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A.J. Green is in my list of tier one receivers. For me it’s not even a question, Green is elite and deserves to be in there. I will acknowledge that my list of tier one receivers is deeper than it’s ever been this year at eight, and he’s definitely in the lower half of those eight but I still expect excellent numbers from Green almost every single week. For the time being, Green is coming at a nice discount in drafts with an ADP at the end of the 2nd round in 12 team leagues.
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As an A.J. Green owner last year I definitely understand those that don’t want to touch him this year. He was playing hurt and had two separate games finishing with a zero. People are understandably worried about whether that could happen again. Green tried to rush back from his initial turf toe injury and it didn’t work out. As a result he missed three full games and barely played in another. When he came back he may not have been 100% but he sure played like it because over the next 9 games he averaged 92 yards and 5 touchdowns. In Week 16 he was shut down by the Broncos secondary, among the very best in the league with Chris Harris Jr and Aqib Talib, while only playing 26 snaps due to an apparent arm injury. Finally in Week 17 he had a respectable 82 yards but also fumbled and suffered a concussion on the same play in the 4th quarter.
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So what do we make of this? I’m going to take the game against the Falcons out of consideration given that he only played 6 snaps. I think that is fair. In 12 games he put up 1041 yards and 6 touchdowns. Over a full season that is 1,388 yards and 8 scores. That is right in line with his 2012-13 totals. In fact, it’s an identical yards per game to what he averaged in those 32 games the previous two seasons. He had fewer touchdowns but 8 is nothing to complain about. This all coming from an A.J. Green that wasn’t 100% for most of the year.
It was definitely a tough year for Green but he excelled when on the field. In fact according to Pro Football Focus, Green led the league in yards per route run. That shouldn’t be much of a surprise given his production compared to missed time. Given this information there is no reason to think Green won’t produce at an elite level as long as he is on the field.
Can we expect A.J. Green to be on the field for all 16 games in 2015? That is the pressing matter that scares away many potential drafters. According to Bengals.com writer Geoff Hobson Green's nagging injuries from last year are well past him. That’s great news. Given his excellent health record prior to 2014 (One missed game in three seasons) I am more than happy to grab Green at his current ADP. I would recommend him as early as 16th or 17th overall.
A good fantasy football player is able to move past any frustration Green may have caused last year. There are definitely minor injury concerns but he’s no riskier than Julio Jones or Calvin Johnson who seem to be held in higher regard. Expect numbers similar to his ‘12-13 numbers where he averaged 1,388 yards and 11 touchdowns. Good value is hard to find in the first couple of rounds but there is no doubt in my mind that A.J. Green is a steal at his current ADP of 22nd.
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