Champ or Chump: Carter Jensen and Nolan McLean Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

Are Carter Jensen and Nolan McLean fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick takes a deep dive into their 2025 fantasy baseball value.

We've reached September, and any reinforcements for real and fantasy teams have to come from the minors. There's still plenty of time for rookies to make an impact, so don't give up on your baseball teams just because football is starting.

Carter Jensen is a 22-year-old catcher with an intriguing skill set. He's scheduled to make his MLB debut for the Royals tonight. Nolan McLean, age 24, has been a revelation for the pitching-needy Mets. His performance to date doesn't match his minor league numbers, but there's reason to believe he's reached a new level.

Here's a closer look at what these two might offer in fantasy:

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Carter Jensen (C, Kansas City Royals)

1% Rostered

Jensen hasn't generated the buzz of other top prospects, but he ranks 69th on MLB Pipeline's top-100 prospect list and 66th on FanGraphs. The former third-round pick will be playing for his hometown team, making him a feel-good story if nothing else.

The scouting report on Jensen suggests he'll hit while sticking at catcher. Here's what FanGraphs says:

It's not sold on his hit tool, but league-average power with playable defense is more than most catchers deliver. MiLB.com is more optimistic despite a slightly lower overall ranking:

A league-average hit tool makes a huge difference, giving Jensen plus power to go with solid defense behind the plate. This author is inclined to believe the MiLB.com report because Jansen has an outstanding eye, helping his hit tool play up. He also has a high baseball IQ that allows him to steal a few bases despite his lack of speed.

Jensen reached the High Minors in 2024 with Double-A (Northwest Arkansas). He slashed a mediocre .233/.300/.480 with eight homers and a steal over 170 plate appearances (PAs). That doesn't look great, but a .267 BABIP suppressed his batting line. His 8.8 percent BB% was also solid, though his 26.5 percent K% was a little high. He was passive at the plate at times.

Jensen was asked to work on that passivity in the offseason, and his offensive results improved. He returned to Northwest Arkansas to begin 2025 and hit .292/.360/.420 with six homers and seven steals (one caught stealing) in 308 PAs. His BB% improved to 9.7 percent, while his K% also improved to 22.7 percent. His .368 BABIP may have been an overcorrection, but Jensen was promoted to Triple-A (Omaha).

He was sensational at the higher level, slashing .288/.404/.647 with 14 homers and three steals in 184 PAs. Jensen's K% jumped to 28.3 percent, but his BB% spiked to 16.3 percent, too. Jensen's 21.8 percent chase rate was outstanding, suggesting an advanced plate approach ready for big league pitching. He wasn't caught stealing, so he should run occasionally with the Royals.

Jensen's HR/FB exploded from 8.3 percent at Double-A to 35 percent at Triple-A. Omaha is an extremely hitter-friendly environment, so we shouldn't expect quite that much pop as a Royal. However, Jensen's 94 mph average exit velocity ranks fourth among Triple-A hitters who've seen at least 750 pitches, while his .525 expected slugging percentage ranks 10th. Jensen has power.

Similarly, Jensen had stark home/away splits at Triple-A. In Omaha, he hit .404/.534/.877 with seven homers in 73 PAs. On the road, he hit .219/.318/.510 with seven homers in 111 PAs. His home line was insane, but his homer output was even, and he still had an .828 OPS on the road. Only seven catchers have bested that mark this season, and three of them have 150 PAs or fewer.

Playing time is the biggest question, but you have to think the Royals wouldn't call him up if they didn't intend to use him. He won't displace Salvador Perez, but Perez gets time at 1B and DH that could let Jensen join him in the lineup. Jensen could also see DH time while Perez catches since the team is still carrying Luke Maile.

Jensen has a great eye, raw power potential, and a history of stealing bases. He should be a viable fantasy option if the Royals play this Champ.

Nolan McLean (SP, New York Mets)

61% Rostered

McLean is 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA in 20 1/3 innings pitched (IP), becoming the first Mets pitcher in franchise history to win his first three starts. McLean's 2.70 xFIP and 2.58 xERA suggest he's more than smoke and mirrors, and his 28.8 percent K% is exciting from a fantasy perspective.

