RADIO
Week 11 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the 10th week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?
Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.
Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 11. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?
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Tommy Devito, New York Giants
Last Week: QB7
For the second week in a row, the Giants started rookie Tommy Devito at QB. After throwing for just 86 yards in his first start (albeit with two touchdown passes), DeVito had a much better second start against Washington, going 18-for-26 with 246 yards and three touchdowns.
His performance helped the Giants end a three-game losing streak, but I'm not taking a lot from this. The Commanders have one of the NFL's worst pass defenses, allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing QBs than any other team in the NFL this season. That helps explain DeVito's strong showing on Sunday.
I do think DeVito's better than he showed against the Raiders and Cowboys, but we've got to take this Week 11 performance with a grain of salt. This is a defense that let Desmond Ridder throw for over 300 yards once this season.
Verdict: I want to like DeVito. He's a fun story. In the end though, I'm not pinning the hopes of any of my fantasy teams on the Giants backup quarterback.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers
Last Week: RB2
Maybe it's not quite right to call Jaylen Warren's Week 11 performance a surprise considering it was his second 100-yard rushing game in a row and third game in a row with at least 100 yards from scrimmage. Still, I really just wanted to write about this backfield.
Pittsburgh was Najee Harris' team when this season began, but Warren has just flat-out been outperforming Harris. Take this week for example. Harris had 12 carries to Warren's nine, but Warren had 129 yards and a touchdown while Harris had just 35 yards.
It's clear who the best Steelers back is, but that doesn't necessarily mean we can just pencil Warren in as a fantasy RB1 play going forward. Harris is still siphoning off a lot of touches, requiring Warren to be incredibly efficient with his opportunities. Right now, he is, as he's had over six yards per carry in three straight games. The concern is that before this stretch, he ran for under four yards per carry in five of his first seven games this year.
Verdict: I like Warren as an RB2 play, but his ceiling remains capped by the volume Harris is getting. Still, there's upside here with the Steelers firing OC Matt Canada this week, which could signal some changes in usage going forward.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last Week: WR1
Calvin Ridley was supposed to change the game for the Jaguars and back in Week 1, it looked like he was going to. In that game, Ridley caught eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown.
He hasn't had that many receptions in a game since, and coming into Week 11 he'd found the end zone just one more time. Then came this week's game, with Ridley exploding for his best game as a Jag. The 28-year-old wide receiver was targeted nine times, catching seven passes for 103 yards and two touchdowns. He also added an 18-yard carry.
So, now what? Ridley doubled his touchdown total in one game, which really speaks more to his season-long struggle to find the end zone than it does to anything really coming of this game. He's a talented player, but with Zay Jones finally healthy again too, I don't see Ridley suddenly being a fantasy WR1.
Verdict: Great game for Ridley, but I still view him as being somewhere on the WR2/3 border going forward. I don't suddenly foresee an increase in end-zone usage.
Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills
Last Week: WR6
The Bills changed offensive coordinators this week and Khalil Shakir instantly saw the benefits of that move. The second-year wideout caught three of his four targets for 115 yards and a touchdown.
I like Shakir a lot. He's an exciting player who adds another dimension to this Bills offense and I do think it's at least a little bit notable that in Joe Brady's first game as OC, Shakir led the Bills in receiving yards while Stefon Diggs had 27 yards and Gabe Davis wasn't targeted.
Note I said "a little bit notable" there. Shakir obviously won't break off an 81-yard touchdown each game. I expect him to be third or fourth on the team in targets most weeks, which really just...well, puts him right where he was before in terms of fantasy outlook.
Verdict: Shakir might have some more big games, but he remains a WR4/5 play because of a limit to how much volume he'll usually see.
Stone Smartt, Los Angeles Chargers
Last Week: TE2
We don't really have to talk about this one for long. Los Angeles Chargers tight end Stone Smartt was the overall TE2 this week, but it happened because of one play, as Smartt caught a 51-yard touchdown. It was just his third catch of the season.
I do think the situation is just a tad more complicated than just "this was a fluke play for a guy with just two catches all season before this game." Smartt was targeted three times, which now makes for six targets over the last two games for him. He had just four targets all season before these two games.
So while fantasy managers don't need to go out and add Smartt after this game, there might be at least some reason to keep an eye on him based on this recent increase in opportunities.
Verdict: There's no reason to go add Stone Smartt off waivers this week, but in a TE-premium league, you might at least hit that little star beside his name and put him on your watch list.
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