Dynasty Fantasy Football Risers and Fallers - December 2024 Market Report

December 4, 2024

After the 2024 NFL season started, how have the dynasty fantasy football values of players changed? Who gained value and who lost it? Read the latest fantasy update (December 2024).

'Tis the season to be making dynasty trades. With Christmas only a few weeks away, let's look at which fantasy assets we must wrap up and place under our tree this holiday season.

Each month, our team of RotoBaller experts, which includes Brandon Murchison (@RotoSuperstar), Jorden Hill (@JordenHill95), Matt Terrelle (@SuperMT), and myself (@MattDonnellyFF), update our dynasty rankings as the market changes.

Looking at our monthly consensus, we can identify fantasy football's biggest risers and those fantasy assets trending downward to allow you to stay ahead of the competition. With this insight and the dynasty trade chart, you can buy low and sell high as the market adjusts.

Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings (December 2024)

Trending Upward

Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (+18)

Previous rank: 27

Current rank: 10

At this point, Brock Bowers has made a strong case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Through his first 12 games, Bowers has accumulated 84 receptions and turned that into four touchdowns and 884 receiving yards, averaging 73.7 yards per game and 10.5 yards per reception.

Those 884 receiving yards not only lead all rookies but are also 103 more yards than Trey McBride (781), who sits second in tight-end receiving this season. 

Still waiting to be impressed, only Ja'Marr Chase (1,142), Justin Jefferson (1,038), and Terry McLaurin (896) have more receiving yards this season than Bowers. When I look at my dynasty rankings, Chase, Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Nico Collins, and perhaps Malik Nabers are the only receivers I would value over Bowers in PPR formats.

The term "generational" is thrown out too loosely these days. That said, Bowers may indeed be generational. His 17-game pace has him in line for 119 receptions, 1,252 receiving yards, and six touchdowns. Sam LaPorta holds the record for receptions by a rookie tight end with 86. Puka Nacua set the rookie record for receptions last season with 105. Zach Ertz's 116 receptions in 2018 are the most by a tight end in a single season. 

Brock Bowers is really in a tier of his own man

Here’s his 17 Game Pace:

➖119 Receptions
➖1,252 Yards
➖6 TD’s

The most receptions by a rookie TE?

Sam LaPorta: 86

The most receptions by a TE?

Zach Ertz: 116

We thought LaPorta was unreal last year

Bowers is generational pic.twitter.com/jk0OjQoJUk

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) November 30, 2024

Bowers is chasing greatness. If he were to stay the course, those 119 projected receptions would tie him with Tyreek Hill (2022) for 19th all-time in a single season. He's been doing this with Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell under center, so Las Vegas will most likely address the quarterback position in the 2025 NFL Draft.

Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (+23)

Previous rank: 53

Current rank: 31

In a rookie class that featured Malik Nabers, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall, Xavier Legette, and Keon Coleman, an argument is there that Ladd McConkey could be better than all eight receivers selected ahead of him. 

Ladd McConkey better than advertised. An argument could be made that he is the WR1 from the 2024 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/LZUj1lHv8M

— Matt Donnelly (@MattDonnellyFF) December 3, 2024

When we look at the rookie receiving yards heading into December, McConkey's 815 receiving yards are more than any other receiver from the draft class and 69 receiving yards shy of Bowers. For me, McConkey comes in as the WR11 in a dynasty league, right in the same tier as Puka Nacua, Drake London, and Harrison.

Since Week 8, McConkey has been averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game and produced 101 total fantasy points, securing him the WR9 overall. In Week 13, McConkey returned to Georgia and caught nine passes for 117 yards. Justin Herbert only attempted 23 passes and completed just 16 for 147 yards. With 21 receptions and 323 receiving yards over the last three games, it's safe to say that a WR1 is emerging in Los Angeles.

I'll leave this last little piece of evidence as to why we see a meteoric rise in McConkey's value. Among his WR/TE peers under age 23, this is how McConkey has stacked up in yards per route run since 2014 (300 routes minimum), per Jacob Gibbs.

Here's where Ladd McConkey currently ranks among WR/TEs under the age of 23, in terms of yards per route run (minimum 300 routes, dating back to 2014)

Ahead of early-career Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, Drake London pic.twitter.com/JCvEt1TLKG

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 2, 2024

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Cleveland Browns (+33)

Previous rank: 137

Current rank: 105

It's hard to believe that Jerry Jeudy is only 25 years old. It already feels like he's a 10-year veteran and should be aging out of many dynasty rosters. However, Jeudy has found the fountain of youth, and it's in Cleveland alongside Jameis Winston.

I'm uncertain what the future holds, as the Browns still seem committed to Deshaun Watson, but I know what Jeudy has been doing since Winston took over under center can't be ignored. Yet, somehow, we ignored all the signs because the fantasy production wasn't there in previous seasons.

