RADIO
Andrew Le looks at the most disappointing star players in fantasy baseball from April of 2018. He advises whether to buy, sell, or hold based on track record and future projections.
We've turned the calendar to May and, amazingly, 2018's baseball season is already 1/6 complete. We've seen some surprising team starts (Phillies, Pirates) and a few out-of-the-blue players rising to fantasy relevance (Christian Villanueva, Jarlin Garcia). But we're all wondering the same thing: where in the world is John Lackey?
Nothing is worse in fantasy than watching our early-round fantasy studs crawl out the gates. We spent hard earned picks or auction dollars on these stallions and we expect them to perform! Unfortunately, baseball players endure troughs and peaks like the rest of us with unpredictable timing and no regard to fantasy impact.
Today, we'll form a roster of disappointing, high-cost players (ADP below 60). We'll also list a handful of lesser owned replacement guys (< 60%) that could be salve while we test our patience. The recommendation is to hold tight on these players or try to swing a trade if you're really bearish. It's not advisable to cut bait on established assets after an early slump, so we'll try to find silver lining amidst the frustration. Ladies and gentlemen, we give you the All-April Bummer Team!
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April Duds, May Studs?
Housekeeping items: all stats as of April 30, we'll overlook players that have missed time with injuries.
CATCHER
Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs (ADP 51)
.264 AVG, 1 HR, 14 R+RBI, 0 SB
In fairness to Willson Contreras, no catcher outside of Gary Sanchez deserved to be drafted in the top-100. Last season, Sanchez was the only backstop that finished as a top-150 player overall. Through a season-long grind, catchers don't get nearly enough at-bats to meaningfully effect runs and RBI while most of the HR benefit gets washed away by a mediocre average.
Contreras may be no different, following a pattern of hyped catchers who eventually become indistinguishable commodities (Wilson Ramos, Welington Castillo, Brian McCann). His power is lagging his three-year track record and a .154 ISO (.208 career) suggests the long balls will eventually come. He's hitting fly balls at a high clip (40.3%) and the 3.4% HR/FB is artificially low. With probably another 350 PAs to go for Contreras, he might still have a shot at 15-20 HRs and as long as the average doesn't dip towards the low-.200s he's a fine set-and-forget catcher.
Pinch Hitters: If you're trying to time Contreras' upswing, Francisco Cervelli (59% owned) is batting .471 over the last week and is over halfway towards his season-best homer total with four. The low average and part-time roles may make you nauseous, but Robinson Chirinos (13%) and Jorge Alfaro (5%) are nearly unowned and reasonable bets for power.
FIRST BASE
Edwin Encarnacion, Cleveland Indians (ADP 58)
.160 AVG, 6 HRs, 20 R+RBI, 0 SB
At 35 years old, after a rough start it's natural to wonder if dependable Edwin Encarnacion is running on fumes. The power's been there, but that's about it. Encarnacion is striking out 29.5% of PAs and his BB/K (0.24) is nearly a third of his career average. He's apparently pressing, swinging at 31.3% of pitches outside the zone.
The good news is many-fold. Encarnacion is a notorious slow starter, a career .745 OPS in April is his lowest of all months. By June, his OPS rises to .948 and remains healthy through the end of the season. Encarnacion is playing every day in the heart of a potent lineup and his BABIP (.164) is over 100 points below his norm. His Hard% is down (31.3%) but if his season arc progresses as expected, the .190 ISO should settle about 40-50 points higher. Don't give up yet on Old Man Ed.
Pinch Hitters: Encarnacion's teammate Yonder Alonso (44% owned) is a logical add in case E5 sits. Alonso has followed up his 28-homer performance last season with eight already this year. C.J. Cron (34%) profiles very similar to Encarnacion and has compiled seven dingers and 33 R+RBI. If Tyler Austin (.991 OPS) stays hot after his suspension, the 27% ownership is sure to rise.
