Kyle Larson's Late-Race Charge at Dover Comes up Short

Kyle Larson finished a close second to Denny Hamlin in this past weekend's Dover race. He led 39 laps after first beating Martin Truex, Jr. on a green flag pit cycle to win Stage 2 and again took the lead on a caution-flag exchange of pit stops on lap 325. In both cases, Larson eventually […]

Denny Hamlin Takes Checkered Flag at Dover for Third Win of Season

Denny Hamlin scored his third win of the season at the Würth 400 at Dover this past weekend, a win that was forecasted by many models, including our own Jordan McAbee's algorithm-predicted finishing order two days ago. Hamlin's win shouldn't have come as a surprise because many observers expected that the tire wear at Dover […]

Zane Smith Unlikely to Contend After Practice Crash

Zane Smith did not have a good start to his weekend after crashing in the second practice session, which prevented him from registering a time in qualifying. Smith has mightily struggled in his rookie NASCAR Cup Series campaign as he has been both slow and crash-prone. After Daniel Hemric posted the fastest average speed at […]

Dover Not One of Brad Keselowski's Best Tracks

Brad Keselowski still awaits his first win since becoming an owner-driver for his RFK Racing team despite a near-miss last week when Tyler Reddick edged him out coming to the finish at Talladega, but it probably won't come this weekend at Dover. Keselowski did win at "The Monster Mile" once in 2012 via fuel mileage, […]

Ty Gibbs Likely to Contend if Joe Gibbs Racing as Fast as Expected

Ty Gibbs qualified 19th at Dover this weekend, but expect him to carve his way through the field at least to a certain extent. In last year's race, Gibbs started 24th and finished 13th in a race his teammate, Martin Truex, Jr., won. Additionally all of Gibbs' teammates finished inside the top six, indicating that […]

Austin Cindric Continues to Qualify Well, but Lacks Race Speed

Austin Cindric qualified 11th for this weekend's race at Dover, but it isn't one of his best tracks, as he failed to finish his first NASCAR Cup Series race there in 2022 and finished four laps down in 26th last year. Cindric did win his Xfinity Series start there in 2021, where he was generally […]

Harrison Burton Unlikely to Duplicate Talladega Top Ten

Harrison Burton scored his first top ten of the season last week at Talladega, but it is extremely unlikely to foresee him repeating that feat in this weekend's race at Dover. Although he did gain eleven positions from his starting position in both of his NASCAR Cup Series starts at Dover, he finished two laps […]

A.J. Allmendinger Decent at Dover but Not in Recent Years

A.J. Allmendinger qualified 10th for this weekend's Würth 400 at Dover, giving Kaulig Racing its best starting position in the NASCAR Cup Series this year. Although Allmendinger has never led a lap there in the Xfinity Series, he has finished in the top six in his last three Xfinity starts there, including finishing sixth in […]

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Finishes Fourth At Talladega

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. survived the last-lap Big One to score a fourth-place finish at Talladega on Sunday, his best finish this season. However, he didn't run nearly as well as his finish implies, as he never ran better than fourth at any period in the race, and every single driver in the field did that […]

Noah Gragson Surprisingly The Most Consistent Driver At Talladega

Perhaps surprisingly, Noah Gragson had the highest driver rating in Sunday's GEICO 500 at Talladega. Although he had won there in the Xfinity Series and his predecessor, Aric Almirola, was regularly fast on drafting tracks in his entire Stewart-Haas Racing tenure, few people saw Gragson as a top contender. However, he finished third (giving SHR […]

Shane van Gisbergen Acquits Himself Nicely In Drafting Debut

In his first NASCAR Cup Series drafting race, Shane van Gisbergen performed very admirably, although he didn't get the finish to prove it. Van Gisbergen made two passes for the lead in the race, passing Kyle Busch on lap 44 and Chris Buescher on lap 98, proving that his passing for the lead in Saturday's […]

Cody Ware Returns to NASCAR after Suspension Lifted

Cody Ware returns to action for his father Rick's team for the first time since NASCAR reinstated him after his felony assault charges were dropped last December. As with most of the drivers for backmarker teams, Ware will only likely contend if there are a lot of wrecks and he avoids them. He did have […]

Daniel Suárez More Risk-Averse after Locking Himself into Playoffs

Even though Daniel Suárez won the previous drafting race in a classic finish at Atlanta and backed into a top five at Texas last week, don't expect him to contend in this weekend's Talladega race. His win masks the fact that Suárez is actually underachieving. His speed percentile this year sits at 43.32, which is […]

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. Could Turn It Around at Talladega Despite Decline in Form

Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. has had a startling collapse since the middle of last year and this year he has been shockingly slow with a speed percentile of 30.83, which is slower than he was in any of his previous full-time seasons. However, if there is any track where he could turn it around, Talladega might […]

BJ McLeod Now Part-Time, but Still Entering Drafting Races

After selling his Live Fast Motorsports charter to Spire Motorsports last year, BJ McLeod has dropped back to a partial schedule but he continues to enter the races on drafting tracks because those are the only tracks where he realistically could get a decent finish with his team's underfunded equipment. McLeod has been generally good […]

