RADIO
Rob looks at each NFL team in the AFC South and identifies players from each team that fantasy football managers should be targeting and avoiding in 2023.
I discussed with my editors the possibility of skipping the AFC and NFC South articles as a protest against the expected poor performance of the eight clubs in these divisions. Well, except for you, Jacksonville. We think you'll probably be good, but to be fair, you’ve let us down in the past. Anyways, they said I could not skip those articles, so I’m just here so I won’t be fined. Let’s get started!
If you missed the first few entries in this series, you can find them below:
As I’ve emphasized throughout this series: our aim is not just to identify good and bad fantasy football players. Rather, we try to identify good and bad prices. A great player could have a bad price and a less impressive player could have a good price. We focus on the cost of acquisition because we should never be all-in or all-out on a player. Our interest should always be cost-dependent. Fantasy football draft season keeps inching closer and closer, so use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.
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Houston Texans
Players to Target- WR Nico Collins
Nico Collins played in 10 games last year. In one game, he left early due to injury, resulting in him playing under 50% of the snaps. In the other nine games, he averaged seven targets (33rd among WRs), 3.8 receptions (48th), 49.8 receiving yards (50th), and 80.2 air yards (25th) per game. He recorded a 20.4% target share (36th among WRs) and a 25% targets per route run rate (tied for 20th). Additionally, he had an average of 1.79 YPRR, ranking 37th.
These numbers may not be mind-blowing. However, according to PlayerProfiler, only 50% of his targets were deemed catchable, ranking 99th among WRs. Rookie C.J. Stroud could significantly improve that part of Collins' game. Just using his per-game averages from last season, Collins was on pace for 119 targets, 65 receptions, 847 yards, and a modest four touchdowns.
In his final four games of the season, Collins accumulated 36 targets, 19 receptions, 176 yards, and two touchdowns, putting him on par with Brandin Cooks. Collins should be considered the frontrunner for the Texans' WR1 role after coming off a sophomore season where he made significant progress.
This results in an 8.3 half-PPR average. While not exceptional, it would be a solid return for a late-round pick. Now, imagine if Collins' efficiency increases with Stroud at quarterback. What if it improves by a decent amount?
Yahoo! drafters are currently selecting Collins as the WR63 in half-PPR scoring. He is an easy target at that price. You rarely find a team’s No. 1 receiver available this late in drafts, especially one tied to the No. 2 overall quarterback selection in last year’s draft. I don’t like to guarantee anything, but Collins feels like a lock to outplay his current Yahoo! ranking.
Players to Avoid- RB Dameon Pierce
While some are touting this offseason to be a win for Dameon Pierce, I’m a bit more skeptical. The signing of Devin Singletary shouldn’t be overlooked. He has been far better than people, myself included, realize over his four years in Buffalo. A lot of that has been hidden since he didn’t receive as many opportunities as other starting running backs did. However, he has been quite efficient when he touches the ball.
| Player | YAC/Attempt | BrkTkl/Att | True YPC | Juke Rate | Breakaway Run Rate |
Yards Created Per Touch
|
| D, Pierce (2022) | 2.3 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 27.2% | 4.1% | 2.87 |
| D, Singletary (Career) | 2.2 | 13.1 | 4.4 | 27.6% | 6.8% | 2.54 |
The stats provided by PlayerProfiler show that while Piece was impressive as a rookie, Singletary has maintained similar averages across four seasons. Singletary also has a higher true yards per carry average, a higher juke rate, and a higher breakaway run rate.
Pass blocking is another area of concern for Pierce. PFF gave him a pass-blocking grade of 32.3, which is quite low. On the other hand, Singletary graded out in the top 10 among running backs with a pass-blocking grade of 73.2. Singletary’s reliable pass blocking could limit Pierce’s involvement in the passing game and his share of third-down snaps. This is especially true now that Houston has a new franchise quarterback to protect, rather than just trying to keep Davis Mills upright.
Pierce will still likely lead the Texans' backfield in snaps and touches, but this backfield may end up being more evenly split than fantasy managers realize. Currently, Pierce is being drafted as the RB18 on Yahoo! Given his minimal role in the passing game, Singletary’s signing, and the uncertain state of Houston's offense, Pierce's role could potentially shrink in 2023. This could make it difficult for him to live up to his current ADP.
