Dynasty Team Analysis - San Francisco 49ers

After an embarrassing 2016 regular season resulted in a 2-14 record, the 49ers performed a complete overhaul. New General Manager John Lynch and first-time head coach Kyle Shanahan were chosen to resurrect the fortunes of a franchise that had descended into a chasm, and proceeded to build a roster that recovered from an 0-9 start to prevail in six of their final seven contests. Five of those wins were registered once Jimmy Garoppolo was placed under center in Week 13.

Now, the expectations for San Francisco are significantly higher, as that encouraging stretch drive created a promising outlook for fans and owners that ascends far beyond the team's 6-10 record. The combination of Shanahan’s offensive acumen and Garoppolo’s ability to spearhead the attack, provide enticing fantasy options within an offense that appears primed to flourish.

Here at RotoBaller, we are examining all 32 teams in our offseason Dynasty Team outlook series. We have already discussed every franchise leading up to the NFL Draft, and will continue to review them as the offseason continues, including which players you should trust, and which players you should avoid. We will also provide our recommendations on sleepers and busts, while exploring every critical position. Today's topic: the San Francisco 49ers.

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San Francisco 49ers Dynasty Outlook

Team Record: 6-10 (4th NFC West)

Fantasy Leaders

QB: C.J. Beathard - 88.8 (QB33)
RB: Carlos Hyde - 234.0 (RB8)
WR: Marquise Goodwin - 168.6 (WR31)
TE: George Kittle - 106.5 - (TE19)
IDP: Dontae Johnson - 136.34 (CB16)

Quarterback

After San Francisco's first 11 games, Brian Hoyer and C.J. Beathard had combined for a forgettable 1-10 record, 2,675 yards, eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Fortunately, Jimmy Garoppolo had been pilfered from the Patriots, and elevating him into the starting role quickly transformed what was destined to be another lost season. The 5-0 record that ensued with Garoppolo under center was constructed through a promising series of performances, that buoyed the confidence of fans and the fantasy community. He averaged 308 YPG between Weeks 13-17, which helped the offense generate an additional 88 YPG, including 75 more through the air.  Those late season efforts also secured Garoppolo a five-year, $137.5 million-dollar contract.

While he enters 2018 with just seven career starts, any reluctance to trust in his ability to deliver QB1 production throughout the course of 16 games should be tempered by the track record of his head coach as an offensive architect. Shanahan’s strategic approach and play calling capabilities at each stop of his career should compel potential owners to strongly consider drafting Garoppolo, along with the other primary skill players from this year’s 49er attack.

Shanahan’s resume includes nine seasons as the offensive coordinator for four different franchises - Houston (2008-2009), Washington (2010-2013), Cleveland (2014), and Atlanta (2015-2016). Both of his offenses ranked within the top four during his tenure with the Texans (3rd/4th), the final installments of his Redskin offense ranked inside the top nine (5th/9th), and his highly successful stint with the Falcons culminated with the NFL’s second best attack in 2016. That unit also averaged a whopping 415.8 YPG, while also ranking first in points (33.8 PPG), third in passing yardage (295.3 YPG) and fifth in rushing yardage (120.5 YPG).

Even though he inherited a San Francisco offense that finished a woeful 31st in 2016 (308 YPG), Shanahan’s expertise helped boost that ranking to a respectable 12^th in 2017, while the YPG average vaulted 40 yards (349). Past performances from signal callers that operated under Shanahan should also instill confidence that Garoppolo will achieve excellent production while guiding the San Francisco attack. Matt Ryan delivered what were easily the best numbers of his career in 2016 (4,944 yards/38 touchdowns), after averaging 4,095 yards and just 24.6 touchdowns during the other nine seasons with Atlanta. Matt Schaub (2009) and Robert Griffin III (2012) also constructed their most productive seasons, which underscores the premise that even though Garoppolo's history as a starter remains limited, the success of the offenses that his head coach has implemented is not.

Running Back

Carlos Hyde led the 49ers in rushing for the third consecutive year in 2017, and his 940 yards placed him 13th overall. He also tied for sixth with eight touchdowns, while appearing to capitalize on the NFL’s fifth most red zone carries (41). However, there were several lingering concerns as the season unfolded, including his career low 3.9 YPC average. Hyde also did not receive a single attempt inside the 5, and was limited to 14 carries or less in seven different contests. This occurred because Shanahan made a concerted effort to also deploy Matt Breida, while preferring to feed the back that he believed was performing most effectively during each particular game.

Hyde was the fifth most targeted runner (90), and just six backs garnered more red zone targets (11). However, his 350 yards placed him just 17^th, while he failed to register one catch of 20+ yards. The likelihood that Lynch and Shanahan would use free agency to acquire a back whose skill set can thrive in Shanahan's scheme was solidified when Hyde signed a three-year contract with Cleveland. Their quest for a new RB1 coincided with Jerick McKinnon’s desire to locate a situation in which he could commandeer an extensive role.

The former Viking had generated a career best 570 rushing yards in 2017, even though he only played on 47% of Minnesota’s offensive snaps. McKinnon also finished 13th among all backs in targets (73), while establishing new career highs in receptions (51), and receiving yards (421). While his career output is uninspiring, he presents sizable potential to explode for big plays when schematically presented with open space. This should occur consistently, as he is deployed in various formations to exploit matchup advantages.

