X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

Next Gen Stats Season Review: Running Backs

Time's up! The 2019 fantasy season is done and gone for good. Whether you play in a redraft league or are part of a dynasty format, the days of sitting at the edge of your couch and biting your nails are over. We have a tough eight-month desert to walk through ahead of us, but hey, the real NFL players are this close to kick-off and we will still enjoy football for another month and change, so you better get to it while it lasts! With the numbers in place and the games finished, it's time to wrap up the series and take a final look at who was who during this 2019 season.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the just-completed week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our preseason primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers won two writing awards and received 12 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. A big congrats to our very own Byron Lindeque (Golf) and Jordan McAbee (NASCAR) for both winning Writer Of The Year awards! Be sure to follow RotoBaller's analysis and advice all year long, and win more. Win More With RotoBaller!

 

2019 Best and Worst Rushers - NextGenStats

The season, at least for us fantasy nuts, is finally over. That is nothing good for our enjoyment of the fantasy game, but it is a time of calm and peace to enjoy the real NFL playoffs that we're also invested in. With all of the regular season numbers now in place, it is time to wrap up the NextGenStats series position by position.

Today I will go through the running back position and will provide a final update on how the league's rushers have done in the different metrics we've already tackled during the season. I will only show a small number of names for each category, present the correlation with the fantasy points averaged by the player, skip the gory details, and instead provide a new "combined" leaderboard at the end of the column.

Keep in mind also that I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column this time, "ruFP/15At", which is accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.

Note: The cutoff is set at 85 rushing attempts.

 

Efficiency

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: negative-28%

Leaders and Trailers:

Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: negative-2%

Leaders and Trailers:

Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 4%

Leaders and Trailers:

ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 81% / 87% / 34% / 88%

Leaders and Trailers:

Combined NextGenStats Leaderboard

To build this leaderboard I used every metric that is part of the NGS site and put everything together in a combined score I labeled "NGS" in the following table. The calculation of each player's NGS score is simple. I calculated where each player ranked for each metric, and then multiplied that rank for the correlation between that metric and my ruFP/G metric. Players ranked higher (closer to one) in each category will have lower scores for those categories. At the end, I added up each player's scores from all of the categories getting a single NGS score.

The lower the NGS, the better the player for fantasy as each category was already weighted given its correlation with the ruFP/G metric. Here are the results:

NGS Leaderboard Notes:

  • All hail Derrick Henry, the true rushing champion of the 2019 season! When it comes to producing on the ground, there has been no one like Henry in all fantasy football. That's correct, not even Christian McCaffrey will finish the year even close to him, and Henry scored an NGS more than two times lower than CMC... and virtually seven times lower than sixth-best Josh Jacobs!
  • Although the race was close, Henry got the edge over the field mostly in usage (No. 1 in attempts; 303), total yardage on the ground (No. 1 in rushing yards; 1,540), and touchdowns (No. 1 tied with Aaron Jones; 16). The only metric in which he wasn't inside of the top-five was TLOS (21st). CMC made the top-five in four of the seven categories.
  • Dalvin Cook finished the year averaging the third-most ruFP/G with 13.7 but he dropped to eight in the NGS leaderboard. He only finished inside the top-five in TDs and inside the top-10 in ATT and YDS, but fell to 16th or worse in every other category, hurting his score.
  • With rushing attempts, yardage, and touchdowns being very important and direct influencers of fantasy scorers, it makes sense to find some top-tier names at the bottom of the NGS leaderboard. Kerryon Johnson, James Conner, and even Damien Williams are all good rushers but they've seen little opportunities due to one reason or another, and their touchdown tallies have not surpassed the five scores in the best of cases.
  • Raheem Mostert's NGS score is quite high considering his low number of rushing attempts, something he was able to make up for with very efficient rushing (772 YDS and a league-leading 5.6 Y/A). Mostert would have been the best rusher in the NFL had every running back averaged 15 attempts per game.
  • Le'Veon Bell, on the other hand, is the rusher with the lowest NGS score to have the greatest number of attempts (245). He and Moster posted virtually the same yardage but Bell needed more than an extra 100 carries, which finished with him averaging 3.2 Y/A (second-worst in the NFL only over Peyton Barber's 3.1).
  • It's been a year to forget for David Johnson. He fell out of the Cardinals' rotation, could only rush the ball 94 times, his efficiency numbers were all horrid, and he ranked bottom-five in three of the seven NGS categories. Only Bo Scarbrough ranked worse in more categories (four of seven) although he was much more efficient when on the field and his ruFP/G (7.3) more than double Johnson's (3.6).
  • The five players with the most attempts were also the five players with the highest yardage. Only three of those, though, finished top-five in touchdowns. That proves the volatility of scoring: The six 10-plus TD scorers this season (order from more to fewer TDs) have ranked first, 15th, fourth, eighth, second, and 17th in attempts.
  • Only eight rushers have finished the season averaging 5.0 Y/A or more. Of those, only Henry and Mostert ranked in the top half of the NGS leaderboard. Henry alone was the only rusher of that group to average more than 8.0 ruFP/G (16.7).

