RADIO
Contact rate risers and fallers for Week 5 based on RotoBaller's premium tool. Ben Rolfe identifies offensive players who have started the season either strongly or poorly and discusses whether it is time for any action.
Welcome to Contact Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 4! Our premium tools allow us to get out ahead of trends in player performance, including contact rate. Every Wednesday, we'll be looking at some players that have seen an increase in contact rate and some that have seen it decline.
Contact rate can foretell a player's batting average and general hitting statistics, and any drastic change could signal a shift in performance. Contact rate shifts often act as a precursor to hot streaks and slumps.
Here is a breakdown of some of the biggest fantasy relevant risers and fallers in contact rate over the last seven days.
Contact Rate Risers
Mitch Moreland (1B, BOS)
91% contact rate last seven days (+14%)
Moreland's use in fantasy leagues is always going to be extremely up and down dependent on which pitchers are on the mound. Unsurprisingly, following a week in which the Red Sox have seen six straight right-handed starting pitchers, Moreland's contact rate is surging. However, strangely Moreland has actually had a terrible week in terms of output. In the last seven days, he has just one hit, which just so happens to be a home run. On the positive side, he has struck out just once in that period, meaning there has been some element of bad luck to the .087 batting average we have seen. The contact rate numbers would suggest that Moreland could be set to have a strong patch over the next week or so.
Widening this out to season-long numbers and there is an interesting trend developing. Moreland is making contact with pitches outside the zone at nearly a 10% higher rate than we have seen at any other point in his Red Sox career. Conversely, he is making nearly 10% less contact on pitches inside the zone. Those numbers make for interesting reading, as Moreland is actually making contact at a similar rate overall to the rest of his career.
Expect to see those numbers swing back towards the career norms over the coming weeks and months. However, if teams have noticed Moreland struggling to make contact in the zone then he could be due to see more pitches there. If he then starts hitting better within the zone then we could see Moreland have a very successful period while those numbers even out. In deeper leagues, Moreland makes for an interesting buy, especially if you can get him for minimal cost.
Brandon Nimmo (OF, NYM)
71% contact rate last seven days (+13%)
I would be extremely worried if we were not seeing some improvement from Nimmo. The young left-handed hitter started the season extremely badly, hitting .233 in March and April. However, over the last week things have begun to improve. In the last seven days, Nimmo has a .314 batting average, with a .366 wOBA and a 133 wRC+. Incredibly Nimmo has increased his contact rate by 13% in the last week and is actually still below his career rate. However, all of the signs point to Nimmo starting to break out of his slump in the last week or so.
The reason behind Nimmo's slump has been a general issue putting bat on ball. He is striking out 35% of the time and has contact rates both inside and outside the zone below his career averages. Interesting when he has made contact the quality of contact has been somewhat better than we saw last season.
His hard-hit rate is still right around the same but his soft contact has dropped to 11% and we have seen his medium contact jump over 50%. These numbers validate the feeling that with the contact rate starting to come around Nimmo could be due to start rewarding fantasy owners who have remained patient with the young Met.
Eric Thames (1B/OF, MIL)
73% contact rate last seven days (+13%)
Stop me if you have heard this before, Eric Thames is raking in April. Over the course of his career Thames has hit .299 and 25 career home runs in March and April, the same number of home runs as he has hit in his entire career in the second half of the season. This time he had to wait for the Brewers to give up on Jesus Aguilar but he has rewarded anyone who took the gamble on the waiver wire.
The most noticeable difference about this year compared to last is that he is being more disciplined outside the zone. In 2017, when he took the league by storm he had a O-Swing% of just 27.6%. That rose to 32.1% in 2018 and with it his O-Contact% plummeted from over 50% to just 45%. This season his O-Swing% has decreased back to 25.3%, meaning that his pretty ugly 38.9 O-Contact% is not as backbreaking as it may be if he was swinging more often. The O-Swing% numbers are promising but we have seen this script before from Thames. He starts hot and then struggles to maintain the pace. If you have a buyer you should be selling now while the iron is hot.
N.B. A name I wanted to point out is Adalberto Mondesi who was on the fallers part of this list last week. Well guess what? This week he is a riser, with an 84% contact rate, a whopping 36% higher than it was last week. See I told you he would drive you nuts.
