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Welcome back RotoBallers to our Week 7 matchup analysis and Start Em, Sit Em column for fantasy football.
For those who are not familiar, each week I'll be analyzing every game from the Sunday slate, helping you optimize your fantasy lineups and take down your opponent. Be sure to check back regularly for any updates on player injuries or other pertinent information. Special thanks to PFF, RotoViz, RotoWire, Football Outsiders, FantasyPros, and Add More Funds for providing valuable information.
This year I will be covering the entire Sunday slate of games, and we will have separate articles for the Thursday Night Football and Monday Night Football games. Be sure to read those as well. So join me as I help get your fantasy teams off to a strong start. If you have any additional lineup questions, follow me on Twitter @FAmmiranteTFJ and feel free to ask away. Let's get on to the matchups!
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Matchups Analysis - 1:00 ET Games
New York Jets at New England Patriots
Spread: Patriots -7
Total: 42.5
Pace: Jets (5th) vs. Patriots (19th)
Scheme: Jets (54% Pass, 46% Run) vs. Patriots (61% Pass, 39% Run)
Jets Off. DVOA: -38.7% Pass DVOA (32nd), -15.1% Rush DVOA (21st)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 7.4% Pass DVOA (16th), -16.3% Rush DVOA (9th)
Jets Def. DVOA: 18.5% Pass DVOA (23rd), -12.8% Rush DVOA (17th)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 4.2% Pass DVOA (23rd), -16.9% Rush DVOA (23rd)
Matchups We Love:
Jakobi Meyers (WR, NE)
The Patriots have a 24.75 implied total, which ranks 10th in the NFL for Week 7. The Patriots have been pass-heavy in neutral game scripts this season. Meyers has posted a 25.12% target share, which ranks 17th in the NFL. While he's currently WR34 in PPR formats, he ranks 12th with 36 receptions. Meyers is held back by his lack of touchdowns, but he does have four red-zone targets. Perhaps he can finally find pay dirt in this spot. We can project the Patriots' offense to have success in this spot, so Meyers looks like an appealing WR3.
Matchups We Hate:
Zach Wilson (QB, NYJ)
The Jets have been among the most run-heavy teams in neutral game scripts this season. They have a 17.75 implied total, which is the third-lowest on the slate. Wilson is currently ranked as QB30, completing only 57.3 percent of his passes at 6.5 yards per attempt with four touchdowns and nine interceptions. Patriots' head coach Bill Belichick always seems to make life difficult on rookie quarterbacks. Obviously, you're not considering Wilson in standard-sized leagues, but he also looks like a terrible option in SuperFlex formats. This is a terrible matchup for the rookie.
Corey Davis (WR, NYJ)
Another thing that Belichick really excels at is taking away his opponent's best player, which is Davis for the Jets. According to PFF, Davis has a below-average matchup against Patriots' defenders (41.2 Matchup Rating). While the Patriots just allowed a huge day to Cowboys' wideout CeeDee Lamb, it's tough to see the Jets having much success on offense in this spot. Currently ranked as WR31, Davis looks like an underwhelming WR3/4 against this Patriots defense.
Mac Jones (QB, NE)
Jones is currently ranked as QB26, but he is averaging 35.17 pass attempts per game, so you have to like the volume in an appealing matchup like this one. The issue here is that the Patriots could opt to feature the running game if they're able to control this one like the point spread suggests. This makes it tough to consider Jones as a viable streaming option, especially with the Jets allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Other Matchups:
Michael Carter (RB, NYJ)
The rookie has totaled 47 attempts and 14 targets, giving him a 49.2% opportunity share. Since Week 2, Carter has put up double-digit touches in each of his four games, averaging 12.75 touches per game. We could see the Jets opt to feed their rookie running back a bit more coming out of the bye week. The risk here is that Ty Johnson vultures a touchdown, as the veteran has seven red-zone attempts compared to Carter's six. However, Carter looks like a player who can make an impact down the stretch as an upside FLEX play.
Jets WRs
We could see either Jamison Crowder or Elijah Moore make somewhat of an impact with the Patriots keying in on Corey Davis. Crowder looks like the best bet here, as he's posted a 19.35% target share since returning to the lineup in Week 5. The veteran slot receiver has a 39.0 Matchup Rating against Patriots defenders this week, but he could act as a safety outlet for Wilson. Moore just hasn't been able to turn his air yards into production, as Wilson continues to miss him downfield. I'd only consider him in large-field DFS tournaments as salary relief. Crowder looks like a floor WR4 play in PPR formats.
Damien Harris (RB, NE)
Harris bounced back against the Cowboys last week, rushing 18 times for 101 yards and a touchdown. This projects as a positive game script with the Patriots as 7-point home favorites. The issue here is that the Jets' run defense is their strength, as they have only given up 4.0 yards per carry (12th). The Patriots rank 27th with 3.9 Adjusted Line Yards, demonstrating their struggles in run-blocking. We also have to consider rookie Rhamondre Stevenson, who played 33.33 percent of the snaps last week, not much less than Harris' 48.15%. Stevenson caught all three of his targets for 39 yards. There's a chance that this backfield is slowly evolving into a committee. Having said that, Harris can be considered an appealing FLEX due to the game script.
Patriots WRs
Kendrick Bourne has come alive lately, putting up 96, 58, and 75 yards in three of his last four games. While his target share (11.59%) makes him a volatile option, you have to like his yardage production. He looks like a viable WR4/5 dart throw if you're desperate at wide receiver due to injuries and bye weeks. Nelson Agholor has put up less than 35 yards in four of his last five games, averaging only 4.6 targets during that span. He has the better Matchup Rating according to PFF. I wouldn't be opposed to using either of these wideouts as punt plays in large-field DFS tournaments.
Patriots TEs
It's becoming clear who the fantasy-relevant option is out of these two tight ends. Hunter Henry has run 133 routes compared to Jonnu Smith's 70 this season. Henry also has the higher average depth of target (10.4 to 5.0) and target share (20.83% to 8.33%). Smith is merely a touchdown-dependent dart throw, while Henry is evolving into a viable option who looks like a TE1 in this spot. The Jets are allowing 16.1 PPR to tight ends (23rd).