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Player Comparisons
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bryson Stott4 hours ago

Smashes Pair Of Homers, Swipes Base
Khris Middleton7 hours ago

Can't Lift Bucks To A Win
Pascal Siakam7 hours ago

Flirts With A Triple-Double In Game 4
Tyrese Haliburton7 hours ago

Leads Indiana To Another Win
Myles Turner7 hours ago

Dominates Game 4
Joey Loperfido8 hours ago

On His Way To Houston
Tank Dell9 hours ago

In "Good Spirits" After Being Shot
Jamal Murray9 hours ago

Questionable For Monday Night
Luka Doncic9 hours ago

Struggles Shooting In Game 4
Bobby Portis9 hours ago

Ejected On Sunday
Kyrie Irving10 hours ago

Leads The Way On Sunday
James Harden10 hours ago

Steps Up In Game 4
Anthony Rizzo10 hours ago

Hits 300th Career Home Run
Paul George10 hours ago

Has A Strong Performance On Sunday
Connor Hellebuyck10 hours ago

Struggles Again Sunday
Nathan MacKinnon10 hours ago

Cale Makar Each Notch Two Points In Game 4
Derek Ryan11 hours ago

To Make Postseason Debut Sunday
Alexandar Georgiev11 hours ago

Stands Tall Sunday
Valeri Nichushkin11 hours ago

Notches Hat Trick Sunday
Vladislav Namestnikov11 hours ago

Takes Puck To The Head Sunday
Auston Matthews11 hours ago

Dealing With Illness
David Rittich11 hours ago

To Start Game 4
Nick Jensen12 hours ago

Rasmus Sandin, Nick Jensen Likely For Game 4
Casey DeSmith12 hours ago

Out For Game 4
Craig Kimbrel12 hours ago

Blows Save, Exits With Training Staff Sunday
Joel Embiid13 hours ago

Has Another Solid Game On Sunday
Jalen Brunson13 hours ago

Has A Record-Breaking Showing In Game 4
Bojan Bogdanovic14 hours ago

Injured In Game 4
Kawhi Leonard15 hours ago

Won't Play On Sunday
Kirk Cousins15 hours ago

Still Atlanta's Unquestioned Starting QB
Evan Carter15 hours ago

Absent On Sunday
Justin Jefferson16 hours ago

Vikings Optimistic Regarding Justin Jefferson's Contract Talks
J.J. McCarthy16 hours ago

Vikings Won't Rush J.J. McCarthy Into Starting Role
Travis Etienne Jr.16 hours ago

Jaguars Pick Up Fifth-Year Options On Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr.
Mitchell Robinson16 hours ago

Downgraded To Out
Joel Embiid16 hours ago

Active For Game 4
Damian Lillard17 hours ago

Officially Out For Game 4
Zac Gallen17 hours ago

Plans To Make His Next Start
Giannis Antetokounmpo17 hours ago

Out Again On Sunday
Randy Arozarena17 hours ago

Not Starting Against White Sox
Dylan Carlson17 hours ago

To Start Rehab Assignment Early Next Week
Avisaíl García17 hours ago

Avisail Garcia Placed On 10-Day Injured List
Yandy Díaz17 hours ago

Yandy Diaz Back In Lineup For Rays
J.D. Martinez17 hours ago

Taking A Seat
Martin Truex Jr17 hours ago

. Is One Of The Top DFS Plays At Dover
Tyler Reddick18 hours ago

Will Start Fourth At Dover
Michael McDowell18 hours ago

Fade Michael McDowell For the Wurth 400 At Dover
Joey Logano18 hours ago

Will Not Cause Much DFS Excitement At Dover
Noah Gragson18 hours ago

Is Noah Gragson A Sneaky Tournament Play At Dover?
Uros Medic19 hours ago

Returns To Win Column At UFC Vegas 91
Tim Means19 hours ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Vegas 91
Austen Lane19 hours ago