The success that Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman experienced under Shanahan is commonly known. But the productivity of backs while operating within his offense can be traced back to 2008, when Steve Slaton finished sixth in rushing as a rookie (1,282 yards), while averaging 4.8 YPC. Four years later, Albert Morris finished second overall with 1,613 yards while matching that 4.8 average. Anyone who is hesitant about selecting him early in their drafts should shift their focus toward the consistency in which lead backs have flourished while functioning in Shanahan's schematic approach. While McKinnon is the most critical commodity within the backfield, Breida finished eighth among rookie backs with 465 rushing yards, and should continue operating in the RB2 role.

Wide Receiver

Pierre Garcon had already collected 40 of his 69 targets for an even 500 yards before a neck injury prematurely concluded his season in Week 8. It was the first time that he'd been sidelined for a game since 2012, and disrupted a steady rate of production that would have tied him for 14th in receptions, and 16th in yardage if that pace had continued for 16 games.  Even though Garcon's consistent efforts were interrupted, he still provides a veteran presence, while already possessing valuable experience in Shanahan's offense.

The most prolific season of his career occurred in 2013, when Shanahan was engineering Washington's attack, as Garcon led the NFL in targets (184) and receptions (113), while generating a career-high 1,346 yards. He also surpassed 1,000 yards during his final season as a Redskin in 2016 (1,041), while leading the team in targets (116) and receptions (79). Those numbers were accomplished even though he was operating within a passing attack that included Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, DeSean Jackson and Chris Thompson. He will line up as Garoppolo's WR1, while operating as a proficient point producer in PPR leagues.

After Garcon was unavailable, Marquise Goodwin ascended into the WR1 slot for the first time in his career. The former Bill shattered his previous career highs by capturing 56 of his 105 targets, narrowly missing 1,000 yards (962), and finishing third among all receivers with a 17,2 YPC average. His 16 red zone targets placed him 19^th overall, and he averaged 96 YPG from Weeks 10-15. His late-season chemistry with Garoppolo should be beneficial, as he functions as San Francisco’s WR2 opposite Garcon. Trent Taylor and rookie Dante Pettis would each supply more value if they were not on the same roster. While Shanahan might deploy them in different roles, their mutual presence leaves them relegated to late round flier status.

Tight End

George Kittle has the potential to deliver a significant boost to his 2017 output, which has made him an intriguing option after the first 11-12 tight ends have been selected during your drafts. He finished second among rookies at his position in receptions (43) and receiving yards (521), even though his snap count (591/53.7%) was just 25th overall, and barely exceeded the count of teammate Garrett Celek (561/51%). However, Kittle has an entire year of experience with Shanahan’s offense, and should capture a higher snap count this season.

Kittle is also healthy, after contending with an array of issues throughout his first year (ankle/hamstring/calf/chest/hip/back/elbow). He was only absent from the lineup for one contest, but the health challenges impacted his workload. He still manufactured respectable production, while Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Jimmy Graham were the only tight ends who exceeded his 16 red zone targets. There is no reason to expect those opportunities to diminish, as Garoppolo should continue using Kittle as a preferred red zone weapon.

He can be selected as a TE2, in hopes that he can deliver production that approaches TE1 territory.  Celek begins his seventh season as a 49er with a chance to continue siphoning snaps and targets. However, he does not share Kittle's pedigree as a draft pick that was selected by Lynch and Shanahan, and is unlikely to sustain last year's level of usage. This should keep him cemented beyond the boundary of your fantasy radar.

IDP

After finishing dead last in total defense and rushing defense during 2016 (406 YPG/166 YPG), San Francisco provided more resistance last season, ranking 24th overall (351.6 YPG) and 22nd against both the run (116.3 YPG) and the pass (235 YPG). Even though just five teams generated fewer sacks last season (30), DeForest Buckner has developed into one of the league's premier interior defenders, while joining ends Arik Armstead and Solomon Thomas in forming the team’s respectable defensive front. This trio also provides owners with their best IDP options.

The exoneration of Reuben Foster in his domestic violence case was clearly a favorable development, and he will be joined at inside linebacker by Malcolm Smith, and promising rookie Fred Warner. While Warner should carve out an increasing role as the season progresses, the outside linebacking remains a concern. Former Seahawk Richard Sherman has altered the equation for a secondary that otherwise contains definitive question marks. Ahkelo Witherspoon is a strong candidate to line up opposite the 30-year Sherman. Jaquiski Tartt should start at strong safety, but it is unclear whether veteran Jimmy Ward and rookies Tarvarius Moore and D.J. Reed will be deployed at cornerback or safety.

Offseason Outlook

2018 Draft Picks: 

Mike McGlinchey, OT (#9) 
Dante Pettis, WR (#44)
Fred Warner, LB (#70)
Tarvarius Moore, DB (#95)
Kentavius Street, DL (#128)
D.J. Reed, CB (#142)
Marcell Harris, S (#184)
Julian Taylor, DT (#223)
Richie James, WR (#240) 

Team Draft Results

The 49ers utilized nine picks during the draft process, and Lynch applied six of those selections toward fortifying their defensive unit. However, he began the process by selecting the athletic Mike McGlinchey, who will provide a 6'8" safeguard at right tackle. The team traded up to secure Pettis with the 44th pick, and he delivers the potential to contribute as both a receiver and return specialist.

Warner was the first defender chosen in Round 3 and could easily be the most impactful. Moore, Reed, and Harris will all compete for playing time in the defensive backfield, even they could line up at cornerback, safety, or both. Harris is returning after missing all of 2017 with a torn Achilles, while Street tore an ACL in April, and will likely miss the 2018 regular season.  McGlinchey and Warner should secure the most integral roles this season, while Pettis, Moore and Reed are likely contributors for what will be an improved team on both sides of the ball.

More 2018 Team Outlooks