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Mike S. identifies breakout players on bad MLB teams that may still be available on waivers for fantasy baseball managers to add.
The MLB trade deadline has come and gone, the contenders are separated from pretenders, and the playoff race is coming into focus. Yes, it's the dog days of summer, and fantasy managers are getting reminded how long baseball season is during non-pandemic years.
As the good teams enter the most exciting portion of the schedule, others are simply playing out the 162-game marathon with eyes on the golf course this October. That doesn't mean fantasy managers should ignore these teams, however. Just the opposite, in fact. Every rebuilding team has holes and someone has to step up and eat innings or log at-bats.
Below we'll find a few players getting an opportunity that they may not have gotten playing for a contender. When one door closes another one opens, and fantasy managers should be open to the idea of rostering these players who can help us down the stretch and into the playoffs. Rostered percentages are based on Yahoo! fantasy leagues.
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Rafael Ortega - OF, Chicago Cubs
51% Rostered
Ortega could star in a production of "Hamilton" at this point because he's not throwing away his shot. The 30-year-old journeyman has been in professional baseball since 2008 and has been everywhere since. He made his MLB debut in 2012, which lasted all of six plate appearances. He wouldn't see a Major League diamond again until 2016. In total, Ortega has spent time in seven different organizations and never played more than 66 MLB games in any season.
Well, he's played in 61 games this year and since Chicago sold everything that wasn't nailed down at the trade deadline, Ortega is primed to grace the diamond at Wrigley Field for the rest of the season.
Ortega is batting .338 with a .912 OPS, six homers, 18 runs, 17 RBI, and seven stolen bases in those 61 games. What really makes Ortega a must-roster player in fantasy, however, has been his role since the trade deadline, which coincides with his promotion to the leadoff spot. In his last 14 games, he's batted leadoff 13 times and has a .440 batting average and a .720 slugging percentage. Those come with four homers, 10 runs, 10 RBI, and four steals.
His .426 BABIP signals he's been a tad lucky in the batting average department, but not as much as you might think. Ortega has a career-best 34.7% line-drive rate, a 41.7% hard-hit rate, and he boasts above-average speed, so he fits the mold of a high-BABIP player. He's crushing it as the leadoff hitter for the Cubs and has shown a willingness to steal bases. Ortega is a gift from the fantasy baseball gods if you need help in batting average, that's a rare commodity to find on waivers this late in the season; he should be added in all formats.
Josiah Gray - SP, Washington Nationals
38% Rostered
Gray entered the 2021 season ranked as the number four prospect for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Despite posting a whopping 38% strikeout rate in Triple-A, he had little chance of earning a permanent spot in the Dodger rotation. He would make two starts for the Dodgers where he allowed six runs across eight innings. Nothing to write home about.
Gray was part of the return haul when the Nationals waved the white flag on their 2021 season and shipped Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to Los Angeles. Washington immediately called up the 23-year-old righty and he dazzled in his first three starts.
| Opponent | IP | ER | H | BB | K |
| PHI | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| ATL | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| ATL | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
He didn't earn a win in any of those starts and his ERA is a pedestrian 4.13, but his underlying metrics show why he was such a highly-regarded prospect.
So far this season, Gray has a 17.4% swinging strike rate which would lead the Majors if he had enough innings to qualify. Obviously, he wouldn't be better than the likes of Corbin Burnes or Scherzer over a larger sample size, but the fact he's generating whiffs at that level is a great place to start. He's got a four-pitch arsenal including a four-seamer that sits at 95 MPH and two breaking pitches that earn whiffs more than 40% of the time.
If gaudy swinging-strike numbers aren't your thing, how about the good old-fashioned eye test?
Now that Gray is free from the Dodgers and their almighty pitching depth, he should be added in all fantasy formats as the Nationals will let him develop on the fly with the Big League club. This type of strikeout upside doesn't belong on waivers.
Lewis Brinson - OF, Miami Marlins
35% Rostered
Stop me if you've heard this one before, Miami Marlins outfielder Lewis Brinson could be a breakout star for fantasy baseball. I've heard of a post-hype breakout, but at 27-years old, Brinson is post-post-hype and then some.
Brinson came up through the Milwaukee organization and batted .106 in a 21-game cup of coffee with the Brewers in 2017. At the time, no one seemed to care about his Big League struggles as he was young and a highly-regarded prospect who posted an eye-popping 1.005 OPS in Triple-A the year prior. He was the key prospect Miami got in return for Christian Yelich and by the Spring of 2018 every fantasy analyst, scout, and Marlins fan was expecting big things from Brinson.
Here we are in August of 2021 and that breakout still hasn't happened. Across parts of three seasons, Brinson has a paltry .203 batting average in 300 games at the highest level. That being said, he's crushing the ball right now and will be given as much playing time as he can handle down the stretch as the Marlins brass needs to decide if he's part of the future.
Since he was recalled to Miami on July 19, Brinson has a .348 batting average, a .411 OBP, and a monstrous .697 slugging percentage, albeit across just 79 PA. He's cut his strikeout rate to a more manageable level and is walking more than he ever has at the MLB level. His batted-ball metrics look great as well as he's got an above-average 91 MPH average exit velocity and a strong 43% hard-hit rate.
Brinson has burned fantasy baseballers before, but he's entering his prime, hitting the ball great, and will play every day. That's worth taking a shot on in fantasy.
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