Winless In The UFC
Jhonata Diniz19 hours ago

Wins UFC Debut
Ryan Spann19 hours ago

Suffers Third Straight Loss
Bogdan Guskov19 hours ago

Gets Upset Win At UFC Vegas 91
Kyle Larson20 hours ago

the Favorite to Win at Dover Despite Qualifying 21st
Chase Elliott20 hours ago

a Core DFS Play at Dover
Alex Bowman20 hours ago

Always Strong at Dover
Chris Buescher20 hours ago

Has DFS Place Differential Upside at Dover
Ross Chastain20 hours ago

Has Been One of Best at Dover in Next Gen Era
Josh Berry20 hours ago

Has Top 10 Sleeper Potential at Dover
William Byron24 hours ago

Expect William Byron To Be A Top Favorite To Win At Dover
Kyle Busch1 day ago

Obtains The Pole For Dover
Ryan Blaney1 day ago

Scores Front Row Start At Dover
Jamal Murray1 day ago

Struggles In Game 4
Anthony Davis1 day ago

Has A Huge Game On Saturday
LeBron James1 day ago

Looks Good In Game 4
Zane Smith1 day ago

Unlikely to Contend After Practice Crash
Brad Keselowski1 day ago

Dover Not One of Brad Keselowski's Best Tracks
Ty Gibbs1 day ago

Likely to Contend if Joe Gibbs Racing as Fast as Expected
Austin Cindric1 day ago

Continues to Qualify Well, but Lacks Race Speed
Harrison Burton1 day ago

Unlikely to Duplicate Talladega Top Ten
NASCAR1 day ago

A.J. Allmendinger Decent at Dover but Not in Recent Years
NHL1 day ago

Jets Recall Axel Jonsson-Fjallby
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace Qualifies 16th For Sunday's Race At Dover Motor Speedway
Bobby McMann1 day ago

Progressing Well
Mathew Barzal1 day ago

Bags OT Winner Saturday
NHL1 day ago

Nick Robertson Moving To Fourth Line Saturday
William Karlsson1 day ago

Doesn't Skate, Expected To Play Game 3
Tyler Glasnow1 day ago

Exits Saturday's Game With Cramping
Auston Matthews2 days ago

Skates On Saturday
Michael McCarron2 days ago

Fined 2K For Goalie Interference
Trevor van Riemsdyk2 days ago

Ruled Out For Game 4
NHL2 days ago

Mavrik Bourque Could Make Postseason Debut Saturday
Spencer Stastney2 days ago

Out Week To Week For Preds
Igor Shesterkin2 days ago

Continues Winning Ways On Friday
Kyle Bradish2 days ago

Set To Rejoin Baltimore Rotation
Joey Gallo2 days ago

Headed To 10-Day Injured List With Shoulder Sprain
Pete Fairbanks2 days ago

Tests Have Come Back Clean On Pete Fairbanks
Troy Franklin2 days ago

Broncos Trade Up To Select Oregon Receiver Troy Franklin
Zac Gallen2 days ago

Diamondbacks Optimistic About Zac Gallen's Injury
Rafael Devers2 days ago

Back At Third Base, Masataka Yoshida Starting
George Springer2 days ago

Resting Against Dodgers
Max Muncy2 days ago

Gavin Lux Sitting Saturday
Yandy Díaz2 days ago

X-Rays Negative On Yandy Diaz's Hand
Jhoan Duran2 days ago

Making Another Rehab Appearance Saturday
Deebo Samuel2 days ago

49ers Set To Keep Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk?
Luke McCaffrey2 days ago

Selected By Commanders 100th Overall
Jalen McMillan2 days ago

Heads To Tampa Bay
Tip Reiman2 days ago

Cardinals Take Tip Reiman At No. 82
Roman Wilson2 days ago

Selected 84th Overall By Steelers
Blake Corum2 days ago

Rams Select Blake Corum With 83rd Pick
Jermaine Burton2 days ago

Taken At No. 80 By Cincinnati
Trey Benson2 days ago

Cardinals Select Trey Benson With The 66th Pick
Malachi Corley2 days ago

Jets Trade Up To Select Malachi Corley
Ben Sinnott2 days ago

Taken At No. 53 On Friday Night
Adonai Mitchell2 days ago

Colts Snag Adonai Mitchell At No. 52
Jonathon Brooks2 days ago

Panthers Trade Up To Select Jonathon Brooks
New Orleans Saints2 days ago

Saints Take Kool-Aid McKinstry At No. 41
Keon Coleman2 days ago

Bills Select Keon Coleman At Pick 33
Deebo Samuel2 days ago

Bills, Patriots Unlikely To Trade For Deebo Samuel
Alex Perez3 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Matheus Nicolau3 days ago

Returns To Action At UFC Vegas 91
Ariane da Silva3 days ago

Ariane Lipski Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Karine Silva3 days ago

Looks For Ninth Victory In A Row
David Onama3 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Jonathan Pearce3 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Uros Medic4 days ago

A Massive Favorite At UFC Vegas 91
Tim Means4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 91
Austen Lane4 days ago

Searching For First UFC Win
Jhonata Diniz4 days ago

Making UFC Debut
Bogdan Guskov4 days ago

Gets Ranked Opponent At UFC Vegas 91
Ryan Spann4 days ago

Looks To Snap Losing Skid At UFC Vegas 91
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Marvin Harrison Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

