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Finding Over/Undervalued First Basemen Using Expected Draft Values

Using Expected Draft Values to Find Over and Undervalued Speed Hitters

A couple weeks ago, we introduced our Expected Draft Values and explained how they would help us identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, with pitchers as well. Today, we'll look at four "speed" players as identified by our site projections. Stay tuned over the... Read More

3 years ago

WPC+ Videocast: TGFBI Expert League Analysis

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut review their draft boards and ADP for The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) expert league. They share their strategies, discuss which picks were most surprising, and explain how this information can help you in your home league draft! Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all... Read More

3 years ago

The 10 Commandments of Auction Drafts

As I've said before, there is no one right way to play fantasy baseball, but auction drafts are the closest you can get. As opposed to the more popular but less fun snake draft, in an auction you can acquire the rights to literally any player you want in the game. You don't have to... Read More

3 years ago

Finding Over/Undervalued Power Hitters Using Expected Draft Values

A couple weeks ago, we introduced our Expected Draft Values and explained how they would help us identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, with pitchers as well. Today, we'll look at four "power" hitters, as identified by our site projections. Stay tuned over the... Read More

3 years ago

FOMO and the Hype Machine

We’ve officially entered one of my favorite parts of the fantasy baseball season, the cavalcade of articles on sleepers, upcoming prospects, and breakout players. It’s a time of fresh starts, opportunity, and hope, but I’ve also come to wonder if it isn’t potentially distortive and misleading. Case in point: When Luis Robert signed a long-term contract... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Ballpark Factors

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real-life schedule. Today,... Read More

3 years ago

WPC+ Videocast: Win Your H2H Points League in 2020!

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut reveal the right way to rank players for fantasy baseball points leagues. Don't use the same old rankings and tools as everyone else and don't treat it the same as roto 5x5 leagues! Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch... Read More

3 years ago

When and How Do You Target Sleepers on Draft Day?

A popular buzzword this time of year is "sleeper." Every fantasy baseball writer, podcaster, and radio analyst wants you to know why their sleeper is the one you should be targeting on draft day. Conversely, your league mates hope you've never even heard of their sleeper. As I prepared to write this article, I found... Read More

3 years ago

Elite Starters and Pitching Trends Revisited

Last year I wrote a series [Part 1, Part 2, Part 3] on whether we were properly valuing elite starting pitchers. The basic premise was that we were likely to see fantasy-relevant starters (not openers) throw fewer innings again in 2019. I hypothesized that if there were fewer and fewer starting pitchers providing 200 innings... Read More

3 years ago

Announcing RotoBaller's New Live Draft Tool

Last season at RotoBaller, we released a set of interactive cheat sheets to help fantasy players prepare for their drafts and the upcoming season. This preseason we have updated these cheat sheets and have also added a brand new Live Draft Tool to give you an edge while drafting in real-time!  In addition to the Live... Read More

3 years ago

juan soto fantasy baseball rankings outfield MLB injury news

RotoBaller Friends & Family Industry Mock Draft: What the Experts Were Thinking

The RotoBaller Friends & Family Mock Draft has become an annual tradition where we gather some of the biggest names from the fantasy baseball world and put together a mock draft just as spring training has commenced. Thanks to RT Sports for once again hosting and providing a custom draft site where readers could follow... Read More

3 years ago

H2H Points League Draft Strategy

Points leagues are essentially the rawest version of fantasy baseball. These are not players, these are stat-lines and you want to put up as many points per week as possible. Do not get too attached to underperforming players who have name-value and potential. There is a stark difference in draft strategy when it comes to... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Expected Stats

Statcast is a valuable tool for fantasy analysis, and it can be easy to look at a stat called "Expected Batting Average" and blindly use it as your projection moving forward. Of course, proper use of these metrics is a little bit more nuanced than that. First, a disclaimer: This article is about the "Expected... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher Statcast

Statcast metrics such as Barrels and Brls/BBE are great ways to evaluate a batter's performance, so it is only natural to assume that the metrics would be predictive for pitchers as well. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is evidence... Read More

