RADIO
Last night was close to being great, but more heartbreak was to befall us. The Red Sox won as we expected so we banked that one. The Rangers did lead after five innings so that also bagged us a win but sadly, their bullpen couldn't hold the lead and they lost in extra innings. The cherry on top of the bad luck cake came when Casey Mize was removed after three innings having tallied four strikeouts and needing one more to win us the prop bet. We later found out the Tigers are now going to limit his workload (something which would have been useful to know beforehand) so he departed after just 56 pitches. We did end up with a slight profit but still a tough one to take.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-1.52 U)
- O/U Record: 4-6-1 (-2.49 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-10 (-3.12 U)
- Prop Record: 12-11 (+1.17 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 22-30-1 (-7.38 U)
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CHC +122, CIN -130
CHC: Adbert Alzolay | CIN: Tyler Mahle
The Reds took Friday night's game 2-1 to condemn the Cubs to their seventh straight defeat and the same result tonight will see the Reds leapfrog the Cubs in the standings. Despite Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant returning to the lineup last night, the Cubs offense continued to struggle. Since June 01st, they rank last in wRC+ (74) and are hitting .188/.264/.366 as a team.
The Reds offense has been much better, ranking 10th in wRC+ (109) since June 01st and has a team slashline of .259/.347/.421. All-Star outfield duo Jesse Winker and Nick Castellanos combined for ten homers last month and will look to head into the All-Star game in form.
Alzolay has been having a solid breakout season and entered June with a 3.81 ERA. That now sits at 4.55 after allowing 11 earned runs in 10.2 IP over his last three starts. Given his career-high of innings pitched is 120.1 in 2016, the fact he's starting to show signs of slowing down in his first full MLB season is hardly surprising.
For the Reds, Mahle has shown that last season's breakout campaign wasn't a fluke. Through 16 starts, he has a 3.74 ERA and has continued his increased strikeout numbers with a 30.0% K% while lowering his BB% to 7.7%. He did have something of a rough June, with a 4.34 ERA from his five starts last month. Mahle did have a 3.17 xFIP for the month so was a victim of bad luck in June although he did manage to strike out 41 batters in 29.0 IP during those five starts.
This will be Mahel's third start against the Cubs with the previous two offering mixed results. Both starts were 5.0 IP, with the most recent being a shutout. The prior start saw Mahle give up six earned runs. The issue Mahle has had all season is pitching at home, with a 6.75 home ERA and a 2.01 road ERA. The Cubs offense has been so anemic recently, this should be a chance to lower his home ERA a bit.
Pick: First 5 innings - Cincinnati Reds -0.5 (+100) 0.5 Units
Pick: First 5 innings - Over 4.5 runs (-120) 1 Unit
Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Angels
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: BAL +170, LAA -188
BAL: Jorge Lopez | LAA: Alex Cobb
The Angels secured a walk-off victory on Friday night after both teams' starters struggled and only completed 5.2 IP between them. Thirteen runs were scored in the first four innings with the Angels leading 7-6, before the Orioles tied it in the sixth and ultimately gave up the winning run in the ninth.
For the Angels, this was the fifth straight game of scoring five or more runs, totaling 35 runs (seven per game) in that span. The Orioles offense has been even hotter with 36 runs in their last five games (7.2 runs per game). The Angels are being carried by first-half AL MVP Shohei Ohtani. His two homers last night now make it 13 home runs since June 15th (15 games) and his third multi-homer game in that spell. For the Orioles, Trey Mancini hit his 15th homer of the season last night while Ryan Mountcastle is hitting .298/.385/.579 with five homers over his last 15 games.
The Orioles offense was tied-8th for runs scored (131) in June while collectively hitting .255/.317/.420. The Angels ranked second in runs scored for June with 154 and hit .270/.339/.487 as a team. Both teams appear to remain locked in at the plate given last night's scoreline.
The Orioles starting rotation has been the worst in MLB this with a 6.05 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. In 82 games, their starters have a 12-39 record, which is also the fewest wins any rotation has. Lopez (2-10 from 16 starts) will get the chance to turn things around tonight and will hope to lower his 5.92 ERA. His five June starts totaled 25 innings as he regularly got knocked out of the games early, as evidenced by his 7.20 ERA for the month.
The Angels will look for Cobb to help clinch the series tonight but will need a better outing than his last one in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings against the Rays. Given Cobb managed to pitch 5.2 shutout innings against the Tigers, the fact his four June starts combined for a 7.32 ERA shows how bad his other three starts were last month.
All things point to another high-scoring affair and neither team has a starter I'd be confident enough to keep runs off the board.
Pick: Total runs - Over 9.5 runs (-110) 1 Unit
Pick: First 5 innings - Over 5.5 runs (+100) 0.5 Units
Prop Bet
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
For some reason, Dallas Keuchel has his strikeout line set to 6.5. If he hits the over, it'll be just the second time in 16 starts in which Keuchel has picked up seven or more strikeouts. I know he's facing the Tigers, but since June 01st, they have a 106 wRC+ against LHP (11th best) and a 25.7% K%, which isn't dreadful. In the only previous meeting this season, Keuchel only managed to strike out three Tigers hitters over six innings on June 04th. This line looks a little on the high side to me and something we should be able to take advantage of.
Pick: Keuchel under 6.5 Ks (-125) 1.5 Units
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