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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 24. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 24. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-4 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time to time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year. As the season draws to a close, it becomes increasingly difficult to find new breakouts, but that's what this series is here for.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the three names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
Let's get to the picks for Week 24!
MJ Melendez, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals catcher and outfielder MJ Melendez has been one of the most underrated power hitters in baseball this season. His home ballpark is one of the reasons for that. Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri, is one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball in terms of containing the long ball. Other Royals in the lineup have felt the impact of Kauffman's home run suppression, including first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Despite this, Melendez should be highlighted for his power metrics.
Melendez has an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph, which ranks in the 98th percentile among qualified hitters this season. The 24-year-old also has a 50.9 hard-hit% on this season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile. When you impact the ball as hard as Melendez does, the power number should follow. But the Royals slugger only has 14 home runs this season. The power has instead translated to doubles; Melendez has 28 doubles this season.
The 24-year-old catcher and outfielder is not just strong with the bat; he has a cannon as well. Melendez is in the 91st percentile for arm value and 93rd percentile for arm strength. Although a .238 batting average does not seem outstanding, Melendez has improved across the board from last season. His defensive versatility gives him a reason to be in the lineup every night.
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners shortstop J.P. Crawford has been a much improved played on offense this season, slashing .269/.386/.433 with 15 home runs, 82 runs, and 50 RBI. The 15 home runs is already a career-high for the 28-year-old, and there is still a little under a month left in the season to build upon that. The 82 runs and 50 RBI are the second-highest marks of Crawford's career. He is only eight runs and five RBI away from setting new career highs in both categories.
Crawford's improvements on offense can be seen clearly when you track his wOBA by season compared to the MLB average. For the first six seasons of his career, Crawford was at or below the major league average in wOBA. In 2023, the Mariners shortstop is well above the MLB average, over 40 points higher. wOBA is just one of the many categories that Crawford has improved in this season.
The 28-year-old has by far the highest OBP and SLG of his career, slugging over .400 for the first time. Crawford has a walk rate over 15% for the first time since his 23-game rookie campaign in 2017. The left-handed hitting shortstop has the highest average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit% of his career. The Seattle Mariners are only a half-game back of the Houston Astros for the lead in the AL West division, and Crawford has been a big reason for their success this season.
Mauricio Dubon, Houston Astros
Houston Astros utility man Mauricio Dubon is having a career year in Texas. Dubon is slashing .276/.305/.406 with nine home runs, 69 runs, 40 RBI, and seven stolen bases this season. The former Giant had his most impactful stretch of the season early in the year while Jose Altuve was on the injured list. Dubon found himself locked into an everyday role, and he thrived. Since Altuve's activation from the injured list, Dubon's role has shrunk. But he has remained productive with his opportunities.
The 28-year-old has shown flashes of upside in the past. But this season is the most significant sample size we have to evaluate Dubon. The last time Dubon had a batting average over .270 was in 2020 with the San Francisco Giants. That year, Dubon only had 177 at-bats in 54 games. This season has proved that Dubon is the same hitter he has shown flashes of being in the past. His production stays strong when given more opportunities.
Dubon has established himself as one of the better contact hitters in the league this season. The Astros' utility man is in the 92nd percentile in whiff rate and 93rd percentile in strikeout rate. In the last two seasons, Dubon's contact rate has been at or above 85%. His zone contact rate this season is a career-high 89.1%. Whether Dubon plays with the Astros or somewhere else next season, he has proven he can be a productive hitter with a full workload.
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