Fantasy Football Draft Targets And Avoids- NFC South Breakdowns For Kyle Pitts, Alvin Kamara, Rachaad White, more

July 11, 2023

Rob looks at each NFL team in the NFC South and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2023.

Much like the AFC South, the NFC South lacks fantasy football power. Most of these teams are going through rebuilds, so fantasy managers have been skeptical about investing in most players in this division. Unfortunately, due to a lack of talent, there are not a lot of players to target. However, there are a few players you need to avoid even if their price is being lowered due to concerns with their teams' offenses.

If you missed the first few entries in this series, you can find them below:

• AFC North
• NFC North
• AFC East
• NFC East
• AFC South

As I've made evident throughout this series, we're not looking to identify good and bad fantasy football players. Rather, we are looking to identify good and bad values. That could mean a good player has a bad value or a not-so-great player has a good value. The cost of acquisition is our focus because we should never be all-in or all-out on a player. Our interest is always cost-dependent. Fantasy football draft season keeps getting closer, so use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

Atlanta Falcons

Players to Target- TE Kyle Pitts

Kyle Pitts is currently being drafted by Yahoo! fantasy managers as the TE5 in half-PPR scoring, requiring a sixth-round pick. There's no reason not to buy Pitts at this cost. Fantasy managers are likely backing away from the incredibly talented tight end after two disappointing fantasy seasons.

However, Pitts' rookie season could hardly be classified as a disappointment. He had over 1,000 yards, for crying out loud. Over the last 25 NFL seasons, just 37 tight ends have had 1,000 yards. That's roughly 1.5 per year, and Pitts was one of them as a rookie. In the last 25 years, Pitts is the only rookie tight end to accomplish that feat. In fact, in the previous 25 years, no rookie tight end has ever had 900 yards. His fantasy production didn't follow because of an unfortunate touchdown rate.

Just how unfortunate was it? Since 1998, there have been 134 tight ends who have received 100 or more targets. Pitts had 110 as a rookie. Only three of those 134 scored just one touchdown. None scored fewer. 95 out of the 134 scored at least five touchdowns, and 44 scored eight or more. I recommend caution against putting too much weight on such an outlier of a season.

Injuries and insufficient pass attempts held him back in his second year. The Falcons attempted just 24.4 passes per game, which ranked 31st. However, four teams in the past nine years finished with a pass attempt per game average below 27.5, so we have another outlier. Luckily, in Desmond Ridder's four starts, the passing volume increased to 28.5 attempts per game. That's still low, but it's high enough for Pitts to be a major fantasy asset.

Last year, Pitts had a 26.6% target share, which gives a baseline of what to expect from him in 2023. If Atlanta averages 28 passes per game, Pitts will finish with around 115-130 targets, equating to a 24-27% target share. If you're looking for a more in-depth read on why you should target Pitts, you can find that here. Pitts is an X-factor that fantasy managers can acquire with just a sixth-round pick.

Players to Avoid- None

There's no one fantasy managers need to be avoiding from the Falcons. Rookie running back Bijan Robinson is ranked as the RB4 with a 9.0 ADP by Yahoo! fantasy managers. Given what we know about his prospect status and draft capital, this is a fair price. Drake London is ranked as the WR29 with a sixth-round ADP. If anything, London is another player fantasy managers should be targeting. These are largely the only fantasy-relevant players on the Falcons.

Carolina Panthers

Players to Target- WR Jonathan Mingo

The Panthers are a team and an offense in the middle of a massive transition. These things often take time. They hired a new head coach in Frank Reich and drafted quarterback Bryce Young first overall in the NFL Draft. There are many reasons for optimism, but will any of them come to fruition in 2023? Wisely, fantasy managers are skeptical. However, if there's a player from the Panthers' squad fantasy managers should be targeting, it's rookie wide receiver, Jonathan Mingo.

Mingo was the Panthers' second-round selection after the team's signing of Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark following their trade of former receiver D.J. Moore. While Thielen and Chark will likely start early, they offer little upside. Among 53 receivers with at least 75 targets, Thielen ranked 52nd in yards per route run with a 1.06 average.

This continues a three-year decline from 2020, where his yards per route run average was 1.86. He'll be 33 years old before the 2023 season kicks off. Based on his efficiency metrics, it's safe to say Thielen has officially fallen off the cliff.

On the other hand, Chark has never been all that good. He has one season with a yards-per-route-run average over 1.50, which was the only time he had more than 95 targets, 55 catches, and 715 yards. He's largely just a one-trick pony. Chark's average depth of target has been higher than 14.5 yards in his last three seasons. He's a poor man's Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He's a serious deep threat and nothing more.