3 years ago

Finding Combo-Player Values Using Z-Scores and ATC Projections

Towards the end of last season, I asked the question – “Draft Speed or Pound the Power?” Loaded in this seemingly simple query are two contradictory approaches – one for power and one for speed. Power Approach 1: Home run totals are dramatically up in baseball these days. Therefore, there are many power bats available... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but... Read More

3 years ago

How to Attack RP in SV+HLD Leagues

No position has seen as much evolution in recent seasons as the relief pitcher. Gone are the days where starters were expected to go seven innings as most teams have embraced the idea of "super-bullpening" and try to fit as many pitchers that can throw 95+ MPH into their bullpen as they can. Many fantasy... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly-available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data to... Read More

3 years ago

Mock Draft Review: Best Late-Round Targets

Last week, some members of the RotoBaller staff completed a 12-team mock draft for standard 5x5 format. After the draft, we each broke down our strategy and some of our favorite picks, which can be found here. However, I want to take a closer look at one portion of the draft in particular. Since we know that... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some... Read More

3 years ago

Talking Projections and Data-Based Drafting with Ariel Cohen

The fantasy baseball industry is driven by data and many analysts go so far as to develop their own systems for projecting value. Recently, ATC has become more popular as a baseline for those who are seeking a way to rank players for the upcoming season. I recently had a conversation with the man behind... Read More

3 years ago

Introducing EDV - Expected Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball

Last March at RotoBaller, we kicked off a cool fantasy baseball research project, exploring what we're calling Expected Draft Values. This offseason, we’ve refined the approach and our research, and taken things a step forward. We're sharing this concept with the fantasy baseball world now, and hope it's as helpful to you as it's been... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory, pitchers control only Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. Therefore, Ks, walks, and dingers are... Read More

3 years ago

2020 RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Reactions

Over the last couple weeks, RotoBaller's roster has grown with several new faces to join our esteemed veteran corps. We figured it would be nice to roll out the welcome wagon with a February fantasy baseball mock draft, putting six "RotoNewbs" with six RotoVets. It was a snake draft hosted on Fantrax, a traditional 5x5 format with... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Lineup Spot

You may be wondering why there aren't any advanced stats aimed at predicting a player's counting stats like runs and RBI. The answer is simple: modern sabermetrics reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in ascertaining... Read More

3 years ago

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Pull%

We have previously determined that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way to illustrate... Read More

3 years ago

Early Mock Draft Analysis and Reaction: Fantasy Baseball

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut review the draft board from an early 2020 mock draft for fantasy baseball mixed leagues. Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and BlogTalkRadio as well! Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (channel Sirius 210,... Read More

3 years ago

When Should You Draft Your First Starting Pitcher?

Pierre Camus and Nicklaus Gaut decide when you should pull the trigger on your ace in fantasy baseball drafts this year. How early is too early and can you wait to take your first SP? Like and subscribe to the RotoBaller channel on Youtube to get all our latest podcasts and catch us on iTunes and... Read More

3 years ago

alex bregman fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball: Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue... Read More

3 years ago

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ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

Alexander Barabanov4 mins ago

Misses Tuesday's Action
Gabriel Vilardi12 mins ago

Out On Tuesday
Adam Schenk44 mins ago

Wants To Keep Momentum Rolling At Valero
Ryan Moore51 mins ago

Cannot Get Past The Cut Lately
Stephan Jaeger59 mins ago

Could Warm Things Up At Valero
Gary Trent1 hour ago

Jr. Considered Questionable On Tuesday
Si Woo Kim1 hour ago

A Possible Contender At Valero
Taylor Montgomery1 hour ago

Attempting To Find Weekend Consistency
Corey Conners1 hour ago

Trying To Recreate A Little Magic
Jimmy Butler2 hours ago

Will Miss Tuesday's Game Versus Toronto
Jarrett Allen2 hours ago

Downgraded To Out On Tuesday
Jake Oettinger2 hours ago

Minds The Crease Against Chicago
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander2 hours ago

