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Unfortunately, Week 1 of the 2024 NFL regular season is still over six months away. However, the game of fantasy football is a year-round event. Therefore, it’s never too soon to prepare for your upcoming fantasy football drafts.
Last year, the running back position was full of surprises. Kyren Williams was a top-six running back despite no one expecting him to have a meaningful role in 2023. Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler was a massive fantasy bust as a top-tier running back off the board.
Let’s dive into some potential ADP values, busts, and sleeper candidates for the running back position for the 2024 season. The ADP for the article is courtesy of Underdog Fantasy.
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Running Back Values
David Montgomery (DET): ADP 72.9 | RB19
Many had doubts about Montgomery heading into the 2023 season. The former Iowa State star was coming off the worst year of his career, totaling a career-low 801 rushing yards with the Chicago Bears. More importantly, Jahmyr Gibbs was the new shiny draft pick and presumed featured guy for the Lions. However, the veteran ended the season as the RB13, averaging 14.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game, totaling a career-high 13 rushing touchdowns in 14 contests. The touchdown machine was a plug-and-play running back for fantasy players every week.
ANOTHER ONE FOR @MontgomerDavid ‼️
📺: #CARvsDET on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/LxW25sxi72 pic.twitter.com/o7PCvlzlEI— NFL (@NFL) October 8, 2023
Montgomery had double-digit fantasy points in every game he finished except for one last year. While Gibbs ended his rookie season as the RB10, he averaged only 0.2 more fantasy points per game than Montgomery. Furthermore, Montgomery averaged 17.1 touches per game compared to 14.1 for Gibbs in the 10 contests when both running backs played at least 35% of the snaps. Detroit wants to run the ball, ranking seventh in rushing attempts last season. Don’t expect that philosophy to change with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson sticking around.
James Conner (ARI): ADP 82.2 | RB22
Some fantasy players avoid drafting Conner because he isn’t a sexy pick. However, the veteran will be one of my favorite draft targets next season unless the Cardinals use an early pick in the NFL Draft on a rookie running back. Conner turns 29 in May, making him one of the older starting running backs in the league. Yet, he has remained productive for Arizona and fantasy players. The veteran has finished as a top-10 running back in half-point PPR scoring on a points-per-game basis in back-to-back years.
The knock against Conner is his injury history, having missed four games in back-to-back seasons. Yet, the injury concern is already baked into his ADP. The former Pittsburgh star has never finished lower than the RB20 since joining the Cardinals, including a top-five finish in 2021. More importantly, he was one of the more explosive running backs last year. Conner’s 6.3% explosive run rate ranked fifth among 41 running backs with at least 110 rushing attempts last season (per Fantasy Points Data).
Running Back Busts
Aaron Jones (MIN): ADP 65.9 | RB16
While Jones had an impressive run during the playoffs, fantasy players should have concerns about the veteran running back next year. The former Green Bay Packer averaged 5.8 yards per rushing attempt and 23.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in two playoff contests. However, Jones was significantly worse during the regular season, averaging 4.6 yards per rushing attempt and 10.9 fantasy points per game. He matched his career low in yards per rushing attempt (2019) while posting his lowest fantasy points per game average since his rookie season.
Jones missed six games in 2023 with multiple injuries after playing in at least 14 contests in four consecutive years. More importantly, his touchdown production has disappeared, totaling eight rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons. By comparison, he had eight or more rushing touchdowns in three consecutive years before the regression. Jones signed a one-year deal with the Vikings this offseason, joining Ty Chandler in the backfield. The veteran won’t have a featured role and has shown signs of decline. His ADP is too high, given the red flags.
Nick Chubb (CLE): ADP 87.1 | RB24
Unfortunately, Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury in Week 2, ending his season. The star running back had a similar injury in college, but that was nearly a decade ago. The veteran scored 21.1 half-point PPR fantasy points in five quarters of action last year before getting hurt. Adjusting for playing only five quarters of football, he would have averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game in 2023. By comparison, Chubb averaged between 14.7 and 16.6 fantasy points per game every season from his second year in the league through 2022.
Had the veteran gotten suspended for the season instead of suffering a gruesome knee injury, fantasy players should want him on their team next year. According to Fantasy Points Data, Chubb’s explosive run rate of 7.1% in 2023 was on par with his averages from 2022 (7.6%) and 2021 (7.5%). However, he required multiple surgeries on the injured knee. Reportedly, the star running back won’t be ready for Week 1 and could miss a chunk of the season. Cleveland signed two running backs in free agency and could draft another.
An update on Nick Chubb after undergoing surgery.
📰» https://t.co/fB8jNUFKqq pic.twitter.com/3f0WILOll9
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) September 30, 2023
Running Back Sleepers
Zamir White (LV): ADP 103.9 | RB32
The former Georgia star has had limited fantasy value his first two years in the NFL. White has averaged only 4.2 yards per rushing attempt and 2.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in his career. Yet, he is a breakout candidate despite ending the 2023 season as the RB56, averaging 3.9 fantasy points per game after the Raiders lost Josh Jacobs in free agency. White was a fantasy star over the final four weeks after totaling only 20 rushing attempts over the first 13 contests.
When Jacobs suffered a quad in Week 14, Las Vegas turned to the second-year running back. White was outstanding as the starter, averaging 21 rushing attempts for 99.3 yards and 14.1 fantasy points per game, totaling 12.6 or more every week. Furthermore, he was the RB8 over the final four weeks, averaging 4.7 yards per rushing attempt, including 3.06 yards after contact per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). While the team signed Alexander Mattison, the veteran is no threat to White’s featured role for the Raiders.
UPDATE: Alexander Mattison is signing with the Las Vegas Raiders, according to @Schultz_Report.
Mattison will provide solid depth to this backfield, but this should be the Zamir White show in 2024. https://t.co/fE8lNoll2S
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) March 18, 2024
Chase Brown (CIN): ADP 109.8 | RB33
After seven years with the Bengals, Joe Mixon got traded to the Houston Texans this offseason. Zack Moss signed a two-year deal with Cincinnati, replacing the star running back. However, Brown is the Bengals running back that fantasy players want to draft in 2024. He didn’t have a role on offense until Week 13. However, Brown was the RB35 in half-point PPR scoring over the final six weeks of the 2023 season despite averaging only 8.8 touches per game as a role player.
Meanwhile, Moss played five games last season without Jonathan Taylor. However, his 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt, and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023 (per Fantasy Points Data). More importantly, Brown had a higher explosive run rate (9.1% vs. 3.1%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.09 vs. 2.29) than the veteran last year. I’m betting on Brown to be the Week 1 starter.
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