RADIO
Fantasy owners are always searching for a leg up on the competition. They are trying to find the down player who is due to bounce back or the breakout to avoid, who is due to regress. But the opposite is equally as valuable.
Finding 2019 breakouts who will continue to improve brings an unexpected aspect to drafts. Other owners may be avoiding these guys by default; the easy-access ownership strategy to avoid looking like the chump. We know better.
Here are 2019 breakout infielders who are not due for that regression and should be drafted as the improved players they now are.
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Rafael Devers (3B, BOS)
Last year, the young cornerman set career highs pretty much across the board. He has slowly ramped up his playing time in each of his first three years, which can often lead to a softening of rate stats. As a player sees more action, his highs don't become quite as high. That wasn't the case with Devers; much the opposite. As he's seen the field more, he has produced better, including a league-leading 54 doubles and 359 total bases a season ago.
At only 23 years old, the year-over-year improvement makes sense, and there is no sign that things should revert back to a lesser form in 2020. Devers' '19 output was not fluky in the least. His .311/.361/.555 slash line looks ridiculous until you realize he had an expected batting average in the 93rd percentile in the league, an xSLG in the 85th percentile, and was one of the hardest hitters in the sport. Only five percent of the players in baseball hit the ball harder than his 92.1 average exit velocity.
Devers isn't changing the way he functions though. His barrel percentage and launch angle were in line with his previous season. He is simply striking out less and getting better at the contact he makes, hitting the ball harder with every swing.
Ketel Marte (2B/OF, ARI)
Marte's fifth season in the majors was a coming-out party. Thirty-two of his fifty-four career home runs were hit during 2019. His previous career-best slugging percentage was .437 before last year's monstrous .592. Everything about the out-of-nowhere improvement screams fluke, except the underlying numbers.
The reason Marte was so much better in '19 is that he made clear changes and improvements to his game. This outcome was no coincidence. His launch angle more than doubled from 2018 to '19. He barreled up more than twice as many balls as well. His ground-ball rate plummeted, and his fly ball and line-drive rates rose. There wasn't much difference in his walk or strikeout rates. Marte was just making better contact than he had in the past.
This was reflected in his elite xBA (94th percentile) and xwOBA (88th percentile). It would be hard to believe that the old Marte could be a serious hitter like this. Good thing this is no longer the old Marte.
Yoan Moncada (3B, CHW)
Yoan Moncada breakout in 2019 was not a surprise. With elite pedigree, it felt like it was only a matter of time before he put a full season together. Moncada was the top prospect in baseball and turned in a season where he hit 41 percent better than average (according to OPS+), all within four years. Though it isn't as prompt of a return as we've seen from some other top prospects, Moncada is following a perfectly natural career arc. And don't expect a slowdown now that he's putting everything together at the plate.
Moncada's batting profile is elite in nearly every category. As you see, he stood out last year in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, ranking in the 97th percentile in the former and 92nd percentile in the latter.
In other words, there are few players in all of baseball who hit the ball hard more often or hit the ball harder in general. Hard contact doesn't guarantee hits, but it's surely preferable to the alternative. Moncada doubled up the league average in barrel percentage. Add in his premiere sprint speed, and it's no wonder he has a career .369 BABIP. All this superb contact could have been dragged down by a still high strikeout rate, but it wasn't. In fact, Moncada set a career-best K-rate in '19, and if that trend continues, he could be even better than his .315/.367/.548 this season.
Yandy Diaz (3B, TB)
Many baseball folks were surprised at the season put together by Yandy Diaz in '19. He showed elite power, with a 91.7 average exit velocity, and an all-around great batted-ball profile. He was in the top quarter of the sport in xBA, hard-hit percentage, and xwOBA. I'm not sure if Diaz even belongs on this list though. Last year wasn't really a breakout; it was more of the same from him. He simply was given the most playing time of his career, which put him on the fantasy radar like never before.
The year prior, when Diaz garnered all of 120 at-bats, he racked up a 92.1 average exit velocity, with an even higher xBA, and nearly identical ratios across the rest of his batted-ball profile. In 2017, it was much the same story. He only saw 156 AB, but had a 91.5 exit velo, and the best HH% of his career. This past season finally saw him become a valuable, everyday player, but it wasn't because he changed his approach. Diaz was given more time to prove his worth before succumbing to injury.
Because of the way Tampa Bay operates, 500 ABs worth of playing time will be no guarantee in 2020 for poor Diaz. The dude continues to do nothing but rake. He was worth rostering in standard leagues last year before going down in July. He will be even better this season if allowed to run with the everyday job at third base.
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