RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Justin Thomas (-8) defeated Luke List on the first playoff hole to capture The Honda Classic. Tiger Woods had a very good week finishing even for the tournament and just outside the top 10, T-12.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the World Golf Championship - Mexico Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
WGC-Mexico Championship
This championship used to be played at Trump National Doral Miami, but the PGA Tour moved it to Mexico City last year. Club de Golf Chapultepec will play host for the second time. This course is a par 71, 7,780 feet above sea level (one mile equals 5,280 feet if you remember from grade school). That's higher in altitude, than the Denver Broncos' stadium. This course is designed for the long hitters who can hit it accurately. It's fitting that Dustin Johnson won last year. Jon Rahm was third, Justin Thomas and Thomas Pieters fifth, and Rory McIlroy was seventh. Those guys can all crush the ball.
With this being a World Golf Championship, there will be NO cut. Only 65 of the world's best will compete in Mexico.
This course is tough to get a gage on because last year was the first time the tournament was played there. There are four par-3's, 11 par-4's, and three par-5's. Two of those three par 5's are at least 600 yards in length. The greens are Poa surfaces. If you want an in-depth preview of the course, click here.
My custom stat model will be focusing on a whopping seven stats; driving distance (30%), strokes gained: approach (20%), SG: ball striking (15%), scrambling (15%), SG: Par 5, (10%), birdies (10%), and fairways gained (10%).
Last year, the top-six in SG: Par 5 scoring all finished within the top seven. Players in the top-20 had an average SG: approach of + 0.93, and a bad striking average of +1.25. Players in the top-five were +1.46 in SG: approach and +1.87 in ball striking. Players hit greens in regulation at a smaller percentage than tour average, which means scrambling is more important. I'll also look at birdies because it's a no-cut event so players will have four rounds to get points.
While bombers do well on this course, it is also important to keep it in the fairway. I've read some quotes from some players and many said the trees are so thick, that it stopped some players form going driver-heavy. Rickiw Fowler said, "The big thing here is getting the ball in play. I think that’s kind of the strategy going forward, just trying to make it as simple as possible because there are a few trees and it’s pretty dense. It’s not like you can play many shots from the trees here."
My custom stat model will focus on the last 24 rounds played with an emphasis on average/difficult scoring, and Poa greens.
With the results, I keyed on the following players.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson ($11,900), Justin Thomas ($11,500), Jon Rahm ($10,600), Jordan Spieth ($10,500) and Tommy Fleetwood ($10,000).
Johnson is the defending champion. He's number one in my rankings, but his price is enormous. He took last week off after a T-16 at the Genesis. If you can afford him, you have to get him in your lineup.
Thomas won last week in Florida. He was T-5 last year. Thomas is ninth in my rankings, but you need to pass on one of these pricey players so I'd pass on him. However, if you need to save $400, he's a safe choice.
Rahm is third in my rankings. He was T-3 last year and has the complete game to dominate on this course. He's been less than 20% owned at the past two tournaments which is shocking. DJ has been more than 40% owned the past two tournaments so with Rahm, you'll get a great player at great ownership.
Spieth is a very interesting play this week. He was T-12 last year and is off back-to-back top 20's. He didn't play last week in Florida. His SG: App and birdies have gone up the past two tournaments. If he's on his game, then look out.
Fleetwood was fourth at The Honda Classic last week and runner-up last year at this event. He was over 30% owned last week. Something just doesn't feel right with him this week.
If you're playing multiple lineups, I'd build them around Johnson, Rahm, and Spieth.
Middle-Priced Players
Bubba Watson ($8,900) - He's second in my rankings. He took last week off after winning the Genesis Open two weeks ago. Watson has been less than 10% owned in each of his four tournaments in 2018. His numbers have continued to improve each tournament in 2018. We all know he can smoke the ball and no shot is impossible for him. Since he's such a streaky player, I'll overlook his T-38 last year in Mexico.
Alex Noren ($8,800) - This is Noren's first year on the PGA Tour and it's like he's been playing in the States for 10. His four tournaments in 2018; T-2, T-21, T-16, and T-2 last week. He's 31st in my rankings, but he's been playing such splendid all-around golf that recent form takes precedence over numbers in this instance.
Paul Casey ($8,400) - He was T-16 last year in Mexico. His last time out was at the Genesis where he was T-49, but he still gained 2.5 birdies. It's always good to pick a player who, even if they don't contend, make up some of the points with birdies. Plus, CBS Sportsline is targeting him.
Thomas Pieters ($8,300) - His game is great for this course and it makes sense why he finished T-5 last year. He has a powerful swing and can destroy the ball. He gained an average of 9.4 yards on drives last week while finishing T-13.
Ross Fisher ($8,200) - Another European player. He has not played in a month. There's not much to go off by with him, except to say he was T-3 last year where he hovered near the top of the leaderboard all week.
Xander Schauffele ($7,800) - After missing the cut at the Farmers, he rebounded with a T-17 at Phoenix and T-9 last week in Florida. This will be his third WGC event, and first time playing this course. He's a West Coast kid so will have no problem putting on the Poa surfaces. He also showed last year he didn't shy away from the spotlight after a T-5 at the U.S. Open and T-20 at the British Open.
Gary Woodland ($7,600) - After winning the Phoenix Open he then missed the cut at the AT&T Pro-Am and T-49 at the Honda. He was T-38 last year at this event.
Brendan Steele ($7,500) - He hasn't played in two of the past three weeks. His ownership has been really high lately, but I expect that to drop drastically after a T-49 showing two weeks ago at the Genesis.
Low-Priced Players
Bernd Wiesberger ($7,100) - He burned me last week, but I'll give it another go. He shot a 75 and 81 to go 16-over through two rounds. I'll take a GPP flier on him where he will be less than 5% owned.
Abraham Ancer ($6,700) - The only reason I'm picking him is because this is home turf. He's Mexican so perhaps he'll have an advantage.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
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