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Rookie receivers have been all the rage for the past few years. However, the vast majority of players often need a year to transition to the NFL before they really start producing on a consistent basis. Rookie stars such as Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle are unicorns.
It’s not abnormal for a poor rookie season to lead to a decrease in fantasy value the following year, which can present an advantageous buying opportunity for fantasy managers. Sometimes, their first year isn’t even bad, but rather a slight disappointment. While we may sometimes want to focus on the player, our real emphasis should be on the prices of certain players. It's important to be aware of some of these players who had poor rookie seasons, but whose prices are plenty friendly.
Fantasy managers shouldn’t be too quick to write off rookies who struggled to produce in year one, especially rookies who were drafted early. We’re going to focus on six receivers who were selected early in the 2022 NFL Draft and have the potential to have breakout seasons this year. We’ll be discussing the reasons that contribute to their potential breakout and also consider the factors that might hinder their breakout. Additionally, we'll assign each player a breakout score. Don't forget to use the promo code "BOOM" for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.
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Defining What Is A Breakout
Before we get too far here, we need to officially define what constitutes a breakout. Everyone is likely to have a different definition of what this is, but for this article, we’re going to define a breakout as a top-30 WR in half-PPR PPG. We'll use a minimum of seven games played as our criteria.
We're using this distinction as most leagues either start three WRs or two WRs with a flex. In either format, a top-30 WR would be considered a quality starter. Over the last four years, the WR30 in half-PPR PPG has scored 10.4 (2022), 10.5 (2021), 11.1 (2020), and 11.2 (2019). The average is 10.8 and the median is 10.8, which is the number these players will need to average to obtain breakout status. Let’s get started.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
WR20, Underdog ADP of 39.9
Reasons Why He Will Breakout
One could argue that Christian Watson already broke out in the second half of the 2022 NFL season. If you want to take that position, I won't argue with you. His final eight games were so good that his price has climbed to the top of round four and he's now being drafted as the WR20. This is a strong indication that fantasy managers are clearly buying what Watson did from Weeks 10–18. Below is a table that displays his per-game average from the final eight games of the season.
| Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Half-PPR PPG |
| 6.5 | 3.9 | 65.4 | 13.7 |
His half-PPR PPG average is certainly being buoyed by his eight touchdowns in those final eight games, which is a rate that he won't be able to replicate in 2023. However, that doesn't necessarily mean he's going to score less. He finished the season with nine total touchdowns but fantasy managers should be expecting his total targets to double, at the very least. That will allow his touchdown rate to decrease by 50% and still find the end zone the same amount of times. the number of touchdowns will likely stay within the same range as last season. While his rate of touchdowns will go down, the number of touchdowns scored will likely stay within the same range as last season.
His per-game stats from the table above put him on pace for 111 targets, 66 receptions, and 1,112 receiving yards. However, fantasy managers should expect his targets per game to increase from the 6.5 he averaged over those final eight games of the season. The reason fantasy managers should be expecting that is simple – playing time. During those final eight games of the season, as good as he was playing, the Packers were still holding him back.
He had a 72.2% route participation rate and a snap share count of just 78.5%. Both of these numbers should increase to at least 90% in 2023. Those additional routes will provide Watson with more target-earning potential and based on how well he played, there's no reason not to be expecting this.
| Target Share | Air Yards Per Game | YAC/Rec | YPRR | TPRR |
| 22.5% | 102.8 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 28% |
These numbers over his final eight games are exceptional. All of the numbers above, except target share, would have finished inside the top 10 among receivers with at least 50 targets for the 2022 season. I mentioned earlier that with an increase in his snap share and route participation, we should expect his targets per game to increase. That becomes even more evident by his 28% target per route run.
Over the past four years under Matt LaFleur, the Packers have averaged 581 pass attempts per season. Considering a slight decrease in total pass attempts (560) due to the quarterback change, let's assume a target share of 23% for Watson, slightly higher than the previous sample size (22.5%). This would result in 130 targets for him. With that kind of volume, a true breakout season is on the horizon.
