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Frank's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/2/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Matt Olson, and more!
We've a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, providing several opportunities to find value in our home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Matt Olson, Yainer Diaz, and Kyle Stowers. Each player is either swinging a hot bat or in an exploitable matchup.
The strategy behind choosing home run props involves several key factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure we're getting a favorable price regarding betting odds. You don't want to pay inflated lines on volatile outcomes like home runs, or you can burn through your bankroll quickly.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, July 2, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/2/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Wednesday, July 2:
- Aaron Judge (+205)
- Cal Raleigh (+235)
- Matt Olson (+285)
- Yainer Diaz (+370)
- Kyle Stowers (+500)
Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+205 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Judge is slashing .354/.458/.717 with 30 home runs in 373 plate appearances. While the Yankees' slugger *only* had a 157 wRC+ in June -- down from 234 wRC+ in May -- we just saw him homer twice against the Athletics on June 29th, so perhaps he's slowly getting back on track.
Five straight seasons of 30+ home runs for Aaron Judge! pic.twitter.com/GaPigSOMkE
— Talkin' Yanks (@TalkinYanks) June 29, 2025
What I like about this spot for Judge is the matchup against Blue Jays' righty Jose Berrios. This is a pitcher who has allowed a 10.5% barrel rate this season, so he's giving up a lot of hard contact. On top of that, we've seen Judge have a lot of success versus Berrios in his career, homering five times with a .566 xwOBA in 161 plate appearances.
While Judge is always priced up to hit a home run since he's the best hitter in baseball, I'm fine with taking the plunge because we're getting this prop at longer than (+200) odds. We've seen Judge priced as low as (+180), which is too expensive for me.
With that in mind, let's ride with Judge to hit his 31st homer of the season in an exploitable matchup against a pitcher that he's had success against in the past.
Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+235 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Raleigh is having a remarkable year, featuring a .276/.389/.649 slash with 33 home runs in 367 plate appearances. The Mariners' catcher has put up a 190 wRC+ or better in each of the last two months. We often see homers come in bunches for the best sluggers in the game, and Raleigh just homered in his previous game.
BIG DUMPER BLAST!
That's No. 33 for Cal Raleigh 💪 pic.twitter.com/ijb4ChCh2v
— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2025
We've seen Raleigh homer in consecutive games on numerous occasions this season, including five homers in four games from June 20th to 23rd. Why not take a shot on him to hit his 34th long ball of the year in a good matchup against Royals' lefty Noah Cameron?
The rookie has overperformed his ERA all year, and we're starting to see some regression. Cameron is coming off a poor outing against the Dodgers, where he allowed five runs and two homers in only four innings.
We've seen Cameron have a tough time against righties, as highlighted by a 4.63 xFIP (3.83 xFIP vs lefties), which is bad news against an elite power hitter like Raleigh.
We'll target Raleigh to homer in this spot at (+235) odds.
Matt Olson OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Olson has a .261/.364/.474 slash with 15 homers in 365 plate appearances, which is below career norms. But this is a slugger who put up a season-high 162 wRC+ in June, as he's finally starting to get positive results after an unlucky start to the season. Olson has been hitting the ball hard all year long, featuring an elite 17% barrel rate.
Matt Olson goes yard for his 12th home run of the season and gives the @Braves the lead! pic.twitter.com/5AGnFdHdBb
— MLB (@MLB) May 24, 2025
What's interesting about Olson is that he's a left-handed bat who has performed better against lefties this season, including a .519 slugging percentage (.459 SLG vs righties).
That's good news for tonight's matchup against Angels' lefty Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled against Olson in his career. In 26 career plate appearances, Olson has two homers versus Kikuchi.
With that in mind, let's take a shot on a slugger who has excellent batted ball metrics to hit his 16th homer of the season. The odds look like a decent price at (+285) when you consider how Olson has performed against Kikuchi.
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Diaz is having a disappointing season, as highlighted by a .242/.272/.388 slash with 10 home runs in 294 plate appearances. However, this is a 26-year-old bat who is starting to get on track, hitting safely in four of his last five games, including a homer on June 27th.
Yainer Diaz sends a missile into the Crawford Boxes for three! pic.twitter.com/BHXfozK2eo
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 28, 2025
What's good about Diaz is that he mashes lefties, featuring a 112 wRC+ and .188 ISO against them this season (77 wRC+ and .137 ISO vs righties).
Up next is a matchup against Rockies' lefty Austin Gomber, who is giving up a .444 wOBA and 2.45 HR/9 vs righties. Look for Diaz to have a reasonable chance to hit his 11th homer of the season in this spot.
Did I mention that this game is at Coors Field, which we all know as the most hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball?
When I was choosing a righty to target against Gomber, I found that other Astros like Cam Smith and Christian Walker were a bit too expensive, while Diaz looks like a reasonable value at (+370) odds. With that in mind, we'll take a shot on the lefty-mashing catcher who is finally finding his groove.
Kyle Stowers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Stowers is slashing .279/.357/.498 with 13 home runs in 301 plate appearances in what's been an impressive season for the former Orioles' prospect. This is an emerging slugger with an elite 19.2% barrel rate, making him look like a great value at (+500) odds tonight.
We're also starting to see Stowers heat up, featuring three homers in his last eight games.
Kyle Stowers - Miami Marlins (14)
pic.twitter.com/60nWKw3zzj— MLB HR Videos (@MLBHRVideos) July 1, 2025
The Marlins' slugger has a good matchup against Twins' righty Simeon Woods Richardson tonight. This is a pitcher who has had a tough time against lefties, featuring a .371 wOBA and 1.46 HR/9 against them (.290 wOBA and 1.07 HR/9 vs righties).
This is a pitcher who struggles in allowing hard contact, as highlighted by a 12.4% barrel rate.
Here we have a breakout left-handed hitter with elite batted ball metrics, taking on a pitcher who struggles against lefties and gives up a lot of barrels.
With that in mind, let's take a shot on Stowers to hit his 14th home run of the season.
Thanks for reading and for checking out all of our MLB betting content at RotoBaller! Make sure to manage your bankroll responsibly, especially on home run props, since they're a tough market to win in.
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