X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Zach Eflin and Manny Machado

What Appears In This Article? hide

The Trade Deadline moves started early, with Manny Machado heading to Hollywood. Elite players are likely to remain elite regardless of where they play, but Machado's fantasy value is probably due for a slight hit.

Brad Hand and Jeurys Familia are the other notable fantasy options on the move, and both figure to see a massive decline in their fantasy value. There is little doubt that Hand is better than Cody Allen, but the fact that he made his Tribe debut in the seventh inning suggests that Allen's job is secure. Familia hasn't pitched for the A's as of this writing, but early word is that Blake Treinen will continue seeing saves.

A deeper dive into either would be pointless, as there's no way to predict what a manager will decide to do. Instead, let's see if Zach Eflin's hot start is sustainable before transitioning to Machado.

Featured Promo: Get ANY MLB Premium Pass for 10% off the regular price with code BALLER. Exclusive access to our Draft Kit, Nick Mariano's #1 accuracy rankings, Ariel Cohen's #1 accuracy ATC projections, customized advice in the Team Sync platform, Live Draft Assistant, 15 in-season lineup tools, customized rankings and much more! Go Premium, Win More!

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Zach Eflin (SP, PHI) - 70% Owned

Eflin was completely off of the fantasy radar coming into 2018, a perfectly logical reaction to an ERA above six the previous year. He's back with a vengeance though, compiling a 3.15 ERA and 3.77 xFIP over 68 2/3 IP at the MLB level this year. He's better than he was, but the peripherals suggest a streamer at best.

The biggest difference between 2018 Eflin and any other vintage is he gets strikeouts now. His K% is up to 24% from a career mark of 16%, thanks in part to a velocity spike (93.7mph last year, 95mph this). A lot of analysts are pointing to the spike and immediately concluding that the Ks are sustainable, but it's not clear that it is. Notably, he wasn't striking out anybody at Triple-A this year (17.7% K% in 20 IP).

The velocity spike is accompanied by a dramatic change in pitch selection. Eflin is trusting his fastball (24.6% last year to 47.6% this) and slider (12.9% to 20.7%) more often than his sinker (43.5% to 12.8%), while also swapping the usage rates of his change (7.6% to 11%) and curve (11.4% to 6.8%). The curve is terrible (8.3% SwStr%, 38.9% Zone%, 20.5% chase), so the switch would be expected to improve Eflin's performance.

Eflin's heater has done a great job limiting opposing batters (.212/.271/.331 vs. .262/.318/.509 career), but its velocity spike is accompanied by a spin rate decline (2,194 RPM vs. 2,211 last year). A high-spin fastball can limit contact quality, but Eflin's is only average. His heater's 60% Zone% is also high enough to question whether he's throwing too many strikes, potentially making him more predictable as the scouting report circulates. MLB hitters can handle 95 with average movement, so it seems unlikely that this fastball will continue to stymie them the way it has.

Eflin's slider is interesting in that it's a strike 49.3% of the time. That means that it's more of a fastball alternative to use in the zone than a traditional secondary offering. It ranks very well if judged as a fastball (14% SwStr%, 39.3% Zone%), making it a great compliment to a true wipeout pitch.

Eflin's changeup wants to be that put away pitch, but its not there yet. Its 17.1% SwStr% and 46.2% Zone% this year are both better than the pitch's career averages (9.5% and 42.4%, respectively), and a decline in spin rate (1,741 RPM vs. 1,897 last year) suggests that it really is less predictable (lower spin is better for changeups). Unfortunately, hitters clobber it when they make contact (.412/.459/.676). The pitch has potential, but there's still work to do.

His sinker has been used as a secondary pitch, with a decline in Zone% (46% vs. 51% career) accompanied by a whiff rate spike (11% vs. 5.3% career). Sinkers are rarely used in this way, contributing to an elevated 40.5% chase rate. However, the results aren't great. Eflin should probably shelve the pitch entirely and focus on his fastball-changeup-slider combination.

Eflin's environment also figures to work against him in the second half. First, the obvious ballpark issue. Citizen's Bank Park dramatically inflates power numbers, posting a FanGraphs HR factor of 111 in 2017. That was the second highest mark in the league. Eflin does nothing to limit airborne contact (37.2% GB% this year), so it's going to hurt when his 7.6% HR/FB regresses toward his 13.4% career rate.