SECOND BASE
Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins (ADP 37)
.248 AVG, 4 HRs, 26 R+RBI, 2 SB
Brian Dozier hasn't been awful, but of the nine preseason top-100 second basemen, his performance has been the least acceptable. Dozier's blazing start (four homers in first five games) has fizzled drastically. Since his 21-game hitting streak halted, Dozier has hit .100 in his last 30 at-bats. He's also homerless since April 4 and has only two extra-base hits over his last 10 games.
Dozier's patience (0.55 BB/K) has been stable through the ups and downs and there's no concern about his swing or contact rates. He's been a slow starter with a modest career .691 OPS in April. As a fly ball hitter, Dozier's averaged 32 round-trippers since 2014 so the current 10.8% HR/FB will likely rise. His wheels are one concern, Dozier's speed score has fallen to 3.4, considerably below his historical 5.3. Dozier's reliable power should still make him a useful fantasy asset, but the steals variable may determine if he meets his expected return.
Pinch Hitters: Howie Kendrick (12% owned) is batting atop the Nationals lineup with a .375 average and two homers over his last seven games. Jose Peraza (51%) is a threat to swipe 20 bags and hitting a respectable .288. Forgive my ignorance, but someone named Daniel Robertson (45%) keeps popping up in my screens, slashing a robust .333/.476/.561 with a 0.84 BB/K.
THIRD BASE
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (ADP 32)
.259 AVG, 1 HR, 23 R+RBI, 3 SB
Alex Bregman was arguably the most touted rising fantasy star during the offseason, so predictably, he's off to a pedestrian start. At the prevailing numbers, Bregman has average exit velocity (88.2 MPH), Barrels/PA (3.1%) and Hard% (30.4%). The fruits of these numbers are only nine extra-base hits and a weak ISO of .102.
Under the hood are encouraging signs. Bregman holds an MLB seventh-best 1.25 BB/K. Aside from the puny 2.8% HR/FB, his batted-ball qualities are nearly identical year-over-year. Although the exit velocity isn't much to write home about, Bregman's 2018 EV is higher than last season's 87.5 MPH. The excellent on-base ability is reflected in a serviceable .339 wOBA. Even better, his .372 xwOBA indicates the numbers could be much better. Bregman endured extreme hot and cold spells in 2017, so the peripheral data suggests the frozen start is temporary and a rebound is on the horizon.
Pinch Hitters: Since Matt Davidson (62% owned) no longer qualifies, Ryon Healy (16%) is back from the disabled list and has cranked three bombs in four games. He hit .271 with 25 homers in 2017. Jeimer Candelario (34%) leads the majors with 14 runs scored and is hitting .373 over the last two weeks. Eduardo Escobar (38%) won't blow anyone away but has been reliable with counting stats and offers workable pop and average.
SHORTSTOP
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians (ADP 21)
.245 AVG, 4 HRs, 28 R+RBI, 5 SB
This section belonged to Corey Seager before his brutal injury so we won't torment Dodger fans and his fantasy owners. We'll defer to Francisco Lindor. While his headline numbers look manageable, he's the preseason top-100 shortstop that's underperformed most egregiously. Managers expected better than the .245 average, and a .288 BABIP doesn't flag any bad luck. Lindor's K-rate is 20.6%, which is not advisable. He's chasing pitches outside the zone and his Contact% has collapsed from 86.3% to 78.1%.
Fortunately, Lindor probably has unlimited leash in Cleveland to work out his kinks. The steals are providing temporary cover for his negative batted-ball results. Despite a 41.9% Hard%, his .164 ISO pales to last year's .232. The worst case scenario is Lindor reverting to his 15-homer profile of 2016, but as an ascending player we'll speculate no such thing. Assume for now the slow start has manifested into spiraling plate discipline and the corresponding strikeouts. However, since April 21, he's boosted his slash from .208/.274/.351 to .245/.331/.409. Positive signs.