Has Been Ruled Out On Tuesday
Joonas Korpisalo2 hours ago

To Start Against Calgary Tuesday
Ben Simmons2 hours ago

Officially Out For The Remainder Of The Season
Jacob Markstrom2 hours ago

Tending Twine Tuesday
Kevin Durant2 hours ago

Will Return On Wednesday Against Minnesota
Jordan Binnington2 hours ago

Between The Pipes Against Vancouver
Casey DeSmith2 hours ago

Named The Starter Tuesday
Carter Hart2 hours ago

Starting Tuesday Against Montreal
Johan Oviedo3 hours ago

To Start Season In Rotation
Tyler Heineman3 hours ago

Yerry De Los Santos Sent Down
Sandy León3 hours ago

Sandy Leon Re-Signs With Rangers
Jurickson Profar3 hours ago

Has Visa Issues Resolved
Keston Hiura3 hours ago

Outrighted To Triple-A
Andrés Giménez3 hours ago

Guardians, Andres Gimenez Finalizing Long-Term Extension
Lamar Jackson3 hours ago

Texans Not Expected To Pursue Lamar Jackson
Desmond Ridder4 hours ago

Preparing To Be Falcons Starter
Los Angeles Rams4 hours ago

Rams Re-Sign Marquise Copeland
Thomas Detry4 hours ago

Continues To Impress In Rookie Season
Trey Sermon4 hours ago

Eagles Like Trey Sermon's Potential
Kyler Murray4 hours ago

No Timeline For Kyler Murray
Buffalo Bills4 hours ago

Von Miller On Schedule In His Recovery
Buffalo Bills4 hours ago

Sean McDermott To Call Defensive Plays
Aaron Rai4 hours ago

Brings Positive Momentum To Valero Texas Open
Javonte Williams4 hours ago

Making "Great Strides" In Recovery
Akshay Bhatia4 hours ago

Looks To Stay Hot In Texas
Hobie Harris4 hours ago

Makes Opening Day Roster
Tyrone Taylor5 hours ago

Hoping To Return In Mid-May
Adrian Houser5 hours ago

Likely To Open On Injured List
Jeff Hoffman5 hours ago

Released By Twins
Kris Bubic5 hours ago

Named Royals Fifth Starter
Sean Doolittle5 hours ago

Tanner Rainey To Continue Rehabbing
Hunter Gaddis5 hours ago

Expected To Enter Rotation
Josiah Gray5 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Saturday
Devin Duvernay5 hours ago

Expected To Return In 2023
Matthew Stafford6 hours ago

Won't Have Any Limitations
Trey Lance6 hours ago

Has A Chance To Regain Starting Job
Odell Beckham Jr.6 hours ago

Giants A Long Shot For Odell Beckham Jr.
DJ Chark6 hours ago

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Michael Thomas6 hours ago

Making Progress In Recovery
Aaron Rodgers6 hours ago

Trade Could Involve Two Second-Round Picks
Irv Smith Jr.6 hours ago

Agrees To One-Year Deal With Bengals
César Hernández6 hours ago

Tigers Release Cesar Hernandez
James McCann7 hours ago

Likely To Open On Injured List
Mychal Givens7 hours ago

Headed To Injured List
Leody Taveras7 hours ago

Out Another Week
Sergio Romo7 hours ago

Officially Retires With Giants
Cristian Pache7 hours ago

Won't Be On Opening Day Roster
Daniel Hudson7 hours ago

Could Return In Late April
Nicolas Batum8 hours ago

Drops Eight Three-Point Bombs On Chicago
Nikola Jokic8 hours ago

Logs His 29th Triple-Double Of The Year
Tyrese Maxey8 hours ago

Leads Sixers Offense With 29 Points
Immanuel Quickley8 hours ago

Scores Career-High 40 Points
Bennedict Mathurin8 hours ago

Breaks Out Of Slump Monday
Jaden Ivey8 hours ago

Fills The Box Score Monday
Khris Middleton8 hours ago

Has Season-High 34 Points Monday
Lawson Crouse9 hours ago

Delivers Three Assists Monday
Leon Draisaitl9 hours ago

Takes Point Streak To Nine Games
Connor McDavid9 hours ago

Hits 140 Points For The Season
Cale Makar9 hours ago

Helps To Set Up Two Goals
Marc-Andre Fleury9 hours ago

Returns To Form Monday
Matthew Boldy9 hours ago

Scores Another Hat Trick
Trevor Zegras9 hours ago

Suffers A Lower-Body Injury
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander18 hours ago

