Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Drafts: Overvalued First-Round Busts In 2025

May 5, 2025

Frank's potential busts in the first round of 2025 dynasty fantasy football rookie drafts. His avoids include Cam Ward, Quinshon Judkins, and Matthew Golden.

The 2025 NFL Draft has come and gone, so we have a better sense of rookie values due to draft capital and landing spots. Now we know the level of investment each team has made in their players and can project their paths to playing time.

Dynasty rookie drafts are well underway, so it's time to figure out potential busts, based on a few factors, such as draft cost, player profile, and more. You want to avoid "landmines" in the first round. Hitting on these picks is huge for sustainable success in your dynasty leagues.

With that in mind, let's dive into potential first-round busts in 2025 rookie drafts. We'll use Sleeper ADP for this data because this is the most active platform for dynasty leagues right now.

Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward could go at 1.02 in SuperFlex Dynasty Rookie Drafts and it wouldn’t be a reach

1.02-1.05 is the range we’d take him

16-18 points a game is all we can ask for

He’s going to make the highlight plays to drive up his value pic.twitter.com/AuXvdnfEXt

— The FF Dynasty (@TheFFdynasty) April 29, 2025

Cam Ward is currently being drafted fourth overall on average in SuperFlex formats. The first overall pick is coming off a terrific senior season at Miami, where he completed over 67 percent of his passes for 4,313 yards with 39 touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 9.5 yards per attempt.

This is a 6-foot-2, 219-pound gunslinger who is unafraid to push the ball downfield. There is also mobility to evade pass rushers and contribute some production on the ground. In other words, there's a lot to like about Ward as a quarterback prospect. You must also be intrigued to see what Ward can do with Brian Callahan, who worked with Joe Burrow as Bengals offensive coordinator before coming on as Titans head coach.

Despite the prospect profile and team context, Ward looks like a potential first-round bust in rookie drafts. This is strictly related to his price, where he's being drafted ahead of one of the top wideouts in Tetairoa McMillan -- who can immediately step in as the top target for Bryce Young.

It's also worth noting that Ward is considered to be one of the weaker first overall picks in recent memory. In fact, the Hurricanes' standout likely would have been the fifth quarterback off the board in the 2024 draft, behind Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, and J.J. McCarthy.

With that in mind, we have to acknowledge the slight risk that Ward completely busts. This gives him a lower floor than players like McMillan, who can make an immediate impact as the WR1 in Carolina. You also have to consider that Ward may take some time to produce in fantasy. Just look at how Young took over a year to get on track for the Panthers.

To sum up, I'm not low on Ward as a player; I would just rather take McMillan one pick later. You can also take a shot at an explosive running back like TreVeyon Henderson two picks later. This is why I have Ward as one of my potential busts in rookie drafts—he's just a bit too expensive.

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns

Quinshon Judkins might not be prime Nick Chubb – but he’s going to get fed like him.

270+ carries both years at Ole Miss.

45 touches more than TreVeyon Henderson at Ohio State.

Only RB other than Adrian Peterson to post 1,500+ rushing yards & 15+ rushing TD’s as a true… pic.twitter.com/wijFrmnqk6

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) April 26, 2025

Quinshon Judkins has a seventh overall average draft position in SuperFlex leagues. The 36th overall pick had a productive college career, highlighted by 1,060 yards and 14 touchdowns at 5.5 yards per carry for Ohio State. We also saw Judkins eclipse 1,100 rushing yards in each of his two seasons at Ole Miss.

Here we have a 6-foot, 221-pound back with the frame to handle heavy volume for the Browns. There's a good chance that we'll see Judkins lead the team in carries, as Jerome Ford is his competition, with the team not expected to bring back Nick Chubb. It's clear that Judkins has appeal in redraft leagues for his potential first-year impact. My issue is that I prefer other players later in the first round.

One of those players is wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, who landed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round. Round 1 draft capital aside, investing in receivers in dynasty is better because they're more stable assets. While Judkins can produce at a higher level for the first year or two, Egbuka feels like the safer play.

If you're looking at running back in the first round at the seventh pick, it may be a good idea to try to trade down in the draft. There are other players with similar talent who also landed in favorable spots, such as Kaleb Johnson with the Pittsburgh Steelers and RJ Harvey with the Denver Broncos. Getting a third-round pick could be a nice sweetener to trade down a couple of spots.

The other move you can make is to take Judkins at seven and then try to trade him if he looks good in a heavy role early in the season. As with Ward, this isn't a knock on the player; it's just recognizing that there are other intriguing values at cheaper prices.

Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers

When I’m evaluating WR I pay particular attention to a players catch to acceleration transition.

Matthew Golden’s ability to create after the catch on hitch routes (one of the most frequently run routes in the NFL) is outstanding.

No wasted movement. Very Good Player #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/4Kv17C3CQv

— Ray G (@RayGQue) March 18, 2025

Matthew Golden has an ADP of 12th overall in one-quarterback formats, which looks a bit too expensive for me. The 23rd overall pick is coming off a terrific junior year with 58 catches for 987 yards and nine touchdowns. This is a player who ran a 4.29 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, so there's elite speed here.

Here we have a 5-foot-11, 191-pound wideout who has been compared to Chris Olave by Lance Zierlein of NFL.com. This is because he's a downfield threat who can also make plays underneath due to his route-running ability. The landing spot in Green Bay is great, as there's a path for Golden to emerge as Jordan Love's top target. Even with a crowded WR room, there's no legit alpha here.

With that said, I'm looking at Golden as a potential bust in round one because I prefer another receiver prospect who goes a few picks later in Luther Burden III. This is a player who put up 1,212 yards as a sophomore at Missouri. The reason why Burden goes a bit later is because he has second-round draft capital while in a tougher spot trying to surpass DJ Moore and Rome Odunze.

But there's a legit chance that Burden is the better prospect, so why not take a shot by trading down from 12 to get additional assets? You can secure another third-rounder just for moving down a couple of spots. Remember that this is a wideout that was hand-picked by one of the best offensive minds in Ben Johnson -- Moore and Odunze are from the previous regime.

Similar to Ward and Judkins, this isn't a complete fade of Burden. It's understanding value in the draft by looking for spots to trade down. Remember that it's difficult to project rookies in the NFL. We often get things wrong, so it's good to lock in more picks by making moves in the draft. Golden very well could emerge as a star wideout, but at this stage, I prefer to target Burden a few picks later.

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