RADIO
Dom Petrillo identifies a player at each position who is the best ADP value and potential breakout performer for 2020 fantasy football, These four players could make up the Mount Rushmore of fantasy leagues.
We all know the big names that dominated their positions last year: Lamar Jackson, Michael Thomas, Christian McCaffrey, and Travis Kelce were league-leaders and often league-winners for a lot of fantasy managers. All these players finished at number one at their respective positions. This does not mean they were the best values though. C-Mac was a consensus first-rounder, Kelce was the top-drafted TE, and there is no way you could have rostered Thomas along with the other two, even if you were lucky (smart?) enough to land Jackson later.
Having Jackson, Thomas, McCaffrey and Kelce would be nice. It would have also been impossible. But what about Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Chris Godwin and Darren Waller?
In this article, we are going to look at the 2020 players who represent the best value based on draft cost and where they are likely to finish. To put it another way, who are this season's Mt. Rushmore of fantasy players? Who can you wade out into the wilds of South Dakota to get to and find the value needed to make a league-winning roster?
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Quarterback: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
ADP: Pick 107
Constantly underappreciated. This is the mantra for Matthew Stafford in the fantasy football community. This is evident again in 2020 as he is currently coming of the board with the last pick in the eighth round of drafts. Much of this has to do with his injury-shortened season of 2019. This was a mirage.
Stafford has rarely missed a game before last season. Despite having a fractured back for almost the entirety of the 2018 season, he played all 16 games. On top of this, he now has a legitimate WR one to finally replace Calvin Johnson.
I am not going to call Kenny Golladay as good as Johnson. This would be crazy as Johnson was one of the best ever. But Golladay is better than any WR one the Lions have had since Johnson. And this matters for the entire offense.
In eight games last season before injury forced him out, Stafford had 2,399 yards and 19 passing TD. This put him on pace for 4,798 yards and 38 TD. The 38 TD would have led the NFL. Beating out Lamar Jackson who had 36. His production in the first eight games also had him at QB two for fantasy before the injury.
With Patrick Mahomes hopefully healthy for all 16 games and Lamar Jackson still in the league, QB two is not likely for Stafford. A top-five finish is feasible though and getting this in the Eighth or even ninth round is great value. Perhaps league winning value.
With Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson joining Golladay in the pass game along with Danny Amendola in the slot, weapons are not a problem in Detroit. The real key will be the effectiveness of the run game. One which has not been good in 20 years. In hopes of changing this, the Lions drafted D’Andre Swift out of Georgia to add to talented but oft-injured Kerryon Johnson in the backfield.
After a rookie season which saw him garner over 5.0 yards per carry, Johnson was more disappointing last season. He is already being seen in a walking boot early in training camp and this is not a good sign for his truthers.
In contrast, D’Andre Swift is already drawing rave reviews from the coaching staff for his pass-catching abilities. This will not only help the run game; it will also help the prospects of Matthew Stafford having a great season.
While others are reaching to take Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, relax, build up a monster roster and draft Matthew Stafford late. Your league mates may be laughing now. But you will be the one laughing when you bring home the championship.
Running Back: Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
ADP Pick 75
After returning from suspension last season, Kareem Hunt took a bite out of the production of Nick Chubb.
In those eight games, Hunt out-snapped Chubb in six of them. He also took a large chunk of the targets which had been going in the opposite direction for the first half of the season.
Odell Beckham Jr. is still there. He is also still an elite receiver. Jarvis Landry is a great slot guy holding down the underneath routes will be extremely important for Beckham and the run game to get on track this season.
Hunt will be a major part of this run game. Not only is he as talented as Chubb in the run game, he is far better in the pass game. This means the current price of a seventh-round pick for Hunt is a far better value than using a late first on Nick Chubb. Chubb will need to duplicate his rushing totals from last season. While this might happen, his receiving numbers will plummet. This will far outweigh the rushing numbers he will put up for Cleveland.