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Ravens -6.5
Total: 46.5
Pace: Bengals (30th) vs. Ravens (29th)
Scheme: Bengals (56% Pass, 44% Run) vs. Ravens (48% Pass, 52% Run)
Bengals Off. DVOA: 12.4% Pass DVOA (18th), -14.8% Rush DVOA (20th)
Ravens Def. DVOA: 6.3% Pass DVOA (15th), -14.6% Rush DVOA (13th)
Bengals Def. DVOA: -2.4% Pass DVOA (8th), -28.0% Rush DVOA (4th)
Ravens Off. DVOA: 27.3% Pass DVOA (10th), -3.2% Rush DVOA (10th)
Matchups We Love:
Mark Andrews (TE, BAL)
Andrews has gone nuclear in recent weeks, catching 26-of-34 targets for 391 yards and three touchdowns in his last four games. Check out where he ranks among tight ends: fantasy points (2nd), target share (3rd), air yard share (4th), red-zone targets (T-7th), and average depth of target (2nd). He's becoming an elite tight end and on the verge of joining Travis Kelce in the top tier. It wouldn't shock me to see Andrews outscore Darren Waller this season. Andrews looks like the best bet among the skill players in this projected slow-paced matchup.
Matchups We Hate:
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Burrow has had a solid season so far, completing 70.7 percent of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt, but he's only averaging 29 attempts per game, so the volume has limited him to QB14 in fantasy points per game. The Ravens are tied for 11th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Both of these teams are among the slowest-paced in the NFL, so we might continue to see suppressed production due to limited volume for Burrow. While he's a fine play in SuperFlex leagues, this looks more like a floor week for Burrow. I'd look elsewhere if I needed a streamer.
Bengals WRs
Tee Higgins has established himself as the clear-cut number two option in this offense, posting a 23.14% target share. Since Higgins returned in Week 5, the usage looks like this: Higgins (19.7% target share, 8.0 average depth of target) and Tyler Boyd (12.12% target share, 4.1 average depth of target). Boyd has always been a player who depends on volume, but now the team is more balanced, playing at a slower pace, with an alpha wideout in the fold. Higgins looks like an upside WR3 while Boyd has fallen to a low-ceiling WR3 in full-PPR formats. This is a tough matchup, but I'd roll with Higgins over Boyd.
Ravens RBs
Latavius Murray is unlikely to suit up this week. Let's take a look at the running back usage from last week to help get a sense of what it could look like without Murray. Murray played only 37.68% of the snaps last week, carrying nine times for 44 yards and a touchdown. Devonta Freeman (9 ATT, 53 YDS, 1 TD) and Le'Veon Bell (8 ATT, 18 YDS, 1 TD) also got some work because it was a positive game script with the Ravens winning by multiple scores. We could see the usage funneled more towards Freeman in a game that should be close. However, this is a situation to avoid against a Bengals defense that is allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs. Baltimore ranks 24th with 3.99 Adjusted Line Yards, so it's going to be tough for them to get the running game going in this spot.
UPDATE: Murray has officially been ruled out.
Other Matchups:
Joe Mixon (RB, CIN)
Mixon was back to a full workload last week and he delivered in a cupcake matchup against the Lions, putting up five receptions for 153 total yards and a touchdown. It was great to see him get involved in the passing game again (six targets) after being quiet on that front in his previous four games (six targets). This is a tough matchup against a Ravens defense allowing the ninth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs, but the Bengals have put up 4.71 Adjusted Line Yards (6th), so maybe they can open up some holes for Mixon. Consider him a borderline RB1 in a lukewarm matchup here.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Chase is having one of the best rookie wide receiver seasons in NFL history. He's now caught 27-of-41 targets for 553 yards and five touchdown. The former LSU star has put up 70+ yards in four of six games this season. He already has five touchdowns while leading the Bengals in target share (23.98%), air yard share (47.07%), and average depth of target (15.7). While the Ravens are allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts, Chase has established himself as a matchup-proof WR2. Let's also remember that this Baltimore defense gave up a big game to Michael Pittman Jr. (6 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD).
Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL)
Jackson is setting career highs in virtually every passing category, averaging 32.3 pass attempts and 281 passing yards per game while continuing to rush for 60+ yards on the ground. He's currently ranked as QB6, coming off a down week against the Chargers. While he's an elite play every week, this profiles as more of a floor game because both teams are slow-paced, so we could see a lower scoring game in this spot. The Bengals defense is among the most improved units in the NFL, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Ravens WRs
Marquise Brown is in the middle of a breakout season, currently ranked as WR9 in PPR points per game, but rookie Rashod Bateman's return should eat into Brown's target share a bit, which could slightly bump down his value to more of a solid WR2 than an every-week WR1. Bateman put up a 22.22% target share in his debut, so it's clear that the rookie is going to make an impact in this offense. PFF gives Brown a 70.5 Matchup Rating, while Bateman gets a 25.1 rating. Keep an eye on Sammy Watkins because if he's able to play, it might make this a tougher situation to figure out. Consider Brown a WR2 with Bateman as an upside WR4.
UPDATE: Watkins has officially been ruled out.
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Total: 47.5
Pace: Falcons (10th) vs. Dolphins (6th)
Scheme: Falcons (59% Pass, 41% Run) vs. Dolphins (66% Pass, 34% Run)
Falcons Off. DVOA: 2.1% Pass DVOA (24th), -41.0% Rush DVOA (32nd)
Dolphins Def. DVOA: 22.5% Pass DVOA (26th), -10.6% Rush DVOA (19th)
Falcons Def. DVOA: 29.2% Pass DVOA (30th), -5.8% Rush DVOA (24th)
Dolphins Off. DVOA: -9.9% Pass DVOA (27th), -30.3% Rush DVOA (29th)
Matchups We Love:
Calvin Ridley (WR, ATL)
Ridley returns to the Falcons just in time for a smash spot against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the third-most PPR points per game to wideouts. Ridley has been a disappointment this season, currently ranked as WR26 in PPR points per game, but the usage is where we want it to be. The star wideout has posted a 49.03% air yard share (2nd) and 26.75% target share (11th) this season. This looks like a great spot for the production to match this high usage. It also helps that both of these teams are pass-heavy and play at a fast pace. Consider Ridley as an elite WR1 in this spot.