Now back to Mingo. With this limited target competition, it wouldn't be surprising if he becomes Young's primary target at some point in the season. He finished his senior season with 81 targets, 51 receptions, 861 yards, and five touchdowns. He ended with a 2.14 yards per route run average, which ranked 57th among 113 qualifying receivers with at least 80 targets. He averaged 7.3 yards after the catch per attempt, which ranked 10th among the sample above. He also finished with his best target share of his four years at 23.8%.

Mingo was largely used as a downfield threat in college, but his game seems best suited for a Deebo Samuel type of role.

Fantasy managers on Yahoo! are only taking him as the WR66 and selecting him in the 15th round. He is essentially free. While he may struggle early, Mingo could have a second-half breakout similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown, another player Matt Harmon of Reception Perception compared him to. Considering his cost and upside, Jonathan Mingo is an easy target in fantasy leagues.

Players to Avoid- WR Adam Thielen & WR D.J. Chark

Neither of these players has a high fantasy cost. Yahoo! fantasy managers are drafting Adam Thielen as the WR56, while D.J. Chark is the WR68. They'll require just a 12th or a 14th-round pick, respectively. Despite being incredibly cheap, they're both players you should avoid this season. Once fantasy managers get to the later rounds of their draft, they should target upside. Thielen and Chark have none.

Thielen's receiving yards per game have dropped in each of the last three seasons. Last year, he finished with just 716 yards despite playing with Kirk Cousins, who had the fourth-most attempts and yards. Last year, Thielen was on pace for under 950 yards. His 2021 performance was the beginning of a fairly quick decline; however, Thielen scored 10 touchdowns in 13 games that season. There will be no such scoring feat in Carolina.

Chark was last on pace for 100 targets in 2020, and the last time he was on pace to eclipse 1,000 yards over 17 games was back in 2019. Since that 2019 season, which now makes Chark look like a one-hit-wonder, he's averaged just 5.9 targets, 3.2 receptions, and 48.6 yards per game over 28 contests. Over 17 games, those averages would amount to 101 targets, 54 receptions, and 825 yards. Now, he's about to play on his third team in three years with a rookie quarterback.

Receivers to target after Thielen include Romeo Doubs, Rashee Rice, Jonathan Mingo, and Nico Collins. After Chark, pivot to Jayden Reed, Isaiah Hodgins, or Darius Slayton, all of whom are cheaper, some even considerably so.

New Orleans Saints

Players to Target- RB Alvin Kamara

Yahoo! fantasy managers are understandably concerned about Alvin Kamara's potential suspension, but the price is becoming impossible to pass up. He's currently being taken as the RB32, costing fantasy managers an eighth-round pick. What he's done since coming into the league in 2017 speaks for itself.

• 2017 — 16.8 half-PPR PPG (RB5)
• 2018 — 20.9 (RB5)
• 2019 — 14.6 (RB11)
• 2020 — 22.4 (RB2)
• 2021 — 16.2 (RB11)
• 2022 — 12.3 (RB18)

Considering the upside Kamara comes with, fantasy managers should be more than willing to use an eighth-rounder on him. If suspended for six weeks, he's still worth an eighth-round pick. The only way he's not is if he were to miss the entire season. However, even with that risk, he's worth the cost of admission.

Review your previous fantasy football drafts, specifically the seventh through ninth rounds, and calculate the success rate. It's likely going to be low. Kamara is a locked and loaded top-20 RB the minute he steps onto the field. If that's Week 7, he's still worth it. If the return happens in Week 5 or Week 3, even better. We also cannot rule out the possibility of him being a top-12 RB. After all, he's done that in five of his last six seasons.

The Saints have four first-rounders on the offensive line, with a second-rounder as their fifth starter. They brought in Derek Carr as a quarterback upgrade. They are in the second season underneath head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael. Chris Olave is entering his second season, and Michael Thomas is expected to be fully healthy.

This offense could be much better than it was last season. Kamara was in line for a nice bounce-back season already. But with his price declining even more, fantasy managers should jump to add him to their roster.

Players to Avoid- QB Derek Carr

Yahoo! fantasy managers are taking Derek Carr as the QB19, and it's just too high. We all know what Carr is at this point in his career, and it's very unexciting. I'd rather gamble on Jordan Love two rounds later, who at least has some untapped potential. Matthew Stafford is also being drafted behind Carr, which is a travesty. Carr has simply never been a good fantasy asset.