Eflin has also benefited from a .284 BABIP this season, and his career mark of .281 suggests that it should be sustainable. Unfortunately, the atrocious defenders behind him make that a poor bet. Both 1B Carlos Santana and 2B Cesar Hernandez have been slightly below average this year with -2 Defensive Runs Saved each, but the other two infield positions have been worse. Shortstops Scott Kingery and J.P. Crawford have contributed -4 DRS each, combining for a very poor defensive SS. Third sacker Maikel Franco also leaves something to be desired with a glove (-6).

That's not great, but the team's outfield is worse. Rhys Hoskins has no business out there (-13 Outs Above Average) but has to play there every day. Nick Williams has also been well below average (-5 OAA). Odubel Herrera has been a relative bright spot (three OAA), but the team's -13 OAA overall is second to last in the majors.

In conclusion, Eflin has a strikeout spike only partially supported by peripheral stats and a HR/FB and BABIP bound for the bad kind of regression. The Phillies are a solid club, so he should earn his fair share of wins even after coming back to Earth. Just don't make the mistake of treating him as a must-start arm.

Verdict: Chump

 

Manny Machado (3B/SS, LAD) - 99% Owned

What's it like to play in the one percent of Yahoo! formats where Machado is on waivers? Are they novelty leagues where the objective is to lose? At any rate, Machado has been great this year (.316/.390/.571 with 24 HR and seven steals).

The 26-year old seems unlikely to keep up that level of production, but figures to continue being elite. Machado hasn't seen that many strikes being the only competent hitter on his team, posting a Zone% against of 41.1%. His eye isn't fantastic (30% chase rate), but his BB% (11.1%) is still comparable to his K% (12.1%). As a Dodger, he's likely to see more pitches to hit. His BB% should decline slightly as a result.

Machado's .312 BABIP is fairly close to his career mark of .302, but he doesn't have a high-BABIP profile. He doesn't hit many line drives (16.6% LD% this year), though his career rate (18.3%) suggests a few more moving forward. Likewise, he hits a ton of flies (44.9% FB% this year) and more pop-ups than you would like (11% IFFB% this season, 13.8% career).

His 41.6% Pull% on ground balls makes the shift a non-issue (.284 in 75 PAs against it this year), but he's still due for massive regression in his .336 BABIP on ground balls (.274 career). Most fantasy owners think that Machado can run, but he hasn't posted an above average Statcast Sprint Speed since 2015. This year, it's down to a pitiful 25.9 ft./sec. His 91.6mph average exit velocity on ground balls is elite, but it would be surprising if he maintained his current pace.

Machado's 16.4% HR/FB is on par with his career rate of 15.1%, and most of his underlying metrics are positive. He pulls a ton of his flies (30.8%) and always has (28.6% career). He hits the ball hard (95.2mph average airborne exit velocity) and always has (96.5mph last year, 94.9 in 2016). His 12% rate of Brls/BBE is a Statcast Era best, but last year's 10.5% mark suggests that he never exactly struggled in that regard.

To play devil's advocate, he has hit 17 of his 24 HR at Camden Yards. The park significantly inflates right-handed power (105 HR factor last year), while Dodger Stadium doesn't (96 HR factor). Still, hitting second for the Dodgers should produce more R+RBI than hitting third for Baltimore.

Machado has zero games at 3B this year, so he'll probably lose eligibility there in 2019. His -19 DRS at SS suggest that he may not stick there either, creating uncertainty in long-term keeper formats. Yes, I freely admit that I'm splitting hairs here. If you were lucky enough to draft Machado, enjoy the ride!

Verdict: Champ

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Nick Senzel4 hours ago

Expected To Miss 3-4 Weeks
Jon Gray4 hours ago

To Start On Sunday
Justin Steele4 hours ago

Likely To Go On Injured List
Anfernee Simons6 hours ago

Out Against The Heat
Max Kepler6 hours ago

X-Rays Come Back Negative On Max Kepler
Keldon Johnson6 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Justin Steele6 hours ago

Has Left-Hamstring Tightness
Matisse Thybulle7 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Davis Bertans7 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Friday
Jusuf Nurkic7 hours ago

Questionable Against Oklahoma City
Dario Saric7 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Noah Clowney7 hours ago

Probable For Nets Friday
Jonathan Kuminga7 hours ago

Questionable For Warriors Friday
Jerami Grant7 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Friday
Dennis Smith7 hours ago