Contact Rate Fallers
Josh Bell (1B, PIT)
54% contact rate last seven days (-19%)
If you are a Josh Bell owner reading this you just gasped out loud and likely wanted to shout, "leave my Joshy alone!". If you drafted Bell in this offseason then you have likely been pleased with the results so far, as he has hit six home runs with a .286 batting average. The good news doesn't stop there as Bell has career highs in slugging percentage and wOBA so far in 2019. In fact, you probably are now looking at Bells stats since last Wednesday and you are even more confused, as Bell has two home runs and a .292 batting average. However, the contact rate stats suggest there could be some trouble around the corner.
In the last week, Bell has struck out 10 times, after striking out 17 times in the four weeks of baseball that came before that. That run of strikeouts has taken Bell up to a career-high 24% strikeout rate for the season, and just hints that if the bat cools down there could be trouble. Overall this season, Bell's Contact% is slightly down on his career, but his strong start has been driven by a career-high hard-hit rate of 39.7%. That is a hard hit rate over 5% above anything he has produced before in the major leagues.
On one hand it is promising but on the other hand, if the contact quality does dip over the coming weeks then the slightly lower contact rate combined with the elevated strikeout rate could spell a cold stretch around the corner. When you drafted Bell you likely only dreamed of a start like this, well now might be the time to cash in on that dream, because Bell is unlikely to suddenly become a hitter who hits 30 or more home runs, and his value will likely never be higher than it is right now.
Wil Myers (3B/OF, SD)
44% contact rate last seven days (-17%)
This story about Myers is going to be eerily similar to the Thames story above. Myers has raced out of the gate this season with five home runs in the first month and a bit of the season. Unfortunately, the batting average (.248) has not been quite as strong. However, as I said Myers feels very much the same as Thames, as the first month of the season is generally his most successful throughout his career. In no other month of the year has Myers hit more career home runs or hit for a higher batting average. Let's hope that isn't the case this season!
The contact rate over the last week is a concern and it is actually an extension of a mixed start. The last week, which has seen Myers register just one hit and get on base just twice, has helped pull his overall contact% lower than we have seen before in his career. His career contact rate sits around 76% but this season that is below 70%. The last week has dragged that overall number below 70%, but even prior to that he was only sitting just above at 71%.
Given that his Swing% both in and out of the zone is around his career average you would expect there should be some regression in the Contact% for both categories, which should hopefully see Myers keep that batting average afloat around the .250 mark. However, another thing to keep in consideration is that Myers hard hit rate is over 50% and his HR/FB rate is over 20%, both above his career average.
If we treat those numbers with the same regression expectation as the contact rate then Myers power is also likely to slow down from the rate we saw in the first month. If you can dazzle another owner with his five home runs and two stolen bases then now might be a good time to sell on the ever frustrating Myers.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B/DH, SEA)
61% contact rate last seven days (-15%)
Oh Edwin what are we going to do with you? The Seattle slugger has got off to a monster start in terms of hitting the ball out of the park, with eight home runs in his first 125 PAs. However, the batting average is worryingly low, .238, and continues a trend which has seen him steadily declining over the last five years. Incredibly his fast start comes despite registering his lowest hard hit rate in the last eight years (33%). That would naturally suggest that his career high 23% HR/FB rate is unsustainable over the coming weeks and months and we are likely to see a power regressions. Additionally, that low hard hit rate may also underline the struggles in terms of batting average, as his BABIP is the lowest of his career.
All of the above comes despite solid contact rate numbers so far this season, and O-Swing% that matches anything we have seen in his career. His eye and judgment still make him a quality option for OBP leagues, where he has a .376 number, which is close to matching the best we have seen in his career. However, in leagues where batting average is counted then Encarnacion could be a tough call.
If the power regresses, which is likely based on the hard hit numbers, then he is going to become a major hindrance. However, right now you could look to sell Encarnacion to a power-needy team, who will be willing to brush aside his batting average for those shiny juicy home runs. Really it is not much of a call at all in those leagues, in batting average leagues you try to sell, in OBP leagues you have more scope to stick with him.
Contact Rate Risers and Fallers - Premium Tool
Identifying top batting average surgers for each week can help you spot the best pickups before your competition. RotoBaller's Premium Contact Rate Risers and Fallers tool has you covered every day. As thoughtful fantasy baseball players, we won't lead you astray. Here is a small sample:
This type of data is available as part of our Premium MLB Subscription and launched on April 22nd for the 2019 season. Don't settle for basic stats and surface-level advice from other sites. RotoBaller brings you advanced statistics and professional analysis that you need to win your fantasy leagues and DFS games because we're ballers just like you. We are your secret weapon!