Indianapolis Colts
Players to Target- QB Anthony Richardson
This decision depends on how you want to attack your draft. If you want to draft a QB early and secure one of the top-six signal-callers, go for it. After all, in our NFC East edition, Jalen Hurts had been suggested as the player to target for the Eagles. However, if you’re waiting on QB, then Anthony Richardson should definitely be on the radar for fantasy managers.
Since 2020, there have been six quarterbacks who had at least 85 rush attempts in their rookie seasons. Those six quarterbacks were:
- Cam Newton, 2011 (23.1 PPG)
- Robert Griffin III, 2012 (21.1 PPG)
- Kyler Murray, 2019 (17.8 PPG)
- Russell Wilson, 2012 (17.3 PPG)
- Josh Allen, 2018 (17.3 PPG)
- Lamar Jackson, 2018 (18.6 PPG as the starter, Weeks 11–17)
In the games they started, all of them averaged at least 17.3 PPG. Two of them averaged 21 or more PPG. This shows that drafting a rookie starting quarterback with rushing ability provides both a solid floor and significant upside.
If you wait on QB in your fantasy drafts, Richardson offers a similar level of upside as Justin Fields did last season. While his passing stats may not be impressive, his rushing ability is elite. Pairing Richardson with a veteran quarterback such as Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, or Matthew Stafford provides fantasy managers with an ideal combination -- the stability and reliability of the veteran alongside the high upside of the dynamic rookie runner.
Shane Steichen was the offensive coordinator for Jalen Hurts during his first season as the primary starter for the Eagles. While that wasn’t Hurts' rookie season, we can draw similarities in how Steichen may utilize Richardson in his first year as the Colts’ head coach.
Hurts finished with 139 rush attempts for 784 yards. He also had 31 red zone carries, which ranked 21st in the NFL among all players. Out of those 31 carries, 22 occurred inside the 10-yard line, which tied for the 12th-most in the league. Furthermore, 13 of those carries were inside the five-yard line, ranking sixth overall. Hurts not only received significant rushing volume but also had plenty of rushing opportunities near the goal line. This is wheels up for Richardson.
Players to Avoid- WR Michael Pittman Jr.
According to PlayerProfiler, 85.1% of Michael Pittman Jr.'s targets were deemed catchable last year, placing him 11th overall among receivers. However, fantasy managers should anticipate a significant drop in this percentage in the upcoming season with Richardson as his quarterback. The following image is from Sports Info Solution's 2023 NFL Draft Leaderboard, which provides advanced statistics on incoming NFL prospects.
Sports Info Solutions evaluated 14 quarterback prospects. Based on the tables above, Richardson ranked last in completion percentage and catchable percentage. Although it is not visible in the tables, he also finished last in on-target percentage. Among the 14 quarterbacks evaluated, Richardson was the only one with a completion rate below 60% and an on-target percentage below 70%. He lagged behind the next closest QB by seven and five percentage points in these respective categories. This is a major concern for Pittman.
Despite the limitations of the quarterback play in Indianapolis, Pittman's targets were mostly accurate, as shown above. This contributed to his catch rate of over 70%, which was beneficial in PPR-scoring leagues. However, he averaged 9.3 YPR, ranking him 98th among receivers. Despite recording 99 receptions, Pittman finished with only 925 yards, ranking eighth in receptions but only 24th in yards among receivers.
Additionally, Pittman’s aDot of 6.9 ranked him 92nd among receivers. In 2021, he ranked 71st with an aDot of 8.8. Pittman excels as a possession receiver on short and intermediate routes, but he is not a downfield threat. Unfortunately, this style of play may not align well with Richardson's strengths as a quarterback.
Richardson's limitations are just one factor impacting Pittman's fantasy value in 2023. Last year, the Colts ranked 10th in pass attempts per game with an average of 35.5. If history is any indication, the 2023 Colts won't come close to that mark. During Hurts' first season as the primary starter, the Eagles ranked 29th in pass attempts per game with an average of 29.8, a significant contrast to their average of 35.5 this past season. Less passing volume combined with a more inaccurate QB makes Pittman an easy fade.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Players to Target- WR Calvin Ridley
Targeting Calvin Ridley at his current WR20 ranking does come with certain risks, but the potential upside is enticing. When we last saw Ridley during the 2021 season, he commanded a 27.4% target share for the Atlanta Falcons. In 2020, the last full season he played, he finished with 143 targets, 90 receptions, 1,374 yards, and nine touchdowns. With a 25.8% target share, he finished as the WR4 with 16.4 half-PPR PPG.
