RADIO
expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings/FanDuel lineup picks for LPL & LCK on 07/02/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back esports fanatics, to another LOL breakdown article featuring Four matchups tomorrow from the LPL and LCK. My name is Nathan and I'll be filling in for the article today so lets get down to business! Let's see what our best routes to victory are for this 4 game slate locking at 4:00 A.M. EST.
Roster changes will be addressed if need be when mentioning each team. As a friendly reminder, if you can't stomach any sub risk or don't enjoy waking up mid-REM sleep, then figure a way to roster players that don't hold any sub risk. The LCK is tricky when it comes to starting lineups, and we are usually given the LCK starting lineups about an hour or so before lock, for the first series (@KorizonEsports on Twitter is a good lineup source, as well as @kenzi131). We are going to try and project starters based on who has recently been starting. LPL starters are found earlier and on Twitter too just give a quick search for "LPL Lineups" on Twitter and it'll pop right up!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 24th, 2021. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @NvanhareDFS. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis. The odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups!
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4:00 AM: Nongshim Redforce (+171) vs. DWG Kia (-212)
This is the first matchup of the day so lineups should be out. NS' team has been out in full (Red)force this split; We've seen them dominate many games and really surprise us all. Gori has been an incredible asset for them and has really made a difference in terms of their game flow and team chemistry. Damwon has done quite well without Ghost. After Mid-season Invitational (MSI) They were disappointed with the results and used Ghost as their most viable scapegoat for the issues. I'm not a full believer in Ghost but I think they'd be better off swapping supports rather than ADC's. That being said, DWG's team has been firing on all cylinders with the position swaps and addition of Malrang. NS is a great team but DWG is very much so more likely to take the W in this matchup.
NS also boasts a solid deaths per loss (DPL) at around 16 DPL. They're a fast-paced team and for this reason, coupled with DWG's 17 KPW this split, DWG is viable in GPPs as a main stack more so than other nights. Look to target ShowMaker and Canyon as always and to avoid BeryL: He's just a nightmare for DFS. Don't fully count NS out for your GPP considerations, but I would keep my exposure to a low amount.
Top DWG Plays: ShowMaker, Canyon, Khan
Top NS Plays: Gori, Peanut
7:00 AM: KT Rolster (-152) vs. Fredit BRION (+125)
For the second LCK series, we won't have starting lineups before lock. Both teams SHOULD be rolling with the same starters from their last matches. Some interesting KPW DPL analysis on this one doesn't give me much hope for KT stacks. This split so far, KT has 18 KPW, which sounds great. However, BRION only has about a 13 DPL, one of the lowest in the league, rivaled only by Gen.G. This paints a picture of FB usually playing more technical when behind and limiting the kill fiestas we love to see in DFS. However, when we look at the other side there's more hope. KT has a 16 DPL and FB has a 15 KPW. This already gives me a lot more confidence in the GPP/DFS viability of Fredit stacks on a slate like tonight.
For what it's worth, I've never been a firm believer in KT's skill but I have had glimmers of hope for Brion. Lava/Hena have done well, especially in wins, when it comes to fantasy scoring and should be staples in your BRO stacks. For KT I'd look to focus on Noah and Harp as they have shown to have a really high ceiling historically.
Top KT plays: Noah, Harp
Top FB Plays: Lava, Hena.
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: LGD (-829) vs. RW (+569)
I'd like to start this part of the article off by reiterating that I am not a financial advisor- this is not financial advice.
LGD is the much better team here right? Sure, but I'm still not buying it. Kramer isn't amazing, and they haven't played incredibly in their wins. But here's the problem, RW is not a good team. Even if RW brought back Haro over icecoke, I still wouldn't think they were remotely good. That's not stopping me from taking shots on Rogue Warriors though. If they only win around 12-13% of the time, as odds dictate, there's still merit to rostering some stacks of them. RW is likely to score very well in wins as they play a hyper-aggressive style and getting them in a stack at probably all <5% sounds tasty. You can be sure to catch me with moderate exposure to these guys tonight to take advantage of the perceived ownership leverage.
LGD of course is much more likely to win, and when they win likely to put up good scores as well. This is a game I'm looking to target heavily in GPPs and cash alike. Shad0w has been a really good piece for them this split and they've impressed many with their play. Kramer doesn't really make me excited but I'll have some stacks of LGD with him included.
Overall, RW is definitely likely to lose here, but the best part about sports/esports is that outcomes aren't definite. Underdogs, even massive ones, have the opportunity to win on any given day. Don't discount the idea of using them.
Top LGD Plays: Shad0w, fearless
Top RW Plays: Betty, Forge, QiuQiu
7:00 AM: Ultra Prime (+493) vs. JD Gaming (-697)
UP is 100% deserving of the disrespect that Pinnacle's oddsmakers have given them. In fact, the only reason the odds aren't more lopsided is JDG's bad play recently. JDG had a rough patch but it's more than likely they're back to their old selves in this matchup. JDG has a 21.25 KPW and UP has a 20.6 DPL. All of this points towards JDG steamrolling this one and hitting some ceilings in the process. In wins, JDG has the highest pace in the league this split and in losses UP has a top 3 pace. I'm looking to have JDG stacks all across my GPPs and cash lineups for this slate.
As always, we still have to consider underdog stacks. Such a big reason why there's a huge edge, in esports especially, is that the field will roster UP as if they were 1-2% to win when in reality they're at about 12-15%. Having the ability to win at low ownership and in a high-paced matchup is always a good thing in DFS. UP stacks are worth a shot in large field GPPs and if you're using multiple lineups, otherwise stay away.
Top JDG plays: Everyone
Top UP Plays: Xiaocaobao, H4cker
Summary
- DWG are solid, I'm staying away from NS tonight.
- KT are playing a slow-paced team and don't likely score enough in W's but Brion have ceiling potential.
- JDG is entirely better than UP and look to roster them frequently.
- RW coming off a win and against LGD, a team I don't believe in, definitely worth a few shots.
That's it, for now, Summoners, good luck tomorrow!
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