Pinch Hitters: Nick Ahmed (10% owned) has six extra-bats hits in his last 27 at-bats and is up to five homers this season. Baseball's top second base prospect Scott Kingery (50%) qualifies at multiple positions and has mostly played shortstop. Playing time and consistency are concerns but he offers intriguing power-speed potential. Dansby Swanson (54%), a former top prospect, is batting .287 with a tolerable .766 OPS.
OUTFIELD
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees (ADP 8)
.230 AVG, 5 HRs, 35 R+RBI, 1 SB
Giancarlo Stanton, welcome to New York, where the cheers are louder and the boos are deeper. Chalk it up to switching leagues, changing cities or constantly dealing with headlines like these, but the perennial slugger had a forgettable April. Even during the Yankees recent nine-game winning streak, Stanton went yard only once and mustered three RBI. Always a free-swinger, Stanton's 33.6% strikeout rate would be a career high.
Owners should relax. Stanton's 45.1% Hard% is higher than last season's 59-homer campaign (38.9%). The issue has been too many groundballs and a depressed 22.7% HR/FB (his career HR/FB is a ridiculous 26.9%), his FB/LD exit velocity leads the majors (102.8 MPH). Stanton's .195 ISO shouldn't last long, his career .283 is the league-best mark since 2010. The strikeouts may linger, but Stanton's batted-balls will come around. It'd surprise no one if he went on a patented tear and finished comfortably over 40 homers.
Marcell Ozuna, St. Louis Cardinals (ADP 47)
.250 AVG, 2 HRs, 25 R+RBI, 0 SB
Stanton's former teammate Marcell Ozuna also joined allegedly greener pastures in 2018. But to-date, he's been a major disappointment with a meager .601 OPS. His plate discipline has collapsed to a 0.11 BB/K and he's swinging more than ever (36.1% O-Swing%, 13.4% SwStr%). Last year's fortuitous .355 BABIP has normalized to .313, leading to a 62-point crash in batting average.
Ozuna's problem in 2018 has been the 8.7% HR/FB. Never a predominant fly ball hitter, his FB% has fallen from 33.5% to 28.0%. Obviously, these existing trends dramatically decrease his chances of going yard. He's still hitting the ball hard (46.3%), but the paltry .083 ISO hasn't complied. To swat more homers, Ozuna needs to bring his FB/LD exit velocity of 93.5 MPH closer to last year's 96.4 MPH. It's still premature to panic, but to avoid being a regrettable early decision for fantasy drafters, Ozuna needs to adjust his approach at the dish.
Justin Upton, Los Angeles Angels (ADP 49)
.229 AVG, 4 HRs, 28 R+RBI, 2 SB
It's almost unfair to discuss Justin Upton when it comes to small sample sizes. As a faithful Upton owner over the years, I've embraced his epic streakiness. Already this season, Upton has experienced stretches of both 7-for-17 (.412) and 2-for-25 (.080). Admittedly, Upton was more down than up in April, but at least we've been on this roller coaster before.
Throughout his career, Upton has struck out a lot (24.9%) but boasts a strong BABIP when he makes contact (.326). His .273 BABIP this season points to better days ahead. His Hard% is hovering stubbornly at 35.8%, resulting in an unimpressive 11.8% HR/FB and .147 ISO. His year-on-year exit velocity is stable, but the difference is a lower LD% that should self-correct. Although he's only stolen two bases, his speed score of 4.4 is fine. Considering Upton's polar tendencies, managers should maintain confidence he still has a realistic shot at 25 HRs and double-digit steals.
Pinch Hitters: There's something for everyone in the outfield FA pool. Plenty of boring veterans like Nick Markakis (48% owned, 4 HRs, .876 OPS), Shin-Soo Choo (47%, 5 HRs) or Denard Span (10%, 35 R+RBI) have gas in the tank. For targeted categories like steals, Michael A. Taylor (46%) is 9-for-9 in stolen base attempts and Mallex Smith (28%) is batting .329 with five swipes. Power-hungry owners can look to Franchy Cordero (16%) who's drilled six homers in 67 at-bats or Scott Schebler (21%) who hammered 30 bombs last season. For balanced profiles, Leonys Martin (12%) and Teoscar Hernandez (53%) are also palatable options.