Reasons Why He Will Not Breakout
There are two reasons why Watson won’t hit a 10.8 half-PPR PPG average. The first reason would be an injury, which causes him to miss too many games. This is completely unpredictable so we won’t even bother with it. The second is something he can’t control, which is poor quarterback play. However, given Watson's explosiveness and high volume, it would take extremely poor quarterback play to prevent him from eclipsing our baseline. No, the quarterback play would have to be disastrous.
Chris Olave was able to average 10.7 half-PPR PPG with Andy Dalton on account of his talent and volume. However, Garrett Wilson finished at 10.1 half-PPR PPG, despite averaging 0.72 more targets per game. And why was that? It was the atrocious quarterback play.
Could Jordan Love be that bad? It’s technically possible as we really haven’t seen him play all that much. However, the Green Bay Packers, widely recognized as one of the best-run organizations in the NFL, made the decision to trade away their four-time MVP quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, thereby creating a path for Love to start. They clearly have a lot of faith in him and based on how well the Packers have been run over the years, that should only increase our confidence that Love won’t be as bad as Zach Wilson. He’s not going to be Aaron Rodgers, but he doesn't need to be in order for Watson to obtain a 10.8 half-PPR PPG average. Can he be like Andy Dalton last year when Olave averaged 10.7? Yes, absolutely.
Breakout Probability: 9/10
Treylon Burks, Tennessee Titans
WR38, Underdog ADP of 70.9
Reasons Why He Will Breakout
Treylon Burks had a rough rookie season, one that was negatively affected by injuries early and late. He missed four games between Weeks 5–9 and also missed Weeks 14 and 15 late in the season. The missed practice time certainly impacted him, which should have fantasy managers keeping an open mind on Burks entering his season second. Especially since he began to display some reasons for optimism in the final six games in which he played.
During Weeks 10–18, Burks appeared in seven games, but in Week 13, he played just 17% of the snaps and ran five routes before leaving due to injury. In the six other games, Burks put up the following stats listed below in the table.
| Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Half-PPR PPG |
| 6.2 | 3.7 | 48.3 | 6.67 |
While the numbers above aren’t anything to get excited about, it’s important to know that he didn’t score once in those six games, which is absolutely going to hurt your PPG average. However, more importantly, the volume started to come. While the counting stats aren’t all that impressive, his efficiency metrics sure are.
| TS % | AYPG | YAC/Rec | RR % | YPRR | TPRR | Snap % |
| 20.3% | 68.0 | 4.8 | 68.9% | 1.99 | 25% | 67.7% |
A couple of numbers stand out from the table above. First, his 1.99 yards per route run average, which would’ve ranked 25th. While some of the counting stats aren’t all that impressive — we’ll get to those in a second — Burks was being super efficient with his targets. The second number that stands out is his target per route run average, which would’ve ranked 20th at 25%. When he was on the field, Burks started commanding targets at an elite rate. Why should this get you excited?
This brings us to the final numbers that we need to pay attention to, his route participation rate and his snap share, which were at 68.9% and 67.7% respectively. Both numbers should be over 90% in 2022. This increased role in the offense is going to coincide with a massive increase in targets. Especially considering the depth chart behind him that features Kyle Philips and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine.
Reasons Why He Will Not Breakout
This one is simple — low team passing volume. The Titans attempted just 456 passes last year. If Burks ran a route on literally every single one of those attempts, using his 1.99 YPRR and 25% TPRR, he’d finish with 907 yards and 114 targets. That’s not going to get him a 10.8 half-PPR PPG average unless he has some crazy good touchdown luck.
The volume in Tennessee is a massive deterrent to Burks’ potential upside. The one sliver of hope is that the Titans could be quite bad this season. This could theoretically increase their passing volume. However, head coach Mike Vrabel will attempt to slow games down to a crawl and win with Derrick Henry.
Burks is an exciting young player and he’s likely on the verge of a really good second season. The question is, how does that translate to fantasy football value? Simply put, Burks needs more team passing volume or he needs to be one of the most efficient receivers in the league. Assuming he finishes with around 430 routes, which would be an incredibly high 94% route participation rate on last year’s total pass attempts, he’d need to average a 2.32 YPRR to break 1,000. That number would’ve ranked 11th in the NFL last year, better than DeVonta Smith, just for some perspective. Tennessee’s offense presents a very tall mountain to overcome.