Kyle Pitts (TE, ATL)
Pitts is coming off his best game as a pro prior to last week's bye, catching 9-of-10 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. The rookie ranks 1st in air yard share, 9th in target share, and 8th in average depth of target among tight ends. PFF gives him a 36% advantage in this matchup, which ranks as third-best on the week. The Dolphins rank 17th in PPR points per game to tight ends. While Ridley is back to soak up targets, Pitts still looks like one of the elite options at the tight end position.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this game. Both teams are fast-paced and pass-heavy.
Other Matchups:
Matt Ryan (QB, ATL)
Ryan has slowly started to turn his season around, throwing for eight touchdowns with no interceptions in his last four games. He takes on a Dolphins defense that ranks 24th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. Ryan now gets his favorite target back in Calvin Ridley, which should help him turn in an efficient performance in this spot. There's shootout potential here as well, making the veteran quarterback a viable streamer in this spot.
Falcons RBs
Cordarrelle Patterson continues to be the biggest surprise of the season, coming off a game where he rushed 14 times for 54 yards and caught 7-of-9 targets for 60 yards. While Ridley's return figures to eat into that target share, we need to consider Patterson a viable RB2, especially in PPR leagues in this projected high-scoring affair. Mike Davis continues to see work, as he put up two receptions for 61 total yards in their last game. He's more of an RB3 in this spot. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so this is a good matchup. They're in the lukewarm section because of uncertainty with volume.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, MIA)
Tua returned to the lineup with a strong game, completing 70.2% of his passes for 329 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. This was despite the fact that he was missing DeVante Parker, Will Fuller, and Preston Williams. You have to consider Tua an intriguing streamer in this game, as he takes on a Falcons defense that ranks 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, especially with both teams playing at a fast pace. I really like Tua as a streamer in this spot.
Myles Gaskin (RB, MIA)
Gaskin continues to see sporadic usage, coming off 11 opportunities against the Jaguars after he caught all 10 of his targets for 74 yards against the Bucs in the previous week. We saw Salvon Ahmed get more involved last week, which is something to monitor moving forward. Gaskin is hard to trust aside from as an RB3 in PPR formats, but the matchup is good here, as the Falcons rank 23rd in fantasy points per game allowed to running backs.
Dolphins WRs
Jaylen Waddle looked great with Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback last week, catching 10-of-13 targets for 70 yards and two touchdowns. The Falcons have really struggled against the pass this season, ranking 30th in pass DVOA. DeVante Parker looks ready to return to the lineup after getting in a limited practice. While this limits Waddle's upside, we still could see Waddle provide WR3 value in this smash spot. The other issue here is that Waddle is getting underneath targets, as evidenced by his 5.4 average depth of target. It also looks like Preston Williams will return to the lineup, which could eat into Waddle's target share. Consider Waddle has an upside WR3 with Parker as a boom-or-bust WR3 and Williams as a volatile WR4.
Mike Gesicki (TE, MIA)
Gesicki is a wide receiver playing tight end, as he's only blocking on 3.2% of his snaps this season. The athletic tight end has combined for 27 receptions for 301 yards and a touchdown in his last four games. He ranks 3rd in air yard share, 8th in target share, and 3rd in average depth of target among tight ends. Keep riding the wave with Gesicki here, but we should temper our expectations with the Dolphins getting healthy at wide receiver.
Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans
Spread: Chiefs -5
Total: 57.5
Pace: Chiefs (11th) vs. Titans (13th)
Scheme: Chiefs (58% Pass, 42% Run) vs. Titans (53% Pass, 47% Run)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 47.1% Pass DVOA (4th), -0.9% Rush DVOA (8th)
Titans Def. DVOA: 23.1% Pass DVOA (27th), -9.6% Rush DVOA (21st)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: 31.9% Pass DVOA (31st), 6.8% Rush DVOA (31st)
Titans Off. DVOA: 7.5% Pass DVOA (21st), 6.2% Rush DVOA (4th)
Matchups We Love:
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes is currently averaging 314.5 yards per game, which would be the second-highest total of his career. He's also passing at a high rate, putting up 40.3 pass attempts per game. It's likely that this will continue throughout the year, especially since the Chiefs' defense has been so abysmal this season. This is another smash spot against a Titans defense allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. You also love to see that both teams are in the Top-15 in pace in neutral game scripts. We could see a ton of fireworks in this game.
Darrel Williams (RB, KC)
You have to love what you saw out of Williams in his first start with CEH on the shelf. The veteran played 71.95% of the snaps, rushing 21 times for 62 yards and two touchdowns while catching 3-of-4 targets for 27 yards. That's impressive usage, which is surprising considering how hesitant this team was in giving CEH such high volume. Williams has a great matchup against a Titans defense allowing 4.62 yards per carry this season (26th).
Tyreek Hill (WR, KC)
Hill was banged up against Washington, but he was still able to catch 9-of-12 targets for 76 yards and a touchdown. He should be healthier for this game, but keep an eye on his injury status throughout the week. Hill goes up against a Titans defense that has allowed the most PPR points per game to wide receivers. PFF gives Hill an 86.5% advantage in this projected matchup, which is tied for 3rd among wideouts this week. Hill has a chance to hit his ceiling in this spot.
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
Kelce had a nice bounce-back game against Washington last week, catching 8-of-11 targets for 99 yards. He's got another smash spot against the Titans, as PFF gives him an 87% advantage over Titans' linebacker Rashaan Evans in this matchup, which is by far the highest on this week's slate. The Titans are allowing the second-fewest PPR points per game to tight ends this season, but they haven't faced anyone nearly as good as Kelce. Like Hill, Kelce has a good chance at a spike week in this spot.
Derrick Henry (RB, TEN)
We've run out of superlatives to describe King Henry's performance this season. The Big Dog has now rushed for 725 yards and 10 touchdowns on 145 carries (5.0 YPC) in his last five games. He continues to be used in the passing game, as he's now caught 16-of-18 targets for 138 yards. This is another smash spot in a projected shootout at home against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Kansas City has given up the fourth-most PPR points per game to running backs.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this game. You're going to see a ton of points in this one.