Updated 2024 Fantasy Football Rookie Rankings: Post-NFL Draft

What's up RotoBallers! It's always football season here, so let's have some fun now that the 2024 NFL Draft is officially in the books! In this article you'll find our NFL team's updated 2024 fantasy football rookie rankings -- the post-NFL Draft edition. Use these fantasy football rookies rankings for your rookie drafts, dynasty drafts, and... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 NFL Draft Instant Reaction: Round 1 Winners and Losers For Fantasy Football

The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is now in the books. It was a night full of surprises, with six quarterbacks going in the first 12 picks. Thursday really shook things up across the league, so it's time to parse through what happened and make some sense of things. Below are some of... Read More


Malik Nabers - Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

2024 NFL Draft Results - Malik Nabers Fantasy Football Outlook

After months of waiting, Malik Nabers finally has his NFL team. The LSU prospect was in contention for WR1 in the class and went only two picks after Marvin Harrison Jr. The Giants have desperately needed a playmaking receiver to elevate the offense. Nabers has all the speed in the world and a thick frame... Read More


Michael Penix Jr. - CFB DFS Picks, Daily College Fantasy Football, NFL Draft Rookies

2024 NFL Draft - Worst Draft Picks In The First Round

Some teams made some really good picks on Thursday night in the first round of the NFL Draft. Other teams...well, let's just say that some teams made some baffling decisions. These decisions could prove to be smart moves, or they could set these organizations back in a big way. Here are the worst picks from... Read More


Kirk Cousins - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

They Took Who? NFL Teams That Drafted The Wrong Player

The 2024 NFL Draft has come and gone and teams have made some major moves. While the draft can be a time for franchises to reload, it can also be a time to unload. It is also clear that some teams have no clear direction. Maybe it's drafting a position you don't need. Maybe it's... Read More


2024 NFL Draft: Biggest Winners and Losers of Round 1

Football never sleeps at RotoBaller! The 2024 NFL Draft is officially underway and our staff is already busy digging into Round 1. RotoBaller's Kyle Lindemann shares his biggest winners and losers from the First Round of the 2024 NFL Draft. Win MORE in 2024 with RotoBaller! Be sure to tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM... Read More


NFL Draft - 2024

2024 NFL Draft Grades For Every First Round Pick

As we exit the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, it's fun to offer up "instant reactions" to the impactful decisions teams made with precious first-round draft capital. Many expected this to be a draft that was jam-packed with quarterback and wide receiver selections, and Thursday night didn't disappoint, as QBs went off the... Read More


Dak Prescott - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Offseason Check - Fantasy Football Quarterback ADP Risers And Fallers (Based on Team Moves)

A couple of weeks ago our Joey Pollizze wrote an article on quarterback ADP risers and fallers based on QBs who were on the move, but today I'm here to write about QBs who had their ADPs change due to their team's moves in free agency. Some teams had fantastic offseasons that catapulted them into... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

Free UFL Betting Picks - Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Week 5

Well, that was a lot of surprises last week and a much-needed set of good showings for XFL teams against the USFL. In what seemed to be a horrible week for everyone, I started 2-0 after the Battlehawks game and fell to 2-6 by the end of the weekend. Ouch. I am going to have... Read More


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 5: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2024)

Entering Week 5 of the UFL season, just one team remains unblemished. Birmingham will be on the road against the 1-3 Houston Roughnecks on Saturday night. San Antonio travels within the state to take on the imperfect Arlington Renegades at the same time. The game of the week is on Sunday as St. Louis plays... Read More


Keon Coleman- Fantasy Football Rankings, College FB, WR, NFL Draft Sleepers

NFL Draft Predictions - Second and Third Round Mock Draft (2024)

Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft is in the books! The good news is all the draft action will pick back up tonight at 7 pm ET as Rounds 2-3 of the draft will begin. There are still plenty of good players on the board who could have a big impact on fantasy football... Read More


Mike Evans - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Blind Resumes – WR Edition

At this point in the NFL offseason, many fantasy football goers are not necessarily thinking about the fantasy season. However, it's never too early to start looking at stats and identify which players you want to target in drafts this summer/fall. Sometimes just getting an idea of where players are going could be really helpful... Read More


UFL DFS PICKS, FANTASY FOOTBALL, DRAFTKINGS, FANDUEL

UFL DFS Lineup Picks: DraftKings Daily Fantasy Fantasy Advice for Week 5

Welcome to Week 5 of the inaugural UFL season, RotoBallers! The Birmingham Stallions remain undefeated, and they'll take on the Houston Roughnecks in the only matchup this week with a spread of more than three points. The 3-1 San Antonio Brahmas will face off with the winless Arlington Renegades in a Texas showdown, the 3-1... Read More