RADIO
We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
After a pretty mixed-up week with four teams having no games and four having two games, we are back to a normal gameweek. All 20 teams play one game each across three days, simplifying our FPL lineup choices. There are some intriguing games with some teams now also having to navigate the European competitions so expect things to get a little tricky to work out in the remaining weeks of the season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @wagmifantasy, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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Saturday, March 04th, 2023
Newcastle United (+550) at Manchester City (-230) 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 2 - 0 Newcastle United
City kept the pressure on Arsenal with a comprehensive 4-1 win at Bournemouth last Saturday. They once again tinkered with their lineup and it certainly worked but trying to predict their starting XI week-to-week is becoming a fruitless task. Newcastle lost the EFL Cup final 2-0 to Manchester United and is losing their grip on a top-4 place. They've not won any of their last four EPL games, scoring just three times in their last seven league games.
Erling Haaland is still the premium striking option in FPL and despite his torrid goalscoring pace slowing down, he's still scored nine goals with two assists since the World Cup (11 games). He's also scored or assisted in 11 of his 12 home EPL games. Even against the league's stingiest defense, Haaland is a great captain option this week. Outside of Haaland, it's hard to trust any City player as whether they start or not is up in the air. But Phil Foden put in a man-of-the-match performance last week and I expect him to start and tally some points this weekend.
For Newcastle, their lack of goals is becoming a real concern and the fact that defender Kieran Trippier is third on the team in expected goals involvement (xGI) sums up a lack of real attacking threat. City has conceded one goal in each of their last six games in all competitions but I'm still not confident in starting any Newcastle player outside of Trippier due to his dual-threat as a set-piece taker.
Bournemouth (+1000) at Arsenal (-475) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 3 - 0 Bournemouth
This is being written before Arsenal's midweek game against Everton, which could see them move five points clear. They lost to Everton only four weeks ago but back-to-back away wins seem to have set them up for another push to the title. Bournemouth will be keen to get through the next two games relatively unscathed as this game is sandwiched between home fixtures with Manchester City (which they lost 4-1) and Liverpool.
Gabriel Martinelli looks to have put his poor form behind him with a goal in back-to-back games, while Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard remain excellent options and they all work as an attacking trio in FPL. Leandro Trossard was man-of-the-match at Leicester after replacing Eddie Nketiah in the starting lineup to lead the attack. Both Trossard and Nketiah remain good options but it's difficult to predict who will start over the next couple of games so they are more DFS options.
For Bournemouth, I still like Marcus Tavernier (assuming his injury isn't serious) but outside of him, I have no interest in any Bournemouth player in FPL over their next two fixtures.
Crystal Palace (+280) at Aston Villa (+105) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 - 1 Crystal Palace
Villa ended their three-game losing streak (in which they conceded 11 goals) by beating Everton 2-0 away from home and moving level on points with tenth-placed Chelsea. They've scored in 11 straight EPL games, totaling 19 in that time. Palace picked up another decent point in drawing with Liverpool, their third straight draw. It's now eight games without a win and since they scored more than one in a game, tallying just four in their winless streak.
Villa has one of the most in-form players in FPL with Ollie Watkins scoring in five consecutive games. Emi Buendia also scored last weekend and now has three goals and an assist in his last eight games, making him an intriguing option to pair with Watkins. Although I wouldn't be surprised if Villa kept a clean sheet this weekend, their defense has been leaking goals and Everton had an xG total of 1.74 last weekend against them.
Palace desperately misses Wilfried Zaha and the fact he's still their top scorer with six goals despite missing the last four games through injury tells us all we need to know about their offensive struggles. He could feature this weekend but I'm not willing to start him in my FPL lineup as he may be eased back. The enigmatic Michael Olise is an interesting option with five assists (and two goals) this season and is someone I'd consider but more in DFS than FPL.
West Ham United (+320) at Brighton (-125) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 1 West Ham United
Brighton's defeat at home to Fulham two weeks ago was their first in six EPL games and they've now scored just twice in their last three games, after scoring 22 goals in their eight games prior. West Ham picked up a huge three points against Nottingham Forest last weekend to move them out of the relegation zone. They've lost just one of their last five league games coming into this weekend but they've lost seven of their last ten away games, with their only road win coming in gameweek four.
Brighton has had an extra week to prepare and try to get back their goalscoring form. The midfield quartet of Solly March (8.76 xGI), Kaoru Mitoma (5.02 xGI), Pascal Groß (7.65 xGI), and Alexis Mac Allister (7.27 xGI) are all fine options and my preference for them is that order. Pervis Estupiñán has three assists in four games and makes an interesting defensive option. But he is also carrying a muscle injury so isn't a guaranteed starter.
West Ham's Jarrod Bowen is someone I've been pumping in recent weeks. He was one of the most popular midfielders in FPL to start the season, struggled, and was dropped by many managers. Now, he's on only 2.9% of teams and hit the post last week as well as notching his fifth assist of the season. He has nine goal involvements in total but 11.3 xGI, which ranks seventh among all midfielders. Danny Ings scored his first (and second) goal for West Ham last weekend and has scored goals everywhere he goes so makes a fine alternative striker as he's currently rostered by just 1.4% of teams.