Other Matchups:
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
Tannehill has not been good this season, averaging 7.3 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and four interceptions. He'll need to put forth a better effort if the Titans are to follow up an impressive win over the Bills with another one against the last year's Super Bowl finalists. The Chiefs are giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. There's a good chance that we see Tannehill's best game of the season in this spot, but temper your expectations with how he's looked this season. It's also important to remember that we thought the same thing about Taylor Heinicke last week, but the Chiefs' defense stepped up. This is why we'll keep Tannehill in the lukewarm section.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
Brown came alive in the second half against the Bills on Monday night, catching 7-of-9 targets for 91 yards. He always has a chance to erupt on any given week, especially in a projected shootout against a weak defense like we have here. The Chiefs are tied for 9th in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts, but the Titans will likely have to air it out a bit more than usual as they try to keep pace with Kansas City. Julio Jones has a chance to miss this game with a hamstring injury, so be sure to monitor his status. If Jones can't go, Brown will be bumped to the 'Love' section. Brown is still having issues with illness (stomach), so keep an eye on any updates.
UPDATE: Julio said he is "feeling good" on Friday and looks to be on the right side of questionable.
Additional Notes:
I'd steer clear of any of the ancillary wideouts on either team, including Mecole Hardman. I'd only roster them in DFS tournaments.
Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers
Spread: Packers -7.5
Total: 48
Pace: Football Team (3rd) vs. Packers (31st)
Scheme: Football Team (60% Pass, 40% Run) vs. Packers (57% Pass, 43% Run)
Football Team Off. DVOA: 7.7% Pass DVOA (20th), -19.3% Rush DVOA (25th)
Packers Def. DVOA: 9.7% Pass DVOA (19th), 0.1% Rush DVOA (30th)
Football Team Def. DVOA: 26.8% Pass DVOA (28th), -14.6% Rush DVOA (12th)
Packers Off. DVOA: 36.4% Pass DVOA (6th), 0.0% Rush DVOA (7th)
Matchups We Love:
Terry McLaurin (WR, WAS)
McLaurin has slowed down over the last couple of weeks, combining for eight receptions and 74 yards, but his usage keeps him in play as a WR1. McLaurin has posted a 46.6% air yard share (4th) and 28.64% target share (6th). The Packers' pass defense is not nearly as formidable without shutdown corner Jaire Alexander. Washington will likely need to air it out while playing catch-up in a game they project to be playing from behind. Fire up McLaurin as a WR1 in this game.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, WAS)
Rodgers is in a smash spot against a Washington defense allowing the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Packers have a 28.5 implied total for this game, which is the fifth-highest on the slate, so we can safely project them to score a lot of points in this one. Rodgers has a chance to hit his ceiling in this spot. The one risk is that the Packers are one of the slowest paced teams in neutral game scripts, so we'll have to hope that Washington can keep pace to some extent in order for Rodgers to keep airing it out.
Aaron Jones (RB, GB)
Jones has put up modest production since his eruption against the Lions in Week 2, finishing as RB16, RB29, RB23, and RB10 in full-PPR leagues. However, this game sets up as a spot where he can hit his massive ceiling with the Packers as 7.5-point favorites. We could see more usage for Jones as the team plays with a lead. The risk here is that he's a bit limited by his ankle injury, which has kept him from eclipsing 20 touches in each of his last three games. Having said that, we have to consider him an elite RB1 in this spot. A.J. Dillon could also see more work if the game gets out of hand. Keep him stashed on your bench for now.
Davante Adams (WR, GB)
Adams is in an ideal spot against one of the worst pass defenses in the league, as Washington ranks 28th in pass DVOA, coming in at 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to wide receivers. PFF gives Adams a 91.8 matchup advantage here, which ranks as second-highest on the slate behind Cooper Kupp. Adams ranks 5th with a 45.19% air yard share and 1st with a 36.46% target share. He's the overall WR1 in this cupcake matchup, possessing a terrific combination of floor and upside here.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate among fantasy-relevant players. Taylor Heinicke has hit a rough patch and should not be considered as a viable streamer. Robert Tonyan has been barely used and has fallen off the fantasy radar.
Other Matchups:
Washington RBs
There are concerns about Antonio Gibson's status for this game, as he's currently banged up with a shin injury. Gibson was able to get in a practice on Thursday, which bodes well for his chances of suiting up on Sunday. The issue here is that it's unclear if Gibson will have a reduced workload. We saw J.D. McKissic turn in a strong performance against the Chiefs, rushing eight times for 45 yards while catching 8-of-10 targets for 65 yards. We could see McKissic dominate usage in the passing game once again here. The Packers rank 30th in rush DVOA, but it's hard to trust this backfield if Gibson plays. Consider Gibson as a volatile RB2 while McKissic is an upside FLEX in full-PPR formats. If Gibson can't play, McKissic would move to the 'Love' section.
Ricky Seals-Jones (TE, WAS)
Seals-Jones has emerged as a surprise TE1 in the absence of Logan Thomas. The veteran has gotten phenomenal usage since taking over as starting tight end. He's run 74 routes over the last three weeks, which ranks 3rd in the NFL behind Travis Kelce and Noah Fant. That's extremely impressive company. This profiles as a pass-heavy game script with Washington playing from behind, making Seals-Jones a TE1 in this spot. I'll keep him in the lukewarm section because of the slow-paced nature of this Packers' offense, which could limit Washington's overall volume.
Carolina Panthers at New York Giants
Spread: Panthers -3
Total: 43
Pace: Panthers (17th) vs. Giants (7th)
Scheme: Panthers (57% Pass, 43% Run) vs. Giants (60% Pass, 40% Run)
Panthers Off. DVOA: -11.6% Pass DVOA (29th), -9.0% Rush DVOA (16th)
Giants Def. DVOA: 18.1% Pass DVOA (22nd), -3.9% Rush DVOA (27th)
Panthers Def. DVOA: -3.0% Pass DVOA (7th), -11.1% Rush DVOA (18th)
Giants Off. DVOA: -3.1% Pass DVOA (25th), -30.8% Rush DVOA (30th)
Matchups We Love:
Chuba Hubbard (RB, CAR)
Hubbard has quietly stepped into a bell-cow role in Christian McCaffrey's absence, handling 68.83% of the carries while putting up 11 targets in three games. He's basically been this year's version of Mike Davis. The rookie takes on a Giants defense that ranks 27th in rush DVOA while allowing seventh-most PPR points per game to running backs. Hubbard looks like a high-end RB2 in this heavy bye week given his strong usage and potentially positive game script with the Panthers playing as road favorites.