Jr. Probable For Friday
Lauri Markkanen7 hours ago

Questionable Against Houston
Toumani Camara7 hours ago

Will Not Play Friday
Justin Steele7 hours ago

Exits Thursday's Start
Richaun Holmes7 hours ago

Out Versus Pistons
Cameron Johnson7 hours ago

Out Against Chicago On Friday
Luka Doncic8 hours ago

On The Injury Report For Friday
David Bednar8 hours ago

Still Dealing With Lat Injury
Deandre Ayton8 hours ago

Is Questionable For Friday
Rudy Gobert8 hours ago

Might Miss Friday's Game
Tyus Jones8 hours ago

Unavailable For Friday
Zeke Nnaji8 hours ago

Ruled Out Against Minnesota
Jaden Ivey8 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Rhys McKee8 hours ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Anthony Edwards8 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday Night
Chidi Njokuani8 hours ago

Drops Back Down To Welterweight At UFC Atlantic City
Kyle Nelson8 hours ago

An Underdog Again At UFC Atlantic City
Bill Algeo8 hours ago

Eyes Sixth UFC Win
Joaquin Buckley8 hours ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Vicente Luque8 hours ago

Gets Short-Notice Opponent At UFC Atlantic City
Eduardo Rodriguez9 hours ago

Could Throw Off Mound In 5-7 Days
Max Kepler9 hours ago

Leaves On Opening Day With Injury
Nick Senzel9 hours ago

Suffers Broken Thumb
Jason Foley9 hours ago

Earns The Save For Tigers
Tarik Skubal10 hours ago

Tosses Six Scoreless Innings On Opening Day
Corbin Burnes10 hours ago

Pitches A Gem On Opening Day
Royce Lewis11 hours ago

Exits With Quad Injury
Max Scherzer12 hours ago

Throws Bullpen Session
Clayton Kershaw12 hours ago

"Ahead Of Things" Timetable-Wise
Walker Buehler12 hours ago

Ahead Of Schedule
Corey Seager13 hours ago

Active On Opening Day
Oneil Cruz13 hours ago

Batting Sixth On Opening Day
Bryan Reynolds15 hours ago

In Opening Day Lineup
Jordan Romano16 hours ago

Not Expected To Be Out Long
Aaron Ekblad17 hours ago

Returning To Panthers Lineup Thursday
Nikita Kucherov17 hours ago

Establishes New Career High With 42nd Goal
Shane Pinto18 hours ago

Collects Career-High Four Points
Valeri Nichushkin18 hours ago

Nursing A Lower-Body Injury
Samuel Girard18 hours ago

Battling An Illness
J.K. Dobbins18 hours ago

Visiting With Chargers On Thursday
Oskar Sundqvist18 hours ago

To Miss Rest Of Season With Torn ACL
Ethan Bear18 hours ago

Enters Player Assistance Program
Mark Hubbard1 day ago

Coming Off A Career Performance
Davis Thompson1 day ago

Looking To Pay Off A Stellar Run Of Ball-Striking
Akshay Bhatia1 day ago

Coming Into Houston With Confidence
Thorbjorn Olesen1 day ago

Still Trying To Find Footing On U.S. Soil
Patrick Rodgers1 day ago

Fighting Inconsistencies Heading Into Houston
Malik Nabers2 days ago

Shines At Pro Day
Carolina Panthers2 days ago

Jadeveon Clowney Signing Two-Year Deal With Panthers
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Battling Back Injury Ahead of Houston Open
San Francisco 49ers2 days ago

Talanoa Hufanga Expected To Return At Training Camp
Jayden Daniels2 days ago

Raiders To Meet With Jayden Daniels
Tank Bigsby2 days ago

Jaguars Want Tank Bigsby More Involved
Josh Reynolds2 days ago

Signs Two-Year Deal With Broncos
Doug Ghim2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back At Houston Open
PGA2 days ago

Cameron Davis Seeking Consistency Ahead Of Houston Open
Thomas Detry2 days ago

A Gamble At Houston Open
Ryan Fox2 days ago

Lacks Upside Heading Into Houston Open
Andrew Novak2 days ago

Will Be Chalk At Houston Open
Josh Doan2 days ago

Scores Twice In His NHL Debut
Filip Forsberg2 days ago

Makes History In Big Comeback Win
Jamie Benn2 days ago

Scores In Fifth Consecutive Game
Sidney Crosby2 days ago

Collects Three Points Versus Carolina
Artemi Panarin2 days ago

Continues Scoring Tear With Three Assists
Joey Daccord2 days ago

Shuts Out Ducks
Sahith Theegala2 days ago

Showing Consistency This Season
Wyndham Clark2 days ago

Working Toward Star Status
Scottie Scheffler2 days ago

Heads To Houston At His Best
Sam Ryder2 days ago

Putting The Lights Out Of Late
Joel Dahmen2 days ago

All Systems Go For Joel Dahmen In Houston
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

