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It's been a rough journey through the majors so far for David Dahl. The potential has been there for the former 10th overall pick, but he has been plagued by injuries nearly every season. A torn hamstring in 2013 and a lacerated spleen in 2015 cost him time in the minors, a stress fracture in a rib and back spasms cost him most of 2017, a fractured foot sidelined him for a couple months in 2018 and then an ankle injury cut short his breakout 2019 campaign.
In 2020, his poor offensive performance was likely due to a shoulder injury that started bothering Dahl in January that he had attempted to play through before eventually undergoing surgery in September.
After the Rockies parted ways with Dahl this offseason, the Texas Rangers decided to take a chance on Dahl and signed him to a one-year "prove it" deal. He'll likely take over in left field for the departing Shin-Soo Choo, but the two questions for Dahl are can he stay healthy, and what kind of value can he provide in fantasy? Let's take a look.
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It won't come as a surprise to anyone that Dahl's injury history will make it harder to predict how he will do in Texas this year. So the way we'll tackle this is by starting off with what Dahl is capable of if he remains healthy for a full season, and then we'll take a look at what to reasonably expect out of him assuming he misses time.
Throughout his career in the Rockies farm system, Dahl showed potential as a likely 15-homer, 15-steal guy with the possibility of a 20-20 performance while hitting for a solid-to-high average. His best year of full-season ball came in 2016, when he hit .314 with a .963 OPS, 18 home runs and 17 steals in 92 games as he bounced back from having his spleen removed in 2015. Fantasy managers saw a glimpse of that version of Dahl in 2019, when he appeared in a career-high 100 games with the Rockies and hit .302 with an .877 OPS, 15 home runs and 61 RBI, albeit with only four steals. If you projected Dahl's numbers out over a full season, he was on pace to hit 25 home runs before his injury — and that was down from the rate he had in 2018 in which he was on pace for a 34-home run season. And Dahl was hitting for a good average even in limited playing time, as he had a career .297 average over his first three seasons with his lowest mark a .273 average in 2018.
You could see the potential in Dahl's bat between the injuries, but then 2020 happened and Dahl struggled all season long. Besides slashing a career-worst .183/.222/.247, Dahl had a career-high 28.3 percent strikeout rate, a career-low 4.0 percent walk rate and he struggled to make hard contact. His 22.7 percent hard-hit rate, 3.0 barrel percentage and 85.9 mph average exit velocity were all career-lows for him. Most of that dip in hard contact though is likely as a result of playing through the shoulder injury, and it's entirely likely that all those numbers go back up in 2021 with the shoulder no longer a factor.
But assuming that Dahl can have a full, healthy season this year, the biggest concern fantasy managers should have is the dreaded Coors Field Splits. Check out Dahl's career splits:
| BA | OBP | SLG | ISO | HR | HR/FB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | .318 | .361 | .556 | .239 | 25 | 18.1% |
| Away | .248 | .302 | .420 | .172 | 13 | 13.1% |
Oof. Need I say more? On one hand Dahl has shown some pop in the minors, but he has definitely benefitted from playing at Coors Field and that might not spell good news for his value in Texas. Whereas before we had established that Dahl had been on track for 25 to 35 home runs over a full healthy season, moving to Texas it's possible that a more realistic prediction for Dahl is 15 to 25 homers based on these splits.
Now the one thing that Dahl showed in the minors that has not translated into his major league career so far is stolen bases. He swiped 12 bags in his first year of pro ball, and from 2014 to 2016 Dahl averaged 20 steals per season. But the injuries that have limited his playing time have also effected his steals, as he has 15 career steals over 264 games. It's a stretch for sure, but it's possible a fully healthy Dahl could steal 10 to 15 bases with the Rangers. Especially considering the aggressiveness in stealing that Texas displayed in 2020. Despite having the fewest stolen base opportunities in the majors, the Rangers' 9.2 percent stolen base attempt rate was the highest out of any team and nearly double the league average of 4.9 percent. So Dahl could see a boost being on a team that's more aggressive with their baserunning.
2021 Outlook
So where does that leave us with Dahl in Texas? Assuming a full, healthy season from Dahl, fantasy managers should expect an average somewhere around .255 to .280 with about 15 to 20 home runs and 10 (maybe 15) steals. The safer bet when you take into consideration his injury history is probably 12 to 15 homers and 5 to 10 steals, but the average should still be between .255 and .280. A good full season comparison for Dahl would be something between Andrew Benintendi and Kevin Pillar's 2019 campaigns.
He currently owns an ADP of 305 — basically a borderline late-round target. You're not likely to roster him in the majority of standard leagues barring a major mid-season hot streak, but in deeper leagues he'll be worth some consideration very late in drafts. Make sure to keep an eye on him this year in case he finally manages to shake off the injury bug and put it all together.
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