MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/4/2025)

August 4, 2025

Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/4/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Jose Ramirez, Jordan Beck, and Anthony Volpe.

We have a larger slate than usual for a Monday, so I'm excited to dive into several intriguing spots for value on home run props. Today's hitters include Yandy Diaz, Trevor Story, Jose Ramirez, Jordan Beck, William Contreras, and Anthony Volpe. Each player featured on today's page is swinging a hot bat right now.

The process of targeting my home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price with betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on a volatile market like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll before you know it.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, August 4, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/4/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, August 4:

• Yandy Diaz (+350)
• Trevor Story (+390)
• Jose Ramirez (+400)
• Jordan Beck (+425)
• William Contreras (+500)
• Anthony Volpe (+650)

Yandy Diaz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+350 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Yandy Diaz now has 20 home runs after two yesterday.

Just needs three more for a new career-high.#RaysUp pic.twitter.com/yaMZ1EI5qS

— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) August 3, 2025

Diaz is currently slashing .282/.342/.472 with 20 home runs in 473 plate appearances, only two off his previous career-high of 22 long balls, set back in 2023.

This is one of the hottest hitters in baseball, as highlighted by a .586 slugging percentage with six homers in 69 plate appearances since the All-Star break.

Up next is an exploitable matchup against Angels lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who is allowing a .332 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 against righties. This bodes well for Diaz, who has a .549 slugging percentage against southpaws this season. With that in mind, let's ride with this red-hot slugger to hit his 21st homer of the year.

Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+390 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Trevor Story breaks the tie with a moon shot! pic.twitter.com/mSIH4BQdvR

— MLB (@MLB) August 2, 2025

The next prop focuses on a Red Sox shortstop who has exceeded expectations this season. Story carries a .256/.299/.431 slash with 18 home runs in 446 plate appearances.

This is another red-hot hitter, as Story is slashing .250/.306/.518 with three homers in 62 plate appearances in the second half so far.

Tonight's matchup looks exploitable, as the Red Sox are going up against Royals lefty Bailey Falter. Not only has Falter given up a 1.44 HR/9 to righties, but Story is also putting up a 105 wRC+ vs. lefties.

Add in the fact that Story has homered three times in the last five games, and you can see why this is an appealing wager.

Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Two straight days with a two-run HR for José Ramírez 💥 pic.twitter.com/W69z79ywW1

— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2025

Ramirez is having yet another productive season, featuring a .302/.377/.533 slash with 23 home runs in 464 plate appearances.

The Guardians star is red-hot at the plate right now, homering in back-to-back games to put his second-half slash at .344/.452/.689 with five homers in 73 plate appearances.

There's a good chance that Ramirez can keep it rolling tonight in an exploitable matchup against Mets lefty Sean Manaea. Ramirez is hitting .350 with a .962 OPS against southpaws this year, while Manaea has a career .313 wOBA against right-handers.

While it's not a pitcher-friendly environment at Citi Field, I can't pass up Ramirez with how he's swinging the bat right now. Let's ride with this superstar veteran to hit his 24th homer of the season.

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Jordan Beck OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+425 DraftKings Sportsbook)

VFL Jordan Beck hits a 💣 off of Paul Skenes pic.twitter.com/8KlrPoNfpC

— Rocky Top Now (@rockytopnow) August 2, 2025

Beck has been one of the positives in a horrific season for the Rockies, slashing .279/.338/.473 with 14 home runs in 400 plate appearances this season.

This is yet another red-hot hitter who carries a .364/.444/.636 slash with four homers in 63 plate appearances since the All-Star break.

What I love about this spot is that it comes against a lefty in Eric Lauer. While the Blue Jays southpaw has been surprisingly effective this season, Beck has an impressive 155 wRC+ vs. left-handers.

If that's not enough for you, this game will be played at Coors, giving Beck a boost in this spot. You have to love Beck's numbers at Coors vs. lefties, featuring a .929 OPS.

This is a hitter who has homered three times in his last five games, so let's roll with the hot streak to take the Rockies' 24-year-old outfielder to go yard once again.

William Contreras OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)

William Contreras brings the @Brewers level 💪 pic.twitter.com/La9Ef3YoCn

— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2025

William Contreras has been a major disappointment this season, as highlighted by an underwhelming .258/.352/.376 slash with nine home runs in 460 plate appearances.

However, the veteran is finally heating up at the plate, slashing .323/.357/.523 with three homers in 70 plate appearances since the All-Star break. Contreras has three homers in his last four games, including two against the Cubs on July 30th.

Up next is an exploitable matchup against Braves righty Erick Fedde, who has allowed a 9.2% barrel rate on the season. The veteran's debut in Atlanta did not go well, featuring four earned runs and one home run allowed in 4.2 innings.

With that in mind, you have to like the spot for Contreras to keep the good times rolling. Bet on him to hit his 10th homer of the season tonight at the appealing price of +500 odds at DraftKings.

Anthony Volpe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+650 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Since the all star break, Anthony Volpe’s attack angle has been 13 degrees, and his attack direction is just 1 degree oppo.

The results? A 178 wRC+ and a 1.035 OPS. Never listen to anyone saying he needs to “swing level and slap it the other way” pic.twitter.com/SHyVWoTtGi

— Kin Knows Ball (@_24kin) August 2, 2025

Anthony Volpe has received a lot of criticism for his defense, plus his overall line of .221/.288/.427 is nothing to get excited about. However, the Yankees shortstop has shown improvement in power, featuring 17 home runs in 445 plate appearances, which is only four off his previous career-high of 21, set back in 2023.

We're seeing Volpe barrel the baseball at a much higher rate of 10.7%, which is a career-best, and a major increase from last year's 3.9%.

This is a hitter who has been scorching hot at the plate lately, putting up a .979 OPS since the All-Star break. Volpe has homered five times in his last 11 games.

Tonight's matchup is a good one against Rangers lefty Patrick Corbin, as Volpe has performed well against southpaws, as highlighted by an .833 OPS, which is much higher than his .670 OPS against righties.

Considering how well Volpe is swinging the bat right now, you have to like the long-shot +650 odds for him to hit a home run. Let's take a shot on Volpe to go yard for the 18th time tonight.

Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.

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