Ready For Houston Debut
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To Houston
Taylor Moore2 days ago

Continues Made-Cut Streak Heading To Houston
Adam Svensson2 days ago

Hoping For Consistency In Houston
Taylor Montgomery2 days ago

Looks To Bounce Back In Houston
Amon-Ra St. Brown2 days ago

Discussing Extension With Lions
Jared Goff2 days ago

Lions Discussing New Deal
J.K. Dobbins2 days ago

Cleared For Football Activities
Los Angeles Rams2 days ago

Tre'Davious White To Join Rams
PIT2 days ago

Sam Poulin Recalled From AHL
Jack Quinn2 days ago

Could Return Wednesday
Scott Mayfield2 days ago

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
TOR2 days ago

Mitch Marner Skates On His Own Tuesday
Trevor Zegras2 days ago

To Return Tuesday
Justus Annunen2 days ago

Inks Two-Year Extension
Nick Chubb2 days ago

Expected To Start Load Running Next Month
D'Andre Swift3 days ago

Bears View D'Andre Swift As Receiving Weapon
Cordarrelle Patterson3 days ago

Signing With Steelers
Sam Howell3 days ago

Seahawks Believe Sam Howell Can Be A Full-Time Starter
Tennessee Titans3 days ago

L'Jarius Sneed Agrees On Four-Year Contract With Titans
Dak Prescott3 days ago

No Indication A Deal Is Coming For Dak Prescott
Calvin Ridley3 days ago

To Have Big Role In Tennessee
Josh Jacobs3 days ago

To Be Used More In Passing Game
Brandon Saad3 days ago

Gets Another Goal In Monday's Loss
Logan Thompson3 days ago

Stretches Winning Streak To Three Games
Pittsburgh Steelers3 days ago

Cameron Heyward Expected To Be Healthy For Training Camp
Zach Wilson3 days ago

Jets Could End Up Keeping Zach Wilson
Amanda Ribas4 days ago

Takes Decision Loss
Rose Namajunas4 days ago

Snaps Losing Streak
Edmen Shahbazyan4 days ago

Scores Vicious Comeback Knockout
AJ Dobson4 days ago

Knocked Out In The First Round At UFC Vegas 89
Fernando Padilla4 days ago

Gets Back On Track With Submission Win
Luis Pajuelo4 days ago

Submitted In UFC Debut
William Byron4 days ago

Dominates For Victory At COTA
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Grabs Another Solid Finish At COTA
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Texas Native Chris Buescher Finishes Eighth At COTA
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Kyle Busch Confronts Christopher Bell Following A Top-10 Finish At COTA
Justin Haley4 days ago

Disqualified After Strong COTA Run
Martin Truex Jr4 days ago

. Rounds Out Top Ten At COTA
NASCAR4 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Worms Way Up To Sixth At COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen4 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Comes Down to Earth After Mediocre COTA Run
Ross Chastain4 days ago

Ran Well at COTA as Usual Despite Late-Race Fade
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Furious Charge Falls Just Short at COTA
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Scores Strong Finish of Fifth at COTA
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Finishes 16th at COTA After Lackluster Performance
Billy Quarantillo5 days ago

Suffers Submission Loss At UFC Vegas 89
Youssef Zalal5 days ago

Gets Submission Win In Return To The UFC
Cameron Saaiman5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 89
Payton Talbott5 days ago

Scores KO Win At UFC Vegas 89
Justin Tafa5 days ago

Drops To .500 In The UFC
Karl Williams5 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Is One Of The Optimal DFS Options For COTA
Denny Hamlin5 days ago

Should Denny Hamlin Be Rostered For DFS Lineups At COTA?
Kaz Grala5 days ago

Is A Serviceable DFS Play For COTA
Shane Van Gisbergen5 days ago

Will Start 12th In First COTA Cup Start
Todd Gilliland5 days ago

Is A Sneaky DFS Play With Upside For COTA
William Byron5 days ago

Is One Of The Top Favorites To Win At COTA
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Is A Comfortable DFS Play For COTA
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

the Favorite to Win at COTA
Ty Gibbs5 days ago

Looking for First Career Win at COTA
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 

