The Mysterious Case of Carson Wentz

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz is a fantasy football bust after Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season. Dom Petrillo explains why Wentz may not recover and is a risky QB for fantasy purposes.

It was only a few seasons ago when Carson Wentz was the darling of the NFL. Despite missing the final month of the season, he was in serious consideration for MVP. He got the Philadelphia Eagles in position to win their first Super Bowl. He was also beloved by the city of Philadelphia. How times have changed.

Based on my family group chat, Carson Wentz sucks. At least this is what I heard more times yesterday than the Eagles gave up points. Of course, being in Philadelphia, my family is made up of the quintessential obnoxious Eagles fan. The point still stands.

Wentz is not the same quarterback anymore and just two games into the season, fantasy GMs are starting to worry.

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Worrying About Wentz

There are many reasons for his decline in production. Some of it has to do with his unwillingness to scramble and use his mobility. In the first two games, Wentz has run the ball three times for nine yards. Last year, Wentz averaged nearly four attempts and 15 rushing yards per game. In 2017, before his ACL injury, Wentz averaged 4.9 carries and 23 rushing yards per game. Of course, it was on a QB keeper that his injury took place.

More of it has to do with the volume of injuries suffered by a once elite offensive line. But the biggest impediment to his being a fantasy starter is simply the lack of receivers on the team.

By the end of last season, the Eagles were using more two tight-end sets, or 12 formation, than any team in the NFL besides the Baltimore Ravens. They were the only two teams to deploy the set more than 30% of the time. For the Ravens, this was more so due to the type of offense they want to run. In the case of Philadelphia, it was due to the fact their only other receiver who was healthy was Greg Ward. Miles Sanders came on strong in the second half of the season as did Boston Scott down the stretch but counting on your running back position is not a successful plan in what is now a passing league. This led to a mediocre 9-7 season and being bounced from the playoffs by the Seahawks.

This offseason Philadelphia was hoping to get stronger at the WR position with Alshon Jeffery coming back healthy alongside DeSean Jackson. They also added receivers Jalen Reagor and John Hightower in the draft. While Reagor was injured in camp leading up to the season, Jeffery has still yet to make his debut in 2020. Second-year receiver J.J. Arcega-Whiteside has still not found his way into the good graces of the team meaning it is reliant upon its TE duo to once again carry the load. Dallas Goedert had a big Week 1 with over 100 yards and a TD but Zach Ertz was lacking with only two catches for 28 yards. In Week 2, Ertz raised his receptions to five yet still only gained 42 yards. Goedert also had a quiet week with four receptions for 30 yards.

It was nice to see Jackson get involved in the game plan but with the defenses of Pittsburgh and San Francisco coming up, the road ahead is difficult. The 49ers have lost some major pieces this week in Nick Bosa on defense and Jimmy Garoppolo for a while. Add in a banged-up George Kittle and still-absent Deebo Samuel, this means they will become even more run-heavy to slow things down. This will limit the time Wentz will have to gain you any stats.

With all the issues the Eagles are having on offense, Carson Wentz has only thrown for two TD while also throwing four interceptions in the first two games of the season. His 58.8% completion rate is also down over four points from his career average and his 6.0 yards per attempt is also far lower than his career mark of 6.9. The lack of receivers is part of the issue but Wentz has himself to blame too, with a 32.9% On Target rate in Week 1. After an end-zone INT in Week 2, the fans let him have it.

The Eagles "digitally" booed Carson Wentz after an INT ??pic.twitter.com/ERNmSgcmby

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) September 20, 2020

With tough games against Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and New England coming up, you are likely to find better streaming options on a weekly basis. Whereas Wentz was a clear top-10 QB only two seasons ago, he now becomes a fantasy backup each week unless things change drastically. If the receiving corps gets healthier, this could mark a turnaround. In the meanwhile, let this change happen without Carson Wentz on your team. You will be better off for it and so will your fantasy record.

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