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Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson is having a problem with drops in 2020. Dom Petrillo determines his fantasy football value for late-season and beyond based on his usage and efficiency.
Diontae Johnson has taken over as the number one receiver in Pittsburgh this season. He has also been benched this season for drops and publicly called out by coach Mike Tomlin.
After watching his eligible targets drop ball after ball in the past two games, Mike Tomlin delivered an ultimatum Tuesday to the #Steelers pass catchers. https://t.co/hFjIEMuAcX
— Tribune-ReviewSports (@TribSports) December 8, 2020
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It is therefore difficult to figure out what to do with him the rest of the season. But for crucial fantasy football playoff matchups, managers will have to make the tough decision of whether to trust him or not.
Dropping Value
Through 12 games played by him this season, Johnson has a league-high 12 drops according to Pro Football Reference. He is the only player in the NFL in double-digits. To put this into focus, Larry Fitzgerald, known to have the best hands of all time, has 29 drops in his 17-year career. That's less than two per season.
So, 12 in one season is clearly terrible. This is not to say he is a terrible player. He can even get better at this. Just look at Davante Adams for an example of someone who has overcome drops to become elite. Some other players among the 2020 leaderboard in drops include Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Alvin Kamara. Receivers who get targeted a ton typically have the most drops.
There have been a number of Hall of Fame-caliber receivers who have had the same issues. Along with the above-mentioned Davante Adams, Randy Moss and even Calvin Johnson were known to drop some passes. While he is not on their level, he is still too good to take off the field. This means he will remain a highly targeted player moving forward. This is not someone you want to sit and certainly do not want to drop.
While drops alone should be worrisome, the threat of losing playing time could be. Is there time in 2020 to fix it for him and for you his fantasy manager? Or is he best left on the bench?
In 12 games, Johnson has 69 receptions on 113 targets for the Steelers. 5.75 receptions and 9.5 targets per game are both wonderful numbers for a WR 1. On those 69 receptions, he also has five TD which has helped the Steelers to their 11-2 record.
Mike Tomlin has come out and stated that Johnson needs to stop dropping the ball. If he and others continue to perform the way they have, he will find others to replace them in the lineup. After some early drops on Sunday, Tomlin did just that and replaced him with James Washington. Despite the move, Johnson still had seven Targets and four receptions.
Mike Tomlin is giving Diontae Johnson a second? third? chance, putting the speedy wide receiver with drop problems back on the field. For all of his problems holding on to the ball, he can give this offense a much-needed spark. He has 4 targets, 2 drops and 1 reception for 12 yds
— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) December 14, 2020
This comes just one week after having eight receptions on 12 targets the week prior when all the problems seemed to start for Tomlin. When he is on the field, Big Ben loves to target him. This will not change. He is the future of the receiver’s room in Pittsburgh and a few drops are not going to change this.
Verdict
Week 15 brings a juicy game against a reeling Cincinnati Bengals team who has been left for dead since the season-ending injury to their star rookie QB Joe Burrow. The team has been ravaged by injury and Geno Atkins was just placed on the reserved list meaning he is out. In a week where Pittsburgh wants to get back on track to avoid a third straight loss, look for Johnson to have a major part in the offense Monday. 100 yards and a TD are likely in store. This is not production I want to miss out on. Especially in my playoff matchup.
2021 will be different. Juju Smith-Shuster is most likely gone via free agency, so it will be up to Johnson and Chase Claypool to support the passing attack. For the last three weeks of this year, it is more important he gets his head on straight and stops dropping the passes coming from Ben Roethlisberger.
While it is difficult to trust Diontae Johnson after the way he has been playing, you must. He is too talented to continue the bad games and Cincinnati is too bad to let him continue in his mediocre ways. So, start him up this week as a top 24 play and relax as he helps you get to a hopeful championship.
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