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Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 17 lineups in 2022. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.
It’s week 17 and that means most leagues are set up for their fantasy finals. Whether you made your finals or want to join in the DFS fun, I’m here with some Boom and Bust players to help you win.
Last week was wild. Weather deterred many fantasy stalwarts such as Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Dalvin Cook, and Rhamondre Stevenson. However, many other options showed up for their fantasy managers. For example, Cam Akers, James Conner, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, and Leonard Fournette all had big weeks.
This week, we have some massive matchups. With the fate of the finals (or semi-finals) up for grabs, wins will come at a premium. It’s a huge week to break down, so here are this week’s Boom and Bust players. If articles aren't your jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.
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Laying the Boom
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff has finagled his way into the top-ten QBs for fantasy this season. This Lions team has been optimal for fantasy purposes, as they have zero defense and resort to their passing game to keep them in matchups. As a result, Goff is eighth in pass attempts, seventh in yards, and sixth in passing touchdowns.
This week he faces a Bears defense that is allowing the seventh most fantasy points to the position on the season and the second most over the last six weeks. Who is the defense allowing the most fantasy points to the position? Well, that happens to be the Lions. Justin Fields will dominate this defense and force Goff to throw early and often. With the Lions’ full roster of pass catchers, there are plenty of talented options that’ll support Goff to a top-ten finish on the week.
Christian Watson (WR, GB)
I’m completely on board with this rookie WR. All offseason we heard how he is a high-risk, raw, athlete who could either spark out of the league or be the next big play threat. Well, it’s clear we have the latter part of that statement because Watson is electric.
His 6’4” 210lbs frame and 4.36 speed have been on full display since he returned from injury. Demanding six or more targets in each game since Week 10, this is the perfect player to be paired with Aaron Rodgers. Plus, it’s been three weeks since he last caught a touchdown. I expect that to change against a Vikings team that is allowing the second most fantasy points on the season, and the most fantasy points to the position over the last six weeks. I would start him as a low-end WR1, with week winning upside.
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
This might be low-hanging fruit, but I have a feeling many people haven’t realized that this Bills team has struggled on defense lately. More specifically, this team has struggled against the WR position. Over the last six weeks, this team has allowed the sixth most fantasy points, fifth most yards, and third most touchdowns to the position.
This is the matchup of the week in my opinion, and I can’t wait to see these two offenses go head-to-head. The Bengals have been great at stopping opposing running backs, but are middle of the pack against QBs and WRs, which plays right to Buffalo’s strength. There’s a good chance we have a good old-fashioned shoot-out this Monday Night, and for the Bengals to stay in it, their star WRs need to produce. I expect both of these WRs to have huge days this week.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
We need to start reconsidering what James Conner has been doing the last few weeks. After being everyone’s sneaky RB1 in draft season, his injured start to the season immediately soured the taste in many fantasy managers’ mouths. However, since returning from injury, he has been incredible. Since Week 5 he is the RB5. Over that six-game span that includes four top-5 weekly performances, with RB14 as his lowest finish. That’s truly incredible.
This week he faces a surprisingly stout Falcons defense. Atlanta is middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position over the last six weeks and allowing the eighth most fantasy points on the season. This offense truly runs through the veteran back, and I expect his six-game touchdown streak to continue for your fantasy finals.
Fear the Bust
Geno Smith (QB, SEA)
Despite being the QB7 on the season, this entire Seattle team has seemingly started to come off the rails at the wrong time this season. After three straight losses, they now face a playoff desperate Jets team that has been a menace to opposing offenses all season.
To add insult to injury, Smith has yet to finish within the top 15 fantasy QBs each of the last two weeks. On the season this Jets team has allowed the tenth fewest fantasy points to the position, while over their last six weeks they have allowed the sixth-fewest. This might be one of the worst matchups to ride an ice-cold fantasy QB in your fantasy finals. Lastly, although this defense has been very stout against WRs, if Lockett remains out, I would desperately try and look elsewhere this week. These options I’d play over him include Brock Purdy and Aaron Rodgers.
Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White (RB, TB)
Fournette is coming off a monster workload and north of 160 yards in Week 16, this might be a tough pill to swallow. This week the Bucs face their division rival who is out for blood and it starts with their run defense.