Breakout Probability: 4/10
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
WR39, Underdog ADP of 73.2
Reasons Why He Will Breakout
When it comes to George Pickens, fantasy managers are required to take a leap of faith. What he put on paper and on film isn’t much to get excited about. But we’ll get into the reasons why he will not break out later on.
If you’re making the argument as to why he will break out then it starts with you believing that he will overtake Pat Freiermuth as Kenny Pickett’s No. 2 target in Pittsburgh. Pickens may have been hampered by a torn ACL he suffered in 2021, which made his rookie season his first year back on the field. This isn’t a stretch by any means, but getting back to full health likely won’t be enough on its own.
You need to believe Pickett will take a significant step forward in his second season after having the lowest touchdown rate among qualifying QBs in 2022. In fact, Pickett was the only QB with a touchdown rate below 2.5%. His touchdown rate was at 1.8%, 0.7 percentage points below Zach Wilson, who was second-to-last. That should be quite troubling.
Pickett also averaged just 6.2 yards per attempt, which ranked 32nd out of 33 qualifying quarterbacks. Pickens’ average depth of target was 15.6 yards, which was the third-highest among receivers. However, these targets create a lot of volatility, especially with suspect quarterback play. How many targets can we realistically expect Pickens to earn when the routes he’s running and the play style from Pickett are drastically different?
For him to break out, he’ll also need to earn more targets. Last season, he had a 16% target share in games started by Pickett after the Chase Claypool trade. With that kind of target share, Pickens will need to score an abundance of touchdowns, which seems unlikely based on Pickett's TD rate.
Reasons Why He Will Not Breakout
There is a long list of reasons why Pickens is unlikely to obtain top-30 WR status in 2023.
| Targets Per Game | Receptions Per Game | Yards Per Game | Half-PPR PPG |
| 4.9 | 3.0 | 47.4 | 9.9 |
The table above includes his per-game statistics from Weeks 10–13 and Weeks 16–18. These are the weeks after Claypool was traded and where Pickett started and finished each game. In this seven-game stretch, he found the end zone four times on 23 touches, which is a 17.4% rate. It’s fairly safe to say that won’t happen again in 2023 and even with that insanely high TD rate, he averaged just 9.9 half-PPR PPG. The reasons why that number is so low, despite an excellent TD rate, can be seen below.
| TS % | AYPG | YAC/Rec | RR % | YPRR | TPRR | Snap % |
| 16.0% | 71.1 | 1.9 | 87.6% | 1.51 | 15% | 75.5% |
The efficiency metrics for Pickens are very concerning. He had excellent opportunities, running a route 87.6% of the time, but his 15% target per route run rate was in the dumpster. His target share of 16.0% was also concerning. It’s easy to say Pickens will be better in year two, but how much better? Can we realistically expect him to increase both numbers by five to seven percent? This is where we need him to be to just have a chance at a top-30 WR season. Mind you, Freiermuth had a 20.6% target share and a 23% target per route run average during this sample, significantly ahead of Pickens.
It’s fair to wonder what exactly is going to change in year two. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception said the following about Pickens in his rookie profile,
“He ran a nine on a whopping 32.4% of his sampled routes. That is nuts. Anything over 30% is borderline unreasonable. When you also add that he ran a corner on nearly 10% of his routes, it’s really wild how the Steelers didn’t add more diversity to his route tree. Pickens got next to no work going over the middle. The slant, dig and post made up less than a quarter of his routes. You almost never see this at the NFL level.”
That kind of utilization needs to drastically change for Pickens to become a consistent fantasy producer. There are just too many things that need to change substantially for Pickens to break out. Pickett needs to take a big step forward. Pickens needs to overtake Freiermuth. Pickens needs to be more efficient. And Pittsburgh needs to utilize Pickens differently. That’s an awful lot that needs to happen.
