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Daily fantasy NASCAR DFS projections and lineup picks for DraftKings for the America 250 Florida Duel #2 at Daytona International Speedway. Who are the favorite picks in the race? Jordan McAbee's exclusive breakdown.
We get more on-track action on Thursday night, as the two Duel races are set to take place at Daytona International Speedway.
The Daytona 500 is unique in that the starting lineup isn't set by traditional qualifying methods. Instead, the front row was set on Wednesday night, and now the rest of the field will be set using the results of these two Duels.
The main GPP for this Duel race is a $50K total prize pool with $10K going to first place. You can join the private RotoBaller DraftKings contest for this race by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
All other NASCAR Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Be sure to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion.
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This Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order and my DraftKings Projections and Picks articles are typically reserved for Premium RotoBaller subscribers, but we have decided to make these FREE for the two Duel races this week.
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The final big GPP for NASCAR this season is a $125K total prize pool with $25K going to first place. You can join the private RotoBaller DraftKings contest for this race by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
All other NASCAR Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Be sure to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion.
Lineup Strategy and Notes for Duel #2
While the first Duel is Ford-heavy, this one is Toyota-heavy. When you look at the starting lineup, we have four Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas starting inside the top six along with two Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets. Here are a few notes and observations to take into consideration when building lineups for this second Duel race:
- In last year's Duel #2 race, we saw the Fords work together and take six of the top eight finishing spots. Don't be surprised if Toyota does the same thing and try and work together all race. This isn't me advocating to play the high qualifiers like Briscoe/Hamlin, but probability-wise, we're likely to have some high-finishing Toyotas in this race.
- Justin Allgaier is an "Open" car that is locked into the Daytona 500 on speed. He has nothing to race for on Thursday night, and could drop to the back and protect his car.
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. is likely to be a high-owned DFS play on Thursday night due to his 19th-place starting spot. However, let's look at his recent Duel finishes: 16th, 20th, and 16th. This is a driver that typically has no problem hanging out in the back and just focusing on Sunday.
Core Driver Picks for Duel #2
Tyler Reddick ($9.5K) - I have my hesitancy with slamming in Ricky Stenhouse on Thursday night, but I'm much less worried about Tyler Reddick, who will start from 20th. Reddick will have a ton of Toyota help to lean on as well in the race, as discussed earlier.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr ($8.7K) - Although I do like the strategy of going underweight on him in this Duel race, I'd be doing a disservice if I didn't write up Stenhouse as a core pick on this slate. He starts back in 19th and is one of the best superspeedway racers in the field. Ricky could easily make the optimal lineup on Thursday night.
Tournament / Leverage Driver Picks for Duel #2
Erik Jones ($7.3K) - Jones tends to show up in these Duel races, as he finished second in last year's race, fifth in his 2024 Duel, and sixth in his 2022 Duel. Again, this field is heavy with Toyotas, and Erik Jones is driving one as well. He'll start from 12th-place, so there's some room for Place Differential.
Riley Herbst ($5.0K) - When you look at the starting lineup, it's easy to see how Riley Herbst could be overlooked on this slate. We've got superspeedway favorites in Todd Gilliland, Anthony Alfredo, Ty Dillon, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Tyler Reddick all starting behind Herbst, but Riley still has major Place Differential upside by starting 15th. Plus, he's in a Toyota. Herbst is likely to be quite low-owned on this Slate, so I think there is definitely opportunity to get leverage here with a capable driver in good equipment.
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DraftKings Driver Projections for Duel #2
You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember, the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections.
| Driver | DK Salary | Proj DK Pts | Proj Own | Start Pos | Avg Proj Finish | $ Per FPT |
| Erik Jones | $7,300 | 44.50 | 26.47% | 12 | 06.8 | $164 |
| Austin Cindric | $8,200 | 44.31 | 39.35% | 8 | 05.0 | $185 |
| Tyler Reddick | $9,500 | 43.88 | 59.41% | 20 | 10.8 | $216 |
| Todd Gilliland | $6,900 | 41.20 | 26.94% | 16 | 09.8 | $167 |
| Kyle Larson | $9,900 | 41.18 | 33.67% | 3 | 04.4 | $240 |
| Josh Berry | $7,100 | 40.91 | 21.34% | 13 | 08.8 | $174 |
| Carson Hocevar | $8,500 | 39.24 | 31.44% | 14 | 10.4 | $217 |
| Christopher Bell | $7,700 | 39.20 | 24.73% | 6 | 06.2 | $196 |
| Michael McDowell | $6,300 | 38.69 | 20.34% | 10 | 08.6 | $163 |
| Anthony Alfredo | $6,700 | 34.31 | 35.45% | 17 | 13.2 | $195 |
| Connor Zilisch | $7,500 | 33.25 | 23.77% | 11 | 10.8 | $226 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr | $8,700 | 32.19 | 55.63% | 19 | 15.6 | $270 |
| Chase Elliott | $9,000 | 31.43 | 23.08% | 4 | 08.8 | $286 |
| BJ McLeod | $5,700 | 31.17 | 22.29% | 21 | 17.0 | $183 |
| Chase Briscoe | $7,900 | 30.82 | 18.05% | 1 | 08.2 | $256 |
| Denny Hamlin | $9,700 | 30.44 | 20.90% | 2 | 09.2 | $319 |
| JJ Yeley | $5,500 | 29.86 | 21.21% | 22 | 17.6 | $184 |
| Zane Smith | $5,300 | 29.48 | 11.28% | 9 | 12.0 | $180 |
| Ty Gibbs | $6,500 | 28.76 | 10.60% | 5 | 10.4 | $226 |
| Ty Dillon | $5,900 | 28.43 | 40.43% | 18 | 16.6 | $208 |
| Riley Herbst | $5,000 | 25.52 | 18.45% | 15 | 16.6 | $196 |
| Justin Allgaier | $6,100 | 23.75 | 15.17% | 7 | 13.8 | $257 |
Don't forget to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion this NASCAR season!