Questionable Versus Charlotte
Ja Morant18 hours ago

Doubtful Versus Orlando
Terry Rozier19 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday Evening
Gordon Hayward19 hours ago

Unlikely To Play Against OKC
Daniel Gafford19 hours ago

Dealing With A Sore Foot
Kyle Palmieri19 hours ago

Records Three Points Monday
Monte Morris19 hours ago

Uncertain For Tuesday Night
Kyle Kuzma19 hours ago

Remains Out Versus Boston
Gustav Forsling19 hours ago

Scores Twice Despite Florida Loss
Bradley Beal19 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk19 hours ago

Logs Two Points In Ottawa Win
New England Patriots19 hours ago

Jerod Mayo To Be Bill Belichick's Successor?
Buffalo Bills20 hours ago

Taylor Rapp Signs One-Year Deal With Bills
Jarrett Stidham20 hours ago

Broncos Think Jarrett Stidham Has Starting Potential
Gardner Minshew20 hours ago

To Compete For Starting Job
Mac Jones20 hours ago

Not Guaranteed To Start In 2023
Reilly Smith23 hours ago

Ruled Out For At Least Three Games
Erik Gudbranson24 hours ago

Won't Return This Season
Todd Gilliland24 hours ago

Impressive At COTA
Ville Husso24 hours ago

Could Be Done For The Season
Ty Gibbs24 hours ago

Finds His Footing At COTA
Chris Buescher24 hours ago

Continues To Shine On Road Courses
NASCAR1 day ago

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Seventh
Austin Cindric1 day ago

Has A Solid Day
Marlon Vera1 day ago

Has Four-Fight Winning Streak Snapped
Cory Sandhagen1 day ago

Dominates Striking Department
Yana Santos1 day ago

Dominated In Decision Loss
Holly Holm1 day ago

Dominates In Co-Main Event
Austin Lingo1 day ago

Suffers Submission Loss
Nate Landwehr1 day ago

Shines With Second-Round Submission Win
Andrea Lee1 day ago

Suffers Defeat In Close Matchup Saturday
Maycee Barber1 day ago

Takes Close Matchup On Saturday
Chidi Njokuani1 day ago

Takes Close Loss In Split-Decision Showing
Albert Duraev1 day ago

Holds Off Opponent In Tight Split Decision
William Byron1 day ago

Rounds Out Top Five At COTA
Ross Chastain1 day ago

Caught Up To Fourth At COTA On Sunday
Alex Bowman1 day ago

Brings Home Third Place Finish At COTA
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Scrambles Up To Second At Austin
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Dominates And Wins At COTA
Jordan Taylor3 days ago

Making NASCAR Debut At COTA, Will Start 4th
Austin Cindric3 days ago

Excited To Showcase Speed At COTA This Weekend
Austin Dillon3 days ago

Starts 28th At COTA For Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr3 days ago

. In Middle Of Pack For COTA
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Rough Patch In Qualifying On Saturday
Kyle Busch3 days ago

Starts Ninth For COTA Race On Sunday
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Could Be A Wildcard On Sunday
Noah Gragson3 days ago

Finds Way To Qualify 10th At COTA
Brad Keselowski3 days ago

A Few Seconds Off the COTA Pace
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Begins 38th For Sunday's Race At COTA
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Just A Little Off At COTA On Saturday
Cory Sandhagen4 days ago

Can Earn Back-To-Back Victories
Marlon Vera4 days ago

Finds Himself In Main-Event Spotlight Saturday
Yana Santos4 days ago

Looking For Biggest UFC Win Of Her Career
Holly Holm4 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Austin Lingo4 days ago

On Verge Of Three-Fight Winning Streak
Nate Landwehr4 days ago

Hoping For Third Straight Strong Performance
Maycee Barber5 days ago

Can Continue Her Flyweight Ascent
Andrea Lee5 days ago

In Need Of Victory To Keep Momentum Going
MMA5 days ago

Manel Kape On The Hunt For Fourth Straight Victory Saturday
Alex Perez5 days ago

Seeking First Victory Since 2020
Albert Duraev5 days ago

Can Rebound With A Victory
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