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
The Giants continue to struggle on defense, ranking 22nd in pass DVOA while ranking 22nd in PPR points per game allowed to wideouts. Cooper Kupp just went off on this secondary for nine receptions, 130 yards, and two touchdowns. Moore continues to see fantastic usage, ranking 5th in the league with a 29.44% target share. This game profiles as a get-right spot for a Panthers offense that has fallen on hard times in the last two weeks. Fire up Moore as an elite WR1 in this spot.
Matchups We Hate:
Daniel Jones (QB, NYG)
It's hard to like Jones against a Panthers defense that ranks 7th in pass DVOA, especially because he's likely to be without all three of Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, and Kadarius Toney in this spot. The Giants are likely going to struggle moving the ball on offense without so many of their playmakers. The good news is that Jones can make up for this with his rushing upside, but I can't get excited about him given the matchup and team context.
UPDATE: Barkley, Golladay and Toney have all officially been ruled out.
Other Matchups:
Sam Darnold (QB, CAR)
Darnold has been horrendous in his last two games, completing 38-of-78 passes (48.7%) for 384 yards (4.9 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and four interceptions. The good news is that this is a bounce-back spot against a Giants defense allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. However, I need to keep him in the lukewarm section because of how poorly he's played in his last two games. Darnold is fine as a streamer in this spot, but I'm tempering my expectations.
Robby Anderson (WR, CAR)
Anderson put up yet another dud that was masked by his touchdown, catching only 3-of-11 targets for 11 yards and a touchdown. Several of those targets were uncatchable, as Darnold really struggled last week. Anderson still has upside to provide WR3 production because he's totaled 29 targets in his last three games. Perhaps he can have a spike week because the matchup is right and the volume is there, but I hoped for that last week and it didn't pan out. This is why Anderson needs to remain in the lukewarm section. Rookie Terrace Marshall hasn't practiced this week and could be out for this game, which would likely result in more targets for Anderson and Moore.
Devontae Booker (RB, NYG)
Booker is in a great spot as the lead back for the Giants against a Panthers defense allowing an absurd 5.93 yards per carry over the last three games. The veteran back has played 79.72% of the snaps while handling 65.12% of the carries. He's also been targeted eight times. You have to fire Booker up as a volume-based RB2, especially given the heavy bye week. The risk here is that the Giants continue to struggle on offense with all their injuries, which is why Booker stays in the lukewarm section.
Sterling Shepard (WR, NYG)
Shepard returned to the lineup last week and got absolutely peppered with targets, catching 10 of his 14 for 76 yards. We can expect more of the same in this spot: low efficiency with high targets, giving Shepard a solid floor, especially in full-PPR formats. The veteran wideout has been productive while healthy this season, putting up 28 receptions for 299 yards and a touchdown. The Panthers are also giving up the seventh-most PPR points per game to wideouts, so this is a good spot. However, like with Booker, I'm keeping Shepard in this section because of my concerns over the potential struggles of the Giants' offense as a whole.
UPDATE: News came out that Shepard is in danger of missing this game. Dante Pattis (11 targets last week) and Evan Engram would see a big bump if Shepard can't play.
Additional Notes:
If Shepard plays, I'm not interested in Giants TE Evan Engram. He's put up 15 targets in three games, but the Giants are struggling on offense, so he'll need to find the endzone in order to provide fantasy value. If Shepard doesn't play, Engram would be in line for more targets.
Matchups Analysis - 4:00 ET Games
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams
Spread: Rams -16
Total: 50.5
Pace: Lions (26th) vs. Rams (14th)
Scheme: Lions (51% Pass, 49% Run) vs. Rams (60% Pass, 40% Run)
Lions Off. DVOA: -8.3% Pass DVOA (26th), -21.9% Rush DVOA (26th)
Rams Def. DVOA: -10.5% Pass DVOA (4th), -15.6% Rush DVOA (11th)
Lions Def. DVOA: 22.2% Pass DVOA (25th), -4.7% Rush DVOA (26th)
Rams Off. DVOA: 52.6% Pass DVOA (2nd), -6.8% Rush DVOA (14th)
Matchups We Love:
Matthew Stafford (QB, LAR)
It's wheels up for the second-best passing offense in the NFL in this Stafford revenge game. The Lions are allowing 9.84 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Stafford should be able to have his way with one of the worst defenses in football. The Rams have a 32.75 implied total, which is the highest on the slate. While there's risk that the Rams take their proverbial foot off the gas as 16-point favorites in this potential blowout, we should see Stafford approach his ceiling in this spot. There's also a chance that the Rams just run up the score against Stafford's former team.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (RB, LAR)
Henderson continues to see bell-cow usage, playing 79.49% of the snaps with 59.12% of the rush attempts and a 9.94% target share. The Lions are allowing the second-most PPR points per game to running backs. This is a dream game script for Henderson with the Rams as 17-point favorites, projected to blow out these Lions. This could allow Henderson to see several carries as the Rams run out the clock. He's a great bet to find the end zone in this game. Henderson is a clear-cut RB1 here.
Cooper Kupp (WR, LAR)
Kupp is currently ranked as WR1 overall, averaging 25.5 PPR points per game, which is 1.5 more than second-place Tyreek Hill. Kupp has put up an absurd 34.17% target share, totaling double-digit targets in every game this season. The Lions are giving up 10.99 yards per target (32nd) to opposing wideouts. Kupp needs to be considered a Top-3 wide receiver in this game. There's no reason to believe that the Lions will be able to slow him down. If someone in your league still doubts his status as an elite WR1, you need to capitalize.
