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Jake Finnen provides his NBA DFS prop picks for February 5th, 2020 on Monkey Knife Fight. Make your DFS picks with his fantasy basketball advice.
As one of the top plays, Andre Drummond has been rolling in production and he faces one of the weakest frontcourts in the league Wednesday night. Normally, Drummond's ceiling is close to 20 points and 20 rebounds, but that number easily fluctuates depending on various factors. If he is playing a significant shot-blocker or high-volume rebounder, his upside is altered, but even then, Drummond has been tearing it up in every aspect. If it was anyone else other than the Suns I might hesitate on taking the over here, but Drummond has been too good lately and the Suns frontcourt is not where it needs to be defensively to limit Drummond tonight.
Also, can we take the under tonight on a player being traded? Even if some of these matchups didn't get talked about, they still have potential, so don't be afraid to take the risk if you notice a trend or a certain player picking up steam. But always, if you have any questions, find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter.
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Kawhi Leonard (LAC) UNDER 29.5 Points
First thought was that the Miami Heat defense would be able to limit Kawhi Leonard, but seeing how he posted a 30-point triple-double last time against them, 29 points seems modest when he is playing so well. He has scored 30 in nine out of his last 10 games, but it's hard to simply overlook the ability of someone like Jimmy Butler on the opposing defense.
He will not single-handedly stop Leonard, but if we need 30 points tonight, forcing the ball out of Leonard's and might be his only responsibility. If anyone misses time tonight, this pick is pretty much a guarantee, but my only concern is Leonard not playing in this out-of-conference matchup.
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Jimmy Butler (MIA) OVER 21.5 Points
The Clippers defense ranks 7th against opposing small forwards, but luckily Jimmy Butler just needs to score 22 points to hit the over. Already, he is not projected to have a terribly high-production game and looking forward to who he will be facing tonight, the Heat are going to need his scoring.
Last time these two teams faced, Butler had 20 points heading into the end of the game, but left with a slight ankle injury and had to miss the waning minutes. You might be able to see why there is optimism around this pick, so look for Butler to hit his 22-point threshold, but not have an overly-outstanding game.
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Devin Booker (PHO) Over 29.5 Points
The Detroit Pistons are in a tough spot right now. They seem unsure what direction they want to take their team, and while some Pistons players are extremely useful and have potential each night, as a whole they are struggling.
Devin Booker is coming off tying his season-low in scoring and this constitutes a rebound game from one of the league's most talented scorers against Detroit, who rank 19th against opposing shooting guards. The Pistons have been letting up a ton of points lately, and even when they are able to score and defense, they are letting up points to shooters.
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John Collins (ATL) Over 10.5 Rebounds
After specifically searching for this pick, it's a hard one to pass up on. John Collins returned from his injury and immediately returned back to the form fantasy players want to see. It is never a bad thing when a matchup indicator is a pleasant shade of dark-green, so although the Timberwolves might not seem like the 23rd worst team to face opposing power forwards, they are and they deserve to be targeted.
Eight out of Collins' last 11 games have been double-digit rebounding games, with two of those eight being just 10 rebound games. All in all, he has upside tonight and 11 rebounds is a low ceiling.
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Kristaps Porzingis (DAL) Over 24.5 Points
Even with both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas holding down the Memphis frontcourt, Kristaps Porzingis is playing on an entirely different level at this moment. He is scoring from the outside with incredible efficiency he hasn't really shown in his career thus far, not to mention he is contributing elsewhere if he isn't hitting his shot.
That last statement has been a rare occasion, which in itself is a rare occasion given how little time Porzingis has seen over the past two years, so this outburst is being welcomed with open arms and heavy wallets. Until this streak comes to an end, potentially against the Jazz later this week, then and only then I will stop buying into the current hype of Porzingis.
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