RADIO
It's time for another Saturday in the glorious world of the NBA. Even though we're saddled with a slightly uninspiring three-game slate tonight, at least we don't have to deal with the "No Late Swap" business that DraftKings tested out last night. Not having the ability to react to news after the slates lock is frustrating, as guessing wrong on injured players can sink your night immediately (shoutout De'Aaron Fox in 11% of my lineups).
The Rockets-Suns game ranks first from a game environment standpoint due to its high implied total and projected pace, but there's a lot to like in the Nuggets-Lakers game and we'll have to get to value from Portland and Memphis to make lineups work. The Nuggets hold the most significant positional advantages on the slate as the Lakers struggle against PGs, SGs, and SFs, while Kevin Durant gets an elite positional advantage against Houston.
The key to being successful in NBA DFS comes down to making adjustments during the day as injury information becomes available. But it's always really important to have a game plan and the best players and spots circled first before making those adjustments. To keep up with all the latest developments and get access to updated projections, grab an NBA season pass and also gain access to our RotoBaller Premium Discord where @chiefjustice6 is talking about the slate up until lineups lock! This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 3/2/24.
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Today's NBA DFS K-Grades
I start my process with a "K-Grade" model shown below, which I've been fine-tuning for about three years. This model takes real metrics like the implied total, fantasy points per game allowed, defensive ratings, offensive ratings, and projected pace, and applies them to a model with weights. It should be used as a directional guide for the slate and I've had plenty of success with it, but stick to your process and DFS best practices. For example, a player on a team with a "D" K-Grade could easily be the top value on the slate due to a significant uptick in minutes and usage rate.
Today's NBA DFS Core Plays
Let's first take a look at our premium projections to see who we want to target for our top spend-ups tonight.
It's a tiny slate, but thankfully, we can safely target an absolute stud with one of the higher ceilings in the NBA. You could make an argument for Anthony Davis qualifying for that statement after his 73.75 DK points performance against the Wizards, but I'm looking at two-time MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic has put up two straight underwhelming games (by his standards) but was on a scorcher with 90.5, 78.75, and 72.25 DK points prior. He's averaging 65 DK points per game over his two games against the Lakers this season, and there's a good chance his usage and FPTS/min rates see a bump with Jamal Murray a true question mark to play.
Anthony Davis slots in as a solid pivot if you're looking for a GPP option, but his chances of outscoring Jokic are slim unless LeBron James sits. James is nine points away from the 40,000 mark for his career, so there's a possibility that we see a "Legacy Game" from him here. I don't see it happening against a strong Nuggets defense that he hasn't put up big numbers against this season. Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant are in a smash spot against the Grizzlies, while Fred VanVleet is way too cheap against a Suns team that gives up a lot of fantasy points to PGs.
Once again, we need more news to break for us to elevate our interest in a group of these top-end players on this slate. We can't afford to get to them with the severe lack of quality value options tonight, but that can change on a dime as weekends tend to be the time when coaches give rotation pieces their "rest" breaks.
Top Core Plays:
- Nikola Jokic, DEN vs. LAL - C ($11,400 DK; $12,300 FD)
- Anthony Davis, LAL vs. DEN - C ($10,200 DK; $11,400 FD)
- Fred VanVleet, HOU vs. PHX - PG ($6,900 DK; $7,700 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Value Plays
Using the same premium NBA projections, let's sort them by fantasy points per dollar to see what players are popping as the best values tonight.
You know the value options are in a rough spot when $11,400 Jokic is popping as the second-best available in the optimizer. Duop Reath crushed with 34.25 DK points over 23 minutes last night, and he should be in line for another big performance in the same matchup as long as Deandre Ayton remains out. There's a group of "other" Trail Blazers who are projecting well as value plays here, and they're all risky to varying degrees. This is a brutal game environment but a great matchup against a lowly Grizzlies team that could be without their best defender in Jaren Jackson Jr. Toumani Camara is ranked the highest here, but I'm more interested in Jabari Walker after he exploded for 41.5 DK points last night.
Matisse Thybulle can be rotated in as an unexciting value piece from the undermanned Blazers as well, but we're hoping some more value opens up with injury news as the day progresses. As it stands, our only option to get to Jokic is to play a bunch of these guys from Portland and sprinkle in some Dillon Brooks. Brooks has severely underperformed while exceeding 30 minutes in three straight games, so he's overdue for some slight regression to the mean tonight.
Top Value Plays:
- Duop Reath, POR vs. MEM - C ($4,600 DK; $5,000 FD)
- Jabari Walker, POR vs. MEM - PF/C ($4,100 DK; $4,300 FD)
- Toumani Camara, POR vs. MEM - SF/PF ($4,200 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Dillon Brooks, HOU vs. PHX - SG/SF ($4,600 DK; $4,700 FD)
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Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Point Guard
This position feels like the most important one to nail down on the slate, as we don't have any surefire values to pick from. Fred VanVleet is still underpriced for his role and recent production, and he's currently my top target at PG. While Anfernee Simons works as a GPP play in a great positional matchup against the Grizzlies, Jalen Green is the volatile scoring-centric guard I want to target for his upside. He hit 50.75 DK points in this matchup last game, and a repeat performance isn't out of the question. Jordan Goodwin is a player no one will be getting to, but he has been quietly solid with heavy minutes lately and the Blazers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to PGs over their last 30 games.