You might see that the Panthers are allowing the 15th most fantasy points on the season to the RB position, and think nothing of this week’s matchup. However, over the last six weeks, they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game. This includes the third-fewest rushing touchdowns per game and the eighth-fewest rushing yards over that span.
At this point if you are rostering Fournette, you are probably chuckling to yourself and saying something along the lines of: “This fool, the Bucs have been brutal at running all season and Fournette’s passing work has carried him to an RB1 season in PPR formats.” So here’s the best part: over the last six weeks, the panthers are allowing fewer than eight receiving yards, zero receiving touchdowns, and three receptions a game to the RB position. This includes matchups against D’Andre Swift, Najee Harris, and Corderalle Patterson, all renowned pass catchers.
So, you add this matchup with the fact that Rachaad White is taking away nearly five targets a game since Week 9, and you have a giant red flag for this week. Still don’t believe me? Let me ice this cake by telling you the Panthers are allowing 1.5 passing touchdowns and north of 220 passing yards per game over their last six weeks. Whether you want to listen to this analysis or not is up to you, just know I have both White and Fournette outside of my top-20 this week.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARZ)
For anyone who survived Nuk’s one reception for five yards last week, I’m sure you’re looking desperately for a bounce-back performance. Unfortunately, I’m here to tell you I don’t think that’s going to happen. If Trace McSorely is under center then I especially don’t think he’s playable, but even if Colt McCoy is back, I’d seriously question playing him.
It’s time we removed the idea that the Falcons are no good at defending the pass. This season, they have completely turned that logic around. Arguably more impressive is that despite allowing the eighth most fantasy points to WRs on the season, over the last six weeks they have allowed the sixth-fewest. That’s right, with A.J. Terrell back they have been dominant against the opposing team's top wideout. This includes holding Chris Olave, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore to under five receptions and 55 yards each.
Although their recent dominance is inflated by games against teams without stellar WR cores such as the Ravens, Steelers, and Bears, there is no denying the talent of the list above. Of course, Hopkins possesses the talent to overcome any matchup, but I’d be weary of playing him again this week.
D.K. Metcalf (WR, SEA)
Pairing perfectly with my bust QB and my other bust WR pick, here’s another big-name WR I’m predicting to have a down week. This one is pretty easy, and I’ve used this logic with outstanding success in the past: the Jets are really good at defending WRs. Like, really good.
I’ve called some bold busts before, and the Jets have yet to let me down. This includes holding Stefon Diggs to three receptions for 37 yards in Week 14 and Justin Jefferson to seven catches for 45 yards in Week 13. In fact, the only top WR to have success against them in the last four weeks was Amon-Ra St. Brown who had seven receptions for 72 yards. The catch here, St. Brown predominantly plays in the slot, which is not Metcalf’s MO.
If you’re thinking to yourself “that’s a really small sample size” here are some more statistics for you. Over the last six weeks, the Jets are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points (17.6) to the WR position. Still not enough for you? On the season, the Jets are allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position (21.2).
If Lockett is out, you can expect enough targets to keep his fantasy numbers afloat. However, I would not be relying on a top-15 performance from the young star. If Lockett is in, I am even more worried as he’ll eat up those slot targets as well. Proceed with caution.
Last Week's Booms and Busts Summary
Boom
- Aaron Rodgers (QB, GBP): 238 yards, one TD, one interception, one fumble, 12.3 fpts
- Geno Smith (QB, SEA): 215 yards, one TD, one interception, 16 yards, 12 fpts
- Leonard Fournette (RB, TB): 70 yards, nine receptions, 90 yards, 20 fpts
- Aaron Jones (RB, GBP): *injured* 34 yards, two receptions, 4.4 fpts
- Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS): four receptions, 77 yards, TD, 15.7 fpts
- Diontae Johnson (WR, PIT): five receptions, 64 yards, 8.4 fpts
Bust
- Dak Prescott (QB, DAL): 388 yards, three TDs, one interception, one fumble, 27 fpts
- Josh Jacobs (RB, LVR): 44 yards, one reception, five yards, 5.4 fpts
- CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL): 10 receptions, 120 yards, two touchdowns, 29 fpts
- Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF): five receptions, 81 yards, 10.6 fpts
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