RADIO
What's up, RotoBallers! Thunder Dan here with your MLB betting picks this Sunday, May 30th. All 32 MLB teams are in action today and there are some games and teams that stand out today as some great spots to get some action. If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! I will be doing these picks for you every Sunday going forward this Summer. Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
We have had a very rainy Memorial Day weekend so far, so be sure to keep an eye on the weather today as we could see some more delays and postponements today. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Milwaukee Brewers @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: WAS -117
MIL: Brandon Woodruff | WAS: Max Scherzer
Can you say "pitchers' duel!?" This should be a fun one to watch as the veteran Mad Max takes on one of the better young pitchers in baseball in Woodruff. Both pitchers are hard-throwing righties with nasty sliders and high strikeout pitchers. Max has a better matchup for strikeouts in this one as Milwaukee carries a 27% K rate to RHP while Washington only whiffs 21% of the time.
But Woodruff has been an elite pitcher when it comes to run prevention with a 1.41 ERA and a minuscule WHIP of 0.70. He simply doesn't walk guys and done a great job of keeping the ball on the ground when they do make contact. The Nationals have missed Juan Soto for a big chunk of the year, but since he's returned they still haven't been an offense to fear either. They're still near the bottom of the league in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against RHP and we just shut out by Freddy Peralta in a seven-inning game yesterday.
I'll cut to the chase here - I am not expecting much offense here. There is some potential rain that might interfere with this game so I am a little hesitant to take the under for the full game in case the starters have their outings cut short by a long delay. But the first five-inning under looks good to me and I wouldn't be surprised if the game ended 2-1 if it goes the full nine innings.
Pick: First 5 innings - under 2.5 runs (+118) DraftKings Sportsbook
If you love betting on player props, consider signing up for a premium DFS or betting package at RotoBaller and get access to all of the customized strikeout projections that I post daily in our premium slack chat!
#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CWS -250
BAL: Keegan Akin| CWS: Lucas Giolito
I love the White Sox today but there's no value in the money line at -250. Chicago has their ace (or at least one of their best starters, I suppose you could make a case for Lynn or Rodon as their ace based on their starts) on the hill today in Giolito while the Orioles are going with Akin here in a spot start.
Giolito hasn't been as dominant this year as last so far but comes into this one in good form having pitched really well in his last two starts. He has a good matchup here as the Orioles have been a weak team against RHP this season with a .285 wOBA and .140 ISO.
Meanwhile, the ChiSox offense has been one of the best units in MLB this season against LHP with a .360 wOBA and .196 ISO. Akin has been pitching out of the pen so far this year and made a handful of starts last year for the O's, but has a 4.28 xFIP over that span and a massive 48% fly-ball rate to righties. He throws in the low 90's and doesn't have great breaking pitches to keep hitters off his fastball.
It's easy to back the Chi-Sox at home here and I have a few different bets that I like (and I will be using some Giolito and Chicago bats in DFS, too).
Pick: Chicago run line -1.5 (-120) DraftKings Sportsbook, Chicago team total over 5 runs (+100) FanDuel Sportsbook
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SFG +150
SFG: Kevin Gausman| LAD: Clayton Kershaw
Okay, time to get risky! Perhaps I am feeling a bit bold after backing the Giants last night against lefty Julio Urias, but I can't help but like the way this game lines up for San Fran. Kershaw is a better pitcher than Urias, but this 2021 version of Kershaw isn't anywhere near as dominant as he was a few years ago. The Giants can hit lefties and have done so to the tune of a .320 wOBA this season. They can throw out a really tough group of right-handed hitters and some lefties who hit LHP well (Yaz + Crawford).
Kevin Gausman takes the hill for the Giants and he's had just an incredible start to his 2021 campaign. He's 5-0 with a 1.53 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and a 30% strikeout rate. He continues to rack up one quality outing after another and has allowed more than one run just once this season. This Dodgers offense did get Cody Bellinger back, but is still missing Corey Seager and has been slumping of late. With Gausman being the better pitcher (this season that is) and the Giants offense having the better platoon splits against Kershaw, I will happily back the underdog here at nice odds.
Pick: Moneyline - San Francisco Giants (+164) FanDuel Sportsbook, (+150) DraftKings Sportsbook
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!
More Fantasy Baseball Analysis