Robert Woods (WR, LAR)
Woods had another slow game after coming alive on Thursday night, but at least he found the endzone. The veteran wideout is still putting up a 22.11% target share, making him a solid WR2 in this smash spot. There's a reasonable chance that every prominent Rams skills player has a great game in this cupcake matchup. We saw his ceiling against the Seahawks, where he caught 12-of-14 targets for 150 yards. We could see him eclipse 100 yards once again here.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
Higbee has put up 40 yards or less in five consecutive games, but his usage remains promising, as he's playing 89.12% of the snaps while running 138 routes, which ranks 8th among tight ends. We could see Higbee finally have a spike week in a game where the Rams should be able to score at will. Given the thin nature of the tight end position coupled with this being a heavy bye week, we can consider Higbee as a TE1 in this spot. If he doesn't produce here though, it might be time to take him out of the circle of trust.
Matchups We Hate:
Jared Goff (QB, DET)
Goff has been disastrous this season, averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and four interceptions. The Lions have failed to score 20 points in five consecutive games after scoring 33 in the opener against the 49ers. Head coach Dan Campbell called out Goff publicly this week, so perhaps we could see a better effort with Goff feeling pressured to improve his performance. I'm not betting on it though. Goff is likely to be pressured all game, as PFF grades the Lions pass-blocking at -69% against this Rams pass-rush. Goff isn't worth starting in any format.
Lions WRs
Amon-Ra St. Brown now has 23 targets in his last three games, establishing himself as the wideout you want in fantasy in this Lions offense. We could see the rookie rack up some dump-offs as Goff tries to get rid of the ball quickly while he's pressured. The problem is there's not much upside here at all, as the Lions have a 17.75 implied total, which is third-lowest on the slate. The Rams are also allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts. This is a tough matchup for the rookie. I wouldn't consider Kalif Raymond.
Other Matchups:
D'Andre Swift (RB, DET)
Swift continues to be one of the most valuable running backs in football, currently ranked as RB7 in PPR formats. He ranks 2nd among running backs with 42 targets, as the Lions continue to play catch-up and dump it off to their dynamic second-year back. Jamaal Williams continues to play a marginal role, but he's not worth using in a negative game script here. Swift has played 68.84% of the snaps, while Williams has been limited to 35.51%. Swift remains a matchup-proof RB1, but avoid Williams.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, DET)
Hockenson showed that he's starting to return to full health against the Bengals last week, catching 8-of-11 targets for 74 yards. We're likely to see him rack up a ton of targets in this pass-heavy game script, putting Hockenson firmly within the Top-6 at his position. The Rams rank 16th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends. Hockenson is back to being the number one option in this offense and should be started with confidence in this spot.
Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: Raiders -3
Total: 49
Pace: Eagles (1st) vs. Raiders (18th)
Scheme: Eagles (62% Pass, 38% Run) vs. Raiders (62% Pass, 38% Run)
Eagles Off. DVOA: 4.4% Pass DVOA (22nd), 6.4% Rush DVOA (3rd)
Raiders Def. DVOA: 8.5% Pass DVOA (17th), -15.8% Rush DVOA (10th)
Eagles Def. DVOA: 5.1% Pass DVOA (12th), -5.7% Rush DVOA (25th)
Raiders Off. DVOA: 20.9% Pass DVOA (15th), -30.1% Rush DVOA (28th)
Matchups We Love:
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI)
What else is there to say about Hurts? The guy is a fantasy cheat code who can put up big numbers despite struggling throughout the game. He's become the king of garbage time. Hurts goes up against a Raiders defense allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, but we have to consider him matchup-proof right now. The Eagles' offensive line could have problems with this tough Raiders' pass-rush, as PFF gives them a -30% rating in pass-blocking here. However, that could force Hurts to take off and run, which keeps him in the 'Love' section in this spot.
Miles Sanders (RB, PHI)
This looks like a good spot for a Sanders breakout week, as he's starting to completely take over this backfield. Since Week 4, Sanders is playing on 72.54% of the snaps and handling 45% of the rush attempts. He's also been targeted 12 times during that stretch. This is a good matchup against a Raiders defense allowing 4.52 yards per carry on the season (22nd). Rookie Kenneth Gainwell is no longer much of a factor here - this is the Sanders show. Buy low on him before this potential breakout game. I consider Miles to be an upside RB2 in this spot.
Darren Waller (TE, PHI)
Waller has really slowed down since his 19-target game in Week 1, averaging 6.8 targets per game in his last five since that performance. Despite this slump, Waller remains in the 'Love' section because: A) Tight end is such a thin position, especially with so many byes this week and B) The Eagles rank 26th in PPR points per game allowed to tight ends. Philly plays at the fastest pace in the NFL in neutral game scripts, so we could see this game turn into a shootout. Consider Waller to be an elite TE1 in this spot.
Raiders RBs
This is also a good spot for Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, as the Eagles have really struggled in run defense, allowing the sixth-most PPR points per game to the position. Jacobs (64% snaps, 70% attempts) dominated the workload in the first game post-Gruden, but Drake also came alive, turning six opportunities into 73 total yards and two touchdowns. Consider Jacobs to be an upside RB2 in this exploitable matchup, with Drake coming in as a desperation FLEX in PPR formats.
Matchups We Hate:
There aren't any matchups to hate in this game, as this is another sneaky shootout.
Other Matchups:
DeVonta Smith (WR, PHI)
Smith turned in a dud in a good spot against the Bucs, catching 2-of-4 targets for only 31 yards. Having said that, he's still dominating usage for the Eagles, playing on 91.84% of the snaps with a 39.34% air yard share and 22.16% target share. The Raiders are allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts, but we just saw Courtland Sutton get loose for eight receptions, 94 yards, and a touchdown last week. Smith looks like an upside WR3 in this spot.
Dallas Goedert (TE, PHI)
Goedert missed last week due to COVID, but he should be able to return for this one. Make sure to keep up to date with his status. It's a great spot because Zach Ertz was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Ertz was really taking away targets from Goedert, so this is huge news for the latter's fantasy value moving forward. The Raiders are allowing the sixth-most PPR points per game to tight ends, giving Goedert a chance at a spike week in this spot. He's in the lukewarm section because we're not totally sure about his status just yet.
