Fantasy Baseball League Winners: Unlikely Aces Worth A Roster Spot? (Week 13)

Tommy Bell's weekly deep dive into three fantasy baseball starting pitchers to decide if their surprisingly good form merits a roster spot or staying on the waiver wire for Week 13 (2024).

Welcome back to another week of Unlikely Aces. It's wild to think we are less than a month away from the All-Star break. Fantasy baseball managers are running out of time to find those season-saving arms on the waiver wire. But if past years serve as an example, there are still some league-winning starting pitchers out there somewhere!

Each week, I'll take a look at three starters who have found recent success despite lesser outlooks across the fantasy landscape. By diving into some analytics, we can try to predict whether a back-end arm can potentially carry fantasy managers to glory, or if the strong performances are more likely a flash in the pan.

Are these unlikely aces for real, or is it safe to leave them out on the waiver wire with negative regression surely coming in bunches quickly? Let's take a deeper look!

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Michael Lorenzen, Texas Rangers

31% Rostered

Lorenzen has had a strong start to the summer in Texas, as he's collected six quality starts in seven outings since his rough showing in Oakland on May 8. In that stretch, he boasts a 1.88 ERA through 43 innings pitched and collected two wins for a Rangers team still trying to find their way.

Many fantasy managers in deeper leagues are riding this hot stretch from the 32-year-old, but they may be holding a ticking time bomb. Lorenzen has a 4.60 xFIP in this stretch buoyed by a very low 5.65 K/9 rate, an above-average 3.35 BB/9 rate, an unsustainable 94.6% LOB rate, and a very-low .195 BABIP. There HAS to be regression coming for the right-handed veteran.

In his recent years in Los Angeles and Cincinnati, according to FanGraphs, we have seen Lorenzen hover around the 4.25 ERA mark, and everything suggests he'll be moving back to that norm soon. His strikeout rate is lower than ever, he's still walking too many batters, and his hard-hit and ground-ball percentages have not changed at all.

All in all, there may not be a better example of a lucky pitcher than Lorenzen right now. The 2013 draft pick continues to tinker with pitch mix, but nothing flashes as a reason for this new BABIP success. Some bad outings should be coming soon for Lorenzen, so cash in what you've gotten from him so far, and get out while you can.

Tobias Myers, Milwaukee Brewers

26% Rostered

After joining his sixth different organization earlier this year, Myers finally made his MLB debut for the Brewers on April 23 in Pittsburgh. Since that strong five-inning outing that resulted in a tough-luck loss, he has bounced back to the tune of a 4-2 record and a 3.26 ERA through nine starts (10 appearances). But what's under the hood?

There's a lot to like, though it may also be true that a little regression is looming. The 25-year-old is a five-pitch pitcher who has been tinkering with four-seam versus cutter usage of late. His strikeout pitches, though, are mostly his slider and changeup. His strikeout rate has dropped a bit from his minor league dominance, as he's hovering around 8.00 when it comes to K/9 rate.

A .240 BABIP and an 86.4% LOB rate paired with a relatively high fly-ball rate (41.7%) and low soft contact rates (11.6%) says that Myers may not be fully polished enough to be a sub-4.00 ERA arm all year long. However, he'll continue to improve his arsenal as the year goes on, evidenced by his strongest stretch coming in his last three June outings.

How freaking good has Tobias Myers been?#ThisIsMyCrew #Brewers pic.twitter.com/DMfWPVNFA5

— Bally Sports Wisconsin (@BallySportWI) June 19, 2024

All in all, Myers is absolutely worth a shot in deeper formats if he's not picked up in your league already. Expect a few bumps here and there as his numbers stabilize, but there's even more strikeout upside to be tapped into here. The youngster seems to be finding his groove in Milwaukee.

Hogan Harris, Oakland Athletics

5% Rostered

Let's add one more small sample size arm to the mix while we're at it. Harris has pitched in just six major league contests this season, four being starts, and all having come in the last month and a half. He appeared in 14 games for the Athletics last year, but only six came as a starter. So far, he's been a nice spark for the Oakland carousel of starting pitchers.

The southpaw has been lights out in his 2024 starts, looking past his two long relief appearances, giving up just four earned runs through 21.2 innings and striking out 18 batters. There's nothing groundbreaking about his numbers, but he throws a devastating changeup when it's on, evidenced by Baseball Prospectus here.

Hogan Harris of the @Athletics continued his strong 2024 with another solid outing (5IP 4H 3R 1ER 2BB 3K) against the Royals. His changeup, thrown 13 times had over 19" of horizontal break and won our Starting Pitcher Pitch of the Day for June 18th pic.twitter.com/7qymGbupeV

— Baseball Prospectus (@baseballpro) June 19, 2024

Unfortunately, just like the two arms above, the 27-year-old should be hit by a regression wave very soon. Harris is stranding 93.8% of runners on base, allowing just a .185 BABIP, and is getting soft contact just 10.2% of the time with just 40.7% of his balls in play coming on the ground. Five homers in four starts is a rough trend, and the numbers say that trend may continue.

Harris' xERA is about the same as it was in 2023 (just above 5.00), and as unlucky as he may have gotten last year, he's getting just as lucky in 2024. Even in the deepest of leagues, I'd look for other options that show more upside than the journeyman minor leaguer. Perhaps he'll prove me wrong, but the data suggests doom is coming sooner rather than later.

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