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Good morning RotoBallers! Some of you might be surprised to find out and some of you correctly assumed that I have an analytical/statistical background. But what always interested me was not those results that fit the expected model, but those true outliers. The aberrations, the deviations away from the pattern if you will, were what always fascinated me. So forgive me if I find it interesting that today's piece will be my first preview here on Rotoballer of an all-day MLB slate on FanDuel.
Despite an all-day slate, we still only have 12 games to create our lineups. But that's plenty! We got a Coors matchup to consider and two of the highest salaried pitchers on the slate squaring off against one another. More good news is that the weather does not seem to be a factor for Thursday's slate. The flip side of that is that we really can't dismiss any of the 24 teams in action today.
The early game is the one most in danger as of now, and we should know early enough whether or not to include players from that game. Given the high-powered offenses in those games, they are definitely part of our consideration set. Will I be recommending any from that game? Read below to find, as I provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the FanDuel all day slate on 5/13/2021. Be sure to also check out all the MLB player news, including late scratches, and the projected and confirmed daily MLB lineups for each DFS slate. You can also check out today's DraftKings MLB DFS lineup picks, and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too.
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FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Cash Game/GPP Anchor Play:
Jack Flaherty, STL at MIL ($10,500)
I don't love Flaherty's upside today at all. But he has had 36 or more FD fantasy points in every one of his last six outings. That kind of consistency is hard to ignore and exactly the kind of floor we look for in cash games. He's also won six of his last seven games. Flaherty has posted sparkling ratios so far this weekend: a 2.83 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP. Additionally, he's mowed down 42 batters so far this year. I'm not excited about him, but those kinds of stats I can certainly get behind.
Furthermore, this is a pretty favorable match-up. The Brewers have scored the fifth-fewest runs. Milwaukee not only has the league's third-worst batting average, but they've struck out the third most times as well. I am happy to pay for Flaherty's floor in my cash game entries.
GPP Potential Alternate Play
Daniel Lynch, BOS vs DET ($9,600)
I can promise you the ownership on Lynch will be extremely low, making him a high-leverage play. As you can see, he is also extremely cheap. However, there are reasons for that. For one, he currently averages a negative fantasy points per game. He got absolutely shellacked in his last start by the White Sox, a team whom has been battering left-handers all years. But that was only his second start.
Getting only two out of the ten batters he faced led to a barrage of overreaction on Twitter. Many are saying the Royals rushed him to the bigs. He definitely could use a third pitch, especially if he's tipping his pitches. But his two primary pitches are plenty of reasons to give the Royals hope. As we saw in his first start, his slider is absolutely filthy:
Daniel Lynch got his first MLB strikeout on 3 pitches, including this filthy slider for the out ?
(via @Royals) pic.twitter.com/b2YxmT8sBO
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) May 4, 2021
Recall above how I talked about the Brewers batting issues? Detroit is right there with Milwaukee when it comes to an attractive match-up for opposing pitchers. Pitching Lynch today is obviously the contrarian route, but no pitcher presents more opportunity for a huge profit today than Lynch. It's a risky move. However, even if he just pitches average, the bats that it enables us to choose could easily make it worth it.
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FanDuel DFS Infielders
Freddie Freeman - 1B, ATL vs TOR ($3,900)
And that starts with the Atlanta lineup. The Braves will be facing Ross Stripling, who has yet to get a win. The left-handed Freeman is likely chomping at the bit to face the right-handed Stripling and his 6.61 ERA. As ugly as that is, it's not as ugly as Stripling as his 1.94 WHIP. I would like to see Freeman raise his average, but he's whacked nine home runs already. I'm jumping on Freeman while he remains relatively affordable.
DJ LeMahieu - 2B NYY at TBR ($3,900)
Also at $3900 we find LeMahieu, who also has a strong matchup. He will likely be leading off against Rich Hill and his 5.17 ERA. LeMahieu is off to a solid start, batting .272. His ISO is currently at a four-year low of .103 but given that Hill is giving up a HR/9 of nearly 1.5, LeMahiu should see his isolated power begin to rise.
Cavan Biggio - 3B, TOR at ATL ($2,600)
Especially for those starting Flaherty, we need some cheaper options, and Biggio fits the bill. Biggio is struggling, but so is opposing pitcher Charlie Morton. Morton's 4.98 ERA should be even higher. He gave up six runs last outing and couldn't get out of the first inning. Yet a questionable scoring decision, ruling one of those many hits to be an error, let Morton off the hook with all six runs considered unearned. Until Morton shows me otherwise, he is extremely flammable. This is a pure match-up play, as I think Biggio snaps out of his slump sooner than Morton does.
Xander Bogaerts - SS, BOS vs OAK ($3,500)
I know I've been a little match-up heavy so far. Bogaerts should be in your lineup however regardless of the matchup right now. He's hitting .333 with seven round-trippers. Bogaerts had a strong April, but his May is off to an even better start. With a 1.050 OPS in May, I am not sure why FanDuel still has him this cheap. Not that I'm complaining!
Among qualified MLB shortstops, Xander Bogaerts leads in wOBA (.428), fWAR (1.7), and wRC+ (176) this season. Among American League position players, only Mike Trout has a higher fWAR than Bogaerts in 2021.
This has been a regularly scheduled Xander Bogaerts appreciation tweet.
— Austin J. Eich (@Eich_AJ) May 9, 2021
Given my personal distaste for all things Red Sox, my admiration of Bogaerts and his potential MVP-like season is worth noting. The fact that he's hit .444 against Sean Manea, today's opposing pitcher, doesn't hurt either!
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Yordan Alvarez - OF, HOU vs TEX ($3900)
Bogaerts has my attention because he's both hitting and making fielding highlights nightly. However, there are still quite a few hitters having a better season than him, and one of those of is Alvarez. Alvarez is hitting .347 with seven dongs. With an OPS of nearly 4-figures and a sub-$4K salary, Alvarez is my favorite outfield play of the day.
J.D. Martinez - OF, BOS vs OAK ($4,100)
Another reason why Bogaerts won't win the MVP is because he's not even the best hitter on his team. Martinez is hitting .328 with double-digit HRs and a 1.031 OPS this season. 'Nuff said.
Kyle Tucker - OF, HOU vs TEX ($3,300)
So yes, a couple of mini-stacks today, but another decent buy for those spending up on pitching today. Tucker is the reverse of LeMaheiu, as he is absolutely mashing the ball, after hitting his eighth home run last night. He has an isolated power of .244, but is only hitting .213. However, that average is being weighed down by a ridiculously low BABIP of just .200. He's been extremely unlucky and should begin to see some of his screaming liners fall in for hits. Against the right-handed Mike Foltynewicz and his 4.50 ERA, I think the left-handed Tucker will do just that.
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