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Daily fantasy NASCAR DFS projections and lineup picks for DraftKings for the America 250 Florida Duel #1 at Daytona International Speedway. Who are the favorite picks in the race? Jordan McAbee's exclusive breakdown.
We're getting closer and closer to The Great American Race (the Daytona 500) on Sunday, but before we can get to this year's season-opener, we need to set the starting lineup.
The Daytona 500 is unique in that the starting lineup is set by a pair of Duel races on Thursday night. We had qualifying on Wednesday evening, which set the starting lineup for these Duels, and now we have the two races to set the final starting lineup for Sunday.
The main GPP for this Duel race is a $50K total prize pool with $10K going to first place. You can join the private RotoBaller DraftKings contest for this race by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
All other NASCAR Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Be sure to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion.
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This Algorithm Predicted Finishing Order and my DraftKings Projections and Picks articles are typically reserved for Premium RotoBaller subscribers, but we have decided to make these FREE for the two Duel races this week.
Be sure to take advantage of 35% off premium NASCAR subscriptions before the Daytona 500 by using code JORDAN26 when signing up! You can click here to join in on the winning!
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— Jordan McAbee (@FanRacingOnline) January 31, 2026
The final big GPP for NASCAR this season is a $125K total prize pool with $25K going to first place. You can join the private RotoBaller DraftKings contest for this race by clicking here! Limited spots are available.
All other NASCAR Premium Tools can be accessed on the premium dashboard. Be sure to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion.
Lineup Strategy and Notes for Duel #1
We have a very Ford-heavy Duel here, particularly with the four Roush-Fenway Keselowski Racing Fords along with two of the Penske teammates (Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano). Here are a few notes and observations to take into consideration when building lineups for this first Duel race:
- Brad Keselowski, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece should be getting the fourth RFK car (Corey Lajoie in the No. 99 Ford) into the race. I expect them to work together and help Lajoie.
- Corey Heim is an "Open" car that is locked into the race on speed. He has nothing to race for on Thursday night, and is a candidate to drop out and protect his car.
- Kyle Busch, who is on the pole for Sunday's Daytona 500, is also a candidate that could drop to the back and protect his car.
- Jimmie Johnson is guaranteed a spot in this weekend's Great American Race, so he also has nothing to race for on Thursday night. Same boat as Heim and Busch.
- I wouldn't be surprised if the Toyotas struggled in this Duel. As mentioned before, Heim has nothing to race for. That leaves John Hunter Nemechek and Bubba Wallace. Could they follow suit and just hang out at the back of the pack? I wouldn't be surprised.
Core Driver Picks for Duel #1
Noah Gragson ($7.4K) - During qualifying on Wednesday night, Gragson had a bit of a brain fart and forgot about the rule change this year in regards to driving sticking their hand out the window during qualifying. His time was disallowed and he will have to start dead last in this Duel. He's a chalk play for sure.
Silly mistake on my part. Forgot about the rule change. Excited for the duel tomorrow.
— Noah Gragson (@NoahGragson) February 12, 2026
Chandler Smith ($6.4K) - One of the next-safest DFS picks behind Noah Gragson in this Duel will be Chandler Smith, who will start from 21st on Thursday night. He's in the No. 36 Ford for Front Row Motorsports, and you know Chandler will be racing his ass off to try and make the show. That's the type of driver you want to build around with DFS lineups in this race: high upside and a reason to give 100% effort.
Tournament / Leverage Driver Picks for Duel #1
Chris Buescher ($8.3K) - I'm always a big fan of Chris Buescher when it comes to the Duels at Daytona. Since joining RFK, Buescher has finished first, fourth, 10th, and third in his respective Duel race. He starts fifth on Thursday night, but that should keep his ownership down far enough to take a risk in tournaments.
Corey Lajoie ($6.8K) - As mentioned before, Corey Lajoie's main focus will be on getting a spot in this year's Daytona 500. He will have a ton of help with the three other RFK cars, and we know Lajoie is a legitimate contender at superspeedways. His eighth-place starting spot should scare some DFS players away from picking him in tournaments.
Stacking Dennys Podcast with Jordan and RotoDoc
DraftKings Driver Projections for Duel #1
You can click here to download the .csv file of these projections. Remember, the projections automatically loaded into the optimizer are NOT my projections.
| Driver | DK Salary | Proj DK Pts | Proj Own | Start Pos | Avg Proj Finish | $ Per FPT |
| William Byron | $10,000 | 46.87 | 42.56% | 12 | 06.2 | $213 |
| Brad Keselowski | $8,600 | 44.49 | 30.10% | 10 | 05.8 | $193 |
| Joey Logano | $8,900 | 44.22 | 28.86% | 6 | 04.6 | $201 |
| Ryan Blaney | $9,800 | 44.07 | 41.52% | 11 | 06.8 | $222 |
| Ross Chastain | $9,300 | 38.46 | 51.42% | 18 | 12.4 | $242 |
| Noah Gragson | $7,400 | 37.90 | 57.34% | 23 | 14.4 | $195 |
| Alex Bowman | $7,800 | 37.69 | 14.88% | 4 | 06.2 | $207 |
| Daniel Suarez | $7,600 | 37.34 | 40.19% | 20 | 13.6 | $204 |
| Bubba Wallace | $9,500 | 36.64 | 49.48% | 16 | 12.0 | $259 |
| Chris Buescher | $8,300 | 36.20 | 18.80% | 5 | 07.0 | $229 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | $6,600 | 35.66 | 24.57% | 19 | 14.0 | $185 |
| Chandler Smith | $6,400 | 34.98 | 25.02% | 21 | 14.8 | $183 |
| John H. Nemechek | $6,000 | 30.86 | 11.71% | 9 | 11.6 | $194 |
| Corey LaJoie | $6,800 | 29.46 | 16.07% | 8 | 11.6 | $231 |
| Casey Mears | $5,600 | 28.29 | 13.94% | 22 | 18.4 | $198 |
| Austin Dillon | $6,200 | 28.11 | 9.04% | 7 | 11.6 | $221 |
| Jimmie Johnson | $5,800 | 27.38 | 22.87% | 15 | 15.6 | $212 |
| AJ Allmendinger | $7,200 | 26.81 | 41.26% | 17 | 17.6 | $269 |
| Kyle Busch | $8,000 | 26.18 | 13.84% | 1 | 10.8 | $306 |
| Cody Ware | $5,000 | 24.26 | 16.04% | 14 | 16.4 | $206 |
| Cole Custer | $5,400 | 23.90 | 9.59% | 13 | 16.4 | $226 |
| Ryan Preece | $7,000 | 19.85 | 8.34% | 2 | 14.0 | $353 |
| Corey Heim | $5,200 | 18.21 | 12.56% | 3 | 14.6 | $286 |
Don't forget to join the Discord (https://discord.gg/kSvdUNxjMY) to join in on the fun and discussion this NASCAR season!