Derek Carr (QB, LV)
Carr was excellent in their road win over the Denver Broncos last week, completing 66.7% of his passes for 341 yards (12.6 Y/A) and two touchdowns. The Raiders have been pass-heavy in neutral game scripts this season, so the volume should keep Carr afloat, even in a tough matchup against an Eagles defense that ranks 12th in pass DVOA. We can still consider Carr a viable streamer in this spot because this game has the looks of a sneaky shootout.
Henry Ruggs III (WR, LV)
Ruggs is in the middle of a breakout season and no one is talking about it, as the second-year wideout has totaled 18 receptions for 399 yards and two touchdowns in his last five games. While Hunter Renfrow is still there soaking up underneath targets and Bryan Edwards has flashed potential, Ruggs has the most fantasy value here. Ruggs doesn't need volume in order to provide strong production, as he's shown the ability to get loose downfield on a consistent basis. The Eagles' pass defense has been good, but Ruggs has the ability to take the top off any defense. He's an upside WR3 with the way he's playing right now, but we'll still leave him in the lukewarm section due to the matchup.
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -12.5
Total: 47
Pace: Bears (25th) vs. Buccaneers (16th)
Scheme: Bears (44% Pass, 56% Run) vs. Buccaneers (65% Pass, 35% Run)
Bears Off. DVOA: -17.5% Pass DVOA (31st), -2.8% Rush DVOA (9th)
Buccaneers Def. DVOA: 8.6% Pass DVOA (18th), -24.6% Rush DVOA (5th)
Bears Def. DVOA: -5.9% Pass DVOA (6th), -5.7% Rush DVOA (25th)
Buccaneers Off. DVOA: 54.5% Pass DVOA (1st), 1.3% Rush DVOA (6th)
Matchups We Love:
Leonard Fournette (RB, TB)
Fournette has emerged as one of the surprise RB1s of the season. Since Week 4, he's handled 62.79% of the rush attempts while adding 16 targets during that span. Ronald Jones now only comes in to give Fournette a breather. This is a great spot with the Bucs as 13-point home favorites, as it profiles as a terrific game script for Fournette. The Bucs have a 29.75 implied total, so there should be several scoring opportunities for Fournette in this spot. Fire him up as an RB1 against a Bears rush defense that ranks 25th in rush DVOA.
Bucs WRs
It's hard to determine which Bucs' wideout will have a spike week, but it's likely that one of them will. Tampa Bay ranks 1st in pass DVOA on offense, as Tom Brady and company are really picking apart opposing secondaries. Antonio Brown has emerged as the most consistent option among this trio, ranking as WR6 in PPR points per game. Mike Evans is next on this list, as he leads the team with a 30.89% air yard share and 14.5 average depth of target. Chris Godwin gets the underneath targets, which gives him a solid floor but not nearly the same ceiling as Brown or Evans. The Bears are giving up the 12th-fewest PPR points per game to wideouts, so this isn't the best matchup on paper, but this Bucs' passing game is so good that they are matchup-proof.
UPDATE: Antonio Brown was surprisingly ruled OUT for this game. That's huge news for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They look like high-end WR2s now.
Matchups We Hate:
Bears RBs
It's unclear right now if Damien Williams will be able to return from COVID-19 for this week. Khalil Herbert played well in the veteran's absence, rushing 19 times for 97 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. The problem is that if Williams is back, there's a chance that we'll see a committee, which is bad news for this backfield. The Bucs' rush defense continues to be elite, ranking 5th in rush DVOA. Williams would be the preferred choice because of his usage in the passing game.
Other Matchups:
Justin Fields (QB, CHI)
This game sets up nicely for Fields, as the Bears will finally be forced to air it out as they try to play catch-up with Brady. More passes mean more rushing opportunities, since Fields will have the ball in his hands more in a pass-heavy game script. The rookie surprisingly hasn't delivered on his rushing upside so far, but we saw signs of more usage last week against the Packers, where he rushed six times for 43 yards. This looks like it's going to be Fields' breakout game, but we need to temper our expectations after what we saw this Bucs' defense do to Jalen Hurts last week. Having said that, I'm totally on board with Fields as a streamer in this spot.
Bears WRs
Darnell Mooney (26.9% target share) and Allen Robinson (24.83% target share) are in great spots with the Bears likely forced to air it out in this game. Both wideouts haven't been able to provide much fantasy production because of limited passing volume, especially A-Rob. We can consider both players as upside WR3s here, but we need to leave them in the lukewarm section because we thought the same thing about the Eagles last week and we saw how that turned out.
Tom Brady (QB, TB)
Brady continues to deliver, as he's currently QB5 on the season. However, the Bears rank 6th in pass DVOA, which has me feeling lukewarm about the veteran's fantasy outlook for this week. The Bears are also tied for 7th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. While you're still firing him up as a mid-tier QB1, I don't think we're going to see him hit his ceiling in this spot. I'd look elsewhere at quarterback in DFS tournaments. I'd also prefer going with Matthew Stafford in season-long leagues.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals
Spread: Cardinals -17.5
Total: 47.5
Pace: Texans (21st) vs. Cardinals (20th)
Scheme: Texans (54% Pass, 46% Run) vs. Cardinals (56% Pass, 44% Run)
Texans Off. DVOA: -10.0% Pass DVOA (28th), -40.3% Rush DVOA (31st)
Cardinals Def. DVOA: -17.6% Pass DVOA (2nd), -24.0% Rush DVOA (6th)
Texans Def. DVOA: 4.0% Pass DVOA (11th), -0.2% Rush DVOA (29th)
Cardinals Off. DVOA: 47.1% Pass DVOA (5th), -15.3% Rush DVOA (22nd)
Matchups We Love:
Kyler Murray (QB, ARI)
Murray is currently ranked as QB4 despite averaging only 19.3 rushing yards per game (51.2 last season). Imagine what could happen if he starts to run like he did last year? The thing is, this lack of rushing could be by design, especially with the huge upgrades to this team's receiving core. Nevertheless, Murray remains an elite QB1 in a smash spot against a Texans defense that ranks 22nd in fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Cardinals have a 32.5 implied total in this game, which is second-highest on the slate.
