Fantasy Football Buy or Sell - Week 5

In the Week 5 edition of Buy or Sell, analyst Kev Mahserejian breaks down several NFL skill players that are eligible trade or add/drop candidates for fantasy football.

The fantasy stonks market is always a fun one to evaluate. Buy/Sell articles like this are essentially glorified "Who's Hot and Who's Not" but the tables are turned to where sometimes, you want to buy those that are cold and sell the hot. Buy-low, sell-high is the motto but also, sometimes it is ok to buy-high if you aren't buying as high as it could be. This sounds unintelligible but it makes sense in my head.

Now, four weeks into the season, we have several big-name players underperforming and others over-performing. The trade market has the most leverage possible early on in the year when owners are 0-4 or 1-3 with injuries flooding them (especially this year). The time to buy/sell is now and I am here to help.

If you like this piece or others like it,  follow me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon to catch on any relevant and/or ask questions. Best of luck!

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Players to Buy

Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay recently announced that rookie running back, Cam Akers, would be active for Week 5. As we know, Akers has missed the past two games with a rib cartilage injury which knocked him out of action early-on in Week 2. A rib injury is tricky given that they can be played through and are mostly pain-tolerance issues. Akers will likely wear extra padding on his chest to minimize impact but re-injury risk is possible

With Akers back in action, the Rams will hopefully clear up their murky backfield. As of right now, Malcolm Brown has been the lead back while Darrell Henderson trails along with all of the production. Henderson has not played more than 49% of the snaps in any game this year while Brown hasn't played fewer than 49%.  The Rams are either wary of re-injuring Henderson or do not see him fit to play a majority of snaps. Whatever it may be, there is clearly a reason that Akers was drafted with the first pick for them in the 2020 draft. They liked him enough to start out of the gates and while his role may be limited this week, there is plenty of opportunity to take on assuming that Brown's role is shrunk. Malcolm Brown has already been targeted more times through four games this year than in any season of his six-year career and in just 33% of the snaps in Week 1, Akers saw 15 opportunities to touch the ball. Akers is the lead back that the Rams want and his opportunity will be plentiful in a week or two. Buy Akers now while he's still "cheap".

Hunter Henry, Los Angeles Chargers

Hunter Henry is third in TE yards and fourth in YAC, you wouldn't know this by just going off of fantasy points where he is TE15 on the season! Unfortunately, Henry has not hit pay-dirt yet and is touchdown-less on the season. Luckily, touchdowns are fairly random and can regress in an instant. Tyler Higbee has three on the season and they all came in the same game. Higbee also has nearly 100 fewer yards on the season but sits 10 slots higher in rankings.

This is not anti-Higbee, more-so, pro-Henry. He's one of the most talented TEs in the league who has been hampered by injury throughout his career. While the price may not be too cheap given that he hasn't been unproductive, Henry is worth the long-term investment for potential buyers. TE matchups are not useful predictors for future performance, but he does get the Saints this coming Monday and they have allowed the most points to the position in the league. Get Henry ASAP.

Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys

Michael Gallup has come out as the third-fiddle in the uber-talented Cowboys' receiving room. While most would have expected rookie CeeDee Lamb to take a backseat to the third-year WR coming off of a 1000-yard season, the opposite has come about. Lamb is looking like co-alpha with Amari Cooper while Gallup acts as more of a field-stretcher. While this is true, Gallup is 11th among all WRs in air yards and 4th in average distance of target (aDOT) among those WRs with at least 20 targets.

Gallup's time will come and it may be in clusters rather than consistent production. Nevertheless, those clusters can win you weeks by themselves. He's already had one boom week this year versus Seattle where he saw nine targets and produced six receptions, 138 yards and a touchdown. This week's matchup versus the Giants should be another one presuming that the sole skilled cornerback for the opposition, James Bradberry, opts to primarily cover Cooper or Lamb. Gallup's production at the end of the year will reflect that of a WR2 and right now his price may be that of a WR3. Acquire him for whatever is in your means and fair because every week from now you can throw him in your WR3 or FLEX spot and potentially get a winning boost.

Players to Sell

Jamison Crowder, New York Jets

With Sam Darnold out indefinitely with and Joe Flacco taking on the reins at QB for the Jets, Jamison Crowder's value takes a hit. Not so much because Flacco is a worse thrower than Darnold at the moment, but because of the unknown factor that is who Flacco will target. During his time in Baltimore, Flacco found a comfort zone with tight ends as his safety valve whereas Darnold favors the slot. In Baltimore, the target share to tight ends was above 22% from 2010 on while Darnold has only provided 18% through four games this year.

Crowder may not be the most appealing sell given his lack of name value and limitations but has had two massive PPR games in his two healthy games played this season. Crowder seldom finds the end-zone (12 TD over past 32 games) and relies on heavy volume to produce. His target-share could decline due to the return of Breshad Perriman (who Flacco played with in Baltimore) as well.

Adrian Peterson, Detroit Lions

Not D'Andre Swift, not Kerryon Johnson, but Adrian Peterson has been the RB in Detroit carrying the largest work-share on the ground. This has been one of the more odd developments of our historically ridiculous 2020 but it is not unprecedented. Just last year, we saw plodding vet Jordan Howard carry the load in Philadelphia while Miles Sanders waited in the wings and played a more complementary receiving role out of the backfield. Albeit, it did take a Howard injury for Sanders' role to expand.

While Peterson has actually played relatively well, we have to consider how long this will last given the possibility that Matt Patricia is possibly on his way out midseason. Peterson could see his role shrink in the second half of the season if the Lions continue losing. They *should* want to see more of what they got with their second-round rookie.Kerryon Johnson is a complete non-factor so he can be disregarded outside of a trade or cut situation.  Peterson's production thus far has been fantasy-relevant and given his workload, he could hold value in leagues with RB-thin waiver wires.

Phillip Lindsay, Denver Broncos

In Phillip Lindsay's absence, Melvin Gordon has thrived (particularly in Week 4). Gordon has displayed every bit of what the Broncos paid for throughout the first quarter of the season and his role will remain heavy throughout the year. Lindsay is stepping back into his presumed complementary slot but could see a lower workload if Gordon continues to thrive. Lindsay is a great story being a hometown kid but the Broncos have yet to secure him long-term and they clearly saw enough limitations to the point that they signed Gordon in the offseason.

Lindsay is a mediocre receiving back and pass-blocker (arguably the worst in 2019) therefore, he will be off the field in most passing-downs. Also, touchdowns are hard to come by given that Lindsay is not a short-yardage/goal-line back. Outside of a Gordon injury, Lindsay will not see volume similar to last year, especially early-on post-turf toe. He is essentially the opposite of Cam Akers where you want to sell before he gets on the field rather than vice-versa. Lindsay's name-value could be appealing to a league-mate who is struggling at the RB spot and needs a starter for the next few weeks.

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