Breakout Probability: 3/10
Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
WR40, Underdog ADP of 77.1
Reasons Why He Will Breakout
Jahan Dotson had an extremely underrated rookie season, largely due to a midseason injury that impacted those all-important counting stats that we're quick to check. Dotson played in 70% of the snaps and ran a route 80% of the time in eight games. This happened in Weeks 1–3 and Weeks 13–18, but the difference between these two periods is drastic. It shows just how much Dotson improved in such a short period of time.
| Time | TPG | RPG | RYPG | Half-PPR PPG |
| Wks 1–3 | 6.7 | 3 | 36.3 | 11.1 |
| Wks 13–18 | 7 | 4.2 | 68.8 | 12.5 |
He scored three touchdowns in Weeks 1–3, which inflated his half-PPR PPG average. But you can clearly see how much more effective and efficient Dotson became in Weeks 13-18. That becomes even more clear in his efficiency metrics as well.
| Time | TS % | AYPG | YAC/Rec | RR % | YPRR | TPRR | Snap % |
| Weeks 1–3 | 15.3% | 81.7 | 2.0 | 84.2% | 0.82 | 15% | 92.2% |
| Weeks 13–18 | 24% | 94.2 | 5.3 | 85.0% | 2.34 | 24% | 79.5% |
In the first three weeks of the season, Curtis Samuel was a thing. In the final five weeks, Dotson’s emergence made Samuel largely irrelevant. Dotson wasn’t just a very good No. 2 alongside Terry McLaurin, in many aspects, Dotson was stride for stride, right next to him.
It isn’t just the metrics that are a big fan of Dotson either. The film study shows a player who was extremely effective as a rookie and looks like a budding star at the receiver position. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had extremely high praise for Dotson in his rookie profile,
“At worst Dotson looks like a rock-solid No. 2 receiver for years to come. But he checks so many boxes that we want out of legit No. 1 receivers. He separates all over the field, wins in the vertical game, is a strong technician and wins contested catches.”
When the numbers and the film align, you know you have a player that you should be betting on in 2023.
Reasons Why He Will Not Breakout
The answer is nothing that Dotson can control. The reason he will not break out is simple — quarterback play. Sam Howell is a 2022 fifth-round pick. Jacoby Brissett is a game-managing journeyman. How much faith do fantasy managers have in either player to support not one, but two top-30 receivers?
Washington will also welcome former Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to the same position, giving him the well-earned right to call plays. In the long run, Bieniemy very well may be an upgrade to Scott Turner, but installing a new offense can elicit growing pains and a learning curve. This usually becomes evident with a lack of talent in the quarterback room.
Brissett has had three separate stints where he’s started at least 10 games. He’s never averaged more than 1.2 touchdowns per game, not once. Which puts his ceiling at 20 touchdowns over 17 games. That’s a major concern, as is the team passing volume.
Over the past two seasons, Washington has not had more than 554 attempts and has finished no higher than 20th. Bieniemy could certainly change that, but this is unknown, which creates risk. Combining average to below-average team passing volume with average to below-average quarterback play could very well make it tough for the No. 2 receiver to finish with a 10.8 half-PPR PPG average.
Breakout Probability: 5/10
Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions
WR49, Underdog ADP of 97.6
Reasons He Will Breakout
If you’re buying a breakout season from Jameson Williams, you’re doing so on the backbone of his collegiate profile, draft capital, and early declaration status. All those factors certainly make for a strong argument. Receivers declaring early for the NFL Draft has historically had a positive correlation to NFL success. When you combine Williams' early declaration status with the kind of draft capital he received at No. 12 overall, he becomes the exact kind of player we should be betting on.
During his final season at Alabama, Williams recorded 115 targets, 78 receptions, 1,561 yards, and 15 touchdowns. His 20.0 YPR average was the third-highest in the country among receivers with at least 75 targets. His PFF receiving grade was 85.1, which was the 18th highest. He also recorded elite metrics in yards after contact per reception, ranking third-highest at 9.3, and had the 12th-best yard-per-route run average at 3.12.
In Matt Harmon’s Reception Perception prospect profile of Williams, he noted this,
“The route success rate chart shows that Williams is indeed a dangerous vertical receiver who runs by defenders in a flash. He outran the entire opposing secondary at least once per game last season. He’s at his best on straight-up nine routes and routes like the dig and out where he loses zero speed breaking off at a 90-degree angle. Posts and corners were also a mainstay in his arsenal and a big-armed quarterback will love unfurling deep shots to Williams on those routes in the NFL.”