Leeds United (+425) at Chelsea (-160) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 - 0 Leeds United
It's now just one win in nine EPL games this calendar year for Chelsea, following their 2-0 loss at Tottenham last weekend. Chelsea's five-game winless streak has seen them score just once and their mega investment in new players doesn't look like it's going to pay off any time soon. Leeds picked up a massive win at home to Southampton (1-0) to get the Javi Gracia era off to a great start. They had gone winless in their previous ten EPL games and failed to score in four of their previous five games.
I'm still watching Chelsea's new attacking players but just can't bring myself to roster any until we see some consistent signs of life. Reece James remains an interesting option as they are still fairly solid defensively and his set-piece delivery can provide some points. It's a similar story for Leeds as I want to see more from them under Gracia before I roster anyone, with Wilfried Gnonto top of my watchlist.
Tottenham (+125) at Wolves (+215) 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 0 - 2 Tottenham
Wolves picked up a credible point at Fulham last weekend and will face Liverpool on Wednesday as they seek to put some daylight between themselves and the relegation zone. It's a familiar story for Wolves with goals being hard to come by, scoring five in two games and then once in their next two. Tottenham may have finally turned the corner with back-to-back 2-0 wins to see them solidify their top-4 aspirations.
Wolves lack of a goalscorer still has me out on them for FPL although Pablo Sarabia scoring his first goal for the club last weekend has me keeping tabs on him. Unfortunately, Wolves face Newcastle next so this run of games isn't appealing from an FPL standpoint. For Tottenham, Harry Kane continues to be the only other striker not named Erling Haaland a must-start, with 18 goals and six assists this season. Their newfound defensive solidity going against a side that struggles to score goals also makes Ivan Perišić a viable option despite his lack of goal involvement recently (none in seven games).
Leicester City (+160) at Southampton (+170) 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Southampton 1 - 2 Leicester City
Southampton suffered a tough 1-0 loss at Leeds and remains rooted to the foot of the table, four points from safety. They've failed to score more than once in eight consecutive home matches, scoring just six in that run. Leicester set an unwanted record last weekend. In their 1-0 defeat against Arsenal, they managed an xG total of just 0.01, which is the lowest since the stat began. Without James Maddison, they score half as many goals per game on average and that was on full display last weekend.
James Ward-Prowse is the only Southampton player worth rostering in FPL due to his dead-ball ability and Leicester has conceded the joint fifth most goals from set pieces while conceding the third most corners (148) this season. Leicester's FPL and match hopes rest solely on James Maddison. Averaging 0.9 goals a game without him but 1.8 when he starts, no team relies more on a single player than Leicester does on Maddison. Harvey Barnes (8.1 xGI) is another option, but he's also only appealing if Maddison starts.
Maddison is such a key player for Leicester that if he misses this game, I am certainly not backing them to score twice and win the game. A 1-1 scoreline is where I'd hedge but it will definitely change the dynamic of this fixture.
Sunday, March 05th, 2023
Everton (+185) at Nottingham Forest (+165) 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Everton
Forest's 4-0 loss at West Ham last weekend didn't tell the full story with the scoreline being 0-0 midway through the second half. Their struggles this season have been away games as they've picked up 19 of their 25 points at home and are unbeaten in their last eight home EPL games. Everton's 2-0 defeat at home to Aston Villa last week left them in the relegation zone but they could move out of it if they can beat league leaders Arsenal on Wednesday.
Forest away is an easy fade in FPL. At home, Morgan Gibbs-White and Brennan Johnson are two players of intrigue. Gibbs-White has two goals and six assists this season, all at home (12 games) while Johnson has three goals in his last three home games. Adding in a Forest defender with either of those two is something I'd be considering as a contrarian play this week.
Everton's still struggling for goals with just two scored in the four games since Sean Dyche took over. Both goals were scored by defenders too. I like Amadou Onana but with just 3.6 xGI this season and on a team that doesn't score many, he's more of a longshot play if you need to make up ground in your leagues.
Manchester United (+180) at Liverpool (+145) 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 2 Manchester United
Just as Liverpool looked "back" following consecutive 2-0 wins, they had a goalless draw with Crystal Palace at the weekend so go into Wednesday's game with Wolves nine points adrift of the Champions League qualification places. Manchester United won the EFL Cup at the weekend and turn their attention back to the league, where they have scored at least two goals in each of their last five games.
There are a lot of good fantasy options in this game, led by Marcus Rashford who has ten goals and two assists in his last ten EPL games. Bruno Fernandes has eight goal involvements in his last nine games so pairing the United duo could pay off handsomely. Liverpool's Mo Salah and Cody Gakpo are my two favored plays for the home side, both of them having two goal involvements in their previous three games.
Although I think this could be a high-scoring encounter, Liverpool has kept three consecutive clean sheets prior to Wednesday's game while Manchester United has kept two on the trot. There's a very real possibility this game ends goalless or is won by a solitary goal so I'm not confident using the captain's armband on anyone in this fixture.