The best thing Cleveland did this offseason was to sign Jack Conklin to a contract to solidify the right side of their offensive line. By doing so and drafting Jedrick Wills Jr. for the left side, the Browns should move from one of the worst lines in the NFL to a top 15 line. At least good enough for Baker Mayfield to have time to throw. If Mayfield is given this time, he will find Hunt open and often quite often. Much the way Andy Reid used Kareem Hunt as a rookie, Cleveland can do the same with a similar level of offensive line play.
We were all a year too early on crowning the Cleveland Browns in 2019. They struggled with a bad offense and a worse head coach. They seemingly have both figured out in 2020. They are not going to win the division. But in the seventh-round, Kareem Hunt may just win your fantasy league.
Wide Receiver: Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
ADP Pick 55
Most fantasy players are not going to wait until the fifth-round to pick their first WR in a draft. If you do, Robert Woods is a great option for this pick. If you already have a Michael Thomas or Julio Jones though? Woods makes an even better WR2 for your team. Whether the Rams play in 11 personnel or 12, the one constant will be Robert Woods on the field.
His two TD receptions are not what you like to see from a top-flight receiver. But in 15 games in 2019, Woods averaged six receptions and 76 yards per game despite a down season by Jared Goff and the entire Rams offense. His 90 receptions and 1,134 yards are both likely to go up as the Rams hope to bounce back from their disappointing season. Woods also became only the ninth WR since 2000 to have more than 1,100 yards and less than three TD. This leads to the conclusion that the TD numbers should regress positively in the upcoming season.
Cooper Kupp is great. At 6’2" he is bigger than normal slot receiver. But he is a slot receiver. Like Julian Edelman, this limits the upside potential of his yardage numbers. Woods, on the other hand, gets downfield for the big play and is fast enough to outrun coverages.
In 2018 while playing in all 16 games, Woods was on the field for 95% of the Rams offensive snaps. In 2019, despite missing a game, he still managed to be on the field for 89% of snaps. If he is not injured, he does not come off the field in any formation. This is perfect for a WR 2 as someone who not only is always on the field but translates this into consistent production numbers.
Is Robert Woods likely to finish as the top fantasy receiver in 2020? No. With just a bit of positive regression in the TD area, he could finish in the top-10 though. Not bad at all for a fifth-round pick in your fantasy draft.
Tight End: Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
ADP Pick 109
In a rookie season marred by quarterback instability, Noah Fant still managed to produce a solid first season. In 16 games, the athletic Fant caught 40 passes for 562 yards and three TD for a Broncos team who disappointed in the AFC West behind eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have not gotten worse this offseason, so it is up to the rest of the division to catch up. This means an explosion of offense will be forthcoming.
Denver has tried to get in on the explosion by drafting both Jerry Judy and K.J. Hamler to add to emerging star receiver Courtland Sutton. They also added Melvin Gordon to a backfield which also has Phillip Lindsey to provide a good duo of complementary backs.
The addition of Gordon, a first-round pick of the Chargers who feel out of favor in Los Angeles means the team finally will move on from Devontae Booker and allow Lindsey to take a preferred role as the second man up.
All of these new weapons and a full year of Drew Lock will do wonders for the offense. This includes the lost man of the bunch in Fant. With defenses needing to focus more on the likes of Sutton, Judy and even Gordon in the pass game, Noah Fant will roam free and find seams in opposing defenses to make major gains in his second season out of Iowa.
Like Evan Engram in New York, Fant is not a blocking tight end. He is a large-bodied wide receiver playing the tight end position. This mismatch will be exploited by new offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur and Fant will take his place near the top of the offensive tight end rankings.
Whereas last season Darren Waller made the leap in the AFC West, this season it will be Noah Fant. Instead of using a second-round pick on Travis Kelce or George Kittle, take a stud RB or WR early. Then you can grab Fant in the ninth round - a much nicer price for a tight end.
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