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 7)
1-4, 2.84 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.95 K/9
It's very strange to find Clayton Kershaw on a list of underperformers, even if it's only been a month. Although he's posted quality starts in 4-of-6 outings and the losses are more a product of the Dodger's shortcomings, Kershaw has been a far cry from the legendary ace we've seen the last 10 years.
A perusal of Kershaw's Statcast and batted-ball data are reassuring. His Hard% is in-line with the past three seasons and his Soft% is actually top-10 in the majors. Where he's been burnt are line drives (25.5%) that are well above his normal rate (19.9%). He's still amongst the best in the league at exit velocity (84.3 MPH). Kershaw's fastball velocity is down so far, resulting in a poor -2.06 wFB/C, but the strikeouts are still present. Nothing in his peripherals hint a rapid decline is imminent. If the wins start rolling in, the fantasy value should rise accordingly.
Yu Darvish, Chicago Cubs (ADP 48)
0-2, 5.26 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 10.17 K/9
Yu Darvish has gotten off to an ominous start in 2018. Combined with the woes of 2017 and it's fair to worry about his diminishing skill set. He's 31, walking a ton of batters (4.56 BB/9) and the once-feared slider is getting pounded. Alarmingly, his SwStr% is only 9.4% this season, below a career mark of 12.3%.
So what's there to like? Well, he's probably not this bad. A 4.21 FIP at least implies a bit of misfortune. Even though the swing-rates are down, his K/9 has held sturdy. He's top-20 in lowest Hard% (26.4%) but has encountered tough luck with a 24.6% LD%. Darvish's current 66.1% LOB% is a full 10 points lower than his usual trend. The root of his struggles are the walks, which have limited his ability to stay in ballgames. Conquer the free passes, and his talent could take over. Darvish fanned out eight and walked only two in his last outing over six innings. That's a promising start.
Bullpen Arms: Ivan Nova (35% owned) has logged four straight quality starts, while teammate Trevor Williams (52%) has yet to allow more than two runs in any start. The Nick Pivetta bandwagon (45%) has emptied since his last outing but he still owns a solid 9.27 K/9. Other strikeout artists like Mike Foltynewicz (50%, 10.97 K/9), Caleb Smith (8%, 12.87) and Sean Newcomb (26%, 11.06) won't kill your ratios. For veterans, Tyson Ross (37%) has pitched well in 4-of-6 starts and Eduardo Rodriguez (45%) is 3-0 in five tries for the Red Sox.
RELIEF PITCHER
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (ADP 36)
5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 3 SVs, 2 BSVs, 11.17 K/9
The Dodgers early challenges are epitomized by Kenley Jansen. Anointed fantasy's best closer this offseason, Jansen has been a train wreck. He's allowed at least one baserunner in 10-of-11 appearances this season and his 5.99 FIP actually suggests he's been worse that the headline returns. His strikeouts are down, walks up and HR/FB sits at an ugly 20.0%.
Despite this, manager Dave Roberts is sticking with his guy. Conceivably based on his track record, more opportunities will allow him to right the ship. But his fastball velocity is down and the slider isn't sliding, so those areas need correction. If he rediscovers his groove and harnesses his control, we might find ourselves with the strikeout-savvy, ground ball-happy closer we all remember. But if his FB% stays at 50% and Jansen continues getting hammered (33.3% Hard%), the ninth inning slog in Los Angeles could persist and Jansen would be a miserable return on investment for fantasy owners.
Bullpen Arms: Saves are a rotating door, but Joakim Soria (45%) looks to be the White Sox closer of choice. In lieu of the saves lottery, owners could also opt for sturdy ratios. Carl Edwards Jr. (28%) possesses an absurd 15.15 K/9 and 0.66 ERA. Chad Green (31%) enjoys a career 12.27 K/9 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.
