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John 'LucidMedia' Brubaker's MLB betting picks for 8/4/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on moneylines and more!
Happy Thursday RotoBallers! John, aka 'LucidMedia," back with you with our free picks on Thursday. Hang tight, the weekend is almost here. We went 2-0 on our plays last night, taking us to 5-1 on the week. Let's finish the week strong and give our bankroll a little boost heading into the weekend. I have a few games I have my eyes on today, so let's get right to it.
I will be doing these picks for you every Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday going forward this baseball season. Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel Sportsbook, and that's where the odds below will be coming from. I know not everyone is able to bet on Fanduel, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly! The RotoBaller team has had a great month of July on the books so far, so let's finish it out strong and make some money!
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Chicago Cubs @ Colorado Rockies
O/U: 11.5 | Moneyline: COL -168
CHC: Jake Arrieta | COL: Antonio Senzatela
The Cubs were able to steal one from the Rockies in Coors last night. However, I do think it's a viable strategy to fade the Cubs over the rest of the season, as they have clearly waved the white flag on this year. They send Jake Arrieta to the mound tonight, who quite possibly could be the worst pitcher in the National League, and possibly even all of Major League Baseball. I give him a hard time, but he's been decent-ish over the last 30 days with a 3.95 xFIP, compared to his season number of 5.35. Arrieta, like many other pitchers, struggles in Coors as he has three starts (14.2 innings) and a 10.54 ERA in Colorado.
The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound for his first start in about a month after he was put on the COVID-IL in July. Senzatela has been much better in Coors than not, with his 3.75 ERA at home looking much better than his 6.03 ERA on the road. The Rockies are 13-2 in their last 15 after scoring two runs or less in their last game, while the Cubs are 2-9 in their last 11 after their opponents scored two runs or less in their last game. The Cubs are also 1-5 in their last six following a win. I'm on Colorado.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline (-168) FanDuel Sportsbook
Kansas City Royals @ Chicago White Sox
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CWS -198
KC: David Lynch | CWS: Dallas Keuchel
The Royals and the White Sox square off in their series finale tonight. The Royals plan to send rookie Daniel Lynch to the mound, and he's struggled quite a bit since being called up to the Majors, with a 6.95 ERA and a 5.57 xFIP to boot. He faces the division-rival White Sox for the first time as a starter this evening. He's faced six different White Sox for a combined nine plate appearances and has allowed five hits and three walks. So, quick math... he's allowed eight baserunners in nine plate appearances against current White Sox players. Yikes.
On the other side, Dallas Keuchel takes the hill for the Pale Hose. Keuchel is certainly not what he used to be, coming into this one with a 4.51 ERA and a 4.63 xFIP on the season. To his credit, he's had great success against Kansas City's current hitters, as Royals hitters have had 129 plate appearances against him and are coming in with a .212 batting average and a .262 on-base percentage. The Royals are middle of the park this year against left-handed pitching, ranking 16th in the Majors in OPS vs. LHP. I expect that to positively regress today and they are able to put some runs on the board. Despite a lot of trends pointing towards the under, my data leans this game going over. I think 9.5 isn't enough runs for what these teams are capable of, and we're getting it at plus money. I'm on the over.
Picks: Over 9.5 (+102), FanDuel Sportsbook
Let's get after it today and finish the week strong! Be sure to follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS for updates and more plays!
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