Last season, we saw a receiver who led the NFL in crossers, ins, and outs when looking at Jeudy's separation scores. For any horizontally breaking route, his 0.367 average separation score topped the list, per Fantasy Points Data. Jeudy also excelled in coverage, with his 0.471 versus Cover 0 leading the way.

Thanks to @fantasyptsdata's ASS (Average Separation Score)

Jerry Jeudy's 5th-year breakout didn't come as a total shock to @FantasyPts subscribers pic.twitter.com/Kdn0qKisVf

— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) December 3, 2024

Get this man a quarterback and see what happens. Jeudy had 21 receptions for 266 receiving yards and a touchdown in Weeks 1-7, and for fantasy, that's about 55.6 fantasy points in PPR formats. However, since Winston was named the starter, Jeudy has produced 108.4 fantasy points in five games thanks to 33 receptions for 614 receiving yards and a pair of scores.

With four games remaining on the schedule, Jeudy is 93 yards shy of setting a new career high and 120 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard season.

Trending Downward 

Diontae Johnson, WR, Baltimore Ravens (-54)

Previous rank: 71

Current rank: 126

When a player leaves Carolina for a Super Bowl contender, you'd expect them to be happy. Fantasy managers were ecstatic when the Baltimore Ravens traded for Diontae Johnson on October 29, believing that the Ravens had added another weapon in the passing game for Lamar Jackson.

Fast-forward to December. In four games, Johnson has just a single catch on three targets for six yards. In the Ravens' Week 13 contest, Johnson did not play a single snap.

According to head coach John Harbaugh on Johnson, "At this time, I'm going to have to wait. There are some moving parts there that we're going to have to figure out and explore and see where we're at. It's the best I can do in fairness to everybody."

How did we get here?

March 12: The Panthers made a deal with Pittsburgh to acquire Johnson.

Weeks 3-7: Johnson posts three 19-point fantasy performances in four contests (18.3 per game).

October 29: Panthers trade Johnson to Ravens.

November 7: Johnson catches his lone pass for six yards.

December 1: His fourth game with the team, no snaps.

Diontae Johnson has hardly seen the field since the Ravens traded for him https://t.co/PMa1Q2uHyF pic.twitter.com/HOqqQHxx7h

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 2, 2024

We don't give the Steelers or Mike Tomlin enough credit for their work behind closed doors. Johnson is just one in a long line of Steelers pass-catchers who have fallen from fantasy grace upon their departure. Maybe it's something, or perhaps not. Either way, it's easy to see how Johnson has become devalued as a fantasy asset.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers (-22)

Previous rank: 34

Current rank: 57

"You either die a hero or you live long enough to see yourself become the villain."

I'm not saying that is what is happening with Christian McCaffrey, but Father Time is undefeated, and the injuries are starting to add up. Back in Week 2, McCaffrey was placed on injured reserve with bilateral tendonitis in both his Achilles. In Week 10, McCaffrey returned only to suffer a season-ending PCL injury in Week 13.

If McCaffrey is out for the remainder of the 2024 season, it would mean the 49ers back has played in just 56% of his team's regular-season games since the start of the 2020 season.

For running backs, we know that when they hit the wall, they hit it hard. Nearing 29, McCaffrey is close to that age cliff as well. I don't know about you, but I am at the point in life where if I sneeze, there is a good chance I'm about to throw my back out, and I have had NFL linebackers lining me up for 10 seasons.

Kareem Hunt, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (-21)

Previous rank: 132

Current rank: 154

After producing 10 or more fantasy points in six consecutive contests, Hunt has failed to reach double-digit fantasy production in two of the last three. Further complicating matters is the return of Isiah Pacheco in Week 13. In Pacheco's first game back, we saw Hunt's touches go from 21.5 opportunities per game to nine.

Hunt has been more than serviceable since receiving the phone call from his couch. At 29 years of age, time is starting to run out on the Chiefs back, who will be 30 once the 2025 season is underway.

With a healthy Pacheco around, there are unlikely to be any touches available for Hunt, barring an injury. In Week 13, as the Chiefs eased Pacheco back into the lineup, we saw Hunt's snap share drop to 38%. We anticipate it to dip a little more each week.

Hunt's burst isn't there. In 160 carries this season, Hunt has failed to log a single run over 20 yards. Pacheco popped one in his first game back. Pulling some data again from my friends over at Fantasy Points Data Suite, Hunt has seen a league-high 15 carries inside the 5-yard line. However, the Chiefs back has converted only 27% of those into TDs, the eighth-lowest rate among running backs.

Why is Kareem Hunt at the bottom of the league by fantasy points over expectation?