He didn’t play much during his rookie season while recovering from a torn ACL that he suffered late in his final season at Alabama. But he's no longer a rookie and should have a very good grasp of the offense, which should have a positive impact on his snaps and routes once he returns from suspension.
He will also be another year removed from his torn ACL, which will only help his speed and strength. He was an exciting prospect coming out in 2021 and nothing has changed that.
Reasons He Will Not Breakout
While he should have a better idea of the offense and what is being asked of him, this will still be his first year playing in the NFL on a weekly basis. He returned late last season but played very sparingly. His suspension due to gambling could put him in the dog house as well as head coach Dan Campbell appears to be a no-nonsense kind of guy. If Williams has gotten onto his bad side then it could impact his snap count, which ultimately would limit his routes and target opportunities.
The six-game suspension is also eliminating most of his margin for error. Without the suspension, he’d have 17 games to average 10.8 half-PPR PPG, meaning he could have a slow start as he became accustomed to NFL defenses. But with six fewer games, he’ll have fewer chances to make up for a slow start, which should be the expectation.
He’ll have to be away from the team for six weeks as well, which means no practice time. It’s unlikely he walks into a full-time role his first week back with the team. Both sides of this argument are kind of gut feelings, but that’s what happens when you’re dealing with a player who missed the vast majority of his rookie season and will have to serve a six-game suspension to start the new year.
Breakout Probability: 2/10
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs
WR56, Underdog ADP of 124.1
Reasons He Will Breakout
Short story, Kadarius Toney can’t stay healthy and struggles with consistency. Rashee Rice, a second-round rookie, flounders in his first year in the NFL having played at SMU in college. These things allow Skyy Moore to assume the role that JuJu Smith-Schuster had last year, giving him a strong shot at a breakout season.
The likelihood of those two scenarios occurring is higher than what his current ADP suggests, making him a player that fantasy managers should strongly consider due to his favorable price. While his opportunities were extremely limited in year one — he had just a 32.7% snap share and a 26.7% route participation rate — it wasn’t all a failure. He showed some promise when he got on the field. In Weeks 11–12, which were the only two weeks that Moore had a 35% route participation rate or higher, he had 12 targets, 10 receptions, and 99 yards. He averaged 7.45 half-PPR PPG during those two weeks. But even looking at Weeks 1–22, Moore did some good things.
| YAC/Rec | YPRR | TPRR |
| 6.3 | 1.41 | 22% |
He was very good after the catch and averaged a target on 22% of the routes he ran. In hindsight, it shouldn't be surprising that a rookie out of Western Michigan struggled to make an impact on a Super Bowl squad that featured veteran receivers like JuJu, Mecole Hardman Jr., and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The film study is cautiously optimistic about him as well, thanks to Matt Harmon’s 2022 rookie profile of Moore.
While this route success chart does illustrate some limitations to Moore’s game, it also displays the kind of role he could be very successful in. That role is conveniently similar to the one that Smith-Schuster had last season and has since vacated. Matt Harmon noted as much in Moore’s profile, stating this,
“He’s no lock to hit but overall, I still have plenty of faith in Skyy Moore to be a quality NFL player. He never really had the full profile of a No. 1 receiver and his rookie season RP doesn’t hint at that future. However, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he’s an underneath, slot-heavy volume sponge and could end up as the Chiefs’ second-most productive pass-catcher after Travis Kelce in 2023.”
Reasons He Will Not Breakout
Fantasy managers know that MVS will be one of the starting receivers for the Chiefs, but he’s never been fantasy-relevant or someone that's earned consistent targets. However, he does earn snaps, which will leave Moore battling with Toney and Rice for the remaining routes. What could stop Moore from breaking out is if Toney or Rice outplay him during OTAs and training camp. Whoever wins the starting role as the team’s slot receiver will have a great shot at breaking out in 2023.
It’s also possible that none of them win the job and Andy Reid decides to use a receiver-by-committee approach where Rice, Toney, and Moore all rotate in the slot. How the roles and rotation of these three players shake out will determine their breakout probabilities. Right now the betting money is on Toney, but based on his first two seasons in the NFL, that’s far from a guarantee.
Breakout Probability: 3/10
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