2024 NFL Draft: Bold Predictions and Potential Surprises for Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! With the 2024 NFL Draft fast approaching, we're digging into what might transpire on draft night. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones previews the 2024 NFL Draft and makes some BOLD Predictions about possible surprises and potential landing spots for the first round of the draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller!... Read More


George Pickens - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Early Look At Wide Receivers In 2024 Fantasy Football Drafts

The upcoming NFL Draft is less than a month away. While everyone is excited for the NFL Draft, fantasy players are looking forward to the regular season. While we won’t have meaningful NFL football for months, it’s never too early to prepare for your fantasy football drafts. Last year, the fantasy football world saw multiple... Read More


Spencer Rattler, College Football Transfers

Underrated Rookie Draft Targets - Early 2024 Sleepers for Dynasty Fantasy Football

We are a month out from the NFL Draft, meaning if you are here, you are probably looking for draft content and reading up on prospects. You probably have all of the information you need on stud prospects like Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. That’s not what you’re here for.  Rookie draft season for... Read More


Breece Hall - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part II

The NFL's offseason, including trades and free agency, can strongly impact a player's fantasy football value. This effect can be positive or negative. For this series, we're focusing on fantasy football players who have seen their fantasy value increase. This can occur via a player's direct movement, such as a trade or signing with a... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 1: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

It's finally here: the UFL season is set to kick off with two games on Saturday, March 30 and two games on Sunday, March 31. Saturday's games will be broadcast on Fox Sports while Sunday's matchups will be on ESPN. The most anticipated Week 1 matchup pits the 2023 USFL champion Birmingham Stallions against the... Read More


Jared Goff - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Will the Lions Extend Jared Goff's Contract This Offseason? 2024 NFL Outlook

Jared Goff's career in Los Angeles didn't take off like many expected after his appearance in Super Bowl LIII, and he was traded to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Goff's first season in the Motor City was terrible, but he has completely turned things around over the last two seasons. In 2022, he almost led... Read More


Kyle Pitts - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Free-Agency Winners and the Fantasy Football Impact - Part I

Free agency symbolizes the start of a new NFL season. It's the first opportunity for NFL clubs to start addressing their weaknesses and considerably impacts how the upcoming season plays out. Just as free agency can improve or worsen a team's outlook, a player's fantasy football value is also impacted. Free agency marks the real... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Coach Knows Ball: Malik Nabers 2024 NFL Draft Film Breakdown of LSU WR

Welcome to Coach Knows Ball, an NFL Draft series analyzing the top prospects in the 2024 class. I'm a college football coach with nine years of NCAA experience and have been scouting NFL Draft prospects for over 15 years. This series will give a deep dive into the film of some of the top players... Read More


Avoid These Running Backs in 2024: Fantasy Football Outlook

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The staff is already looking ahead to the 2024 season to help our readers get the jump on their competition. RotoBaller analyst LaQuan Jones discusses five Running Backs that you should AVOID in 2024 fantasy football drafts. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio... Read More


Brock Bowers - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Rookies, Draft Sleepers, NCAA College Football, Prospects

Brock Bowers 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Georgia TE Be Selected?

Georgia tight end Brock Bowers was arguably the top tight end in college football over the past few years. Bowers was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 56 receptions for 882 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slightly slipped in 2022 as defenses started to game plan for the star tight end. Bowers had... Read More


Xavier Worthy 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update – When Will the Texas WR Be Selected?

Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been one of the top pass-catchers in college football over the past few years. The explosive receiver was outstanding his freshman year, totaling 62 receptions for 981 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Unfortunately, his production slipped in 2022. Worthy had 60 receptions for 760 receiving yards and nine touchdowns... Read More


Blake Corum - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, RB, NFL Draft Sleepers

Blake Corum 2024 NFL Draft Stock Update - When Will the Michigan RB Be Selected?

Former Michigan running back Blake Corum is one of the most popular prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft class. The 23-year-old is fresh off a College Football National Championship victory and a 2023 campaign consisting of over 1,300 yards from scrimmage. However, given the devaluation of the running back position and Corum not being an... Read More


Brandon Aiyuk - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News

Will The 49ers Trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Brandon Aiyuk had a career year last season, finishing seventh in the league in receiving yards (1342), second in yards per catch (17.9), and catching seven touchdowns. For his efforts, he was named to the Second-team All-Pro. However, despite many expecting them to do so, the 49ers failed to win Super Bowl LVIII and now... Read More