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Mike's college football betting picks against the spread from Saturday, December 27, Monday, December 29, and Tuesday, December 30. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
We ran into a rash of opt-outs in the second week, and even saw a few that we thought would opt out decide to play. We may have to navigate that slippery slope again.
Bowl season really picks up this week! We have a dozen games taking place from Saturday to Tuesday. We'll have one more ATS article for the rest of the bowls early this week since the lines are still moving on the CFP games, and opt-outs are still coming in for the January bowls.
Keep up with the latest opt-outs here. This source has been one of the most consistent threads that I have seen. If I see anything that comes up that isn't on the list, I'll post it on X.
CFB Betting Picks for 12/27 - 12/30
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
Pittsburgh (-10.5) vs. East Carolina at Annapolis, MD
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
🚨BREAKING: East Carolina QB Katin Houser has decided to opt out of the Military Bowl & enter the transfer portal. Thoughts? ⬇️⬇️⬇️ per Brian Bailey WNCT @bbaileywnct pic.twitter.com/te4mn86pOZ
— The Holton Ahlers Show (@HoltAhlersShow) December 15, 2025
This came as a bit of a surprise once I saw that East Carolina offered Houser $1.4 million to stay. If East Carolina has that kind of money to offer and still can't keep players, our sport is doomed.
So is ECU. Houser and leading receiver Yannick Smith are both opting out of this game. Mike Wright Jr., a journeyman with 491 pass attempts in six seasons at Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Northwestern, and East Carolina, will get the start.
It won't be enough. Desmond Reid likely won't play in this game, but Mason Heintschel will. That's more than enough.
Pick: Pittsburgh -10.5
Penn State vs. Clemson (-3.5) at New York City
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
To all my friends going to @PinstripeBowl Buckle up for a snowy mess! Should be an interesting game! Snow ❄️ 4-8 inches from Friday night to Saturday AM! pic.twitter.com/bBoEpepO54
— Dr Murphy WeightLoss (@TakeWeightOffMD) December 25, 2025
This is giving off vibes of the 2010 Pinstripe Bowl, where Kansas State and Syracuse got involved in a shootout in the cold after the storm. The difference is that the storm is supposed to hit during this game.
That's not the only cloud on this game. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik, in what would be his last game for Clemson after the 2025 season tanked his draft stock, may not play because of a thumb injury.
Penn State RB Kaytron Allen, the school's leader in rushing yards and touchdowns, insists that he is playing, but reports have stated that he will play, but he won't play much. Nicholas Singleton already opted out for Penn State.
The thing about this line is that there is no juice at all on -3.5. Some will give it to you at plus money. Vegas is begging us to throw money on Clemson.
Run games should dominate a snow game. Even if Penn State is without the two backs who carried them to the CFP last year, Penn State's RB room is still better. I expect a closer, and low-scoring game. That really favors Penn State.
Pick: Penn State +3.5
Connecticut vs. Army (-9.5) at Boston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
UConn fans were excited about another trip to the Fenway Bowl, where they turned in a great performance last year. Then Jim Mora Jr. left. Then came the opt-outs. The line opened with UConn favored, but has jumped to this monstrosity.
Easy money, right? We know that Army won't have opt-outs. I don't think so. Senior WR Skyler Bell has contacted all of the players in the portal to follow Mora to give it one more game with him.
UConn Football Bowl Notes
Many of the players in the portal spoke with Skyler Bell. Reportedly, he has convinced a significant amount of them to suit up and play.
Still no word on the QB situation. Nick Evers has yet to enter the portal, so as of now, he is the expected starter
— UConn Wolverine🐾 (@huskyfanE) December 20, 2025
Bell, himself an NFL prospect, could have taken the easy road along with QB Joe Fagnano and prepared for the NFL Draft. He wanted to give it one last ride. Bell convinced star RB Cam Edwards, himself a four-year player at UConn, to play in the bowl.
Several defensive players and offensive linemen have followed suit. This number feels too high now. Thank you, Skyler Bell.
Pick: Connecticut +9.5
(22) Georgia Tech vs. (12) BYU (-3.5) at Orlando
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Haynes King is playing in this game, which should come as no surprise to anyone. He loves playing football, and he loves playing for Georgia Tech.
With King playing, we get one of the better QB matchups in the bowls with King against freshman bowling ball Bear Bachmeier. LJ Martin is undergoing shoulder surgery, but that's the only player opting out of this game.
Forget Notre Dame...we're still going to get a great one in Orlando!
Pick: BYU -3.5
Miami (OH) vs. Fresno State (-5.5) at Tucson, AZ
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I know that the Redhawks were exposed by Western Michigan in the MAC Championship, but Fresno can't run the ball as the Broncos did. Fresno is more of a finesse team, and Miami can handle those.
Pick: Miami (OH) +5.5
(25) North Texas (-5.5) vs. San Diego State at Albuquerque
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Drew Mestemaker is playing in this game, despite entering the portal. We haven't heard directly about Wyatt Young or Caleb Hawkins, but Mestemaker is enough. If either of the other two plays, I'm hammering this!
Pick: North Texas -5.5
(19) Virginia vs. Missouri (-4.5) at Jacksonville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is surprising. Missouri QB Beau Pribula opts out, and the line only dropped 2.5 points. I happen to agree, I'm just a little surprised.
Pick: Missouri -4.5
LSU at (21) Houston (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Hawaii isn't the only team to get a home bowl game this year. A battered and beleaguered LSU will head west on I-10 without three defensive starters, including Harold Perkins Jr. and Mansoor Delane.
Pick: Houston -2.5
Georgia Southern (-7.5) vs. Appalachian State at Birmingham
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
We get a rematch of Deeper Than Hate in a bowl game. This is one rematch I'm in favor of. The first meeting was a two-point game in Boone. The difference in this one is that Appalachian State QB A.J. Swanne has opted out.
That caused a massive jump in the line. JJ Kohl took over the starting QB job in the Oregon State game, but relinquished it before the first meeting with a miserable game against Old Dominion. Kohl gets his chance here.
The Mountaineers were better under Kohl. This still seems high in a rivalry game.
Pick: Appalachian State +7.5
Coastal Carolina vs. Louisiana Tech (-9.5) at Shreveport
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is basically a home game for the Bulldogs against an overmatched team. The peculiar thing is that there is no juice on the La Tech side, but there is if you take it at -9. I'm good for anything under 10, thank you!
Pick: Louisiana Tech -9.5
Tennessee (-2.5) vs. Illinois at Nashville
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Illinois was a massive disappointment in 2025. Tennessee would be if Nico Iamaleava hadn't tried to shake down the Vols and leave for more money. It was still disappointing after Tennessee made the CFP last year, but a win here would go a long way to making this season feel successful.
Joey Aguilar is expected to play, but he'll be without leading receiver Chris Brazzell II. That's not enough to push me to the other side.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5
(16) USC (-6.5) vs. TCU at San Antonio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It's a relatively short trip down I-35 (depending on traffic) for TCU fans, but QB Josh Hoover won't be making the trip. The strange part is that the line didn't even move.
Part of it is because USC WR Makai Lemon is opting out for draft prep. Another part is that Hoover led the Big 12 with 13 interceptions. Former Vanderbilt QB Ken Seals is expected to lead the Toadies in this one.
I was high on TCU heading into this. Now, I want no part of this.
Pick: TCU +6.5
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