Monday, March 06th, 2023
Fulham (+260) at Brentford (+100) 03:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Brentford 1 - 1 Fulham
Although unbeaten in their last 11 EPL games, Brentford drawing six of the games has stopped them from catching sixth-placed Fulham in the table. They have a 6-5-1 record at home and 2-6-3 on the road, winning three of their last four home games. Fulham is unbeaten in their last four EPL games but scored just four in that span. But Fulham has held their opponents to no more than one goal in each of their last 11 league games.
Ivan Toney will be a popular play this week but as mentioned, Fulham's defense has been quite stingy lately and Toney only has two goals in his last six EPL games (one of which shouldn't have stood). Bryan Mbuemo has five goal involvements in his last four home games so he would be someone I'd be keener to start. Mathias Jensen's set-piece play also has some appeal.
For Fulham, Aleksandar Mitrović missed their last two games but returned in midweek for their FA Cup tie. He didn't score and failed to find the net in his last four EPL starts as well so I'm fading him right now. But someone who did score in midweek makes my unloved nuggets list and is someone I'd be more than willing to start this week as a variant play, especially if you're playing catch-up in my leagues.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays (moneyline, total goals and both teams to score) and we'll be playing three parlays using every game once with a total of ten units played. The picks for each parlay are highlighted in bold for each game, but feel free to utilize the table as you wish.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| Man City 2 – 0 Newcastle | Man City -230 | u2.5 +120 | No -105 |
| Arsenal 3 - 0 Bournemouth | Arsenal -475 | o2.5 -175 | No -165 |
| Aston Villa 2 - 1 Crystal Palace | Aston Villa +105 | o2.5 +125 | Yes -105 |
| Brighton 1 - 1 West Ham | Draw +280 | u2.5 -120 | Yes -125 |
| Chelsea 1 - 0 Leeds United | Chelsea -160 | u2.5 -105 | No +100 |
| Wolves 0 - 2 Tottenham | Tottenham +125 | u2.5 -125 | No +105 |
| Southampton 1 - 2 Leicester | Leicester +160 | o2.5 -105 | Yes -140 |
| Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 Everton | Nottingham Forest +165 | u2.5 -195 | No -130 |
| Liverpool 2 - 2 Man United | Draw +255 | o2.5 -155 | Yes -195 |
| Brentford 1 - 1 Fulham | Draw +265 | u2.5 -120 | Yes -130 |
| Season totals | 12/28 | 17/28 | 11/28 |
Parlays
Moneyline (+561) 3.5 units
Over/Under 2.5 goals (+806) 3 units
Both teams to score (+381) 3.5 units
Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Plays & Picks
This is our new weekly section that will look at specific players (and teams) with regard to FPL. We'll look at the best defense to stack, low-rostered players set to offer big returns, high-rostered dud plays, someone to keep an eye on, and the best captain choice for this week.
Stack the D
Chelsea can't score for love or money right now, but they do still provide defensive solidity, especially at home. In their last eight home games, they've kept four clean sheets and only conceded one goal in each of the other four. Three of those games were against the current top-3 in the league and the other goal was a James Ward-Prowse free-kick.
Leeds has failed to score in four of their last six EPL games, failed to score in their midweek FA Cup tie with Fulham and last week's 1-0 win came against bottom-of-the-table Southampton. You're not starting any Chelsea attacking players in FPL so stacking their defense around Reece James is a great play this week.
Unloved nuggets
Manor Solomon has come off the bench to score in three consecutive EPL games for Fulham. He was rewarded with a start in midweek and scored again so is almost a certainty to start at Brentford. While it's not a great matchup, it's far from dreadful. At just £4.9m and rostered by 0.1% of teams, Solomon is a fantastic differential play and someone I'd even consider if I'm atop my leagues.
Avoid the trap
Miguel Almirón's hot streak seems like months ago. And that's because it was. After eight goals and two assists in nine games, he's scored once in his last seven games and has no assists in that run. He's still rostered by 24.3% of teams and now has to face Manchester City on the road. He's destined to score a solitary point for making an appearance and with so many enticing midfield options this week and some with a double gameweek next week, he's someone I'd be looking to oust for an alternative sooner rather than later.
For the watchlist
Diogo Jota started his first EPL game since gameweek 11 last weekend and while he failed to register anything significant, the fact Liverpool is continuously searching for the right balance could lead to him becoming a more regular starter. I'm not willing to pay the £8.8m it takes to roster him but I'm certainly intrigued to see if he can get back to his best in the coming weeks.
Jadon Sancho's story is similar to Jota's in that he's just returned from a lengthy injury. Sancho, however, has scored in two of his last three appearances (both from the bench). While Rashford has been tearing up the league from the left wing, Sancho could find himself doing the same from the opposite flank so if he can force his way into a regular starting role, Erik ten Hag might be able to get the best out of him.
Lock of the week
I mentioned it in the game preview, but Erling Haaland is a different animal at home. In 12 home appearances (11 starts) Haaland has 18 goals and four assists. He has four hat-tricks at home and five times he's had more than one goal involvement in the game. Although he will be the most popular captain pick this week, sometimes you have to go with the chalk and there's no one more likely to get double-digit points this week.
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