Cardinals RBs
This game sets up as a fantastic game script for Chase Edmonds and James Conner with the Cardinals as 17-point favorites. Edmonds is averaging only nine opportunities per game in his last two after averaging 16.25 opportunities in his previous four. Perhaps he's been limited by his shoulder injury. The good news is that he got in a limited practice on Wednesday, so there's a chance that we see him approach his normal workload here. Meanwhile, Conner has averaged 14 opportunities in his last two games. He continues to dominate in the red-zone with five rushing touchdowns. We could see an uptick in usage with the Cardinals likely controlling this game.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR, ARI)
It's a revenge game for Hopkins here, one of the few that mean something because Hopkins did not leave Houston on good terms. He's started to look back to form lately, putting up a 45.93% air yard share since Week 4. The Texans are allowing the fifth-most PPR points per game to wideouts, so this is a great spot for Nuk, especially with the Cardinals projected to score a lot of points. You can fire him up as a WR1 in this spot, as it's likely that he provides high-end production here.
Matchups We Hate:
Davis Mills and the Texans RBs are in a terrible matchup here, but they're not fantasy-relevant options right now. David Johnson would be my preferred choice in this backfield due to his receiving upside.
Other Matchups:
Brandin Cooks (WR, HOU)
Cooks had a bounce-back game against the Colts last week, catching 9-of-13 targets for 89 yards. It's encouraging to see that Davis Mills has at least been able to move the ball more in the last two weeks. This bodes well for Cooks' outlook going forward. This profiles as a pass-heavy game script with the Texans having to play from behind. However, it's a tough matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 2nd in pass DVOA. Consider Cooks as a volume-based WR3 in this spot.
Cardinals WRs
It's really tough to determine which ancillary wideout will have a good game for the Cardinals. Christian Kirk (12.8 aDOT) and A.J. Green (23.53% red-zone target share) have upside, but Rondale Moore is starting to see an increased role lately. Moore has posted a 17.86% target share in the last two weeks. He's looked like a stud when given an opportunity, so there's a good chance that he'll continue to get more involved as the season progresses. I'd roll the dice on Moore as my favorite Cardinals secondary wideout here.
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI)
Ertz makes his debut with the Cardinals, taking over as the team's primary tight end. There should be much more scoring opportunities for the veteran while playing for one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. At the same time, we need to temper our expectations because there are several mouths to feed in this offense and this is Ertz's debut, so we're not sure about his usage yet. Having said that, tight end is super thin, especially on this heavy bye week, so Ertz is a borderline TE1 here.
Matchups Analysis - Sunday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers
Spread: 49ers -4
Total: 44
Pace: Colts (27th) vs. 49ers (22nd)
Scheme: Colts (59% Pass, 41% Run) vs. 49ers (52% Pass, 48% Run)
Colts Off. DVOA: 13.7% Pass DVOA (17th), -5.3% Rush DVOA (12th)
49ers Def. DVOA: 5.7% Pass DVOA (14th), -13.8% Rush DVOA (15th)
Colts Def. DVOA: 27.6% Pass DVOA (29th), -38.3% Rush DVOA (1st)
49ers Off. DVOA: 24.3% Pass DVOA (12th), -8.6% Rush DVOA (15th)
Matchups We Love:
Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND)
Taylor is on fire right now, combining for 441 total yards and five touchdowns in his last three games. He's caught 7-of-9 targets during that span, demonstrating that he can make an impact in the passing game. The one issue here is that head coach Frank Reich continues to stubbornly utilize Nyheim Hines and Marlon Mack in this backfield, as Taylor is only averaging 18 opportunities during this hot streak. The 49ers rank 17th in PPR points per game allowed to running backs. Fire up JT as an RB1 in this spot.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
Samuel has been one of the biggest surprises this season, as he's evolved into the alpha in this offense, putting up a 32.91% target share. He's racked up double-digit targets in three of his five games along with two 150+ yard performances. Samuel goes up against a Colts defense that has really struggled against the pass, ranking 29th in pass DVOA while allowing ninth-most PPR points per game to wideouts. We can consider Deebo as a high-end WR2 in this game.
Matchups We Hate:
Elijah Mitchell (RB, SF)
Mitchell has established himself as the lead back for San Francisco, but the Colts have been one of the toughest run defenses in the league, ranking 1st in rush DVOA while allowing the fifth-fewest PPR points per game to running backs. This defense has given up only 3.98 yards per carry (11th). While the 49ers have always been a great running team under Kyle Shanahan, it's hard to trust Mitchell in this spot. I'd prefer to look at the 49ers' passing game here.
Other Matchups:
Carson Wentz (QB, IND)
Wentz has really played well in the last three games, completing 60-of-87 passes for 853 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He's averaged over 11 yards per attempt in consecutive games. The 49ers are tied for 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks, so this isn't that tough of a matchup. We're also seeing the Colts pass the ball 59% of the time in neutral game scripts, which bodes well for Wentz. He's a viable streamer in this matchup, but we'll leave him in the lukewarm section because quarterback is such a deep position.
Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, IND)
Pittman is currently ranked as WR30 in PPR formats, but he's posted a 24.47% target share, which is alpha-type usage. Parris Campbell is out for the season and T.Y. Hilton is in danger of missing this game. Pittman should be considered as an upside WR3 in this spot if Hilton can't play, but the veteran should take away some target share if he's able to suit up. For this reason, we need to leave Pittman in the lukewarm section this week.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, SF)
Garoppolo is expected to return as starter this week and he's a viable streamer given the exploitable matchup. The Colts are tied for 25th in fantasy points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The issue with Garoppolo is volume, as the 49ers remain one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. He doesn't have much of a ceiling, which keeps him in the lukewarm section. If you're in a SuperFlex league and you need a decent floor, go with Garoppolo in this spot.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR, SF)
Aiyuk has been quite possibly the most disappointing player in fantasy football this season, as many in the industry had high hopes for the second-year wideout. He's currently ranked as WR96, averaging only 4.8 PPR points per game. The good news is that he's seen a 14.29% target share in the last two weeks, which is an increase from what we saw earlier in the season. Perhaps the 49ers will get him more involved coming out of their bye week. The matchup is right for an Aiyuk breakout, making him worth the dart throw if you're hurting at wide receiver.
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