The Jaguars threw the ball 596 times last year, a number expected to decline this year due to improvements on the team and a more favorable strength of schedule. Let's say Ridley maintains a 23% target share, which is a 4.4 percentage point drop from 2021. If the Jaguars pass the ball 570 times, he would finish with 131 targets. Based on his career averages, this would result in approximately 86 receptions and 1,161 yards.
However, let's consider a scenario where Ridley commands a 25.8% target share, similar to what he had in 2020. Now, we’re talking about 147 targets, 96 receptions, and 1,296 yards!
Ridley was on the verge of stardom when he left the Falcons in 2021 due to mental health concerns. Now, he's returning to an electric environment and a top-10 offense in Jacksonville. There is every reason to believe that Ridley will emerge as star quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s No. 1 target this season. Christian Kirk finished as the WR21 last year, right in line with Ridley’s current price. However, Ridley’s ceiling will likely be higher than Kirk's production from last year. Fantasy managers should want a piece of that upside.
Players to Avoid- TE Evan Engram
Last year, when Evan Engram was drafted as a mid-tier TE2, I was all-in. After a TE8 finish in half-PPR PPG, Yahoo! drafters are selecting him as the TE8 again. This year, however, I’ll be avoiding Engram in drafts.
I would rather draft David Njoku or Pat Freiermuth (who are both going about a round later) or gamble on Greg Dulcich (who goes four rounds later). While Engram performed well last year for a tight end, he still only scored in double-digits five times. A quarter of his total points also came in one contest, significantly overinflating his half-PPR PPG average.
Additionally, the Jaguars’ target distribution is going to be much different than it was last year. This is because they traded for Calvin Ridley. With Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, and Engram all returning, Ridley is essentially replacing former Jaguar Marvin Jones Jr.
| Player | TS % | TPG | RPG | RYPG | YPRR |
| C, Ridley (2020-2021) | 26.2% | 9.75 | 6.05 | 82.75 | 2.28 |
| M, Jones (2022) | 14.7% | 5.06 | 2.88 | 33.1 | 1.28 |
When we compare Ridley's combined numbers from 2020 and 2021 to what Jones provided last year, the differences are substantial. Ridley will likely command a bigger piece of the pie. This will likely hurt Engram's fantasy production.
Even more troubling is the fact that the Jaguars are likely to pass the ball less frequently than they did last season. They finished 9-8 last year and had 596 pass attempts, ranking 10th in the NFL.
While that number shouldn’t decrease too much, the other teams in the AFC South are quite poor. Jacksonville will have the 12th-easiest schedule this year and will most likely win a lot more games than they did last year. This is going to put them in a position where they don’t need to throw the ball as often as they did last season.
These two factors, namely Engram getting a smaller piece of a shrinking pie, make him a player to fade this fantasy football season.
Tennessee Titans
Players to Target- QB Ryan Tannehill
I don’t mind Treylon Burks at his current price tag of WR36 on Yahoo! You can read about his chances for a sophomore breakout here. However, we’re going to focus on another Titan here: quarterback Ryan Tannehill. This is specifically for two-quarterback and Superflex leagues.
Fantasy managers are currently treating Tannehill as if he may not even begin the season as the Titans' starter. He's being drafted as the QB32 on Yahoo!, which is absurd. Needless to say, there has been no such talk out of Tennessee’s camp or from any beat writers about Tannehill not starting. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if he starts the entire season.
Tannehill played in 12 games this past year and finished as a top-12 QB in five of them. Fantasy managers should be enthusiastic about getting that kind of production from their QB3 in a Superflex league at his current value. He was a top-20 QB in 12 out of 17 games in 2021, with four finishes in the top 12.
Since becoming the starter for the Titans in 2019, he has averaged 0.36 rushing touchdowns per game. Over 17 games, that amounts to six rushing scores each year. The added rushing value gives Tannehill a fantasy boost and helps provide a solid weekly floor.
Players to Avoid- None
Fantasy managers do not need to avoid anyone from Tennessee’s roster. This is mostly because they have very few viable fantasy options. Don’t be afraid to take Derrick Henry at RB9, which is where Yahoo! drafters are selecting him. We already touched on Burks being someone to target at WR36.
The only other Titan that will find himself routinely drafted is Chigoziem Okonkwo. Tennessee’s starting second-year tight end is currently being drafted as the TE12 and is in a great spot for a big season. You can read more about him here.
As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.
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