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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/7/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Trevor Story and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
We have a smaller slate of MLB action on Monday, forcing us to dig a bit deeper to find value in our home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Trevor Story, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Elly De La Cruz, Jose Ramirez, and Oneil Cruz. Each player is either swinging a hot bat, is in an exploitable matchup, or has a great price.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, July 7, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/7/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Monday, July 7:
- Trevor Story (+290)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+290)
- Elly De La Cruz (+320)
- Jose Ramirez (+340)
- Oneil Cruz (+600)
Trevor Story OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Story is slashing .252/.293/.402 with 13 home runs in 353 plate appearances this season. While those numbers aren't that impressive, this has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. Since June 28th, Story has a .469/.500/.875 slash with a 281 wRC+ and three home runs in 34 plate appearances.
Trevor Story last 7 games:
13-26 (.500)
3 HR, 3 2B, 10 RBI
1 BB, 2 K
1 SB pic.twitter.com/Y4QPvZcOBK— Boston Strong (@BostonStrong_34) July 6, 2025
What I love about this matchup for Story is that it's against Rockies' lefty Austin Gomber, who has allowed a .426 wOBA with four home runs in 16 innings against righties. That plays right into Story's wheelhouse, as the veteran shortstop has a 111 wRC+ against lefties this season (84 wRC+ vs right-handers).
While Story is priced up in this matchup at (+290) odds, this is the perfect storm of a red-hot hitter in a terrific righty-vs-lefty matchup against a mediocre starting pitcher.
With that in mind, let's ride with Story to keep the good times rolling and hit his 14th homer of the season in this exploitable spot.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+290 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Guerrero Jr. is having a disappointing season, featuring a .279/.383/.442 slash with 12 home runs in 384 plate appearances. But the strong batted ball metrics are still there, as highlighted by a 13.9% barrel rate. The last time that Vlad Jr. hit a home run was on June 29th, but tonight looks like a good spot for another one.
The big boy is back.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s first home run of 2025: pic.twitter.com/fequ2WJ23V
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) April 16, 2025
The Blue Jays go on the road to take on Sean Burke and the lowly White Sox. Burke is a 25-year-old righty who is allowing a .346 wOBA to righties (.328 wOBA) along with a 10.6% barrel rate. We have seen Burke overperform with a 4.03 ERA, which is much lower than his 5.15 xERA.
Even with Vlad Jr. overpriced at (+290) odds, the matchup looks too good for me to pass up. It's only a matter of time before Vlad Jr. starts to go on a power binge, as this is a player who can get to 35+ home runs in any given season.
With that in mind, let's take a shot on Vlad Jr. to hit his 13th homer of the season.
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)
De La Cruz has a .279/.352/.491 slash with 18 home runs in 384 plate appearances. This includes impressive batted ball metrics, featuring a 14.1% barrel rate. While Elly hasn't homered since June 23rd, we'll take a shot on him to hit his 19th long ball of the season in a favorable matchup.
Elly De La Cruz is officially a 2x All-Star ⭐️
It’s only just getting started for him pic.twitter.com/7mKpUj2aGw
— Ohio Divided (@BuckeyeNatty) July 6, 2025
For one, this is a game at Great American Ball Park, which is the most homer-friendly venue in baseball. Elly has a 130 wRC+ at home along with seven of his 18 home runs.
On top of that, the Reds are taking on Marlins' righty Janson Junk, who has been much worse than lefties (.334 wOBA) compared to righties (.225 wOBA).
When you consider the exploitable spot at home along with a pitcher who has a tough time vs lefties, you can see why Elly is priced up at (+320) odds here.
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Jose Ramirez OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+340 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Ramirez is slashing .300/.362/.489 with 14 home runs in 354 plate appearances. This includes a recent home run on July 4th against the Tigers. I always like to target players who have homered recently because there's always a chance that we're catching a hot streak early.
José Ramírez’s power and speed combo is rare.
He’s just 32 home runs and 36 stolen bases from becoming the 9th player in MLB history to have 300 HR/300 SB! pic.twitter.com/daCQGtZSJz
— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2025
This is a spot where Ramirez goes up against Astros' lefty Colton Gordon, who has been crushed by righties this season, featuring a .371 wOBA and 1.95 HR/9 (.290 wOBA, 1.08 HR/9 vs righties).
Ramirez has been phenomenal against lefties this season, as highlighted by a .344/.393/.479 slash with two home runs. This is something that we've seen throughout his career, featuring a .505 slugging percentage.
This is another hitter who is priced up at (+340) odds despite not putting up gaudy power numbers this season, but I'm willing to take the plunge against a left-handed pitcher who has gotten crushed vs righties in Gordon.
With that in mind, let's ride with Ramirez to hit his 15th home run of the season in this spot.
Oneil Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Cruz has had a disappointing season, which includes a .206/.319/.408 slash with 15 home runs in 339 plate appearances. However, this is a hitter who has some of the best batted ball metrics in MLB, including an absurd 21.8% barrel rate and 122.9 MPH maximum exit velocity.
Along with an absolute rocket of an arm, there seems to be untapped power in this bat. It wouldn't surprise me to see Cruz tap into that power with a strong second half.
We are still in complete awe of Oneil Cruz's rocket of a throw 🚀 pic.twitter.com/7MI57kWnX7
— MLB (@MLB) July 6, 2025
This doesn't appear to be a good matchup at first glance. Cruz is going up against Royals' lefty Noah Cameron. We've seen Cruz struggle against southpaws, featuring a .117/.236/.208 slash with only one of his 15 homers. So why am I taking a shot on the Pirates' outfielder?
For one, Cameron has reverse splits, including a .293 wOBA allowed to lefties (.241 wOBA vs righties). On top of that, we've seen the Royals' rookie struggle lately, allowing five or more runs in two of his last five outings. Cameron has failed to pitch more than 5.1 innings in four consecutive starts.
Then you factor in that we're getting a nice price on a hitter who barrels the ball at a better rate than most at (+600 odds), making Cruz look like an appealing wager here.
Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market.
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