at a lower cost.

As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

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