Ross Chastain in Playoff Danger After Poor Richmond Qualifying Effort

Since Ross Chastain's breakout, he has typically qualified poorly by superstar standards but methodically moved through the field whenever he doesn't crash. His Richmond record is weirdly the exact opposite, as he had his best average starting position on a track he had raced at many times entering this weekend, but despite qualifying in the […]

Richmond May Be Kyle Busch's Best Remaining Chance to Make Playoffs

If Kyle Busch has any hope of turning his season around, Richmond may well be the place. It has always been one of Busch's best tracks. However, his greatness at Richmond is becoming a distant memory, as Busch has only led 46 laps in the last eight races and Richard Childress Racing has often lacked […]

Harrison Burton's Richmond Performances Steadily Declining

Although Harrison Burton's father Jeff was a dominant driver at Richmond Raceway for most of his stint at Roush Racing, little of that success rubbed off on Harrison as he has never finished better than 18th nor has he led a lap at the track in a NASCAR Cup Series car. If anything, his performances […]

Chris Buescher More Likely to Focus On Points Than Winning at Richmond

Chris Buescher starts seventh at Richmond this weekend, tying for his best career start at the track. While Richmond was not one of his best tracks with the Gen-6 chassis, he has been quite fast in the last two summer races in the Next Gen era. Buescher won last year's race despite qualifying 26th, his […]

Alex Bowman Tends to Struggle at Richmond in Routine Races

Although Alex Bowman famously won the spring Richmond race in 2021 after spinning out Denny Hamlin (which prompted Hamlin to call him a hack after the race), his record hasn't been too strong otherwise as he has neither finished better than eighth at Richmond nor had an average running position better than sixth. Both of […]

Bubba Wallace Reenters Playoff Picture with Top Five and Stage Win at Indy

After falling out of the projected playoff grid during a slump from Talladega to Pocono when he only led seven laps and had three crash DNFs, Bubba Wallace reentered the playoff race with one of his best runs of the season in yesterday's Brickyard 400. Although he wasn't as fast as his teammate, Tyler Reddick, […]

Martin Truex Jr's Bad Luck Continues at Indianapolis

In his final Brickyard 400 start before retiring from full-time competition in the NASCAR Cup Series, Martin Truex Jr looked to win his first race at Indianapolis but his perpetual bad luck both this year and at Indianapolis reared its ugly head again. Truex was forced to serve a drive-through penalty at the start of […]

Daniel Suarez Scored a Top 10, but Was Far From Contending at Indianapolis

Daniel Suarez weaved his way through the carnage in yesterday's Brickyard 400 to collect an eighth-place finish and was one of the biggest benefactors when several faster cars crashed out. However, despite the finish, his run wasn't very impressive, as the Trackhouse Racing cars were very slow with Ross Chastain ranking 24th in speed and […]

Tyler Reddick the Fastest at Indy, but Not the Best

After previously winning on the Indianapolis road course in 2022, Tyler Reddick looked to become the first NASCAR driver to win on both Indianapolis layouts in yesterday's Brickyard 400 and nearly did so before ultimately finishing second to Kyle Larson. In addition to winning the pole, Reddick led the most laps and also led in […]

Joey Logano's Indy Crash Had Minimal Impact on His Season

Despite finishing in the top 10 in seven of his eight previous Penske races on the Indianapolis, it seemed unlikely that Joey Logano would contend in yesterday's race since he has run significantly worse in 2024 than he did in previous years. However, he worked his way into the top five on the Stage 1 […]

Michael McDowell Has Surprisingly Strong Record at Indianapolis Even in Weaker Cars

Michael McDowell continued his trend of posting the best qualifying performances of his career with an eighth-place qualifying run for today's Brickyard 400. Amongst Ford drivers, only defending champion and hottest driver on the circuit, Ryan Blaney, outqualified him. McDowell is rather difficult to evaluate at Indianapolis because when the NASCAR Cup Series last raced […]

Corey LaJoie's Qualifying Speed and Pocono Pace May Reap Dividends at Indianapolis

After Corey LaJoie wrecked Kyle Busch at Pocono, many fans were outraged that he wasn't penalized. The move seemed to confirm the popular narrative that LaJoie was never good and is overwhelmingly the worst driver on the circuit. Fans who once viewed him as an underdog now frequently consider him an ARCA-level talent because they […]

Jimmie Johnson Makes Brickyard Return, but Don't Expect Much

NASCAR's return to the Indianapolis oval also marks the return of the Brickyard 400's second-winningest driver, Jimmie Johnson, for the first time since 2019. Although his four wins are only one shy of Jeff Gordon's five, Johnson's record tended to be hit or miss as he either contended for the win or was completely out […]

Carson Hocevar’s Lack of Brickyard Experience May Hinder His Usual Speed

Carson Hocevar has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit as he tends to have an unusually narrow range between his best and worst performances and he also seems to be equally good on any kind of track, which is particularly unusual for a driver of his age […]

Ty Dillon Makes Richard Childress Comeback at an Inopportune Moment

After several years racing almost exclusively for second-rate and third-rate teams, Ty Dillon is making his first start for his grandfather, Richard Childress's team since 2015. Unfortunately for him, he is doing so at a time when their cars are arguably slower than they have been since at least 2019. Dillon has been assigned crew […]