• 2014 — 12.3 PPG (QB28)
• 2015 — 17.4 PPG (QB18)
• 2016 — 17.9 PPG (QB10)
• 2017 — 14.0 PPG (QB22)
• 2018 — 14.3 PPG (QB25)
• 2019 — 15.5 PPG (QB26)
• 2020 — 17.2 PPG (QB18)
• 2021 — 16.0 PPG (QB16)
• 2022 — 15.5 PPG (QB19)

Carr has only been better than QB19 in four of his nine seasons as a starter. However, in only one of those four seasons was he better than QB16. Carr has provided meaningful fantasy value in only one of his nine seasons. That was back in 2016, which was also a low-scoring year for quarterbacks. He's been a top-15 QB one time. One time in nine seasons! We know what he is.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Players to Target- RB Rachaad White

Rachaad White essentially played two completely different seasons last year. After being drafted by the Buccaneers in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft, White initially played a limited role behind Leonard Fournette. However, a significant shift occurred in Week 10 when the Bucs deployed their two-back scheme. It resulted in a much larger role for the rookie out of Arizona State.

Tampa Bay's approach to their running back position during the offseason was a surprise. They released Fournette and made only one addition, signing Miami castoff Chase Edmonds. Surprisingly, they did not draft a running back. Instead, they added undrafted free agent Sean Tucker, who was extremely productive at Syracuse but had medical concerns that likely impacted his draft stock.

With the current state of the team's depth chart, it's hard to envision a scenario where White does not have more than 250 touches. Surpassing 250 touches creates a very high possibility for a top-24 finish. The table above demonstrates that he already had a significant workload from Weeks 10-17, even with Fournette on the team. Even better, many of those touches came in the way of receptions.

Although it's unlikely for White to have 73 receptions in 2023 due to the departure of Tom Brady, it's worth remembering that the team said goodbye to Fournette and his 83 targets. While the overall passing volume is expected to decrease, we can subtract Fournette's share from the equation.

Additionally, it's worth noting that Tampa Bay operated with an exceptionally high-volume passing attack last season. However, even with a substantial decrease in pass attempts, the Bucs may still rank top-12 in passing volume. The Bucs averaged 45.4 pass attempts last season.

Even if we subtract 10 pass attempts per game, representing a 22% decline, Tampa Bay would still finish top-12 in passing volume. Even with a 26% decline, the Bucs would still be in the league's top half with roughly 571 total pass attempts.

Considering that the league average for running back targets is around 18%, the Tampa Bay backs would still be looking at 103 targets, even with a 26% decrease in overall passing volume. Given the current depth chart, seeing White handle 80% of the workload wouldn't be surprising.

With White's receiving profile and the barren depth chart behind him, his current ADP looks like a gift to fantasy managers. You can go ahead and thank Baker Mayfield for that, but don't let him keep you from drafting White. He won't be game-scripted out of production when the Bucs are behind due to his ability to contribute as a pass-catcher.

Yahoo! fantasy managers are drafting White as the RB24, requiring just a sixth-round pick. That's a low price to pay for a running back who looks like he'll be operating a workhorse role with a strong receiving profile.

Players to Avoid- None

I fully understand the concerns with Tampa Bay going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield. I get it, but it's likely gone too far. The Buccaneers have been a high passing volume offense since 2017 when Chris Godwin was drafted. Since then, here's what Tampa has done in the passing game.

These stats span six seasons and three different quarterbacks, so it's not just a Brady thing. The team has never finished lower than sixth in attempts, fourth in yards, or 12th in touchdowns. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans need to get some credit for this.

Last year, Tampa averaged 3.4 yards per rushing attempt, ranking 32nd in the league. They have Evans, Godwin, Russell Gage, and a rookie tight end in Cade Otton, who had over 40 catches and almost 400 yards last season. Rachaad White was regarded as the best pass-catching back in the 2022 NFL Draft. All of this points to Tampa throwing the ball a lot again in 2023.

They averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game last year. That could decrease by 23%, an enormous amount, and still rank in the top-12. Yes, the efficiency is going to decline. That doesn't mean we should be fading Godwin and Evans at their current prices.

Godwin is currently being drafted as the WR28 at the end of the fifth round, and Evans goes as the WR33 at the end of the sixth. Even if we drop their pass attempts to 34.5 and give Godwin a 22% target share and Evans a 21% target share, they'd finish with 129 and 123 targets, respectively. That's enough volume for a WR2 finish.

You don't need to avoid Godwin and Evans at their current prices. The Baker Mayfield effect has strongly influenced drafters to the point that both receivers are closer to being draft values than players to be avoided.

As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.

LIKE ROTOBALLER?

CLICK HERE, ENTER ROTOBALLER.COM, THEN CHECK THE BOX

More Fantasy Football Analysis