Carson Hocevar's Inexperience at Talladega Makes Him Hard to Predict

Carson Hocevar starts way back in 35th for his first Talladega race as a full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver, but he did start the second Talladega race last year in the Legacy Motor Club No. 42 car. In that race, he crashed after never really significantly factoring. In his Craftsman Truck Series starts at Talladega, […]

Shane van Gisbergen a Better Drafter than Expected

Shane van Gisbergen makes his NASCAR Cup Series debut on a drafting track today at Talladega, but he's already shown something of a proclivity in drafting in his Xfinity Series starts, finishing 3rd at Atlanta and running in the top five for large portions of this weekend's Xfinity race, including passing Sammy Smith for the […]

Ross Chastain Strong on Drafting Tracks, but Greatest Strengths Lie Elsewhere

Ross Chastain qualified 32nd for this weekend's GEICO 500 at Talladega, but starting positions don't really matter here as long as you miss the wrecks. Chastain has been a solid performer on drafting tracks as he has made an on-track pass for the lead in eight of the fourteen NextGen drafting races to date including […]

Daniel Suárez the Luckiest Driver at Texas, Scores Top Five

Daniel Suárez had a strong fifth-place finish at Texas this weekend, which is one of his most consistent tracks. However, he ran much worse than his finishing result and was probably the luckiest driver in the race. Suarez, the winner of the previous high-banked intermediate race at Atlanta, was nowhere to be seen for most […]

Late Spinout Costs Denny Hamlin Likely Second-Place Finish

Denny Hamlin had a methodical run at Texas. He ranked second in average speed behind only his driver, Tyler Reddick, who tied him for third in laps led with 37. However, Hamlin's strong run was cut short when he spun out on the penultimate lap of the race shortly after Chase Elliott cleared him for […]

Ty Gibbs Had Speed at Texas, But Burnt by Pit Crew

Ty Gibbs qualified on the outside front row alongside polesitter Kyle Larson at Texas, but he fell to 13th in what was an extremely topsy-turvy afternoon. Gibbs fell to 8th after the first round of green flag pit stops because he pitted several laps later than the other leaders, then fell to the back after […]

Ryan Blaney Was Best Ford Driver Until Wreck With Ryan Preece

Ryan Blaney started 7th and consistently ran in the top ten in this weekend's race at Texas until he was wrecked by Ryan Preece on lap 181, resulting in a disappointing 33rd-place finish, which did not reflect how well the No. 12 Ford ran. After staying out on the first Stage break, Blaney had his […]

Intermediates Not Zane Smith's Bread and Butter

Zane Smith had one of his fastest races of the season last week at Martinsville. Because of that, he overtook Kaz Grala and Daniel Hemric to not have the worst speed percentile of the season anymore, but he's still had a rough start and has been consistently slower than his teammates, Carson Hocevar and Corey […]

Jimmie Johnson the GOAT at Texas, But NextGen Performance Is Lacking

Jimmie Johnson is clearly the greatest driver in Texas Motor Speedway history, with a record seven wins and 1,152 laps led. He even impressed in the 2022 IndyCar race at Texas as well, where he finished directly between multi-champion teammates Scott Dixon and Álex Palou in his first oval start. However, while it is one […]

Austin Hill Makes First Cup Series Start of 2024

Austin Hill has finished in the top ten in his last four Texas Motor Speedway starts in the NASCAR Xfinity Series and led 25 laps in this weekend's event on an alternate pit sequence, but he probably won't replicate that feat in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series event. Hill will be making his first Cup start […]

Kaz Grala Slowest in Practice at Texas

Kaz Grala starts this weekend's Texas race from the 33rd position. Although Grala was the slowest driver to post a qualifying time in the first qualifying group, he did post a slightly faster lap than his teammate, Justin Haley, although Haley will be starting one position better because he ranked higher within his qualifying group. […]

Noah Gragson Strong at Texas in Xfinity Series, but Cup Series Prospects Remain Unclear

Although Noah Gragson did not start last year's Texas race because it came after Legacy Motor Club suspended him for the season, he finished 21st in the fall Texas event of 2022, which was held the day after Gragson won from the pole in the Xfinity Series to complete his four-race win streak in that […]

Texas Native Chris Buescher Historically Struggles at Home Track

Chris Buescher may be Texas's current native son in NASCAR, but his record at his home track is lackluster. Not only has he never finished better than 14th at Texas, he's also never led a lap under green, as he performs better on short tracks and road courses than the 1.5-mile intermediates. However, Buescher had, […]

Intermediates a Strength for Josh Berry, but Not So Far in the Cup Series

Josh Berry qualified 25th for his first Cup Series race at Texas Motor Speedway and it's difficult to forecast his performance. Intermediates were arguably Berry's best track type in the NASCAR Xfinity Series as he scored a majority of his wins and laps led on them, but he never finished better than 6th at Texas. […]

Chase Briscoe Has Great Run At Martinsville

Chase Briscoe had easily his best run of the season at Martinsville on Sunday en route to a 10th-place finish. Teammate Ryan Preece passed him at the end because he took tires on the final caution, and Briscoe did not. However, Briscoe ranked sixth in speed, had an average running position of eighth, and easily […]