Ross Chastain Likely to Play It Safe at Indianapolis While on Playoff Bubble

Ross Chastain continues to perform well albeit in a very low-key manner as his baseline statistics do not capture the level of his performance. Nonetheless, Chastain now sits on the playoff bubble after crashes in two of the last three races. Although he has the speed to lead at times, it seems his cars go […]

Kyle Busch's Poor Season Performance Will Likely Outweigh Past Brickyard Success in 700th Start

By some metrics, Kyle Busch is one of NASCAR's most successful drivers at Indianapolis, as his 324 laps led there rank third all time and first among active drivers. However, Busch has been extremely hit-or-miss there, as all but 42 laps led came during his peak period of 2015-19 when he won back-to-back and cored […]

Harrison Burton Fast in Qualifying, but Will Probably Run Poorly Due at Indianapolis

Despite collecting his best career finish of third on the Indianapolis road course as a rookie in 2022, Harrison Burton has never competed at the Indianapolis oval so there is little to use to project his performance. While Team Penske is on a roll over the past month and Burton qualified 16th yesterday--giving him his […]

Despite Lack of Indianapolis Experience, Strong Pocono Run May Carry over for Josh Berry

Josh Berry makes his first start on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval in today's Brickyard 400. Since he did not become a regular in any NASCAR national series until after the oval had been replaced by the IMS road course, he had never made a start on the oval until yesterday's NASCAR Xfinity Series race, […]

Martin Truex Jr Won Stage 1 at Pocono, but Foiled by Strategy Yet Again

Martin Truex Jr won Stage 1 at Pocono yesterday after passing polesitter Ty Gibbs for the lead on the lap 18 restart, but he never saw the lead again after losing it on the ensuing stage break caution. Truex remained in the top 10 throughout the race, but his crew chief, James Small, continued his […]

Denny Hamlin Finished Second at Pocono but Matched Ryan Blaney in Performance

Denny Hamlin is the winningest NASCAR Cup Series driver at Pocono with seven wins, and he nearly added an eighth win to his ledger yesterday but came up a second short to Ryan Blaney to finish second in The Great American Getaway 400. Regardless, you could argue that Hamlin had the stronger race as he […]

Ryan Blaney Scores Penske's First Pocono Win Since 2011

Ryan Blaney claimed his second win of the season in yesterday's The Great American Getaway 400 at Pocono Raceway, his first win at the track since 2017 and Team Penske's first win there since Brad Keselowski won in 2011. Although Blaney only took the lead on a caution flag pit stop and never took the […]

Ty Gibbs Had Speed at Pocono, but Hindered by Strategy, Speeding Penalty, and Sour Engine

Ty Gibbs won his second career pole for yesterday's Pocono race but his racecraft and his dueling ability aren't yet as strong as his raw speed, so it isn't surprising that he got passed for the lead twice in the race, first by Martin Truex Jr on lap 18 and more unexpectedly by rookie Josh […]

Daniel Suárez Looks to Overcome Mid-Season Slump at One of His Better Tracks

Despite Daniel Suárez's heroic win at Atlanta, he has had a lowkey subpar season since then. His speed percentile of 39.16 is 30 percentage points slower than his Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain's 69.51; this is the second-largest speed differential between two full-time Cup Series teammates behind only Kyle Busch and Austin Dillon. However, Pocono […]

Daniel Hemric Likely Too Slow to Contend at Pocono Without a Strategy Play

Kaulig Racing has badly struggled in the NASCAR Cup Series this year, as Daniel Hemric drives the Next Gen car full-time for the first time in the Cup Series with several drivers rotating the second car. Hemric currently is the second-slowest full-timer in the Cup Series with a speed percentile of 24.11, only ahead of […]

Despite Lackluster Pocono Record, Justin Haley May Be a Worthy Underdog Pick

Justin Haley has been one of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season's quietest revelations. He and new crew chief, Chris Lawson, have taken a once-disreputable Rick Ware Racing and turned them into regular contenders for lead lap finishes, even giving the team its first top-10 on non-drafting ovals at Darlington and Gateway. They've also had […]

Ross Chastain's Improved Racecraft Canceled Out by Trackhouse Racing's Decline in Speed

In one sense, Ross Chastain has markedly improved, as he is causing fewer wrecks than he used to and is beating his Trackhouse Racing teammate, Daniel Suárez, substantially worse in both speed and finishes than he ever has before. However, it's easy to argue that Chastain is underachieving because he sits 12th in points despite […]

Despite Last Year's Top 10, Mediocrity Likely for Harrison Burton at Pocono

While Harrison Burton got an improbable eighth-place finish in last year's NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono, considerably ahead of all three of his Team Penske quasi-teammates, don't expect him to repeat the feat in this weekend's race. Burton did not run nearly as well as his finish implied last year, as his average running […]

Ryan Blaney Not Great at Pocono, but Recent Momentum May Help Him

Although Ryan Blaney scored his first win at Pocono Raceway in 2017, it hasn't typically been one of his best tracks, as he's only led 51 laps in his careeer there. Amongst the tracks where Blaney has 10 or more NASCAR Cup Series starts, he has only led fewer laps at Darlington. Additionally, he has […]

Michael McDowell Recovers From Lap Down to Finish Fifth at Chicago Street Course

Michael McDowell got trapped a lap down after an early pit stop to switch to wet weather tires, but made an improbable comeback to finish fifth in yesterday's race at the Chicago Street Course. He significantly benefited from the crash that took out Christopher Bell and Martin Truex, Jr. but his bigger advantage was his […]