Undervalued Forwards - Fantasy Basketball Draft Values

December 20, 2020

Antonio Losada's undervalued fantasy basketball forwards and draft sleepers for the 2020-2021 NBA season. Consider drafting these forwards earlier in your drafts.

If you are a long-time fantasy player, you know how it feel to getting snipped in a fantasy draft. You know how it goes: you enter the lobby with a few players to draft in mind, have everything planned for you to build the perfect roster, and just a couple of picks before the one where you expect to target your next great asset, some other GM snatches it from you.

Those "undervalued" players you are targeting late, then, might be worth drafting earlier instead of waiting a little too much for them and ending losing them. At the end of the day, not every GM is undervaluing great plays, so you have to be aware and stay a step ahead!

Today, let's talk about some undervalued players at the forward position. For whatever reason most fantasy GMs are making them sit at lower-than-they-should ADPs, offering you a great chance to draft some gems late. Don't sleep on your laurels, though, if you don't want to miss on them to another savvy GM!

Andrew Wiggins, Golden State Warriors

I don't think it'll be the case unless you've been living under a rock, but just in case: Klay Thompson is done for the year due to injury. Sucks, but here we are folks. That means that Mighty Maple Jordan will be back at it bombing everything that graces his hands away. Well, maybe not that much, but still. Wiggins will suffer Stephen Curry's comeback year, and will also have to deal with rookie James Wiseman getting opportunities himself, but that also means he'll be in a better environment than he had to play in last season.

Wiggins, in an under-the-radar year at GSW, finished 2020 with a near 22-5-4-1-1 line on average, one that only fell 0.2 spg and 0.3 apg short of making Andrew a true 20-5-4-1-1 player in the NBA. That's no joke, as only one player (Bam Adebayo) reached a 15-10-1-1-1 average on the year, hitting at least 1.0 in each and every cat. Wiggins wasn't the most productive player (1.08 FP/min; tied-73rd), but thanks to his usage he finished as a top-50 player yet he is currently getting drafted with an ADP of 82, way below his true-talent level.

DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurs

DeDe's usage as the leader of the Spurs last season was above 26 percent, and three percentage-points higher (at least) than the marks of both LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay. DeRozan basically ate all he could, and then some. That's why he finished the year posting 39.1 FPPG average to go with 1.15 FP per minute on the court. He even shot 25.7% from three! Hallelujah! Nah, forget about that, he attempted 0.5 3pa and made 0.1 per game, so you better forget about getting treys from DeDe, as that's not his mojo at all.

But DeMar is a pretty great hooper overall--the 20th-best of 2020 in total fantasy points, that is. DeRozan 22-5-5-1 line on the year while shooting 53.1 percent from the floor and 84.5 percent from the free-throw line put DD on par with Russ, LeBron, Harden, Doncic, and Giannis as the only 20-5-5 players last year. Obviously, DeRozan's ceiling is much lower than that of the rest of the players in that group, but he's also turning the ball over just 2.4 times per game (Giannis had the other-lowest mark already at 3.7) and he can be considered a poor's man top-tier fantasy talent. Far from a 52-ADP player as he's getting off boards these days, that's for sure.

Nemanja Bjelica, Sacramento Kings

Digging through the fantasy scraps still available in drafts boards late, it is of prime importance to focus on production and under-the-radar gems to add to your roster. Enter Bjelica, Kings Great. A lot of fantasy GMs will reach the 13th or 14th round of their draft, will see both Bjelica and Harrison Barnes available, and will jump on Barnes before Bjelica only because of the name instead of their game. See: Bjelica played 27.9 mpg last season compared to Barnes' 34.5, yet the former closed the year averaging 27 FPPG compared to the latter's 25.7. Barnes' production was atrocious while on the floor (0.75 FP/min) compared to Bjelica's above-average-not-great 0.97 FP/min.

I'm not saying Nem is going to become a league winner or a staple in your lineups, but for what he does on the floor he's more than a viable fantasy asset. Bjelica shot 4.4 3pa per game while hitting 41.9 percent of those. His .481/.419/.821 shooting splits were only mimicked by six other players last year, and only Khris Middleton attempted more shots while posting those numbers. That's Nem in a nutshell, folks. In case you are not aware, Bjelica was the 60th-best fantasy player even on a reduced role but he's now getting drafted with an ADP of 134 which makes no sense at all. Bank on Bjeli, tank me later.

Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic

There have whispers about Orlando being interested in trading Fournier. It might be a little harder now than it would have been through spans of last season because Fournier was insane then, but Evan the French might still be coveted by some teams around the league--and by fantasy GMs by extension. Yahoo is not showing that trend, though, as Fournier has a rather cheap ADP of 109 at this moment, making him way undervalued after a top-60 finish last season.

Fournier played 31.5 mpg for the Magic and was average on a per-minute basis with a 0.94 FP/min mark on the year. He dropped an average 18-2-3-1 line for the year, and he spent the season bombing from long range with 6.6 3pa per game hitting 39.9 percent of them and shooting 46.7 percent overall from the field on a healthy 14.1 fga per contest. Only 20 players had Fournier's shooting splits last season, and only four (Evan included) were able to keep them up while shooting at least 14 fga per game--all of those three other players, though, have ADPs of 62 at most, compared to Evan Fournier's 109. Undervalued is the label, Evan is the name.

Dillon Brooks, Memphis Grizzlies

If you thought Evan Fournier and Nemanja Bjelica were already way-under-the-radar picks for this column, oh boy, get ready for this one because your head might explode. Yes, we're talking Dillon Brooks here. Brooks, who is getting drafted with an ADP of 144 and slipping almost entirely into most leagues WW these days. And that, let me tell you, is a dumb strategy used by our fellow Yahoo fantasy GMs.

As things stand at the time of this writing, Brooks has the seventh-highest ROI among all NBA players when calculating it by comparing their 2021 ADP to their final-rank in 2020. Brooks averaged 0.9 FP/min and only 26 FPPG in 28.9 mpg of playing time, but he was part of 73 games and even on short runs he was still able to rack up the 62nd-most total fantasy points in 2020. Brooks did a little bit of everything, adding 3.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, and 0.9 spg to his nice 16.2 ppg on the season. Only Dillon and a certain Zion Williamson shot more than 14 field goals per game while playing fewer than 29 mpg being eligible as forwards. Isn't that great company?

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