*He's seen a league-high 15 carries inside the five yard-line (those are valuable, worth lots of XFP)

*He's converted only 27% of those into TDs, the 8th-lowest rate among RBs pic.twitter.com/SNsfOPrQaR

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) November 27, 2024

The best piece of advice is to look for that Pacheco manager in your league and offer Hunt as insurance for the fantasy playoffs. Perhaps you could squeeze a late third out of them.

Dynasty Trade Value Chart

Names to Know

Devaughn Vele, WR, Denver Broncos (Unranked)

Previous rank: NA

Current rank: 151

Devaughn Vele has played in only nine contests this season after sitting out four weeks from Week 2 through Week 5. Yet, he has mostly flown under the radar and averaged 8.5 fantasy points per game while producing double-digit fantasy production in five of those nine contests.

Those unfamiliar with Vele, don't worry. Before the start of the NFL season, very few outside of Denver had even heard of the seventh-round draft pick out of Utah. Over his final three seasons at Utah, Vele would produce 1,677 receiving yards in 38 games.

That's not exactly NFL prospect production. However, he did average 16.9, 12.6, and 13.8 yards per reception in each of those seasons, which is not bad for a redshirted walk-on.

Vele is an intriguing fantasy option, but he is also a 26-year-old rookie, which limits the fantasy ceiling for dynasty managers. If you are comfortable playing in those shorter 2-3 year windows and have a deeper bench, then rostering Vele may be worth the investment.

At 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, Vele ran a 4.40 40 at the NFL Combine. He looks like an "X" receiver, but he's been used more as a slot, finding success in the intermediate and middle parts of the field.

Maximize Return

Jonnu Smith, TE, Miami Dolphins (+83)

Previous rank: 253

Current rank: 171

Before the start of the 2024 season, nobody, and I mean nobody, had Jonnu Smith as a top-12 tight end in fantasy, let alone a top-5 option. Heading into Week 14, Smith has produced 20 or more fantasy points in four of his last seven contests, and since Week 7, his 118.8 fantasy points lead all tight ends.

Jonnu Smith since week 5:

49 catches
570 yards
4 TD’s

He has been a phenomenal addition to this offense. pic.twitter.com/wIr1RXoTn7

— FinsCentral (@finscentral) December 2, 2024

I can't explain it, but since the Dolphins returned from their bye week, this offense has run through De'Von Achane and Smith. Sell your league mates on the fact that since that return from the bye week, Smith's target share is 21.5%, his first-read target share has been 26.3%, and his 2.76 yards per route run is third among all pass-catchers. Who knew Arthur Smith was right to go with Smith over Kyle Pitts in Atlanta?

If you are not in a position to win this season and already have a good idea by now, it's time to sell high on the Dolphins tight end. Smith will be turning 30 at the start of the 2025 season, and he has already set career highs in receptions (58), targets (74), and receiving yards (648).

This production has come at the expense of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and I expect a correction to that production before 2025 kicks off.

It's unlikely that Smith's value will ever be higher than it is now. Look to trade him away for some additional draft capital. I would target a mid-second-round pick or a player like Christian Kirk, who is injured but still has some good years ahead.

.@RealDealFantasy said he would dye his hair blond if Jonnu Smith finished as a top 5 TE and he is currently the TE5 👀 pic.twitter.com/s410Fv8DAl

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 29, 2024

Buy the Dip

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons (-12)

Previous rank: 178

Current rank: 191

Seeing Michael Penix Jr. take a slight dip from November to December was odd. Then again, in the Falcons' four games from October 27 through November 17, Kirk Cousins completed 70% of his passes for 977 yards, throwing seven touchdowns.

I suspect things change heading into January after Cousins threw four interceptions to kick off December and has zero touchdowns and six interceptions over his last three contests.

Atlanta is 6-6 after that Week 14 loss to the Chargers, but remains in the hunt not only for a Wild Card spot but also for the NFC South crown, as it shares an identical record with Tampa Bay. As long as the Falcons are in the hunt, Cousins will likely remain the man under center. However, should he falter again, $180 million may not be enough to hold off the rookie, as fans are growing impatient.

Now is the time to strike for those looking to buy the dip. If a team with playoff aspirations is looking for a piece to put them over the top, perhaps they view Penix as expendable.

I love what The Athletic's Jim Trotter wrote, "The race against the chronological clock is difficult for everyone, but even more so for an aging quarterback who missed half of last season because of a torn Achilles tendon."

We've seen running backs come back and perform well for a short period, post Achilles, then watch as the bottom fell out. That may be what we are witnessing with Cousins and Aaron Rodgers.

Right now, the price to acquire Penix is a late first or early second in superflex leagues. If you aren't about sacrificing your draft capital, you could capitalize on the current values of Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, or Matthew Stafford. Don't have a quarterback to trade away? How about offering Jameson Williams, Khalil Shakir, Trey Benson, or even Rhamondre Stevenson in a deal?

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