However, we'll have to consider an overpriced Reggie Jackson if we get the news that Murray is sitting out with his ankle injury. Both sites priced the veteran up in anticipation of Murray being inactive tonight, but he's still going to be someone we should take shots on with the Lakers allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to PGs this season. Don't go crazy here though - the upside simply isn't there.
Top PG Options:
- Fred VanVleet @ PHX ($6,900 DK; $7,700 FD)
- Jalen Green @ PHX ($6,300 DK; $6,500 FD)
- Anfernee Simons @ MEM ($7,700 DK; $7,700 FD)
- Jordan Goodwin vs. POR ($5,200 DK; $5,800 FD) Prefer on DraftKings
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Shooting Guard
Green and Simons are also top plays at shooting guard, and there's not much else that's exciting at this position. Dillon Brooks was covered in the Value Plays section, but he's someone I'm banking on a bounceback performance from after three consecutive brutal outputs. Devin Booker doesn't possess a high enough ceiling for my liking at his price, and the Rockets defend opposing backcourts well. I'd rather take some shots on the other mid-range options at the position, with Vince Williams Jr. and Austin Reaves being players I'd rotate in but not get too much exposure to.
Top SG Options:
- Jalen Green @ PHX ($6,300 DK; $6,500 FD)
- Anfernee Simons @ MEM ($7,700 DK; $7,700 FD)
- Dillon Brooks @ PHX ($4,600 DK; $4,700 FD)
- Vince Williams Jr. vs. POR ($6,600 DK; $6,900 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Small Forward
This slate is going to hinge on getting the Blazers' value right, and the SF position gives us four options from Portland to consider. Jerami Grant is reasonably priced and my favorite target at the position. He had a rough game last night in this same matchup, but it's a matchup he should thrive in and he has shown incredible upside (67.5 DK points on 2/8) on a team that needs a leader. Camara and Thybulle should also be mixed in as they project for high-20s minutes at cheap prices, while Brooks can also be used for this position.
Michael Porter Jr. is a player I'll be getting exposure to in tournaments. He's somewhat expensive, but he's cheaper than Grant and has just as good a chance at hitting a ceiling game tonight. MPJ had 58.75 DK points on Thursday against the Heat, and he gets a much more favorable matchup tonight against a Lakers team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to SFs this season. If Murray is out, Porter Jr. becomes a priority play with significant bumps to his usage rate and FPTS/min rate.
Top SF Options:
- Jerami Grant @ MEM ($7,300 DK; $7,600 FD)
- Michael Porter Jr. @ LAL ($7,000 DK; $6,800 FD)
- Toumani Camara @ MEM ($4,200 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Matisse Thybulle ($3,600 DK) DraftKings Only
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Power Forward
Jabari Walker is the GPP pick here. He doesn't project for a ton of minutes, but his 41.5 DK points performance over 22 minutes last night can't be ignored. We only need half of that for him to project as one of the best values on the slate, so we don't necessarily need him to shoot 7-for-9, snag 10 boards, and record three "stocks" to be useful. The Grizzlies are rolling out the same roster against him tonight, so we need to take some shots on Walker again.
Grant, Porter Jr., and Camara can also be mixed in at PF, and the only other callout to make here is that Aaron Gordon profiles as a solid mid-range option in an exploitable matchup against the Lakers. I don't like getting to James or Kevin Durant tonight, as doing so means Jokic is off the table and that's not a tactic I'm willing to deploy.
Top PF Options:
- Jerami Grant @ MEM ($7,300 DK; $7,600 FD)
- Michael Porter Jr. @ LAL ($7,000 DK; $6,800 FD)
- Toumani Camara @ MEM ($4,200 DK; $4,600 FD)
- Jabari Walker @ MEM ($4,100 DK; $4,300 FD)
Today's NBA DFS Lineup Picks: Center
Reath and Jokic are two of my favorite players on this slate, so they're going to be occupying my C and UTIL slots in a lot of lineups. That means I won't be recommending much else for players with only center eligibility. Anthony Davis can be utilized as a pivot off Jokic with his immense upside, but I'm not too interested in going down that route. Alperen Sengun is typically a player I like to get to due to his versatility, but he's a tough sell at his price with Jokic on the board.
- Nikola Jokic @ LAL ($11,400 DK; $12,300 FD)
- Duop Reath ($4,600 DK; $5,000 FD)
- Jabari Walker @ MEM ($4,100 DK; $4,300 FD)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stacks
- Houston @ Phoenix (232.5 total)
- Denver @ Los Angeles Lakers (227.5 total)
Today's Top NBA DFS Avoids
- I won't be getting to any of the Suns tonight. Their starting lineup is too stacked for me to be interested in them. It's extremely difficult for any one of them to put up a tournament-winning score when they're all as talented and usage-heavy as they are. Bradley Beal is probable, which only muddies the waters further here - it's a stay-away situation for me.
- He's not a true "avoid," but I'm not interested in getting to as much Reggie Jackson as the field if Jamal Murray sits. He's overpriced even for a starting role, and he doesn't have the type of upside I look for with the contests I play (tournaments).
- Royce O'Neal had a surprisingly useful run of production, but we can't play him at his pricing as he'll shift back to the bench with Beal back in the lineup.
My Favorite NBA DFS Lineup Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite overall play on the slate: Nikola Jokic
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Nikola Jokic
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: Jabari Walker / Michael Porter Jr.
- My favorite value play: Duop Reath
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