Coming up, McLean was nicknamed Cowboy Ohtani because he was a two-way player at Oklahoma State University. However, he struck out 52.2 percent of the time at Double-A (Binghamton) in 2024, and he was never well-regarded as a batter. The Mets pulled the plug on McLean the hitter, allowing him to concentrate exclusively on pitching.

Scouts like McLean the pitcher. Here's what FanGraphs thinks:

McLean has velocity and a full assortment of pitches. His command is below-average but improving rapidly since he became a full-time pitcher. His MiLB.com scouting report largely concurs:

This one likes McLean's raw stuff more, but we're once again looking at a full arsenal with questionable command. McLean's MiLB history supports that assessment, as he has struggled with walks while excelling in every other aspect.

McLean reached the High Minors in 2024 as a two-way player with decent numbers on the mound. He posted a 4.19 ERA and 4.02 xFIP in 81 2/3 IP. His 22.8 percent K% and 9.1 percent BB% were pedestrian, and his 46.9 percent GB% was more good than great.

McLean took a major step forward in his first season as a full-time pitcher. He posted a 1.37 ERA and 3.24 xFIP in 26 1/3 IP with a 27.8 percent K% and 58.7 percent GB%. McLean's 11.1 percent BB% was a bit high, but the overall package was effective, and he was promoted to Triple-A (Syracuse).

Facing more advanced competition barely affected McLean. He posted a 2.78 ERA and 3.93 xFIP across 87 1/3 IP for Syracuse. His 27 percent K%, 53.5 percent GB%, and 10.6 percent BB% were all comparable to his work for Binghamton.

McLean has been even better as a Met. He has a 28.8 percent K% against a 5.5 percent BB%, dominating the opposition. His 68.1 percent GB% limits the damage when opposing hitters manage to put the ball in play. Everything is working.

For McLain, 'everything' is a six-pitch mix. His most-thrown pitch is his slider, which he uses as a fastball with a 7.4 percent swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) and 58 percent zone%. It might be his worst pitch. Batters are hitting .250 with a .500 slugging percentage against it, and their expected stats are even higher with a .318 xBA and .673 xSLG.

His next pitch is a sinker, which is terrible for strikeouts (4.2 percent SwStr%) but gets McLean ahead with a 61.1 percent zone% and induces grounders at an 83.3 percent clip. McLean also features a four-seamer that's much better for strikeouts (17.1 percent SwStr%), still gets McLean ahead (61 percent zone%), and is nearly as good for grounders (80 percent GB%).

His heater's 2,293 rotations per minute (RPM) spin rate is average, but only 86 percent of that is active spin that changes the baseball's trajectory. Its effective spin rate is low, inducing weak contact on the ground. Such fastballs usually don't generate swing-and-miss, but McLean's has been an exception thus far.

McLean's signature pitch is his curve, which leads baseball with an average spin rate of 3,267 RPM. It's seldom a strike with a 21.6 percent Zone%, but its 19.6 percent SwStr% and 37.5 percent chase rate make it an excellent putaway pitch. His changeup has been an even better wipeout offering with a 17.6 percent SwStr%, 58.8 percent Zone%, and 42.9 percent chase rate.

McLean's final pitch is a cutter with a 16.7 percent SwStr%, 88.9 percent zone%, and 50 percent chase rate. He doesn't throw his cutter or changeup very often, potentially giving him further upside with some pitch mix changes.

McLean has the stuff of an ace, so the only question is how much leash the Mets will give him. He had 109 2/3 IP last season, so the Mets probably want to limit him to 150 IP or so. He's already at 134 IP this year, suggesting workload limitations.

Luckily for fantasy managers, the Mets probably don't have that luxury. Clay Holmes looks visibly tired, Kodai Senga was quoted in a recent interview saying "his body isn't moving the way he needs it to," and Sean Manaea has been terrible after his first trip through the batting order. David Peterson has also come back to earth after a hot start.

The Mets will probably ease off on McLain if and when they clinch a playoff spot, but they have to lean on him until then. This Champ should be rostered in nearly all leagues as a result.

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